Tour de France Stage 15 Preview

After the Vosges, now the Jura and into the Alps for the Tour de France with a summit finish.

Le Bilan d’Alsace: before the start Jordan Jegat told the media he couldn’t be bothered to attack as the mood in the breakaways was not good, nobody wanted to work fully and they feared being gobbled up by UAE anyway. It’s notable to see this expressed aloud.

The stage started under a downpour but a few kilometres later there was warm sunshine for the intermediate sprint won by Jasper Philipsen ahead of Mads Pedersen in his green jersey.

The Grand Ballon saw a group of 38 go clear including Tom Pidcock, fourth overall. If he was Thomas Piedcoque of Total or Tom van Pidkoek of Alpecin then he would have found plenty of others shaking their fists and swearing at him as it meant the bunch behind had to chase but he’s a big name rider so the others struggle to voice concerns.

Valentin Paret-Peintre was first over the climb and in time a move of seven was away with team mates Ben Healy and Richard Carapaz, team mates Einer Rubio and Pablo Castrillo, and twins Tobias Halland Johannessen and Anders Halland Johannessen. With Paret-Peintre sprinting for the win atop the Ballon d’Alsace he became the virtual mountains leader but the peloton led by UAE was only 90 seconds behind and picking up the pace.

The escapees were down to Tobias Halland Johannessen, Carapaz, Paret-Peintre and Rubio at the start of the Col du Haag and by the first ramp Tobias Halland Johannessen and Carapaz were clear. Then Carapaz. He had a minute’s lead and behind Decathlon-CMA’s Tiesj Benoot and Niclolas Prodhomme set the pace as Tom Pidcock was dropped and white jersey Juan Ayuso started to dangle at the back. Sep Kuss took over the pacing.

Onto the cycle path and Florian Lipowitz accelerated and Paul Seixas followed but the move was over in a flash and perhaps more about being in a good position on the narrow road lined with dense crowds.

Jonas Vingegaard led for a long time, stoically pulling the group as Remco Evenepoel was dropped. But at the “Owl Hairpin” Pogačar attacked and put daylight between everyone. Vingegaard set off in pursuit and Paul Seixas moved too a few metres behind the Dane and the two linked up at the top of the climb with Del Toro joining them. Behind Remco Evenepoel was back with Lipowitz and Ayuso and closing the gap.

Pogačar won the stage of course but it was a finish where lots was going on behind. Del Toro finished second, mopping up the six second time bonus while Paul Seixas was third. Vingegaard came into the finish with them but lost six seconds in the sprint. Adrift earlier, Evenepoel closed in to four seconds of the Dane.

The result of all this is Seixas moves up to fourth overall, 15 seconds behind Evenepoel, three seconds ahead of Ayuso which puts him in the white jersey, the youngest ever wearer. Here’s the GC:

Vingegaard is second but the amount of work he and his team are doing seems to be proving costly, his advantage on the other podium contenders has been eroded rather than bolstered but he’ll find the summit finishes to come more suitable. It’s all bunching up with second to seventh place overall spread across 80 seconds.

Jegat’s pre-stage interview was proved right but his idea is a self-fulfilling prophecy, a strong group going clear might have been able to take more time and UAE are intimidating but not full-strength.

Another winner of the day was the “new” Col du Haag and the Vosges. This mountain range has often delivered mid-mountain stages but the Haag is a focal point now, a new option for the Tour. Also huge crowds, including many from Germany, made this a popular success too.

The Route: 184km and 3,950m of vertical gain. There’s 22km to the unmarked Col de la Savine, all on big ring roads before descending into Morbier, known for its eponymous cheese and this year as a place where the men’s Tour visits in one direction and then the women visit in the other direction next month. The climb to Les Rousses goes into the Jura mountains via a wide main road.

Then comes a long descent but most of it not steep enough to freewheel as the course cruises down towards the Rhone valley. The climb out of Bellegarde to Léaz would be categorised on many other stages but not here amid all that is to come.

After 120km it’s time to get into position. Mont Salève is listed as 4.7km long but there’s 4km of climbing before to get to the official start, gentler than what is to come but awkward as positioning counts for plenty here. From the village of Le Coin onwards the road has double-digit gradients, seemingly never below 10% but often 12-14% and with steep hairpins where it pays to lead and take the line that suits as the inside can stall some riders and the outside is too long.

A tricky descent and then the pleonasm “Côte du Mont” is really the Col le Parc but nothing too hard.

The Finish: it’s back to the Plateau de Solaison climb which has featured in the Tour de l’Avenir once, three times in the Dauphiné/Aura Tour including last June and now the the Tour de France for the first time. Why? Why not as it is a very tough climb, uncharacteristically steep for the French Alps and a solid 30 minute climb. Also the President of the Haute-Savoie department, who is behind this stage and the time trial to come, has a house in Brison.

It’s steep from the start, the flat road of the valley seems to smash into the mountain and in one bend it pitches up and stays steep but in shaded woodland. The profile above doesn’t capture the flatter recovery section heading into the village of Brison mid-way out of the village it’s steep all the way up to the top.

The Contenders: with the rest day to come, Tadej Pogačar (UAE) can use his team to go for his fifth stage win. He’s obviously stronger than the field although it’s notable he’s taking more time out of rivals on the flat than straight summit finishes. Isaac del Toro, pictured on the Solaison climb, looked better on Stage 14 but was marking rather than making moves so the team’s best bet is all on for Pogačar.

Anyone else? Paul Seixas (Decathlon-CMA CGM) is a local of sorts as his grandparents live nearby and these roads have been his summer playground. He knows the climb but this only helps so much. It’s hard to get a win outright and if Pogačar is in the mood to gift or relinquish wins then it’s for Del Toro.

Jonas Vinegaard (Visma-LAB) returns to the club where he half-wheeled to the win ahead of Primož Roglič and with hindsight, a symbolic moment in his rise and Roglič’s gentle decline. Vingegaard’s not actually losing much time to Pogačar on the climbs so could be close.

The breakaway still has a chance as there are long stretches of road for a cohesive group to build up a lead, teams with ambitions for the finish can send a support rider. So Netcompany-Ineos may have plans for Thymen Arensman and these would be better suited if they can send Filippo Ganna or Josh Tarling up the road to help tow the move (perhaps with some Conti Gatorskin tires this tie). Likewise a Dylan Van Baarle for Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal-Quickstep), a Casper Asgreen for Richard Carapaz (EF) again. So far, all the names from yesterday’s stage so Tobias Halland-Johanessen (Uno-X) is a contender too. Fresher picks could include Michael Storer (Tudor), Harald Tejada, Ben O’Connor and Luke Plapp (Jayco) but they’re not moving as well.

Pogačar
Vingegaard, Del Toro, Arensman, Carapaz, VP-P

Weather: sunny, dry and 25°C. A light tailwind for the start but this will vanish once over the Jura.

TV: KM0 is at 1.20pm and the finish is forecast for 5.55pm CEST. If you want to tune for the Salève climb, start around 4.15pm.

135 thoughts on “Tour de France Stage 15 Preview”

  1. Whilst Pog is the obvious choice I wonder why he would bother today having deliberately targeted yesterday? Even the best have to spare their efforts and play the long game. Sure UAE can ride tempo and then see how it plays out, mopping up any opportunity to win that drops into their lap, but, aside from the obvious one extra win, why target this stage as well as yesterday? Pog already has four wins and I would reckon he targets at least one of the Alpe d’Huez finishes if not also the ITT (which would make six wins assuming they both came off). He only has so many matches himself. Also, as mentioned, its not really on the climbs where he drops Vingegaard (and the rest). After an intitial burst which gets him 15-20 seconds they usually climb at about the same speed. On the Tourmalet he got about 30 seconds (if I remember right) but got another 2 minutes plus on the descent and the drag to the line. Today there is no descent or drag so he has to win climbing – not impossible but a harder proposition.

    A long-winded way to say I see this being a breakaway win since any team GC team pulling for a win will simply see Pog happily snap up being towed to the line.

    • There was a comment on French TV suggesting that as it looks likely that Pog will have a tilt at the Vuelta this year, he wanted to gain as much time yesterday and today to allow him to ‘rest’ for the last week in preparation.

      • This tour has been quite weird, not for Pog’s dominance or the ‘ensuing’/’so called’ boredom (depending on your pov!) but more for the reporting?

        It seemed relatively obvious from Pog’s abandoned Vuelta plans last year to his light schedule preTour this year that he’s riding the Vuelta? I’m surprised more people didn’t take it as near confirmed in January and needed the Prince Albert story to treat it as a news flash?

        Same with Seixas being reported as a revelation yesterday? We’ve all been watching him for the last year highly aware he’s the coming force, what was so special about yesterday compared to LBL, Fleche, Basque? His true announcement was last year at the Euro’s, that ride was spectacular and now what we’re all waiting for is to know if he can last 3 weeks (which already seemed quite likely!) but we’ll need to wait till the final mountain stage next week to know if that’s the case. *(Aware people only start watching at the TDF so that likely explains this, but to us the INRNG cognigenti yesterday wasn’t a surprise?)

        Likewise all these stories and expectations around Jonas’ chances this year, Remco and even Pidcock in the last few days?

        As an armchair fan it never seemed credible that Jonas’ losses the last two years were solely down to his crashes, they were awful injuries and he’s still an all time great rider but – there seemed a clear gulf between him and the new Pog of 2024, so the hype coming into this year following his Giro success seemed a stretch and has proved to be so, which leaves me questioning the journalism? Remco had less hype, but it was there with stories of how lean he looked etc… this all seemed fanciful to my own armchair eyes as I’d say it’s fairly clear he’s on his way out as a GC rider, especially at the TDF, and this year we’re witnessing the end of his golden era? Any podium is a huge achievement, and he may well hold onto 3rd – but I doubt it as there will soon be more mountain finishes and he’s looked ropey on all so far (as he has done for years to this point) so I’d be surprised to see him with the top3 come AlpeDH… the writing’s seems to be on the wall with Remco and if it goes the way I expect, then I’d go further to feel pretty confident he won’t fulfil Red Bull’s ambitions, as I cannot see him beating Pog, Seixas, Jonas, Lipowitz, Del Toro and possibly even Ayuso in the coming years without huge luck. Finally Pidcock, I mean? He even said he’s unable to go with the best uphill, so his quick slide back down the rankings was par for the course? He’ll never be a true threat for the win at any Grand Tour that any of the above names ride.

        The real questions as far as I can see are all around Pog, Seixas and Del Toro?

        These are the only three riders who seem to being in actual conversation of TDF victories in the coming years whether it be on current or potential levels (unless we have crashes/illness etc opening the door to a third Jonas title, which would be great and highly deserved).

        The first question 2026 is throwing up is how much better than the young pretenders is Pog and can either catch him in the coming years?

        Del Toro would need to move teams or be given TDF leadership (with Pog taking a TDF sabbatical), but as it stands he’s significantly behind Pog and wouldn’t be a safe bet to best Jonas or others so any of the above feels unlikely? Personally, I’m yet to see proof that Del Toro is on course to catch Pog before his inevitable decline? If I had to put money on their trajectories in the coming years, right now I’m not seeing that Del Toro has the top level climbing ability to either challenge Pog or be given the keys to castle were Pog to take a sabbatical? We’re all hoping he’ll continue his progression to be a leading TDF contender but if I had to answer today, I’d actually fear there’s a chance he may continue in Pog’s shadow before being usurped by Seixas? Strangely, I can see him challenging Pog in one day races currently more than GT’s? I’m starting to get Jonas/Matteo Jorgenson vibes tbh, but with a shed-load more victories to come for Del Toro as he’s a far more talented rider!

        Then Seixas… who’s incredible… but what we all what to know is whether we will get the Pog vs Seixas face off sooner rather than later!!!! There’s no doubt he’s the coming force, and I thought his TT ride on Day1 was actually his standout moment so far, he was excellent in that final push. We also can’t really judge where his true potential lies as we simply don’t know. The only thing that’s clear right now is there’s a pretty sizeable gap between him and Pog, and I take a risk by saying I cannot see it being closed within the next few years? There’s even a chance we won’t see it closed at all if Pog retires early or in his early thirties.

        So yeah, 2026 big GC questions don’t yet have answers but from the race I’m watching, barring any mishaps in coming years it feels like this Pogacar might even have three more of these lightly contested TDF wins in him before we see something else? If I were a gambling man, I’d put 2029 down as the year Seixas takes the fight to him for real but I actually fear if Pog rides into the sunset around 30-32 years old, then there’s chance he’s never truly taken down by this current crop. Thankfully though, there’s always more riders to emerge so we can’t really know!

        I hope I’m wrong – but for those wanting an end to Pog’s World, I really cannot see it any time soon? I would actually bet that Pog is more likely to win all 5 monuments in a year before he’s beaten at the Tour if there’s not injuries/crashes. Crazy as that sounds.

        • I guess that the point is “everybody knows”, until they don’t…

          Those moments may occur more or less frequently, in some races it’s maybe easier than in others, but at the end of the day we had them at the TDF in 2020, 2022, 2024. So I guess people get used to reasonably (up to a certain point) expect the (relatively) unexpected. Obviously journos stress this aspect.

          Another hindsight factor concerns shades of gray. Nobody can expect Pidcock to race for a TDF win, or ever did, I think (or I hope), but the interesting GC question might be… will he be able to hold on a top 10 à la Guillaume Martin? He couldn’t climb with the best, either. Same for Remco. A podium on this course always looked a tough call, but how high his fight will eventually bring him?
          Guess journos can’t say to the public “hey, let me explain you why it’s so interesting to see if Pidcock can grab a 9th place” because generalist public in most countries doesn’t get that, so they use a lie of sort (“yup, 4th, podium at reach!”) in order to convey some form of truth – it can be compelling to watch as an athlete manages his set of natural qualities in order to get a result which is far from obvious, all while also trying to make it compatible with a conflicting task, the stage win.

          Remco could just race like Ganna, why not? But we’d lose a very valuable story. And that’s happening *precisely because* he doesn’t accept what’s so clear for everyone. So, in this case, too, there’s a pinch of true in what the press writes first and foremost to sell their product, of course.

        • @oldDAVE the crucial point about Seixas is he’s never ridden beyond a week-long stage race. So doing it yesterday was a big deal – news.

          • Sorry, yes I did say this but I understand why you’ve highlighted.

            I guess with Seixas we’re in a strange place as firstly I think EVERYTHING he does is a big deal, leading a team at his age and being on course for a top 5 is simply wild… but once you’re over that… we’re in week 2 not 3? So surely the celebrations should be held for the moment.

            Personally I guess I also do not find it hugely surprising he can last three weeks as his attributes didn’t seem like they’d falter since he’d already ridden last years Dauphine and L’Avenir solidly.

          • @oldDAVE week two in the biggest race in the world and with all the GT pressure on him, so yes it really is a big deal. I don’t think anyone is celebrating, just noting the remarkable performances. It could all fall apart this week but he’s already done enough to suggest the potential to win GTs soon.

  2. It says something about how dominant Pogacar is that a 38 second win following a visible grimace felt like a below par day for him yesterday.

    • To my eye it looked as though Pogacar was visibly pouring on the power it is just that he did it the old fashioned way of leaving it ti the last 2 km of theclimb.

  3. His post race interview sounds exactly as you describe. A possible opportunistic win, not a scorched earth strategy.

    Sidenote on Seixas: 19 years old, 2 weeks of crazy hard racing in the heat and he matches one of the best climbers of all time on a super hard climb ?! He’s got us all French cycling fans on the edge of our seats. As Jacky Durand said yesterday, it’s a happy thing he’s French, because otherwise there would be some serious eyebrow frowning action… Go Paul ! Sorry for the chauvinistic view. I’m also warming up to Remco a lot. Was always fed up by his drama queen antics, but he raced with guts yesterday. I don’t get the complaints on the GC so far, this is a very interesting race IMHO.

    • I agree that Remco is riding with guts. He impressed with his efforts to come back after getting dropped. I think he is motivated to stay ahead of Lipowitz. His long altitude camp and weight loss have probably helped.

      • Considering Remco’s weight and the fact that he absolutley destroys everyone in a TT makes is seem like he should do better in these mountain stages. Without knowing the exact numbers it’s difficult to know but IMO it could be one of three things. 1. Simple aerodynamics (I don’t really buy this). 2. His physiology is better lends itself to a one hour effort instead of a four hour effort (possible). 3. Mental (likely)

        • Add that he’s often looked strong in Classics and I think that’s more about recovery (and mental).

          To delve into subtler aspects, maybe it’s about biomechanics, too. When you ride uphill the muscle system works differently than on flat terrain, the way you breath is also different.

        • I wouldn’t underestimate how much Remco’s superior aerodynamics contribute to his TT prowess: his W/kg may be significantly lower than his GC rivals’, but his W/CdA far higher. Backing this up, several riders have said that being on Remco’s wheel doesn’t give the same draft benefit as for other riders. I’d love to see actual data on this.

          I think mental and physical resilience is also a factor (less ability to recover deep into a GT), so let’s see if he’s improved that this year.

    • Yep I agree.

      Maybe I forgot the excitement he’s bringing in the above and it’s cumulative – I really like Seixas, I’m just itching for the true Pog showdown!

  4. Question: does anyone have a clue what Visma are trying to do? Its plausible JV does not finish on the podium here and their tactics have been very questionable. Example: yesterday they had guys in the front who did nothing and then went backwards when scooped up. Then JV himself pulls on the Col du Haag – but to what end? He wasn’t really attacking. OK, Jorgenson is feeling rough for crash and sickness reasons but they also have I think four guys who also did the Giro? Is that good team planning or setting yourself up to fail? Its seems like the way they have planned and executed this Tour is somewhat bizarre.

    • In reply to a similar question on the yesterday’s stage preview… it’s not obvious. Is Vingegaard riding in a way to secure second place? Or are the team still formatted as if they want to win the race? The problem was either way Vingegaard didn’t get much out of the stage, losing time to Del Toro and Seixas, not gaining much on Evenepoel etc. He also said he didn’t recon the Col du Haag so got caught out a bit. Vingegaard will find the terrain coming up suits more but even today needs to gain time on Evenepoel ahead of Tuesday’s TT.

      • Perhaps he just pulled because he wanted to try Pogacar? Vingegaard came to win the race (albeit surely knowing his chances are slim), not to finish on the podium, didn’t he?

        I may be wrong; i.e. Vingegaard may be riding the Tour because of necessity to get visibility and help attract new sponsors.

        Visma’s Tour is definitely a bit weird. They seem to be hit hard by WvA’s absence, lacking plan B. Also, it seems weird Vingegaard let himself to be surprised by a climb this blog introduced in advance. He had a small matter of Giro to do during spring, but still, he should have come prepared.

      • I’m still scratching my head at Vinny and Visma’s tactics (or maybe lack of them?). Perhaps he’s set to announce a shock move to UAE as an astronomically paid super deluxe mountain rider for new leader Pog?!!!!

        • I know you are only joking but if we are in the rumour business now then maybe its as a support rider for UAE’s new 13 million Euro recruit, Paul Seixas?!! (This is a rumour being put around rather than one I have made up.)

      • Yeah, the only thing I could think of was that they wanted to wear down the UAE support cast. When Politt stopped after 70k of chasing, Felix G was making the bunch approach very quickly and nobody was really driving the group in front.
        It sort of worked because by the time they got to Haag it was down to Pog and Del Toro, also because Yates seemed to have an off day. It also didn’t matter one bit to the outcome.

        • Yates didn’t look completely cooked to me. Looked more like they told him to sit this one out, as it would be enough. Maybe to spare him for the next day?

    • “Then JV himself pulls on the Col du Haag – but to what end?”

      Sepp Kuss said to Wielerflits that they want to take away as much as Pogi’s explosive burst in last part of the climb as possible by keeping the tempo high.

      • That makes some sense. Also if they keep the pace high enough that Pogačar only goes in the last 2k, not the last 10k, they lose a bit less time when he does go.

        And they tire out/try to drop those just below Vingegaard on GC.

      • True and, as Nick says, it makes a lot of sense, still when you see Kuss going “for a high pace” but not gaining anything on Carapaz, or even losing some seconds, you can really sense the difference until now from previous iterations of the Visma team.

    • I think Visma are seriously missing Wout. I’m also trying to understand why they left Laporte at home.

      There have also been a couple of occasions where they failed in their plans to send riders up the road – I saw Campanaerts in no man’s land at least once.

      I’m hoping Tim Rex continues his development. He was immense in the Giro.

    • I see few potential reasons
      1. They really believe they can still win the Tour and not by DNF by Pogacar, but cracking him or somehow gaining time, so they cannot allow the buffer to grow more by e.g. letting Tadej gain another 2-3 minutes by playing chess with other riders from top5
      2. They are just saying that they believe in win, but really it is just desparate attempt not to loose face in front on (potential?) sponsors, so Dane is trying to keep the gap as small as possible, but with this race tactics he loose on finishes. But also he should gain some time on guys like Evenepoel or Lipowitz in 3rd week if everything goes right.
      3. Visma doesn’t care about losses now, so they just try to cook others (except Tadej ofc) in 2nd week to have easier task in 3rd week. Fatigue is building and historically Jonas had best last week of Tour. Afair it was also their tactics from 2023, when they tried to make race as hard as possible for Pogacar, to crack him due to interrupted preparation for that race, and it finally happened in 3rd week. So maybe it is somehow similar tactics, but adjusted to different opponents.

      Is it the best strategy? I doubt, but for sure they have more data and were historically very successful on that field.

  5. Yesterday was Pogačar’s 500 day of racing as a pro, and he has won 125 times – 25% hit rate. (Yes, I know there are slight vagaries around overall GC in stage races – but still, wow).

    Looking at how he has been gaining time on the flat as much as uphill, would anyone bet against him in the TT? I know Evenepoel ought to be the favourite, but deep into a stage race does funny things – so you’ve got the rider who in a one-off is the best time trial list in the world, against a decent time trailer who has seemingly the best recovery in the world facing off in a race after two weeks. Close to call, I suspect.

  6. Sidenotes:
    – Another tragicomic puncture for Ineos!

    – Pogi, too, confirmed that he felt that knowing the climb in detail, unlike Vingegaard, was an advantage. Maybe Remco had had a good recon, too?
    Pogi also said that he couldn’t show his hand for today but that as a team they see this stage as an especially complicated one.

    – On this subject, it would have been entertaining if Decathlon had isolated the captains thanks to their team forcing on some penultimate climb instead of the very last one. Of course, they played it right, don’t misunderstand me – throwing in a chaos factor didn’t make sense with Seixas feeling great, plus a single captain as him should have faced some couples in Lidl, UAE, Red Bull. Yet, it would have been peculiar to watch that on some rolling to flat intermediate section, because the final climb instead just put everybody into his own slot. Maybe something to hope for today?
    As I had already said, I’m not very convinced for now by the global strength of team UAE, and I’m far from surprised by Pogi wanting to keep Del Toro close for tactical reasons, friendship aside.

    – This TDF looks increasingly drawn for Pogi, save for the final two mountain stages perhaps, or even just the last one, and maybe today (but not even much so). Even if he had been left a bit back on Tourmalet or Haag, the terrain after that, be it many kms or just a few, incredibly fits his skills… which also explain the – for now – huge Tour which Remco has been having despite being well behind several competitors in pure climbing skills. Of course, I can see him falling down in GC soon, maybe as soon as today and surely later on. A bit “unfair” that he’s got so little ITT to make the most of his abilities, but that’s been the TDF for years now.

    – For some unknown psychological reason within my mind – probably fanboy “scaramanzia”? – this year I have sort of an allucinatory “sensation” about Pogi possibly losing a (relatively) big chunk of time on some stage. A sensation I didn’t have as much in 2024 *after PDB* or in 2025, even, despite the modest showings in the second part of the race (then, I felt it was a deliberate attitude). Can’t really say why, he looks to be doing what he wants in relative control while the rest are going all-in all the time. Perhaps just the old unreal idea about him going “too much” and hybris being punished or whatever. The above is made even less probable by his most credible if not single rival, Vingegaard, being short on serious team support – and the effect is manifest for now.

    – “Despite Pogi” (I really think… thanks to Pogi, too), GC stages have been very good for now, unlike most of the rest which sits between “fine” (MvdP, Pedersen, Pidcock, Schmid) and “poor” (some sprints were bordering amateur).

    • This is a very way out idea but could Visma have identified Pog’s only weakness being Pog and his appetite for stage wins either for himself or team-mates so they’re helping him to tire himself out to pounce in the third week (sort of ‘rope a dope’, although of course Pog is now dope)?

  7. The Giro della Val d’Aosta is being races this day, today being the last decisive mountain stage.

    As in the Giro Baby before, I’m not being hugely impressed by anyone (Finn apart). Sort of pure climbers coming, which is good news, including a talented Brazilian which is nice, Sparfel at the Giro promising as an all around talent (probably one for Classics, at the end of the day)… little more Van Kerckhove and Rafferty proved, if anything, that they need more time (no problem, rightly so). My sensation, for now, is that this generation is very different from the previous batch. Once again, it’s not easy to differentiate between general processes (“athletes are ready earlier and earlier”) or contingent combinations of factors including pure chance.
    Of course from my POV the above doesn’t imply at all Finn, Nordhagen, Widar, Tuckwell or younger Omrzel etc. will necessarily have a better pro career than “painters” Matisse, Bock, Bravo and Ramírez, just that some talent became very obvious earlier on (I didn’t name Seixas in the first list because we already know he’ll have a better career than the rest 😉 ).
    Maybe having Seixas among them raised the bar for everybody as now Pogi does for some and him and Vingo mutually did with each other.

  8. I’m just catching up news of the doping control story through commentary of today’s stage. For those not aware, Vingegaard was apparently woken at 2am for a doping control and Pogacar was woken at 5am. Vingegaard got back to sleep but Tadej did not and listened to music.

    Seems totally unacceptable to me as a matter of simple procedure. There have to be times in the middle of a race when the doping control people cannot interrupt riders engaged in a current race. (I would suggest no testing between 11pm and 7am.) Would it really matter to them if they turned up at 7am? What if tiredness due to lack of sleep in a rider causes an accident in the subsequent stage?

    • I agree it is ridiculous that it came this far but the degree to which people have gone in the past to fool doping controls is ridiculous too. Establishing guaranteed windows invites the cheats to make use of them. Given how critical it is to have believable outcomes, I think the goal justifies the means here. It sucks for the riders but as long as the burden is divided somewhat equally, it won’t have much influence on the results. If you are clean, it must be a reassuring thought that your competitors are being checked so thoroughly.

      • The logical conclusion of what you are saying is all riders woken up in the middle of the night. That does not make the race safer. And given both were apparently woken up it means they were asleep and not up to nighttime monkey business. Like Matteo Jorgenson, I would be furious if it were my team leader being compromised. Because losing recovery time mid Tour IS compromising their performance.

      • Old debate, but doping controls grant little to nothing. They’re just a tool to make pressure or deliberately kicking somebody out.

        And aren’t we in the passport era, by the way?

        • To expect self-appointed police to justify their nonsense is unlikely. But you make a point. Passports are supposed to be a means of constant monitoring against rider specific benchmarks. If the argument is cheats will use non-testing periods to cheat then what’s the passport for? And surely cheats cheat by using something that evades current testing anyway? The police are always playing catch up. None of which justifies compromising racers mid-race whoever they are.

        • I think that top riders and well-funded teams know the passport rules and how to stay – maybe just – within permitted tolerances. The thresholds have also to be fairly lax to avoid any risk of false positives. Only the rash are caught out.

          • Of course, so what’s the meaning of night testing? Several “surprise tests” were later (normally years later) proved to be fake. At the same time, more often than not endemic doping didn’t produce positive results. That’s essentially why academic research on the subject suggests a wholly different approach. But whatever!
            I just hope for the sake of the sport that no institutions gets hasty, so the current truce goes on just recurring to the well-known strategies to calm things down and level them around. À la tennis.

          • At least some of the top sports-science professors who have worked on anti-doping, who have been funded by WADA, some who have sat on WADA technical committees, are also consultants for various sports stars and teams in athletics and cycling.

            There is a whiff of (at least) “gameskeepers who sometimes consult for the people buying the meat from the poachers” around some in the anti-doping world, sadly – at least, from the glance I had of that worl. Perhaps that whiff is coincidental and means nothing, or perhaps it does mean something.

      • And what were the teams supposed to do about that if they thought it unacceptable? Refuse to take part? It is, to coin a phrase, a fait accompli.

    • The anti-doping rules specify 6am to 11pm as regular testing hours; an athlete can request/or leave the Whereabouts form for earlier. But if there are “valid grounds” say the rules then it can be done at any time. This is why it’s rare.

      The ITA, the agency which does the testing, declared earlier this month “Testing during the Tour de France will be targeted and may occur at any point during the three-week race, not just at stage finishes”.

      • And now Vingegaard has crashed. Did being woken at 2am help? Impossible to directly connect the two things, of course. But no one who knows anything about pro sport and recovery thinks it helped with his concentration. Another victory for clean cycling.

      • From the televised views, it looked like a dangerous turn, more so than most dangerous turns.

        Could the crew responsible for creating the route be considered at all responsible for not making that turn safer?

        After Vingegaard’s crash?

        • Marc Reef (Visma DS) said in an interview that according to Campenaerts, the motorbike in front of the bunch braked very suddenly and this caused a chain reaction. Watching back the overhead footage I’m not sure what to think of that, since the moto is at least 20m in front of the first rider. I haven’t seen footage of what happened just before the roundabout.

          Looking at the footage I can find, the odd thing is the route they took. They were basically taking the first exit on the roundabout, but they went left of the center divider, so you make a turn that starts wider, but you then need to go left a bit to avoid the divider, and then a super sharp tightening right-hander, which is a very tricky type of turn. Doubly so because there were cobbles on either side of the tarmac. Setting up higher and then taking the inside line to the right of the divider would make a much smoother line. My theory is that the late braking motorbike accidentally took this line and the Visma rider at the front (Campenaerts?) followed, and the rest was just an accident waiting to happen.

          • Motorbikes just can’t get through tight corners anywhere near as fast as bicycles can – anyone who’s followed motorbikes down a twisty descent no doubt can testify to that. I can well believe that a motorbike 20 metres ahead caused a problem for the peloton behind – especially when you add in the ripple effect.

        • Not much use now, but one thing not seen yet in all the inquisition pieces online is that “splitters and roundabout in downhill” at KM158.7, ie the roundabout in question, were in the daily safety bulletin issued the evening before.

          Too much for riders to memorise as there multiple warnings for each stage but it’s helpful for teams to tell riders over radio during the stage. Race radio usually reads these out as the convoy approaches as a reminder, can’t replay it to know if this was the case yesterday.

          Like many accidents it’s often a cascade of events.

    • Some doping products (if taken in small quantities) only show positive in doping tests for a few hours after being taken. So the only way to ensure absolutely no doping by the top riders is to have tests during the night (or for it to be a credible threat). Its unfortunate, but it needs to be part of the testing environment. Both team bosses acknowledged that the testing was reasonable.

  9. Gutted for Jonas.

    It really feels like when it rains it pours for him in recent years – he will always be able to say he beat the best that’s ever raced but I doubt that’s a consolation when he’s so far from the top and crashing out while trying to protect his second place.

    • I really thought Vingegaard had a strong chance of winning today’s stage, with it being such a steep climb that should have really suited him. This is why I couldn’t understand all the people saying after stage 6 that the Tour was over, when it could just as easily be Pogacar crashing out at any time.

      • This is also the best day for Remco in years. I firmly expect a bad day for him to come but great to see him not sliding again, I did not expect this even if I’m still fairly confident in above assessment.

        Although I wish Quinn Simmons would get the Tour win he deserves one day!

        Also total aside but it’s completely crazy to see a Yellow jersey riding to support a domestique’s bid for the podium. Has that ever happened before??? It’s bizarre.

          • Threw it away? Are we supposed to believe Pog could not have ridden away from Remco and del Toro with 3 or 4kms to go if he had wanted to? My view is that after the crash of Jonas he did not want to win. It would be a terrible look. So he decided to help his team mate instead. Fair play to Remco but that’s a bit of a gimme once del Toro didn’t have it in him.

          • @EP1–fair enough. I went for a ride after posting and thought “ahh, right. Pog didn’t want to win no matter what b/c of JV’s crash.”

        • Everything would have been different with JV there. Such a strange situation there at the end, and shocking how poorly Trek performed. I’m all in for Seixas now!

  10. @Ep1 Pog could have pulled away easily at any point apart from the sprint. His problem was the balancing act of putting del Toro in the white jersey and not dropping him. I don’t think Pog wanted to win today because of Vinny’s crash and abandon.

      • Cycling News has gone with the headline Remco ‘outwits’ Pogacar… another one to add to my list of bizarre reporting this Tour.

        I really feel like they’re treating us like idiots at times but I don’t want to sound like an old man ‘the media’ type person!

        Still, congrats to Remco, I was happy to see him win.

          • It was a fantastic performance from Remco and he’ll consolidate his position in the TT, but Pog was CLEARLY nursing Del Toro to the finish. Major Visma 2023 vibes. As gutted as I am to see Jonas leave the race, his absence makes stages 19 and 20 wide open.

        • I’ll say this for Remco: he still had to be there to earn the win. But I don’t believe for a second he “outwitted” Pogi or that Pogi was somehow helpless to beat him. Pogi wasn’t looking to win today. If it had come down to him and Jonas he would have taken it on but that aside he only needed to be in the wheels anyway. Events conspired to leave him trying to set up the gift for IDT. I’m sure he was shocked that Jonas was out and didn’t want to take advantage.

        • As (I think) you said the other day, I’m starting to come around on Remco. Watching his post-race interview, he was quite verbose and excited. I think he wears his heart on his sleeve and says things honestly, which can often not play well in subsequent articles/discussion.
          But that ride yesterday was studly. He did great.

      • Well, he did. In the sprint!

        I still think his ride merits applause for the number of GC climbers he was ahead of.

        But let’s not get carried away. Pog could have pulled away easily (apart from the sprint) and Remco still needs to prove he can back it up and not have a bad day in the high mountains.

  11. I really wonder what went down in the conversation Remco and Tadej had during the climb. Apparently, Del Toro asked Pogacar to please not drop him. My bet is Pogi then said to Remco something along the lines of: “If you try to ride away I will hunt you down and take the stage myself. Stay in my wheel and the two of you can contest the sprint”

  12. Middle of the night Dope tests, If I were Tadej there would be no diplomacy about it I would have hands round necks! totally uncalled for and disrespectful. Hinault and Fignon would not have been meek and mild about it.

    • I actually have no issue with it although maybe it should’ve been done tonight before rest day rather than before a meaningful stage (I suspect that might be pointless though depending on what they’re trying to catch – but with cycling’s history it’s good for the authorities to keep the pressure on even if it’s performative. One night time visit to Pog in the Tour in seven years doesn’t seem that bad.

      • +1 Especially considering the level of dominance, it’s very important for cycling to show that they’re serious about clean sport.

        • Agree with the right to test anytime.
          But at least with 5am your day is done in 12 hours.
          2am is more like MVDP’s disturbance at Worlds (but without the protracted police interrogations).

      • Some doping products have an extremely short window in which doping control will show a positive (a few hours after being taken). If anyone is doping, they would want to do it before a big stage and not before a rest day. It is unfortunate, but this really was the time to do the night-time test.

        I happen to believe both riders are probably clean. But I can understand the logic of testing them in the way they did. And a least both were tested, making things “”equal”.

    • It will be interesting to see if any other teams have mysterious fire alarm activations at inconvenient times over the next week.

  13. I don’t know if the wording is accurate, INRNG will undoubtedly correct me if not but this is a direct quote from the Guardian this morning,
    While nocturnal tests are highly unusual, the UCI’s rules state that tests outside the normal hours of 6am to 11pm may be allowed if there is a “serious and specific suspicion that the rider may be engaged in doping”.
    Who knows what that means and the UCI are unlikely to make their reasons public.

    • Is that from the guardian?

      It’s funny – cycling podcast discussed this yesterday and were at pains not to draw that conclusion as it isn’t their reading of the rules.

      I’m a bit confused a bit now, but did not take that insinuation from these tests, especially as it was both P & V not just one?

      • I should also add that, including the BBC, all UK reporting on cycling outside of cyclingnews (and even them sometimes!) and the great INRNG, is abysmally poor – but the guardian does have Fotheringham though which is why it surprises me? I just went and read the article (not by Fotheringham) and that line does stick out considering soon after the same article informs you how further cyclists have been disturbed during their sleep recently? And no mention of this part of the rules was made in doping authorities statement yesterday. That line reads like a clear insinuation in the article when the all the rest of the context points to somewhere else? Pog talking about it so freely and openly for example doesn’t suggest he was taking this reading of it?

        Cycling Podcast highlighted that the anti doping controls had been shaking things up this year and taking a different approach overall so I just saw it as their change of tactics, which could be for any number of reasons, (new regime etc) so it’s not worth drawing conclusions as yet?

        • “Changing things up” and making testing unpredictable ensures that dopers do not learn how to circumvent the doping controls. This is a good thing. Ultimately, it will give us more confidence that the sport is clean (or we will discover someone has been cheating).

    • Note it’s not the UCI at work here but the ITA, the agency which has taken over testing from the UCI. But the rules all mimic the WADA Code. There’s also French law which overlaps that that anything intrusive, eg a house arrest should not happen at night unless necessary, eg police raid but is specific in the sports law that an anti-doping test should not happen at night unless there’s a “serious and consistent suspicion” (translated).

      But it’s not as polemical as it sounds. If the ITA wanted it could probably argue suspicion on the grounds of a rider who is leading the Tour, leads the UCI rankings etc is already under surveillance.

      As mentioned above, the ITA issued a press release ahead of the race to say what they were doing and most of it is a PR announcement but it does say “Testing during the Tour de France will be targeted and may occur at any point during the three-week race, not just at stage finishes”.

      Pogačar’s quote about it being “inhuman” gets all the headlines but his full quotes and those of Vingegaard too give more context and are more nuanced.

      • Sorry, my mistake stating UCI not ITA.
        Also just to clarify this is the section I cut & pasted from the article.
        “While nocturnal tests are highly unusual, the UCI’s rules state that tests outside the normal hours of 6am to 11pm may be allowed if there is a “serious and specific suspicion that the rider may be engaged in doping”.”

        But I guess you’re right, leading the TdF may be deemed sufficient enough suspicion.

      • Thank you for this clarification.

        It’s fast becoming the tour of poor journalism for me.

        You had sense yesterday from everyone’s reaction that this was no polemica beyond the timing of the tests, so it’s disappointing for a good newspaper to word their article in such a way that it draws a clear insinuation. Lars But de Cloche read exactly what they wrote, and interpreted the meaning as it was intended so glad it was posted to get the INRNG take and proper explanation.

        • @oldDAVE you could have just read INRNG’s post at 3.56pm yesterday:

          “The anti-doping rules specify 6am to 11pm as regular testing hours; an athlete can request/or leave the Whereabouts form for earlier. But if there are “valid grounds” say the rules then it can be done at any time. This is why it’s rare.

          “The ITA, the agency which does the testing, declared earlier this month “Testing during the Tour de France will be targeted and may occur at any point during the three-week race, not just at stage finishes”.

          • True, but as ever the devil is in the détail.
            Big difference in my book between “valid grounds”
            and “serious and consistent suspicion”.
            Just to clarify I have no interest in stirring up a he is/not doping (that never ends well) but I am interested to know if these tests were targeted for a reason.
            For now, I think our host’s voice of reason makes the most sense.

  14. There are multiple stages of sleep and the deep sleep stage is most important for recovery. Waking them up in the middle of the night is interfering in the result.
    Evenopoel looked like a goose doing his victory celebration.

    • You mean he looked “silly, goofy, or a bit foolish” celebrating his – I take it in your and most other cycling fans’ opinion – gifted victory?

      (Lots of non-native English speakers reading (and writing) and sometimes idiomatic expressions that the writer assumes are familiar to everyone really aren’t.)

    • I kinda don’t begrudge him a victory celebration?

      Yes it was a tiny bit of a hollow victory but, he had actually sprinted and had no real idea of what was happening with Pog in terms of the final push for the line, it’s fine for the adrenaline to kick in and to celebrate? He surely wouldn’t dispute that Pog could’ve dropped him at will beforehand, but that’s not Remco’s problem – it’s fine that he can have his cake and eat it without getting too bogged down in what was going on with UAE.

      As a fan if I’m honest I felt a tiny bit cheated by watching someone ride so within themselves to help a lesser teammate. It did wonders for the Pog brand and to keep his good guy image afloat despite the growing anger at his repeat wins but I don’t really switch on to watch the best acting as sherpa to a teammates podium bid? I want to see him in full flight! If I’d driven all the way to the road side on that climb and missed a chance of seeing the greatest in his prime put the hammer down I’d be very disappointed.

      But – he’s won enough so this is a mute point and in the long term it’s a good bit of media management so I can’t begrudge.

      Although we should probably note that in any other scenario – giving up time to rivals would be sacrilege, given there will always be the scenario of a crash or similar robbing a leader of time and full capacity so they may end up ruing the seconds given away… I guess here that’s just a little fanciful given his cushion and total dominance of the sport. You never know though!

      Yesterday felt huge for Remco, and we’ve seen many occasions where even a pyrrhic victory can spur on a career so I’m happy for him. I’ve been very vocal here that I see his GC leadership career as being at the start of a downward spiral, and I still think this will be the case, but more rides like yesterday and I’ll have to eat my words. I can imagine after all the recent climbing issues for Remco his performance must have felt euphoric as it’s his best ride for a number of years so good for him, celebrating even that seems fair enough to me.

      Plus he now has a photo to frame where he’s beating the best rider most of us have ever seen, even though it might not give the full context who really cares? Get it framed and enjoy the memory Remco!

      • I think you nailed it here.
        Hell, if Pogacar can simultaneously win the TdF AND help a teammate to podium, all the better. It just adds a degree of difficulty to his feat, so chapeau.

      • @oldDave I think the bigger point for Remco was all the GC climbers he left behind – it’s not something he’s nailed before – and throw being with Pog and del Toro at the finish (however much Pog had the handbrake on) was just the icing on the cake. He still needs to back it up and avoid his usual bad day in the high mountains (and I say this as a Remco fan).

    • This is my concern. As Robbie McEwen stated after the stage, absolutely no one can say or prove that Vingegaard’s interrupted sleep did not contribute to his crash. Even just that miniscule percentage point of concentration missing could be enough to contribute. In layman’s terms it could be construed as tampering with the result.

      It also deeply concerns me that the authorities are supposed to need special reason or suspicion to test at night. In my mind that would mean something like a tip off or adverse finding that warranted extra-curricular investigation. Simply being one and two in a race would be an unbelievably poor excuse in my mind and not least because in at least Tadej’s case he is tested every day as the leader anyway. It does not surprise me at all that there has been widespread disquiet at these tests and and words like “human rights” have been bandied about.

      PS When are Jannik Sinner, Lionel Messi, Rory McIlroy, Victor Wembanyama and Keely Hodgkinson going to get a 2am door knock? Or is it only the cyclists who get screwed?

      • A tip-off or specific suspicion might be possible for one of Pogacar and Vingegaard. But it would be extremely odd if they were both facing serious allegations suddenly and on the same day. It seems likely, to me, neither have any specific allegations against them, and this is just part of the testing regime for the best two riders in the peloton. And they were both tested to make things fair.

    • Indeed.
      And if one interprets the rules to the very letter, the tests also cast shade on Pog and Vinnie by implying that they were targeted for very specific reasons. That may, or may not, be true but in the heightened atmosphere of a Tour it’s clumsy. And as someone else had said, waking up athletes in the small hours is very definitely interfering with their recovery. Why not do it before the rest day?

    • Which is strange when he’s a 19 year old who has never raced this far before in his life yet somehow he is in the top 5 onthe GC. If that’s not worth a 2am door knock then what is? 🙂

    • Based on the interview he gave to Danish TV in the evening, no question, he seemed much more positive than I would have thought.

      • Good to hear although I wouldn’t blame him if he was looking for a change of career. But I guess it’s just part of the job

    • @Andrew You’re taking that way too far. It was a broken collar bone – very painful for sure but nowhere near being in the same league as his horror crash.

      • @KevinR sure, probably am overstating it. Just thinking of how hard it seemed to be to come back from his last crash but that was much worse. I’m just on a different level, anytime I come off I just want to curl in a ball for a couple of months!

  15. Shocked and disappointed by Vingegaard’s crash.

    Remco and Pogi showed how you need to set up the finale when you have reached an agreement.

    Were the controls by ITA or AFLD (French national antidoping organisation)?
    I’ve read some journalistic sources reporting the latter. Does anybody now for sure?

  16. Re: Remco, I have no doubt in my mind that the last 5km of yesterday’s stage would have gone quite differently if Jonas was pushing the pace, so who knows what Remco would have been able to do. However, we do know that Remco beat everyone except Pog fair and square, and put serious time into several good riders, most notably Ayuso. To me that is a huge step forward. Looking ahead to stages 19 and 20, it appears certain that the podium battle will be an all-out war with time gaps in the multiple minutes. Pog will not be able to hold Del Toro’s hand through those moments, and Seixas, Ayuso and Lipo will push themselves to their limits (and possibly beyond). If Remco stays on the podium through that, I would find that as impressive as anything he’s done.

    • Much agreed. Paradoxically, it seems that you suggest that without Pogacar’s main challenger, the race has gotten more interesting somehow!

      I’ll be curious to see what Pogacar does in the mountains in week 3–if he’ll keep working for del Toro. If he’ll show Remco what his real strength is… Pog is too circumspect or diplomatic to say he burned himself out working for del Toro or that he could have beaten Remco had he ridden for himself.

      • Without Jonas, the race will be less competitive from an athletic performance perspective. However, I’m confident that he would have eventually distanced himself from everyone other than Pog, so in terms of competition for the podium I think his absence does open up the race somewhat. Whether that is “more interesting” is a subjective thing, especially as it leaves Pog free to do whatever he wants without Jonas/Visma there to push him, which distorts the race in a way. With or without Jonas, the standings at the end of the TT were always going to be fascinating, and will have a big influence on how the rest of the race goes. Purely for my own interest, I’m hoping that Seixas has the TT of his life.

        • There’s also the change in Visma’s dynamic: no more pulling for Jonas, chasing stages, etc. and how will that impact UAE’s work in the peloton…Visma sure pulled a lot yesterday and on other days…I wonder if that might have knock-on effects for del Toro’s pursuit of the podium and Pogacar’s willingness to help him.

  17. surely if Pog and del Toro had thought Remco a threat they would have taken turns to break, making him do two chases for one of theirs each? The fact they didn’t suggests to me they under-estimated him. And as said above, Remco did leave all the other GC riders behind him

    • Del Toro was barely hanging on the pace that Pogi was setting (and was cooked for the sprint). Pogi was constantly turning round to check that he hadn’t dropped Del Toro, and several times slightly slowed because Del Toro was struggling. Pogacar could have dropped Remco at any moment, if he had wanted to.

      • @John. If that is the case, what do you think is the reason for him not wanting to do it? I know several people have mentioned not doing so out of respect for Vingegaard or to let Remco win so that he can punish him at some later mountain stage. Truth is, only Pog knows and so many comments people make are to align his actions with their perceived view of Pog. We are all just guessing. I could guess that beacuse Pog is not known for givng freebies to people not on his team, he could not respond to Remco. Either way the record books will have RE as the stage winner.

    • One would think that perhaps they had some evidence of an abnormality (and perhaps not even on the leaders), and/or the knowledge that short half-life peptides and agents may be in use.

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