A final stage and abbreviated to Paris only but this won’t alter the sport. A prestigious stage win awaits and potentially a duel between Tadej Pogačar and Mathieu van der Poel.
Stage 20 Review: if a “grand tour is an exercise in hierarchy” to quote Antoine Blondin, or a Bayesian simulator to use science, then how much can the last mountain stage tell us? Even a day with 5,450m of vertical gain and 70 points for anyone capable of passing the marked mountain points first was probably going to confirm rather than reveal.
Still, There’s plenty to be said for replicating results on a day when many struggled to hoist themselves out of bed and even scaling a bridge over an autoroute was sapping. Richard Carapaz proved he could even improve on the performances of recent days made him the rider of the day, going from a one point lead in the mountains competition to a 56 point unassailable and incontestable win in the mountains competition.
Similarly Mads Pedersen hauled himself over the Alps, attacking at one point to bridge across to the breakaway and then take maximum points at the intermediate sprint to secure the green jersey, an immense ride. The Tour has it’s Supercombatif prize and it’s surely between Carapaz and Pedersen, probably Carapaz but there are good arguments to litigate either way.
The day’s breakaway was reduced to Carapaz, Sep Kuss and Jai Hindley on the lower slopes of the Col de la Sarenne. Another day, another trio starting the climb to Alpe d’Huez with three and half minutes’ lead. But this time Pogačar wasn’t in pursuit mode.
The higher slopes of the Sarenne had no crowds, the road closed to spectators. It was pleasant to see the mountain like this, and no bad advert too for cyclists wanting to explore this road. But also a premonition of what awaits us after the Tour when the sport reverts to sparse crowds and silence.
Kuss led over the Sarenne, but only just. Carapaz had the American in sight and was closing. Then Kuss crashed twice and the second time he was lucky there was netting on the exit of the bend, while Carapaz sped past. Despite the dirt on his kit from falling Kuss looked the fresher climber and could have reversed matters. Only Carapaz is among the cast of riders who can be impossible to bring back if they get five metres.
Behind Decathlon-CMA CGM had tried to ratchet up the pace in an all-or-nothing move to dislodge Isaac del Toro off third place overall only it came to nothing with Seixas unable to sustain the move and cracking, while Del Toro had the luxury help of Tadej Pogačar. Pogačar could have won the stage if he wished but played butler, a high altitude Jeeves.
Evenepoel attacked on the final run to Alpe d’Huez, symbolic perhaps but notable as he’d survived 5,000m of vertical gain, each stomp on the pedals in the final kilometres a serving to every media outlet in Belgium who’d declared he was not a grand tour contender.
As Pogačar and Del Toro came into the finish together they were photo-bombed by Lenny Martinez who secured his fifth place overall, albeit 13 minutes down but he’ll take plenty from the consistent performance and how he was one of the few to hold firm in the third week, all while having turned 23 during this year’s Tour.
The Route: “On n’est pas a Thoiry, ici“. Well almost, there’s a presentation in Thoiry for the crowds and host politicians but then the riders are bussed to Paris. It’s 89km and laps of the 15km long Champs-Elysées – Montmartre circuit, reduced from 133km because of a police shortage with the emergency services mobilised to help with public safety, notably in the Cap Ferret/Arcachon area. In pure cycling terms nobody is missing out on the early parade and we might see a lap or two reserved for this before the racing begins.
If the Champs-Elysées-Montmartre circuit already feels familiar there’s still a difference as after the descent of Montmatre, the course takes the riders to the Place de l’Etoile/Arc de Triomphe and then to the Champs-Elysées. Last year the descent led to the Place de la Concorde. The meaning here is that there’s 10km to the finish from the top of Montmartre when there was 6km last year so more chance for teams to organise a chase.
The Contenders: the circuit has a feel of a spring classic with the repeat cobbled climbs and if it’s only 89km everyone is tired and so it doesn’t need 200km to make the difference.
Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-PremierTech) is the obvious pick, the punch to jump away on the climb, the ability to win the sprint and he’s had this stage in mind for a long time. Jasper Philipsen is a second card to play in the sprint.
Tadej Pogačar (UAE) got beaten here last year, one of the rare moments he lost a bike race in a straight contest. He’s been talking about this stage too and this makes life harder for the sprinters as his moves will distance them. He’ll get extra stimulation from going up against Van der Poel, his arch rival for the classics.
Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) ought to be tired but so far he’s been a force of nature in this Tour.
Olav Kooij (Decathlon-CMA CGM) and Biniam Girmay (NSN) can hope for a sprint and an opportunity.
Jayco pair Michael Matthews and Mauro Schmid have a chance. Netcompany-Ineos still have chance of salvation and Filippo Ganna might be their best bet. There’s no French stage winner so far and Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) has a chance but he’s looked fried.
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Van der Poel |
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Pogačar, Philipsen |
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Kooij, Matthews, Girmay, Schmid, Kanter |
Weather: sunny and 24°C.
TV: KM0 is at 5.55pm and the finish is forecast for 7.30pm CEST.
This year’s tour has seemed to go so fast really disappointed no Australians have one a stage stay up late hopping
This sits better here – @inrng if you consider you can zap the other copy under the previous post.
Nation notes:
– unless tomorrow we get some surprise, for the *very first time in history*, no Italian, French or Spaniard will win even a single stage at the TDF.
The three countries are struggling quite much to fight for TDF stage victories in the so-called “post 2020 cycling”, unlike Belgium or the Netherlands.
Actually, we had got very close to the null score in 2021 and 2022, when a single French win each “saved the day”. 2013 and 2016 also had been close calls, whereas in the past normally if some of those three countries was struggling it meant that one of the others was grabbing the stage opportunities, for example from the end of the 70s to halfway through the 80s when the French were on the fore as Italy and Spain were declining.
Things come and go, the Belgian and Dutch had had a dry season approximatedly mid 00s to mid 10s.
– unless Remco crashes out, tomorrow it will be the first time in 45 years that a Belgian finishes a TDF as the runner-up, Van Impe 1981 behind Hinault being the previous one. I’d even go as far as to say we haven’t had any Belgian climbing a TDF GC podium, as Van Den Broeck 2010 had been actually 5th on the road.
It’s hard to mirror how brutal was the shift for the Belgian after the 70s… not only they had had Merckx, but they were also used to be around in GC podia with a variety of good athletes who maybe never became serial winners but could be there in a fine season. In the 60s they had endured a very short break between Planckaert and Merckx, but then it wasn’t just Eddy – they could count on Van Springel, Bracke, Van Impe, Maertens, De Muynck, Pollentier, Criquelion…
Between 1968 and 1982 both included they never had a season without any GT podium, and some years like 1970 or 71 the Belgian occupied 4 or 5 out of 9 total available podium spots across the 3 GTs – thanks to Merckx? Yes, but even if you totally discount him, you’re left only with 1969, 1973 and 1974 lacking any Belgian on a GT podium – only 3 out of 15 seasons, and, let me insist, that’s if you “cancel” Merckx.
They never podiumed again until the 3rd spot at the 1995 Vuelta (!) by Johan Bruyneel (!!!) racing for the super-ONCE. Not a contender, anyway. After 14 years of total void.
Then again, De Gendt at the Giro 2012. 18 years later. Again, not exactly a pure GT contender.
This says quantity about the weight of the context which GT cyclists have to face in Belgium. And it’s not like they don’t try to “nurture” that kind of rider: in recent years I recall Vansevenant, De Plus, Van Eetvelt, Van Wilder, Vervaeke, Vandenabeele, sadly Lambrecht (a whole different story) all being hugely promising than turning out not really potential GT contenders. And what will be of Uijtdebroecks…?
Next? Widar? (More a Lenny of sort maybe) – Van Kerckhove? Vanhuffel?
Pedersen made a great gift to MvdP securing the Green Jersey for good before the last stage, so no temptation for the team to have him on domestic duties to support any Philipsen points bid. Now the Alpecin duo will be able to play the double card on the front and from the bunch, work or not where you feel more opportune.
Mads was a machine yesterday (Saturday), shockingly good.