Tour de France Stage 19 Preview

Alpe d’Huez awaits, the classic climb but this time with a more gentle approach. Can UAE keep a lid on things so that Tadej Pogačar gets a prestige win for his palmarès?

Festival des Cannes: one of the enjoyable aspects of stage races is seeing multiple races happening at the same time. One saw Mads Pedersen going in the breakaway he managed to make moves all the way to the intermediate sprint in Corps after 129km to take a valuable 25 points.

Early on Richard Carapaz and Valentin Paret-Peintre were in a different contest as they battled for the mountains points, the Frenchman picking off each sprint with a sprint that belied his waif-like build.

Later a solid move got clear but Carapaz missed it. His EF team mates Alex Baudin and Ben Healy set about correcting this and helped tow a willing counter move across to the front.

After Pedersen won the intermediate sprint Felix Engelhardt and Matteo Jorgenson floated away and then Tobias Halland Johannessen got across. Once they’d got a few metres things changed and you could see their backs hunched and elbows going in as they accelerated. Raul Garcia Pierna moved taking Mauro Schmid with him. This allowed Engelhardt to pull harder for his team mate Schmid, prising open the gap before he could do no more. Netcompany-Ineos had missed the move but while Thymen Arensman tried to chase Richard Carapaz darted past with a big counter-attack, taking Paret-Peintre with him. This left six clear with 45km to go and Ineos chasing.

Coming to the finish Garcia Pierna had been dropped but got back and looked like the weakest of the six. At times they were spread across the road to Orcières-Merlette, nobody wanting to lead, looking at each other like poker players around a table trying to second-guess who held which cards and scrutinising rivals for the slightest tell in body language.

Jorgenson looked the most likely to attack and was the first to move. He prompted a counter-attack from Richard Carapaz and Paret-Peintre dived on the Ecuadorian’s wheel. Carapaz went again and this time nobody could follow. Paret-Peintre cracked in finishing fourth missed on the points to take the polka-dot jersey for real rather than leasing it.

It’s a victory for a rider with an artistic and rebellious streak. He attacked on the Puy Mary in an attempt to slip the UAE yoke on Stage 10. And he’s not done yet.

Elsewhere Brandon McNulty abandoned the stage, another UAE rider to fall ill after Adam Yates and Tim Wellens was among those dropped early. Any team talk of Yates’s illness being an isolated affair looked questionable. Tadej Pogačar seems fine but no rivals tried a move on the final climb to test. Also a final plotline in that UAE were spared some duties when the likes of Pinarello-Q36.5, Tudor and Total chased to protect the GC standings of Tom Pidcock, Yannis Voisard and Jordan Jegat.

The Route: 128km and 3,500m of vertical gain. It’s uphill from the start out of Gap on the Col Bayard. This road’s often featured for arrivals in Gap as the climb to take before the white knuckle “Rochette” descent back into Gap. The Bayard is a big wide road.

The Col du Noyer is not, a start amid fields and woodland and then a wild feel. It’s 7.5km at 8.5% with the final 2km with 10% sections between the hairpins.

The route then crosses back across the landscapes taken on the previous stage via the Route Napoleon.

The Col d’Ornon is a quiet backroad and a gentle climb. The descent is more remarkable, rarely steep either but with more hairpins and some moments where the road is cut into the cliff. It’s “technical”, cycling’s euphemism for a dangerous descent.

The Finish: Alpe d’Huez is a tough climb, over 13km at over 8% is hard by any measures and an amphitheatre with its raucous crowds. The start is the hardest part, the ramps have double-digit gradients. It’s famous for the 21 hairpins and they count, a rider can pick their line through these bends to suit and allow someone with energy to spare to accelerate. The slope kicks up for the ramp that leads into the ski resort and from there after the slope eases. There’s a left turn onto the finish line on the Avenue du Rif Nel.

The Contenders: having given Richard Carapaz (EF) three chainrings for the previous stage and writing that even if he won he’d be tipped again, he is. Watching him race to the finish he didn’t ease up when he’ll need plenty to be be able to go again today. Ben Healy helped set him up and isn’t the same force as last year but has a chance too.

Tadej Pogačar (UAE) will want the stage win but given several team mates are ill this poses questions above his team’s ability to control the stage, and that’s before we ponder if he’s immune to this. So he’s not the shoe-in he ought to have been for this stage. It’ll be hard to engineer a stage win for team mate Isaac del Toro as this could let in Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quickstep) again.

Netcompany-Ineos missed the winning move yesterday and later shut down the chase but does Thymen Arensman have anything to spare? Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal-Quickstep) faded on the previous stage but if he can recover this stage will be less intense for him, especially if he gets a colleague in the breakaway with him.

Riders who fit the bill and were not riding as hard on the previous stage include Sepp Kuss and Davide Piganzoli (Visma-LAB), Ilan Van Wilder (Soudal-Quickstep), Harald Tejada (XDS-Astana) and Einer Rubio (Movistar).

Finally Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) sits eighth overall but has still been making moves and he won the last time the race came to the Alpe in 2022.

–
Carapaz, Arensman, Pogačar, VP-P, Kuss
Evenpoel, Jorgenson, Rubio, Healy, Tejada, Piganzoli, Pidcock

Weather: sunny and 29°C.

TV: KM0 is at 2.15pm and the finish is forecast for 5.35pm CEST. The intermediate sprint at the foot of the Col d’Ornon should be reached around 4.25pm and the climb to Alpe d’Huez begins around 5.00pm.

62 thoughts on “Tour de France Stage 19 Preview”

  1. The racing has been excellent the past two days, hopefully another stage like that today.
    And despite all the talk of Pogi being too dominant, it would be a shame to loose him to illness. On the other hand, if he loses 5 minutes today and recovers tomorrow (Tastes seemed a lot better already yesterday), it would make for an epic story.

    Small typo alert, Arensman is Thymen, with e

  2. A few days back I would have tipped Pogacar for this stage without question. But not now. Half his team appear sick and there is a rumour (and its only a rumour) he might be too which perhaps explains the black shorts he suddenly wore yesterday for the first time in four years apparently. Given he has a four and a half minute lead one might also ask why he needs to attack anyone anymore – especially if, as also rumoured, he is going to announce a Vuelta bid after the race. Consequently, I see him more marking today than attacking or, as some have suggested, trying to break Pantani’s Alpe d’Huez record (although it would be cool – or disturbing depending on your point of view – if he did).

    In fact I wonder if, from GC perspective, this might not be a boring stage. Pogacar has the time gap we know about so has no need to make preemptive moves and can bide his time whilst Remco would surely be happy with second so can stay cool so long as everyone is together. Del Toro would be overjoyed to get a podium and has been matching Remco most of the time. Which leaves Seixas as the first guy with a desire to get something he hasn’t yet got and a need to attack. But can anyone see him and Decathlon having what it takes to put people in jeopardy, to make the race? Those below this is GC don’t seem to have what it takes to get more than a top ten so it wouldn’t surprise me if this is a breakaway win. The GC will only kick off in my view if someone gets into trouble giving the others opportunity to make hay.

    • I have a similar feeling.

      It’s a hard scenario to call but you’re right, there’s a version where the break is gone and Pog is simply pacing Del Toro, you’d expect that would put most riders except maybe Remco into loss limiting mode and negate any real fireworks – although most find Pogacar winning solo with grandissimo bravura also boring so maybe it’s a lose-lose for them with the GC battle today!

      There’s also two other scenarios, one that Pog doesn’t need much of a team to win, so if he really wants AlpeD’H and his remaining team or others can keep the break within range he should be able to saunter to the top and take the prize still as per the above. The third scenario is the crazy one, if his team are really suffering and no one is willing to do the riding to keep the riders up the road in range… he could attack solo early on and give us a ride for the ages. If the Vuelta wasn’t coming soon maybe that would be more of a possibility.

      • While reading the INRNG preview I couldn’t help but think of the alternate scenario where Pogacar becomes the one man team, bending the peloton to his whim, if he truly desires the prestigious stage win in yellow.

    • His team first claimed that Yates was the only one and now say that both Pogacar and Del Toro are fine. To paraphrase the famous words of Mandy Rice-Davies, they would wouldn’t they.

      As a former mediocre cyclist I find it almost impossible to understand how riders can concentrate on their performance when the road ahead on celebrated climbs appears blocked with dense and manic fans opening up metres in front of the rider.

      • Wait for it: Dutch Corner.
        Remco mentioned that the crowds might possibly limit attacks, or riders might race for favorable position before the tunnels of humans.

      • Team bosses, team staff and team riders lie but the road doesn’t. Yates and Vermeersch both finished about half an hour down yesterday. Wellens only just made the time cut and McNulty is obviously gone. That leaves Pollitt, Grossschartner, Del Toro and Pog with health unclear. The question is, is anyone going to put their “We are fine” to the test?

      • all spitting diseases in the riders faces. If it doesnt kill them they will all have great immune systems by the end of the tour…

    • Or were the black shorts a mis-direction to get other teams to control the break to the bottom of the Alpe (thinking that maybe their climber has a real chance to win the stage) and then Pogi and UAE only have to pull hard on the final climb… Pogi wins again…!

    • @Bubble Wrap Surely Remco has to give it a go today to test Pog. If Pog really is ill (the black shorts yesterday suggest something is amiss), it’s unlikely Remco will ever get a better chance to take yellow. The question is whether he’d go for s**t or bust or just wants to confirm 2nd place – of course the decision may be made for him if Seixas goes for it.

      • Of course if Pog isn’t ill or is just a tiny bit under the weather, he will no doubt win (and won’t need team-mates to do so).

      • I would imagine Remco is more looking behind than in front – unless an opportunity presents itself. He would have taken second at the start and its not realism to think he could take four and a half minutes back. Plus his own climbing worries have not receded simply because of one stage win. He has learned to climb at his own pace which is good but an attack is different gravy.

        • If Pog is unwell and has the same bug as other UAE rides – and even only a mild version – losing 5 minutes is a possibility in a weakened state. Surely Remco has to test that out – if Pog is unwell, he’s never going to have a better chance of winning the Tour. The downside could be he tests it, Pog is fine and Remco gets annihilated and as a result slides off the podium.

          • If Pog Is unwell, Remco can probably test him without endangering his position – if, of course, Remco himself is able to climb with the best.

          • Isn’t it just a case of wait and see? How can we really talk about anything to do with Pog’s health until we see it with our own eyes?

            And I don’t think Remco ‘fears losing’ – he’s attacked recklessly many times in his career? He’s just a rational human being who’s been beaten many times by a fearsome rival and so, as he is usually unable to attack when following Pog, he’d likely cautious if ever he were? There’s no shame in that. I’m not a huge Remco fan but it’s a bit mean to talk of him so dismissively.

            Both Roglic and Remco, despite being great riders, found out they had to race smartly to be Grand Tour winners, as neither have quite the level of consistency that the absolute greatest stage racers do. That variation is part of the beauty of the sport, but we can’t blame Remco if he isn’t so gung-ho to drop the hammer should something happen to Pog, we should see it in the context of all the defeats he’s suffered over the years and how far he might have to ride with Del Toro on his wheel.

            But tbh, I think Remco is a killer, if he’s feeling good and there’s one lapse from Pog, personally I think he’d go immediately.

          • Remco rode conservatively which means he rode smart. He wasn’t distracted by or lured into chasing Pog but rode his own pace and then accelerated to defend his position when he could. Which is what I meant when I said he’d protect rather than attack. He’s not a Pog level climber but can beat the others riding smart and maximising his own capabilities.

          • @oldDAVE moot isn’t really accurate, though. It was a perfectly reasonable discussion point given the illness in the UAE team and Pog’s switch to black bibs (unused in years). Easy to say moot with hindsight.

    • I’ve seen some information today (possibly Laterne Rouge? don’t remember exactly), that Pogacar will be on Vuelta opening ceremony, not the race itself. And it is coherent with his words from the interview.

  3. When the spectators crowd the climb, the choice of line through the hairpins is made for you, surely.
    I’ll be fascinated to see whether Remco or Seixas gamble on their team attacking a weakened UAE in a bid for glory. My suspicion is no, but the anticipation of possibilities is delicious!

  4. Even with Les Hairpins d’Huez 128 km seems inadequate. I think Pogacar just watches and waits and makes up his mind at the bottom of the climb.

  5. Truly outstanding ride from Mads Pedersen yesterday to get over those 3 climbs with that group.
    Does he have the walnuts to try again today?

    • This blog is so educational, I never knew shoe-in was shoo-in and I’m English! Apparently it comes from rigged American horse-racing in the early 20th century when the pre-designated winner was shoo-ed to the finish line first…

      • I’d only ever known it as a synonym for a “dead-cert” or “hot-favourite”. I saw the other meaning (the fixed horse race) when I went to double-check the spelling this morning.

        I don’t think I’ve ever seen it used with the “fixed race” implications.

        • Indeed. The fixed race implications were the origin of the term, but it hasn’t been used that way since the 1940’s. The meaning now is clean, just “hot-favourite” or no competitor.

  10. Sepp Kuss is my shout. Visma will want a big day as they don’t really have much else to go for in the tour now.
    Kuss holds the pro record for The Alpe on Strava, when racing, it has been beat by someone with amateur status, though they had raced for continental teams. Also may have been a KOM hunter on fresh legs in perfect conditions.
    So Visma can go all out today and burn matches. Probably try and go early. Will Pogi go with them. Maybe not, as much as he wants to win here, he may be directed to keep more conservative bearing in mind he might be attacked by someone else tomorrow. Maybe also as mentioned he is not 100%.
    Carapaz was awesome yesterday but it would be amazing if he backs that up today.
    Guys like Pidcock still scrapping for top 10 may also not follow an early break.
    Should be a great day of racing.

  11. It’s a long slog between Noyer and Ornon. It doesn’t look like Pog has the team he would need to keep the break close, but could he get enough help from other teams?

    • I was just thinking about this – as my first thought is surely not?

      But, if Red Bull had any suspicion Pog was ill, maybe they might think to themselves bonus seconds could be a factor so might be worth keeping in play?

      It’s a long shot but that’s the only team I could see helping UAE, as I suspect everyone would prefer Pog be isolated if he and the team are struggling so would let them burn off the riders as early as possible.

      But A Yates is already up the road, so maybe the story is overhyped as it is?
      It’s hard to imagine a fit Pog having any issues defending himself, even against an attack like the one on Granon a few years ago.

      • Still looking very much in the balance. Some great climbers in the break, so they won’t need a massive amount of time at the foot of the Alpe.

          • True, if they’d all worked together it may have been a different story. Did Martinez do any work at all or just stay glued to Carapaz/

          • @George
            Del Toro on Finestre vibes for Poor Richard, at least this time he could find some consolation in legitimately dressing the mountain jersey (for a single point over Pogi…!).

          • Don’t put Kuss into that mess. He obviously didn’t want all the silliness. Carapaz was the worst offender, but Martinez was obviously killing his own chances as well.

  12. As an all-round Tour goes, Mauro Schmid is showing shades of 2021 van Aert form – wins from a breakaway, second only to Philipsen in a reduced bunch sprint (ahead of Kooij, Pederson etc.) and follows that with second to Carapaz on a mountain finish after a day with ~4000m of climbing, beating Jorgenson, Paret-Peintre and Johannessen. Seriously impressive.

    • I’ve read an as yet unconfirmed (to me at least) statement that Pantani’s time for l’Alpe d’Huez was set over a 14.5km distance, whereas Pogacar et al of late have been timed over 13.8km…

      In any case I’m happy to see Pantani’s “record” knocked off.

      • I think that the times currently quoted around are all set for the 13.8 km distance, including Pantani’s. It’s good that some serious records are also being beaten, little by little, and in this case by a hugely talented athlete, too – about time.
        What’s a bit worrying is that talent isn’t as much spread around as in the 90s, but of course an issue of today’s cycling is that it struggles to have a big base to pick from.
        At least we’ve got Remco, Vingo and now Seixas, too.

    • I wondered whether he & others just behind were there for the purposes of holding up riders wobbling over the finish line but Pogacar was going too quickly to even be caught, let alone to need catching & holding. Ayuso was the only rider who looked in need of holding up & by that point they seemed to have given up trying so their presence seemed superfluous.

  15. Another classic win for Pog to paste into his scrapbook. All the dope testing fever, the illness in his team, the talk of his possibly being sated by victories or jaded by a bit of fatigue – all swept away in the time it took him to accelerate away from Evenepoel, Seixas and del Toro on the lower slopes of the mountain and climb through the cloying mass of half-crazed spectators, as inexorable as an avenging angel, to swoop upon the hapless lead trio and then ride away from them at the end in one strong surge, breaking Pantani’s record by more than a minute.

    A performance of this calibre redeems the relative lack of competitive edge in this edition of the TdeF by offering a different order of excitement: the privilege of watching and then remembering for years to come this man’s supreme sporting achievement.

    • Yes. The glory is in the glory. The joy is in the watching of the glory. This was not about the tension of the competition it was about the triumph of a human at the very zenith of achievement. Remarkable and awesome.

  17. Looking again at Inrng’s predictions for today’s stage, it’s impressive forecasting that 4 of the 5 riders who got 2 chainrings ended up being the top 4 on the stage.

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