After previewing the mountains competition, time to look at the points competition and the green jersey contenders.
The points scale
Points are awarded at the finish line and at one intermediate point in the stage.
- Flat stages (Stages 5,7,8,11,12) 70-50-40-35-30-26-24-22- 20-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-2 points for the first 18 riders
- Hilly stages (Stages 4,13,17,21): 50-30-20-18- 16-14-12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2 points for the first 15
- Very hilly stages (Stages 2,3,9,18): 30-25-22-19-17-15-13-11-9-7-6-5-4-3-2 points
- Very difficult stages + ITT (Stages 6,10,14,15,16): 20-17-15-13-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points
- Intermediate sprits 25-20-16-14-12-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points
This scale is new for 2026 with more for the very flat stages, eg 70-50-40 for the first three when last year the flat and hilly stages saw 50-30-20 and so on. Also the intermediate sprints get a boost too, they now offer 25 to the winner when it was 20 last year. This tilts the competition even more to the pure sprinters.
The route
There are only five obvious sprint stages, see for yourself with all the stage profiles on one page at inrng.com/tour.
Stage 17 stands out as a day where a strong team like Lidl-Trek can hope to break the peloton early and distance sprinters so their house sprinter, in this case Mads Pedersen, can win the intermediate sprint.
Similarly Stages 18 and 19 also see the intermediate sprint placed later in the stage which allows a raider capable of going clear to score. But by when what if a sprinter has managed to take three stage wins and thrived in the intermediate sprints too?
The Contenders
Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quickstep) is the probably fastest sprinter at the moment but aged 33 he’s never sat comfortably or durably on the throne, in part because he’s a modest man rather than the alpha egocentric sprinters we’re used to. See the recent Tour of Belgium where he won a stage but got beaten on other days. Or last year’s Tour where he won every Tour sprint he could contest but was also thwarted by splits and crashes. He is the example of why competition is about arithmetic and not speed: he ought to win a stage but taking the green jersey is a big ask. He’ll need to rule the roost with multiple stage wins to build up a lead.
Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-PremierTech) won this competition 2023 and has been runner-up twice and has some versatility to get over climbs when other sprinters cannot and gets the boost of lead-outs from Mathieu van der Poel who deliver him into position in a way nobody else can. Van der Poel himself ought to be a green jersey contender on paper but mentally having to hunt for points every day is not his style, he’d probably prefer the thrill of going all in for a stage win.
Biniam Girmay (NSN) has found winning ways again. He took three stages and the green jersey in 2024 but then didn’t win a race again until this year. But if he’s back he’s yet to establish a winning streak but he has been placing regularly. Helpfully he’s got a team in his service so if he can show the speed and versatility again he’s got a strong chance of repeating.
Olav Kooij (Decathlon-CMA CGM) has been an heir apparent for the sprint crown and now starts his first Tour de France. He moved teams in order to be at the Tour but he’s missed most of the season with illness and the rise of Paul Seixas threatened to eclipse him but he’s here after three wins in nine days of racing. He’s got light support but teams don’t have long sprint trains these days and Cees Bol is a good helper but they’re not used to each other. The sense is a stage win comes first and then what comes after is a bonus.
Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) sat out the Tour last summer to give Jonathan Milan a go. Pedersen doesn’t have the pure speed but neither did points competition record holder Peter Sagan against Mark Cavendish et al, indeed he could win the green jersey without winning a stage thanks to placing in some sprints and by making raids in the mountains and using his team to break the peloton on the climbs. Pedersen will aim to mimic this, he’ll have it hard winning bunch sprints outright against the names cited already but his advantage comes on hillier terrain but these days are rare, plus his team also have other goals too. He’s still hunting for his first win of the season too. However in his prime he can be in sizzling form.
Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Intermarché) excels in slow sprints, races that end with a gradual rise to the line only there are none on this year’s route. He hasn’t got his usual lead-out entourage either, it feels like he’s been picked because he’s the team’s star rider, but not backed all the way because he’s leaving the team soon.
Dorian Godon (Ineos) is good on hard days but is more likely to pick a stage rather than try every day and he’ll likely lose when it comes to the new points scale which reward the pure sprinters too.
Milan Fretin (Cofidis) could be Wout van Aert’s body double and a rising prospect but he and his team would sign for a stage win today.
Tadej Pogačar (UAE)? He’s on 21 stage wins and will surely win more and he finished second last year, 78 points behind Jonathan Milan in Paris. Last year’s route really suited with a first week that actually saw him take green thanks to a series of punchy uphill finishes. This year can see him hustle for results and wins in the first week but there are fewer opportunities. In short he didn’t win it last year, the course is less auspicious and the points scale has changed too.
Talking tactics
Only a handful of teams come with a full sprint set-up: namely a top sprinter, a quality lead-out and a couple of workhorse riders to reel in breakaways. Soudal-Quickstep, NSN and Alpecin-PremierTech fit the bill here.
The tactics could be interesting to watch, will Quickstep and Alpecin commit to all the work knowing the likes of Cofidis, Decathlon, Lotto, Bahrain (for Bahaus), Uno-X (Wærenskjold), Astana-XDS (Kanter), Picnic-PostNL (Bittner), Caja Rural (Gaviria) and Tudor (De Kleijn) might try to hold-off or even send riders up the road, all while having their sprint cards in the finish too? This could see a sprint stage going to the breakaway but only on terrain to help, think Stage 12 because the amount of sprinters here still means on flat days even Caja Rural will back Gaviria rather than gamble on the break.
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Philipsen, Girmay |
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Kooij, Merlier |
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Pedersen |
Astana-XDS have Max Kanter for the sprints, Teunissen is on lead-out duty.