You know it’s July when you see the polka dot jersey. He’s a look at the riders who might be sporting it soon.
The maths
Points are awarded as follows:
-
- hors catégorie (6 in total): 20-15-12-10-8-6-4-2 points
- Category 1 climbs (13): 10-8-6-4-2-1 points
- Category 2 (11) 5-3-2-1 points
- Category 3 (21): 2-1 points
- Category 4 (18): 1 point
This is different to recent years where the highest climb of the race got double points, eg the Galibier or Loze saw 40-30-24 points etc to the first over. Before that the final HC climb of the day got double points. None of this happens in 2026, all HC climbs are equal.
The route
The competition should be lively from the start as the first week is a high-scoring one compared to the norm as there are plenty of climbs, including the Category 1 climb of the Collada de Toses on Stage 3 and the HC-rated Tourmalet on Stage 6 and this way whoever has the jersey at the end of the first week won’t have it accidentally because of a breakaway.
Stage 20 will settle things and is illustrative of several stages where the breakaway can go clear and score points even if they face being reeled in before the finish.
How to win?
There are two routes to the polka dot jersey. One is accidental where the GC contenders pick it up by virtue of being on the attack in the mountains for stage wins and time without really making it a priority, we’ve seen Tadej Pogačar (2020, 2021, 2025) and Jonas Vingegaard win the competition this way (2022), typically winning a mountain stage late in the third week to take over the lead.
The other is the deliberate mountain raid from a climber who will go in the breakaway in the mountains and score on the first climbs and hope the move sticks to contest the stage but if not they can try a raid again and rack up points. We’ve seen Giulio Ciccone (2023) and Richard Carapaz (2024) win the competition this way.
The points system for 2026 tilts things more towards the latter scenario, including as many HC-rated climbs en route as there are at the stage finish. So score big on HC climbs early in a stage and here and there elsewhere in the race and a rider could have a cushion on Pogačar. Note “tilt” and the conditional tense, if Pogačar wakes up wanting to win a stage and mow down the breakaway it’ll happen.
Contenders
Lenny Martinez (Bahrain) wore the jersey last year and has improved since. This year the goal has been to try riding for GC in week-long stage races but more in dull terms of process, of steadiness and practicing the logistics required. But now at the Tour he’s got more freedom to ride for himself, he wants a stage win or the polka dots and can probably manage both. He’s been an erratic rider in the past but he’s still a few days short of turning 23 but is now rounding out.
Richard Carapaz (EF Education-Easypost) won in 2024 and says he is in great shape now. His pre-Tour quote adds “the general classification will depend heavily on how the race circumstances unfold. I want to go after stage wins and could try to repeat winning the mountains jersey” which is probably code for saying he knows he can’t match Pogačar and Vingegaard so unless he infiltrates a move and takes time, it’ll be stage wins and polka dots like in 2024. He’ll like the third week especially. Carapaz is illustrative because a rider of his stature still has to pick goals.
You never know what you’ll get with Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) and he’d probably like a stage win and some good finish on GC but these goals risk being in opposition. He’s well-suited to the task of fetching the polka dots, punchy atop a mountain and crafty but does he want it?
Imagine Mikel Landa in the drops as he crests a high mountain pass. Only the cult of landismo is banished for July as he’s not been selected by Soudal-Quickstep. Instead his apprentice can try. One reason Valentin Paret-Peintre left Decathlon was he was getting tired of the team’s focus on sports science and he wanted more freedom to train as he wants and also to learn from Landa. “VPP” is a contender for the jersey and a canny rider but his ultralight build makes sprinting for points harder against beefier rivals.
Netcompany-Ineos don’t come with any obvious GC leaders. If they’re after other forms of success then this competition ought to interest them. Thymen Arensman won two stages last and was fourth in the competition but how to improve, as we saw at the Giro he can climb well but not make darting accelerations. Kévin Vauquelin is faster and suited to this competition but will he try for GC first and so not score on some of the earlier days in the mountains?
If the Aura Tour was practice for the Tour then Clément Braz Afonso (Groupama-FDJ) gets a mention for winning the mountains competition there but makes his Tour debut and this time winning means scaling higher mountains more often, it’s hard to see him getting the better of Martinez and Carapaz. Tenth in the Tour last year, Jordan Jegat (TotalEnergies) has missed out on a lot with a knee injury – at times unable to pedal on one leg, once reduced to walking uphill to his home because he could not pedal – but now looks fully recovered and beginning to look consistent too. He’ll have space to move but winning the jersey is a tough ask. Einer Rubio (Movistar) is in the pure climber bracket and has a Lenny Martinez-like craftiness. Michael Storer (Tudor) can climb well at the best of times and maybe needs some stars to align but if they do on the right day he’s a contender too. Harald Tejada (XDS-Astana) is having a good season.
Tadej Pogačar (UAE) especially, and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-LAB) get mentions. The central case is that as GC contenders they stand collect the jersey on the way to something bigger; but there’s also the consolation angle where if one is sapped from the Giro or the other is short of form then stage wins and the mountains competition can compensate although it’s hard to see Pogačar folding and settling for polka dots.
 |
Richard Carapaz, Lenny Martinez |
 |
Tadej Pogačar |
 |
VP-P, Pidcock, Storer, Vingegaard |
Finally as much we can identify contenders, the thing to hope for is a contest that comes alive in the mountains and is sustained to the end.
Usually there would be a few more in that Carapaz category- give GC a go, but if not tilt for the dots.
Only this year, many riders will be going in knowing they don’t stand a chance of winning GC at all. No expectation of that whatsoever for all but two riders (I’m not including Seixas). This takes off all pressure. In this situation finishing third, even fourth or fifth, in Paris is a big win – like finishing in the last Champions League qualifying spot in football.
As GC riders compete for places 3-10 in Paris, I hope to see the return of the KoM specialist, with dazzling raids for points. Who will emerge?
Seixas and Lenny Martinez in an all French battle for the KOM jersey? Could be fun!
Sounds depressingly similar to the latter days of Jalabert and Virenque, and Bardet and Pinot. France doesn’t need another polka dot winner, it’s the consolation prize they have won many times. I’m sure they’d much rather have Seixas hang in for a creditable 3rd, even if its a lot to ask.
We don’t know how Seixas will fare deep into week 3 of the Tour. I think if he starts well but fades to about 7th in the third week this will still be a credible achievement and something to build on in future years.
When was the last time a 19 year old won the KOM jersey? It would certainly be something to build on unless he’ll be happy with a top 10 on GC.
Hard to see in direct competition though, Martinez wants to sprint for the climbs and will go early; Seixas can ride away mid-climb but won’t be going for points unless something else has gone wrong with his GC bid.
I’d like to see Seixas accidentally win the Yellow Jersey by virtue of being on the attack in the mountains aiming to win the KOM.
😀
A GC preview will follow here soon – points competition preview next up – but something would have to go wrong for Seixas to attack in search of mountain points because his first goal is finishing and the second is the best GC possible.
Interesting survey from Inrng. But I have a question. Often the breakaway riders don’t really sprint for the mountain points and one rider is allowed to take the points uncontested. Does this allow a weaker mountain-top sprinter who regularly gets into the breakaways to get the jersey without having much of a sprint?
We often see this later in the race when someone has points already because they sprinted for them in the first/second week and others didn’t. Doing a 300m sprint at the top of a climb takes a lot of effort so plenty prefer to save energy knowing if they won they can’t win it.
VPP is pretty fast in a sprint, surprinsingly… See his 3d place on Romandie stage 3, and other results.
Jegat told he want to go for stages wins and the jersey. If Carapaz goes for it, he will be hard to beat…
I also read that Ben Healy was targeting this jersey… Lots of declared contestants, more than other years, it seems.
Think Healy will be picking his moments to go all in for a stage win on the transition stages, plus he’s not got much of a sprint on him.
I’d go with a Carapaz v Martinez battle, hope to see it.
Dark horse pick would be Bernal
Was chewing over Bernal but first he’d have to be ruled out as a GC contender and then he’s a bit of a diesel and prone to fading. Would be nice to see him going for it and the third week’s stages suit if he’s done on GC.
I find the effort for this jersey to be both overrated and under rated at the same time.
Under rated. The effort required to get in the break for these stages day after day is underrated. And if you want to beat the best climber who is on a strong team who for most stages just follows until the last part of the stage the effort to be in the break a lot is really hard over 3 weeks.
Over rated. Like the green jersey if somebody gets a big early lead the others basically give up or don’t give it a try at all.
For some reason I always enjoy the early days of the KOM competition where the breakaway fights over cat 4 climbs and a rider you’ve never heard of gets to wear the polka dot jersey for a couple of days. The crash involving Thomas and Vercher last year on the cobbles at the top of a cat 4 was a classic in that genre especially as they both got up OK and seemed to have a laugh about it afterwards.
That crash is memorable. It shows the enormity of the Tour, riders sprinting for one meagre point but it means so much when it any other race it would be anecdotal.
I like the Pidcock thought – I hadn’t considered him for this. It made me wonder who is likely to end up in the classic 5-10 GC spots who probably wouldn’t regard that as “success” and who might seek something more as a consolation – I wonder if this could evolve into a target for Ayuso, for example. Remco could be another.
I did suggest two routes above but there can be another: the GC contender whose bid flops and Operation Salvage begins once they’ve lost a lot of time. Romain Bardet did it. Evenepoel did this in the 2023 Vuelta and it would be better than getting nothing this time but it would be a meagre consolation, the same for Ayuso. Carapaz in 2024 ended up like this, a GC hope extinguished and it was a positive outcome but for him on a smaller team.
This time someone who wants the jersey today can hope to get points on the Tourmalet, on the Vosges stage and build up a lead ahead of a rider who sees their hopes evaporate in the third week.
Ayuso would be tangentially amusing as the Lidl rider would have to ride around in a jersey promoting Leclerc supermarkets (it was awkward when Ciccone did it, not for the rider just senior people and marketing types)
I would love to see the likes of Carapaz and Bernal lose 10 minutes early in the race just to have the ability to get in the break and go for stages/mountain points. I would imagine that Pidcock will lose the opportunity to get mountain points by trying to stay relatively close in gc; Storer will probably do this as well. I would much rather see a backdoor top 10 from late-race breakaways than a non-competitive ninth place from grinding it out. Perhaps we’ll see a rider in the Carapaz/Martinez bracket do this.
You heard it here first: Remco.
After a tough first week where it will become evident for everyone, even himself, that the team leader is Florian. He will reassess his race and lifetime career goals mid week after losing time and come back the day after fresh with a new goal in mind – breaks, stages, polka dots, pulling Florian and showmanship. That’s what I want to see at least.
Wouldn’t it be difficult for Remco to get up the road in early stages early, given that he will be close in GC after the TTT?
Seems that others will start accruing points before Remco can ride away in a break with out
causing a bit of reaction from GC hopeful teams. Not so much Visma or UAE, more like Decathlon, Lidl and Movistar.
Totally agree. The only riders who will get any freedom early will be no-hopers. It might start to get interesting after the Tourmalet, but there aren’t many mountains between then and stage 14, so the big boys will likely be battling for those. Maybe someone gets away for most of stage 10, but Pogi will want to win that one.