After previewing the mountains competition, time to look at the points competition and the green jersey contenders.
The points scale
Points are awarded at the finish line and at one intermediate point in the stage.
- Flat stages (Stages 5,7,8,11,12) 70-50-40-35-30-26-24-22- 20-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-2 points for the first 18 riders
- Hilly stages (Stages 4,13,17,21): 50-30-20-18- 16-14-12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2 points for the first 15
- Very hilly stages (Stages 2,3,9,18): 30-25-22-19-17-15-13-11-9-7-6-5-4-3-2 points
- Very difficult stages + ITT (Stages 6,10,14,15,16): 20-17-15-13-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points
- Intermediate sprits 25-20-16-14-12-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points
This scale is new for 2026 with more for the very flat stages, eg 70-50-40 for the first three when last year the flat and hilly stages saw 50-30-20 and so on. Also the intermediate sprints get a boost too, they now offer 25 to the winner when it was 20 last year. This tilts the competition even more to the pure sprinters.
The route
There are only five obvious sprint stages, see for yourself with all the stage profiles on one page at inrng.com/tour.
Stage 17 stands out as a day where a strong team like Lidl-Trek can hope to break the peloton early and distance sprinters so their house sprinter, in this case Mads Pedersen, can win the intermediate sprint.
Similarly Stages 18 and 19 also see the intermediate sprint placed later in the stage which allows a raider capable of going clear to score. But by when what if a sprinter has managed to take three stage wins and thrived in the intermediate sprints too?
The Contenders
Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quickstep) is the probably fastest sprinter at the moment but aged 33 he’s never sat comfortably or durably on the throne, in part because he’s a modest man rather than the alpha egocentric sprinters we’re used to. See the recent Tour of Belgium where he won a stage but got beaten on other days. Or last year’s Tour where he won every Tour sprint he could contest but was also thwarted by splits and crashes. He is the example of why competition is about arithmetic and not speed: he ought to win a stage but taking the green jersey is a big ask. He’ll need to rule the roost with multiple stage wins to build up a lead.
Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-PremierTech) won this competition 2023 and has been runner-up twice and has some versatility to get over climbs when other sprinters cannot and gets the boost of lead-outs from Mathieu van der Poel who deliver him into position in a way nobody else can. Van der Poel himself ought to be a green jersey contender on paper but mentally having to hunt for points every day is not his style, he’d probably prefer the thrill of going all in for a stage win.
Biniam Girmay (NSN) has found winning ways again. He took three stages and the green jersey in 2024 but then didn’t win a race again until this year. But if he’s back he’s yet to establish a winning streak but he has been placing regularly. Helpfully he’s got a team in his service so if he can show the speed and versatility again he’s got a strong chance of repeating.
Olav Kooij (Decathlon-CMA CGM) has been an heir apparent for the sprint crown and now starts his first Tour de France. He moved teams in order to be at the Tour but he’s missed most of the season with illness and the rise of Paul Seixas threatened to eclipse him but he’s here after three wins in nine days of racing. He’s got light support but teams don’t have long sprint trains these days and Cees Bol is a good helper but they’re not used to each other. The sense is a stage win comes first and then what comes after is a bonus. There is a question over form as if he’s back to winning, coping with a grand tour is another challenge. But all the sprints come in the first half.
Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) sat out the Tour last summer to give Jonathan Milan a go. Pedersen doesn’t have the pure speed but neither did points competition record holder Peter Sagan against Mark Cavendish et al, indeed he could win the green jersey without winning a stage thanks to placing in some sprints and by making raids in the mountains and using his team to break the peloton on the climbs. Pedersen will aim to mimic this, he’ll have it hard winning bunch sprints outright against the names cited already but his advantage comes on hillier terrain but these days are rare, plus his team also have other goals too. He’s still hunting for his first win of the season too. However in his prime he can be in sizzling form.
Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Intermarché) excels in slow sprints, races that end with a gradual rise to the line only there are none on this year’s route. He hasn’t got his usual lead-out entourage either, it feels like he’s been picked because he’s the team’s star rider, but not backed all the way because he’s leaving the team soon.
Dorian Godon (Ineos) is good on hard days but is more likely to pick a stage rather than try every day and he’ll likely lose when it comes to the new points scale which reward the pure sprinters too.
Milan Fretin (Cofidis) could be Wout van Aert’s body double and a rising prospect but he and his team would sign for a stage win today.
Tadej Pogačar (UAE)? He’s on 21 stage wins and will surely win more and he finished second last year, 78 points behind Jonathan Milan in Paris. Last year’s route really suited with a first week that actually saw him take green thanks to a series of punchy uphill finishes. This year can see him hustle for results and wins in the first week but there are fewer opportunities. In short he didn’t win it last year, the course is less auspicious and the points scale has changed too.
Talking tactics
Only a handful of teams come with a full sprint set-up: namely a top sprinter, a quality lead-out and a couple of workhorse riders to reel in breakaways. Soudal-Quickstep, NSN and Alpecin-PremierTech fit the bill here.
The tactics could be interesting to watch, will Quickstep and Alpecin commit to all the work knowing the likes of Cofidis, Decathlon, Lotto, Bahrain (for Bahaus), Uno-X (Wærenskjold), Astana-XDS (Kanter), Picnic-PostNL (Bittner), Caja Rural (Gaviria) and Tudor (De Kleijn) might try to hold-off or even send riders up the road, all while having their sprint cards in the finish too? This could see a sprint stage going to the breakaway but only on terrain to help, think Stage 12 because the amount of sprinters here still means on flat days even Caja Rural will back Gaviria rather than gamble on the break.
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Philipsen, Girmay |
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Kooij, Merlier |
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Pedersen |
Astana-XDS have Max Kanter for the sprints, Teunissen is on lead-out duty.
Wonder about Dorian Godon / Netcompany, they obviously dont have a real GC contender given Oscar Onley’s injury. Whilst they might have candidates for a stage win or two, the Green jersey might offer something to aim for. Whilst he isnt likely to win the big set piece sprints he could well place, the intermediate sprints offer a decent haul of points and the hilly stages could well offer opportunities. Certainly would help with the team profile especially in France.
I understand that Dorian Godon doesn’t really like the hustle of true sprints. If he wins, he will need to get a few top-5 placings on these stages (in my opinion). And this goes for anyone esle wanting to win the green jersey.
Let’s be honest, they never had a real GC contender for this edition anyways.
He’d struggle to score big on the flat days. Will watch for him as a stage hunter.
My question is which sprinter will win the most stages? It has to be Merlier, no?
Merlier has shown to be the most consistent winner lately. We’re in the age of “more chaotic, less controlled” sprints where the right guy in the right place is the winner. And it’s even more chaotic in the TdF, so I expect 2 stage wins for Merlier and 1 each for others.
This likely means a dog fight for the Green too.
Lidl-Trek again insisting on their strange policy of only bringing Pedersen or Milan. I realise they’re all-in for Ayuso this year, but does anyone really believe that he’s going to remain in the GC race? I’d say he’s 50/50 to even complete the race.
It’s not so strange, though, is it if they’re all-in for Ayuso, regardless of what you think about his chances.
For what it’s worth, I don’t think he’ll be challenging for the podium – top 10 maybe – but clearly the team is going for it as that is what they brought Ayuso in for (no doubt at great expense).
But they do this every year.
My not-at-all bold prediction is that they will deeply regret signing Ayuso. Flaky athletes rarely become un-flaky.
I’d take out Vacek (if you’re focusing on GC), put Milan in and tell him to follow others’ trains.
Oops, sorry. You can delete that one (and this).
I’d take out Vacek (if you’re focusing on GC), put Milan in and tell him to follow others’ trains.
More likely to get stage wins – and even the green jersey – than Pedersen.
I am not sure that calling Ayuso flaky is entirely fair. The tensions at UAE were partly due to the team management largely leaving race strategy to the riders, and there being too many GC riders all looking for their own opportunity. I would say that Ayuso is an outside candidate for third but behind several other plausible candidates. He should be comfortably in the top-10.
Only one of Pedersen and Milan can be supported for a tilt at the green jersey – the team have to choose. And the choice was Pedersen this year. They can be disappointed that the flat stages suddenly award many more points than before, and the intermediate points mostly don’t come after tricky climbs. Neither was known three months ago.
Ayuso is on 3 DNFs out of his last 7 stage races.
They’ve spent a lot on him but he’s here to learn rather than bring instant results. Although a good chance of yellow on Saturday.
Perusing the TdF shops I couldn’t help wondering why anyone would want to wear the current ugly green jersey! Joking aside, the green jersey seems to be more and more about attrition. Who can grind out points on days when nobody else is there, and who can stay upright even with a stage win or two. I wonder when/if we’ll see a return to the days of several flat stages where the big leadouts line up to set up a relatively predictable competition. Doesn’t seem like there’s much appetite for it, so it will be interesting to see if the truly fast men like Merlier will get their shot.
The points competition was already too slanted towards the sprinters. It’s supposed to reward consistency, not be a ‘sprinters jersey’. Sprinters already get enough, with stage wins for relatively little work, but if you want to have a sprinters jersey, have a separate jersey for it (replacing the young riders’ jersey, which is of little interest these days), and get the green jersey back to what it should be.
The green jersey will be won mainly on the intermediate sprints, I think. Most of the intermediate sprints are early in the stage and before any difficult climb; and these sprints award a huge amount of points, with even 15th place picking up points. There will be points available to the sprinters in the peloton even after the break goes. Consistently being in the first few places when the peloton rolls through these sprint points will be a requirement to win the jersey.
Pogacar almost certainly missed his chance to win the green jersey last year.
Pog also missed making history by winning the trifecta the year before – and all, apparently, so that his team mates could have a go at it, when they had little to no chance. Possibly a once in history moment.
Should have taken the points jersey last year too – he gifted it to Milan.
I’m curious about Decathlon’s decision to bring Kooij–is this because it was promised to him in his contract negotiations? Does his inclusion weaken Decathlon’s run at the GC and is it a sign that maybe they don’t think Seixas is a real GC threat this year? It seems like it puts Seixas in a weaker position vis-a-vis UAE and other teams going all-in on GC. Or?
Bissegger was out so who to bring in? Léo Bisiaux is in great form but set on the Vuelta. So Kooij comes in minus Muhlberger. Maybe Seixas might miss the Austrian but if he’s fully recovered Benoot covers the role well.
I think Decathlon very wisely weighed the pros and cons of leaving a very able rider – Kooij – at home and putting all their eggs in the Seixas basket. It would seem extremely unlikely that Decathlon would ever have to seriously control the race with Visma and UAE there, so as long as they can always keep a couple of helpers around, Seixas should be able to just try to stay in the mix, which he has already shown that he does exceptionally well. That gives Kooij a shot to make it a good race for Decathlon even if Seixas falls well short of the incredibly difficult standards that have already been set for him. With no Kooij there, what would Decathlon’s Tour look like if Seixas fell out of the top ten? He might have to scramble for a stage win just to avoid a total disaster, which is tough to put on a young kid’s shoulders. I don’t expect that to happen, but it’s not like we have a long history of teenagers having great grand tours.
It takes pression out of the shoulders of a 19yo boy… Can’t be bad. All their TdF is not on him.
I wish Magnier was here
We’ll see if he is next year. Merlier knows he’s not going to be at the top for much longer and sees Magnier as a successor, there’s no hint of rivalry (yet).
Thanks Mr Ring. One question though, and maybe I missed it, are there any points awarded on stage 1?
No points.