Tour de France Preview

59 thoughts on “Tour de France Preview”

1. It feels like the Tour has a very deep field of GC contenders this year on paper. The reality is though that there will be one clear winner, and one contender, and we already know who they will be. The rest, though very capable riders, will either race for 3rd – 10th or realise early on it isn’t happening and try and snipe stage wins. If Pogacar is in the mood though, there might not be too many of those available either.

2. Thanks for the preview.

   Lipowitz to finish above Evenepoel. Lip 3rd; Eve out of the top 10, having dropped out of GC contention with a bad day in the mountains, and thus decided to go for stages. (And maybe he – and his team – will finally accept that he is not going to be a top GT rider because he just doesn’t have it in the long mountains, whereas he could be an awesome one-day rider, including at the Ronde and Paris-Roubaix.)

   • Evenepoel is someone who can ride for a place 3rd-10th in the Tour. He could win either the Giro or the Vuelta if the top guys aren’t there, and it has the right parcours (but would not necessarily be the favourite). He is “a GC guy” but just isn’t competing with Pogacar or Vingegaard and isn’t “the best of the rest” among the GC-riders either. He also can’t compete in one-day classics against Pogacar, so concentrating on those races really doesn’t make much sense. (And GC-guys generally get paid more).

     • @John I think this is a much better summary of Remco’s position than the one set out by J Evans.

       Although it’s probably worth adding that the young guns will be overtaking him very shortly (maybe even in this Tour) so if he’s going to add a Giro or another Vuelta he better get a shuffle on!

       • I am, however, intrigued by how the new lean, mean climbing machine Remco will go!

       • Yes, I agree with you. He will find it increasingly tough to win another GT with the new guns coming up.

         I think a lot of criticism of Remco not being a GC rider is really disappointment that he is not quite as good as many people hoped. And that he is so inconsistent. He shows occasional flashes of being the third best GC-rider but also too often is mediocre. I also think both he and his supporters struggle to accept where his level really is.

         • I do think it’s fair to say Remco is at a bit of a crossroads here though.

           Seeing him dropped by so many riders in the UAE tour and then again in Catalunya definitely set off the warning bells, although it should be noted he finished 10th and 5th in them respectively so wasn’t completely out of contention.

           It’s just a very long time since we’ve seen him climb with the best and his TDF podium in 2024 has started to feel a long way off.

           I think ardent Remco fans are right to hope for a resurgence to another Tour podium or more this year, but Remco-realists (that’s the best I could think of!) can legitimately argue they’re right to eagerly await another the next DNF and the end to his dreams as a three week GC rider given recent results.

           Obviously people say form is temporary, class is permanent (and Remco could retire today and be extremely proud of his career) but endurance sports aren’t always so kind.

           I’m on the fence even if I find it hard to see him winning a Giro or Vuelta if Del Toro or even a fit Almeida from UAE is racing, as well as fair few more consistent riders on this level seeing how temperamental he’s been in recent years – but I’m happy to be proved wrong.

           Either way I do feel he needs to re-establish our belief in him urgently with a podium or more in either the Tour or Vuelta so there’s more to hold onto rather than just the idea of his mega-watt potential.

           It’s seems clear that he’s likely struggle to best Pog or Vin during his career as it stands, and as John says, it’s now looking like he’s about to fall behind others to so I think we’re close to the answer of whether his best days are already behind him or whether there’s more to come – however harsh that sounds.

           The question I actually find more interesting about Remco is whether or not it was a mistake in hindsight to hold him back from the Tour so long, especially seeing the route Seixas is taking.

         • Evenepoel’s rides in UAE and Catalunya looked poor but we now know he was secretly aiming for Flanders. Now he’s lost 4kg apparently, and gossip says he has been going great at training camp.

         • @INRNG yes, I heard similar and this is a good point!

           I’m sort of hopeful for him but my head is saying there have been too many tantrums over the years and we already know he’s been a level below the best over recent years so I can only be cautiously optimistic of a top5 for Remco.

           It feels a little like Geraint Thomas’ podium behind P/V being strangely as impressive as his win? If Remco gets a podium this year, I think it will be a bigger statement than 2024 especially giving the presence of the young guns.

3. Lipowitz’ll finish second, above Vingegaard this year. Seixas will be surprised by the relentless intensity and shift to targeting a stage win by the end. Pogacar will want to win the Paris stage in Yellow, overall his tour will be unusually conservative, not explosive. Evenepoel will be Evenepoel and Pidcock will have a decent top-10 tour but never look happy about being there. Del Toro will show lots of potential but make questionable tactical decisions.

   • the way people talk about Vingegaard is unbelievably disrespectful…

     it’s obviously only a forum comments section so who cares, it’s all just a bit of fun!

     but it’s one thing to say Remco might falter given his recent past, completely another to say a 2xTour winner, who’s been a comfortable runner up multiple times (even when injured) and who’s just wiped the floor with all comers in every race he’s participated in the year is going to fall behind a rider who has NEVER beaten him in a single stage race EVER????

     Obviously this is cycling; mechanicals, illnesses, crashes happen… so it may well come to pass that Lipowitz bests Vingegaard, or that Florian does indeed spring a surprise and perform better than we currently expect – but with all the evidence currently available this is an insanely daft prediction and flat out rude to a rider of Jonas’ pedigree.

     All other predictions of Pidcock, Evenepoel, Del Toro have fair historical basis so are more understandable and not that far out, even if Del Toro’s tactical nous seems to have improved, plus he’s so strong tactics may not be as important.

     • Obviously this is cycling; mechanicals, illnesses, crashes happen…

       The Tifosi as well as a factor. IMO the conduct of crowds has been getting worse in recent years. It’s not outside of the ballpark to predict that a contender will get taken out of the race by some drunken fool or protester. This is just another issue that road cycling presents, and there’s no appropriate solution.

     • “Lipowitz’ll finish second this year, above Vingegaard this year”

       Unbelievably disrespectful, insanely daft and flat out rude?

       Early reminder that this is the Tour de France, it’s not a matter of life and death, it’s far more important than that…

     • Oh, stop clutching your pearls! He’s just voicing an opinion, and I think a slightly sardonic one. I think Jonas will sleep well whatever is said on this forum.

   • Even a broken clock is correct twice a day…!

     Several of those predictions are likely if not inevitable but more broadly I’m optimistic the number and range and quality of p. 2/3-10 contenders is so great it’ll lead to a race much harder to control for UAE and Visma, both of which have been sadly disrupted by injury. As have so many teams, unfortunately.

4. If Decathlon was behind a serious GC bid from Seixas would they really have Bol and Kooij in the squad? They might create a sprint chance but don’t appear to have the qualities to much help a GC rider. Does the team feel capable of managing two priorities or do they simply feel an obligation to their new recruit? Saying that Kooij was in the Visma squad for last year’s Giro won by Yates – though that was largely because Del Toro threw victory away.

   • “A serious GC-bid”.

     There is a world of difference between being in the GC-battle for 3rd-10th and trying to win the race. For the later you need to be “all-in” for your GC-leader. But if you are aiming for 3rd-10th, then you know that the GC-group will be led by UAE and Visma and you only need one-or-two riders to support you to the last mountain: you will be following the best two teams up to that point and don’t need domestiques at the front of the GC-group setting the pace.

     Seixas is a 19-year-old kid. He has never ridden a grand tour. While he has shown some good climbing performances on particular days, we have no idea how he will fare over several consecutive days of climbing. And we don’t know if he has the stamina for three weeks (and this stamina normally improves with age). His team would be crazy not to take a reasonably fit Kooij to the race.

     • Yes, there’s an obvious compromise. Losing Muhlberger is noticeable but still a small thing for Seixas as Benoot ought to bring some cover here, while Kooij in the words of the Dutch press is “een Faraday”, the lightening conductor. The only issue comes is if there’s nothing to show by Paris from either but they can’t pick for that problem today, on paper it suits all.

       • “Een Faraday”–that’s awesome. Makes one want to learn Dutch.

         DJW-I asked this same question essentially in the comments to the points preview and the replies were convincing.

5. Whilst Tadej Pogacar is undoubtedly the firm favourite, there have been a few odd signs of small cracks, the the small smile from WvA when TP looked around to ask for a turn at Paris Roubaix, the upset that his partner’s recent crash naturally caused, the crash at Milan San Remo (even if he recovered), the tetchiness towards the end of last season. Probably all adds up to nothing but at some point there will be a crash or ill timed mechanical and pressure can do strange things. Cycling history suggests the path to a fifth tour is often fraught. Not completely convinced by all the media hype about best form ever etc. Issac del Toro is clearly a super “super domestique” but race management has not always been UAE’s forte maybe a weakness there. Also TP’s predilection for attacking from a long way out might work in a classic or the Tour du Suisse but in July can he really hold off a Visma / Red Bull / Decathlon / Lidl Trek led peloton.

   Jonas Vingegaard looks as calm and fit as he has ever been. There have been some team issues, WvA’ absence is not ideal and the background noises about the team cant be helpful, this could even be Visma’s last Tour. There must be minor concerns over his TT form, he was not at the top of his game at the Giro TT, especially as his 2023 win was in good part down to the TT. However (TT aside) he was imperious at the Giro without ever needing to get out of third gear. I would have thought perfect training for the Tour both physically and mentally. If he can out ride TP uphill (a very big if) can he defend on some of the flatter stages (as Inrng points out the cobbles in the last stage)?

   I would think Remco Evenpoel needs a big roll of the dice to be in with a shout of the podium, maybe try to engineer some sort of “ambush” but as above with TP can he really hold off a TdF peloton? Maybe he can do a deal with Tadej Pogacar and they attack together, seems rather fanciful. I think he will come in behind Florian Lipowitz.

   Some of the Paul Seixas hype has faded as a result of his troubles at the Dauphine which must be a good thing ( though not sure rumours of a €13 million per year contract offer is helpful) I would guess he is competing with Issac del Toro & Florian Lipowitz for third.

   Of course the best thing would be if all these suggestions are wildly wrong and we get a Tour for the ages, one can hope

   • PS looking forward to a daily breakfast diet of Inrng previews 🙂

   • @JC One thing I would say about Pog is that in recent years he’s enjoyed plenty of luck and even when he has crashed or even when he has been a bit injured the impact hasn’t been that great. Unfortunately, luck does eventually run out – could even be a mechanical at a really bad time.

     • He very probably lost a LBL and *maybe* – big “maybe” – the subsequent TDF (due to lack in proper depth in training) because of the crash where he broke a wrist. That was 2023, so recent enough.
       He also lost a Roubaix due to a crash, not because he’d have beat MvdP in the velodrome of course but because the latter also suffered an issue in the final kms and had Pogi been with him at that moment (instead of having been delayed by the previous crash), he’d have very probably hold to the line alone.

       Other times he simply could overcome unlucky (?)… mistakes which had happened at quite a bad moment, see this year’s Sanremo. Same for the crash at Strade Bianche. Or cramping during Lombardia’s very finale.

       One thing playing in his favour in crashes (scaramanzia rituals needed here) is his generally (and *relatively*, of course) solid build.

   • Just to continue my ranting replies!!!

     …anything can happen in cycling but all the Pog worries being drummed up pre-tour in this comments section and the one from a few days back are laughable! All these cracks mentioned have immediate and far better counter arguments, plus you’re talking about a rider whose worst result by the end of any race this year is 2nd?

     He’s just won a 5 day Tour de Suisse by 6minutes, as well as three out of four monuments and if you need more: EVERY stage race he’s raced going back over two years now… these results are so out of this world we’re forgetting quite how good he’s been…???

     I cannot see a single crack with huge leaps of imagination.

     He’s a gigantic favourite and it’s a tiny bit generous of INRNG not to have him an entire chain-ring above all the other candidates (no matter how much I like Jonas V given my defence of him above!)

     KevinR’s take of luck is far more sensible, although I have over the years sided far more to you make your own luck most of the time in cycling and there is a reason why some riders crash less than others.

     So yes, mechanicals, illness, crashes happen plus great riders eventually fade – all of these may happen – but there will be no ‘I told you so moments’ as no logical person could see any genuine cracks in his performances this year, as much as they might have/shouldn’t have with his obviously tired performance in last years Amstel Gold.

     On all available recent history any rider will be lucky to be within a minute or even two of Pogacar but hopefully they are because if so we’ll be treated to a brilliant Tour!!!

     • Pogacar has won every one-week stage race he has been in for the last 5 years. That is an extraordinary achievement.

       • But not in the last “five complete seasons”, as he was 3rd in the 2021 Itzulia where he worked for McNulty 😉

         He’s been asolutely exceptional, agreed, although it must be said that since then he “only” raced 6 among the really meaningful short stage races (2 of which in the last couple of months).

         As a term of comparison, in the 5 complete seasons 2019-2023, Roglič won 7 of the main short stage races, losing only one Pa-Ni (which he had in the pocket but managed to lose through multiple crashes in 2021) and an Itzulia.

         So, in order to compare complete seasons:
         Pogi 2021-2025 = 5/6 serious one week stage races + 6/6 minor ones ; Rogla 2019-2023 = 7/9 + 3/3 minor ones.

         Pogi is better with 11/12 vs. 10/12 (will probably be 11/11 once 2026 is over and we’ll check 2022-2026), but – to be frank – marginally so, even more so if we weigh Rogla’s victories.

         Once more, Pogi is particularly exceptional as a whole, being on par or slightly better (or very slightly behind) than the very best in so many specialties, equalling many notable “separate” feats and summing them all in his whole profile.

         • It’s early to think about it but he’s bound to do Itzulia next year in his quest to win new races.

         • Inner Ring: You may be right, but it would be difficult to combine Itzulia with either Flanders or Roubaix.

     • Perhaps worth pointing out that in the previous two TdFs JV has either been recovering from very serious injuries or recovering from concussion (which can take months) and he won the two before that. He has won the last two Grand Tours and convincingly won both one week stage races he entered this year (both had stronger fields than Suisse). Tadej Pogacar has been very impressive but not unbeatable as evidenced at Paris Roubaix, much to his frustration. I suspect if he has a weakness it is mental not physical, he is rarely put under pressure (largely as he is a level above most of the competition) but on the odd occasion when he has he hasnt always managed to come out on top. I do think he is the very strong favourite but Jonas Vinegegaard cannot be ruled out

       • As far as Paris-Roubaix is concerned, surely Pogacar’s second place there to WvA on a dream day, and in the same finishing time, just further demonstrates his unbeatability in this context. After all no other contender mentioned here even dared to start L’enfer du Nord…

6. With Seixas at the Tour I feel like there a lot of parallels with the 15 year old with a really long name who has been selected for the Indian cricket team. Its great, and no doubt they are extremely precocious, but it just feels like too much spotlight and expectation, too soon and there will be some inevitable consequences down the line that everyone can see but can’t stop.

   • Interesting take.

     I’ve struggled with nervousness and pretty much any spotlight always and often feel very sorry for any sportsmen and women, especially the youngest, being torn down in public. It feels brutal and beyond physical harm, close to the worst thing we can do to fellow humans!

     But Seixas at the Tour?
     I cannot stop comparing to Remco not at the Tour back in the day?
     Should Quickstep have sent him there?

     I don’t want to be too critical of Remco because he’s an excellent rider and Quickstep were following the norm back then but looking back on it there are questions?

     If Remco had raced it earlier would he have learnt to quell his temper when things go wrong/he’s losing and so developed a more measured approach to serve him better in stage races later in his career? Or would he maybe he even learnt to harness his skills more consistently to pull the results out of his talent we all suspect are there? Or just got great results earlier before issues came later?

     Or conversely, would we have known sooner that he was a few levels below both Pog and Jonas so his mega-bucks contract would’ve been less likely last year, as the promise of his potential as a multiple TDF winner would’ve faded?

     All questions feel pertinent given Seixas has just been offered a 13million a year contract! If he rides this year and comes up short after week two and we see the start of what becomes a career defining trait *(unlikely I realise, given his talent) – but were he not to take the crazy contract offer, would go on to regret it a few years down the line if that kind of money were not on offer again? Even given all his talent that does feel like a once in a lifetime offer. Although maybe the difference of a few million isn’t a big deal to people in that stratosphere! Saving a few million might but him and extra team mate or two!

     But yes, there’s also the possibility of early pressure, responsibility getting in the way of his development – even if my take is that cycling has changed and you never know what might happen to him in the coming years, so if he’s at the level now then they have to take him. Imagine (god forbid) he has a Bernal-esq crash this winter and never rides the tour? It would be madness not to take him after the season he’s had, pressure or no pressure.

7. I have a soft spot for late starters so will be watching to see if Lipowttz can do any better thsn last year.

   • It’s a big ask. Keen to see how the German media follows him. And if there are big crowds for him in the Vosges and then the Alps.

   • How about your boy Seb Berwick? Dark horse for the mountains jersey? Sneaky top 10?

8. My predictions:
   1. We will all be enriched and entertained while learning more about the history and culture of France and the Tour from our host’s daily Postcards, route descriptions, and analysis of the previous day’s competition.

   2. Matthieu Van der Poel goes in the break almost every day and wins an epic stage.

   3. Paul Seixas proves the doubters wrong and soars to 3rd place behind Jonas Vingegaard on the final podium – taking 2nd place on the Bastille Day stage.

   ========================================

   4. Tadej wins the other 20 stages and takes the yellow jersey by 30+ minutes in Paris…

   • Many great champions have gone from us thinking “how could they ever lose” to “why were we surprised how quickly they stopped winning” over the course of single season, or even single Grand Tour.

9. I’ve been reading The Inner Ring for years and it has been such a good read and resource but I’ve never commented.

   From your write up I would have assumed TP would get five rings and JV three but I was glad to see he was up there with four.

   Obviously TP is a favourite by a long way but I haven’t seen much commentary around this course being suited more to Jonas. I think TP is still the overwhelming favourite but.

   With so many mountain top finishes and crashes, acts of God, etc. notwithstanding, I’d put Jonas in with a significant chance to win.

   • It was close for four or three chainrings but we’ll see how his confident talk proves because as suggested above he does say these things even after he’s been beaten; he can’t really say otherwise either. A good start tomorrow over UAE will be a morale boost.

   • @Shawn. Sadly I don’t. And I’m a Vinny fan.

     He just couldn’t do what Pog did at Suisse.

     I think the only way he can win this Tour is if Pog beats himself or has a problem – health, crash, injury.

     • Maybe, but everyone seems to forget that vin beat pog fair and square 2 years in a row. Maybe it’s only injury that’s held vin back

10. Excellent preview as always many thanks.
    1. TP
    2 DT
    3 JV

    • I’m leaning to this tbh.
      Although currently I’m being boring:
      1.TP
      2.JV
      3.TL

      But I can see Seixas confirming talent into Top3 or Del Toro pushing higher.
      Outside of unforeseen events cannot see any riders beyond those four in top 3.

      One thing that’s not been said in all the nerves around Pog or notes on team disputes, is that if Del Toro is going into this Tour willing to ride for Pog, and nothing suggests otherwise currently, it must be because he sees a clear gap between himself and Pog still which would suggest Pog remains at his terrifying peak.

      • Who is “TL” ??

        • I’m guessing a lypo: FL. Florian Lipowitz.

          • Toro, deL

    • IMO, seems highly implausible that Del Toro finishes ahead of Jonas, unless Jonas gets sick or has a bad crash.

11. To be fair to Lipowitz, the descent where he hesitated is cobbled in the turns, so acquired taste.

    • good note

12. Ok, here we go. A lot of the talk I’m hearing is that Del Toro is ready to step up to the podium, and I think that’s premature. He certainly has the quality, but the only way that he will have the opportunity is if Pog doesn’t need his support at all (i.e., the race is a cakewalk and Politt et al are all he needs). I don’t think this is likely. There is so much uncertainty with this race, and a lot of very good riders (like Remco) know that riding a standard race will give them little chance of a podium, so I expect some unusual tactics that will have to be handled by UAE and Visma. If UAE are smart, they will keep Pog out of the melee as much as possible, unless of course he just rides away on the Tourmalet and takes two minutes out of the pack. Maybe I’m just being optimistic, but for some reason I don’t think that’s going to happen. I see Lipo and Seixas as the best contenders for the third spot, with Pog winning and Vingo second place and well clear of the bunch. But I’m absolutely salivating for Stage 6, which I think will provide a sort-out of the real contenders that we don’t often see in the first week. Fingers crossed that Pog can’t just put the whole peloton in the rear view at the first opportunity.

    • ps – Jorgenson and Kuss will sacrifice everything for Vingo, so Del Toro may have no choice but to follow suit.

      • But that’s because all recent evidence suggests Vinny isn’t at Pog’s level (ie del Toro won’t be needed by him).

      • Kevin, I agree re: Vingo. I think other teams will be more likely to put UAE under pressure. If Red Bull don’t use either Lipo or Remco to do something audacious I think it would be a wasted opporunity.

13. I’m sorry, but you are all crazy – Remco to have his best ever Tour, by a country mile. Won’t beat Pog, but no one can, unless he has illness/bad luck/etc. Go Jonas go!

    • This is the correct answer!

14. I heard on the Cycling Podcast that the GC times will be taken before Montmartre on the final stage, so no GC showdown in Paris.

    • That’s a mistake there. Article 20 of the 2026 rulebook says:

      “The Race Directorate and the College of Commissaires may implement the following measures on the occasion of the finish of stage 21 on the Champs-Élysées circuit in Paris:
      Should the surface of the circuit become slippery prior to entering the final circuit, the official times may be taken at the first crossing of the finish line; Should the surface of the final circuit become slippery during the stage, the official times may be taken at the subsequent crossing of the finish line.”

      Talking of the Cycling Podcast, would recommend their Friend’s of the Podcast “Ca Revient” episode to those interested.

      • If Seixas is in contention I’m picking this would quickly become “times may be taken at the previous crossing of the finish line if at any time it looks like rain”.

      • Thanks! Good to know.

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