The curtain comes down on a thrilling classics season this Sunday. Liège-Bastogne-Liège is unlikely to see action from start to finish and if it did you couldn’t see it as it’s not live from start to finish either. But the final hour promises a lively battle with Pogačar facing a challenge from Remco Evenepoel and Paul Seixas and with this the hierarchy of world cycling is on the line in Liège. Possibly.
The Route: 259km and 4,395m of vertical gain. This year’s route is different to last year, both in the longer ride out to Bastogne and then the course back. The section to Bastogne for the first 95km is hilly and full of uncategorised climbs but on larger roads than the return.
After Bastogne the route starts taking smaller roads and tackling the often forested climbs. The final 100km are the same as recent years with the Wanne-Stockeu-Haute Levée climbs chased by the Col du Rosier before the nervous long descent through Spa and then the Maquisard and Desnié climbs in quick succession before another tricky long descent to Remouchamps.
La Redoute and the steep open climb is 1.5km at close to 10% and with long 15% sections two thirds of the way up and at the finish. Again comes the “new” right turn at the top, a small descent and then the Hotchamps drag up, 1km at 5.5% with a middle section at 7%. Then comes an exposed section and then comes the Côte des Forges a steady on a wide road.
The Côte de La Roche-aux-Faucons is listed as 1.5km at 10%, this is hard enough but after a brief descent of a few seconds it starts rising again to the village of Boncelles and this second section is 1.6km long with a gradient of 5.5% which isn’t steep but with all the climbing before, both cumulatively in the day and the sharp effort just before, it’s a difficult moment and where the winning move often forms and those beaten can’t or won’t chase. You can see this second part of the climb on the profile below. As the final climb it’s the make-or-break moment for many.
The Finish: the wooded descent into Liège and then some big boulevards in the streets of Liège before the finish on the banks of the Meuse.
The Contenders
Tadej Pogačar (UAE) has won the last three editions he’s finished. His first win was instructive, out-sprinting for others in Liège as it’s a weapon he can use again while the other two wins were solo triumphs. The synthesis is he can aim to go solo on the climb of La Redoute but if anyone can stay with him then he’s got the Roche aux Faucons climb to try again and if not then still has a sprint to rely on. His team will setting a relentless pace from early on, sapping everyone else. The track record, the versatility and the team all make him the prime pick.
Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) is a double winner here but each time in the absence of Pogačar so if the Slovenian is here for the finish, how to win? He might fancy his chances in a sprint against Pogačar, a gamble but possibly his best bet as while he’s won plenty from going solo, giving Pogačar the slip in the final hour sounds like a lot to ask for. Ideally he could spring free during a chaotic moment in the race but this is contingent on moving before Pogačar or the idea that the Slovenian is reeled in.
After repeatedly surpassing expectations Paul Seixas (Decathlon-CMA CGM) faces a new test. Each time we wonder if he can climb, descend or time trial, he aces it. Now can he sprint if he arrives in Liège with Pogačar? It’s framed that way as it’s hard to imagine him riding away solo. He’s good but surely not ahead of Pogačar yet but it’ll be interesting to see how he climbs and whether he can eject Evenepoel.
The “hierarchy of world cycling is at stake” to cite France’s RMC radio – coincidentally owned by the shipping tycoon that owns CMA CGM – because of the notion that were Seixas to sack Pogačar then the pecking order of the sport would be changed. Maybe that is more a question of years than hours away. One thing we saw in the Basque Country is Seixas is a Sartrean “hell is other people” mentality where he did not want to suffer the attacks of others, preferring to accelerate early and ride away on the climb of San Miguel de Aralar; we saw a bit of this in the Flèche too where he set the pace all the way up rather than wait and observe like most debutants might. So we’ll see if he deploys this on La Redoute.
Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) has returned to racing at the Tour of the Alps after a crash in Catalunya and had his “worst day on the bike” one day and won a stage the next. This seems typical of the rider who can thrill on some days but not always. He’s chasing his form and this makes him a harder pick still.
Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) rode the Brabantse Pijl, went in the breakaway and then when caught, still sprinted for fourth place. Two days later he was a few metres short on the Cauberg and still sprinted for fourth place in the Amstel. He probably had to ride the Pijl because the team needs UCI points but this effort might have cost him for the Amstel. Now he’ll be more refreshed but how to win? If he’s able to sprint for the win he’s got a chance.
Lidl-Trek have Mattias Skjelmose and Giulio Ciccone with the former in form and the second made for a course like this but so often a contender but rarely delivering a win.
Kévin Vauquelin (Ineos) crashed out of the Amstel and finished the Flèche Wallonne on a team mates’ bike. If he can avoid mishaps then he could be in the finale. Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X) has quietly had a good spring. Mauro Schmid (Jayco) has done even better and is a handy finisher.
Long shot picks have it hard. The interesting thing will be whether teams fire some of their top contenders forward early in the hope that a quality group gives UAE a hard time chasing and they can stay clear beyond La Redoute by which time if they get swept up they can still have the option on a result. But who wants to do this, especially knowing that if UAE closes them down before La Redoute then their day is done when if the try to sit tight they can salvage a top-10/20 and some UCI points. Still Quinn Simmons did this in Lombardia and got fourth. As this preview is about exploring the winners for the race this is probably the route to victory for the likes of Alex Baudin (EF) or Emiel Verstrynge (Alpecin-PremierTech) to cite three outsiders but pick among more like Cristian Scaroni (XDS-Astana), Ivan Romeo (Movistar) or Alex Aranburu (Cofidis) but again all conditional on going and staying clear in a race when UAE look likely to steamroller the field.
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Pogačar |
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Evenepoel, Seixas |
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Grégoire, Pidcock, Skjelmose, Schmid, Vauquelin |
Weather: sunny and 19°C. A northerly breeze of 9-12km/h means a light tailwind for the ride out to help whip the bunch along but much of the course later is sheltered in woodland as it twists back.
TV: local coverage is on RTBF and begins at 11.40am CEST on the Tipik channel but is this live? Possinly not before switching to La Une/RTB1 at 13.35 CEST, the same time Eurosport and others will begin broadcasts and presumably when the live video goes on air.
The finish is due for 4.20pm CEST and the final hour includes La Redoute. Tune in or log on to see who is in the early break. You may find little seems to happen on the early climbs but this is often because the pace is so high few dare to escape.
Women’s Liège-Bastogne-Liège: Demi Vollering (FDJ-Suez) as the obvious pick but if Puck Pieterse (Fenix-PremierTech) can stick to her wheel and neutralise attacks then it’s advantage the latter for any sprint contest. The finish is due for 5.55pm CEST. As loyal readers will know by know, ProCyclingUK.com does a full preview.
Love the Sartre quote! I say it a lot and was quite happy to see it here!
Agree, though much better in french 😉
I say this every year and probably am in the minority, but growing up watching LBL in the 90’s, I can’t help but miss the days where it finished up the long drag to Ans, with the twisty and sharp roads through the housing estate before. I have same thoughts about the modern Ronde circuit, but at least then we get to relive the old Ronde route thanks to Omloop
The “new” finish in Liège has proved better in the women’s race where we’ve seen a lot more happen in recent years whereas for the men it’s tended to be settled by Roche aux Faucons thanks to Pogačar and Evenepoel.
The old finish comes out well in the photos though, the long climb with the houses arranged diagonally up the slope. It had a lot of local politics behind it with bitter rivalries at play to attract the race.
The problem with the Ans finish was that the riders would wait until Ans before attacking. Hence a large group would get to the bottom at Ans and then fight it out. The new finish means there is action from earlier in the race: this would normally make the race more interesting (except Pogacar is in the race, and rides solo from La Redoute).
I’m so excited for this!
Don’t think Seixas will stay with Pog but even if he’s close of La Redoute it’s pretty incredible. I hope you all enjoy too!
I’m hoping that when I wake up here in California there will still be a race to watch! I’m counting on Remco and Seixas to hang on to Pogi’s coattails and make it as fun as MSR and Roubaix. Although that’s a lot to ask…but let’s be greedy!
Cofidis says Alex Aranburu is sick and will not start.
Long shot anyway. He and others fit the bill but it’s just hard to see the break lasting. UAE caught the breakaway two years ago with ~90km still to go. But all the more reason to send stronger riders away.
While I think it’ll be Pogacar first and daylight second, I’ll be interested to see how Skjelmose goes. I read or heard he had a cold at Amstel and yet didn’t seem threatened by Evenepoel’s until the sprint finish. While I suspect Evenepoel wanted a sprint to rebalance his loss in one last year, Skjelmose with another week of recovery could threaten tonight (NZ time).
Threaten is probably too strong a word for it! Join the also rans is probably more like it…
He seems to thrive in the Ardennes, his breakthrough was a win in the Tour of Luxembourg too. But how to win? A top-5 today is almost expected.
I think I would go with 5 chainrings for Pogacar, 3 for Evenepoel and 1 for Seixas. Everyone else is a big outsider for a win, if not necessarily the podium. Its a shame for Pidcock that he had his crash, it would’ve been interesting to see how he went in this and the other Ardennes races in top form. If Seixas gets anywhere near winning then we really are looking at something pretty special.
Was going to post a comment along the lines of “hope we dont see another dull procession as in De Ronde” but that is clearly not going to be the case even if the break eventually gets pulled back.
Good to see the scenario of a rebellion against UAE underway and with a lot of riders, including Novak, up front.
Remarkable. One of my favourite things about the last few years is how often the longest races have become worth watching so far out from the finish – a favourite in a genuine move with 205km to go? Incredible – if he pulls this off I’ll have to eat some words from a few days ago.
Might actually watch this now…interesting to see that others teams up front have pulled as well, wondered if they would just look at Remco at Red Bull but it probably does give them a better chance of a good result than having the main peloton back.
With points and so at stake, it would be just crazy for a team like Pic Nic not to push hard on the front (but also FDJ, and even Movistar or NSN or Q36.5 etc.). Pic Nic is obvious as they’re up there in force and in strong need of points, but the others teams named also could be interested in just scoring and don’t lose any of their chance behind if they spend one of their men ahead to work hard while protecting the other one, then just have a look at what Q. Hermans, G. Martin, Neilands/Frigo, Formolo etc can grab in terms of points if they are allowed a couple of minutes or three of advantage. Again, let me insist, in terms of points.
Those minutes might mean the difference between scoring 15 or 150…
Eenkhorn and De Plus. Quickstep and INEOS.
The only ones helping ahead.
The teams which didn’t even probably need it that much – but well done.
It’s a question of mentality, apparently.
I guess Pic Nic tried because they’re falling back, so I supposed they worked, although I didn’t see it or listened to that reported. Bad strategy by the rest, they just burnt their athletes on the front. Especially absurd move by Uno-X several kms ago when they tried to break up the group and go away as a break of 3, two of them along with Sainbayar Jambaljamts.
But maybe Cort or Ulissi or Q. Hermans win this and I’ll eat my hat.
Spanish for cycling 1-0-1 by the ES commenters… on the front they’re now “hueveando” con “gilicortes”, hence now the opportunity is essentially lost for most.
At its peak the first split had 52 riders, representing 24 of the 25 teams on the start line.
Reminds me of the 2012 Olympic Road Race when the Brits told the world how they were going to win the race, only for Stuart O’Grady to marshal a grand alliance of riders not interested in contesting a sprint finish against Mark Cavendish.
Hopefully this one has a more legitimate finish.
One of the best races and finales in years!
in years? we’ve been spoilt recently? both this and last year MSRs were excellent, last year Amstel excellent, this year Roubaix excellent, ’24 Flanders excellent… and the few years just before great also?
or are you just talking about LBL? if so yes, this was the best since 2021? but 2020 was great also, the infamous Alaphillipe celebration.
in all honesty I’ve never loved LBL, but it’s incredible watching Seixas announce himself today, the TDF is going to be wild this year. I’m already wondering how far Seixas might push Jonas for 2nd, if he’s got the stamina to last the three weeks and avoids incidents – although I don’t want to be disrespectful to Jonas!
@oldDAVE
No, I was answering to the above and speaking of the 2012 Olympic RR.
This Liège was fine but not much above mediocre for me. Pogi played with Seixas, Remco lost his mind, little more. Seixas’ great race was the extra which lift the show a bit, indeed.
My question now is when does Remco go? Cote de Wanne? Feels a long way but a minute head start on Pog and not much in the way of teams left?
Longer he leaves it smaller the gap is but Pog has less help and less time to the finish.
No, the boycott party got what they wanted and blew the break to push 4-5 of theirs ahead in a typical useless minibreak which won’t win and won’t score. Why that? No idea. Guess Uno-X, Alpecin, maybe Pic Nic are better friends of UAE than Bora’s or their own interests. Total lack of strategic view by most once again.
A good effort by Wellens just the same.
Good for Seixas, good on Remco for at least trying to go early even if it didn’t work out. The rest, well, hopefully after another couple years of winning everything, breaking all relevant records, surpassing Merckx, etc Pogacar will growed tired of it and retire, and we can return to races actually being suspenseful rather than dull processions leading to his inevitable victory.
It’s like the monotony of the Valverde Ardennes years but stretched across the entire season. Why watch? You know the outcome in advance.
Remco at pre-race press conference (source – cycling news):
“…We shouldn’t be surprised if he [Seixas] struggles in the final hour…”
That didn’t age well.
Last year’s record average speed 41.983 km/h
Today’s average speed 44.426 km/h