Giro d’Italia Stage 16 Preview

A stage in Switzerland or Svizzera to locals, and also a share of the pro peloton and more.

The Route: just 113km but 3,000m of vertical gain amid a strange route. It’s up the valley, then a turning to the right into a side valley for two laps with the steep but regular climb of Leontica. Then back down to the main valley again where there’s a drag up to the intermediate sprint.

The Finish: this south-facing finish is steep with lots of 10% sections and has featured in the Tour de Suisse, Adam Yates won here in 2024 alongside João Almeida. The first 8km are the hardest and then comes a small descent through the village of Campello but it’ll on a straight road, not easy for outsider to float away. Then once out of the village it’s onto the main ski station access road, wider and steadier; that 13% max on the graphic above is only from taking the inside line through a hairpin.

The Contenders: if Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-LAB) wants to win then he can. He and his team can copyi tactics from Saturday’s Alpine stage by putting his team to work. There’s even less time for the breakaway to form, then build up a lead. The big question is whether he wants to freewheel to Rome instead and spare his team mates today.  The small question is if he could try to get Davide Piganzoli into a winning position, easier said than done as Felix Gall is out-climbing him.

If not there’s space for some riders to win. There might be a looming energy crisis but this is not bothering Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) and his darting attacks are lively but perhaps today he needs to get in the breakaway and hide while a couple of team mates like Sobrero and Ghebreigzabhier pull on the front of the group to tow him clear. He seems the best pick, Enric Mas (Movistar) is short of form and his team management have said this out loud, Einer Rubio is not looking decisive either.

Jan Christen (UAE) winning in Switzerland should be more than appropriate but he’s looking less and less sizzling.

Vingegaard
Ciccone, Piganzoli
Mas, Rubio, Vlasov

Weather: 33°C in the valley, 24°C at the finish.

TV: KM0 is at 2.00pm and the finish is forecast for 5.15pm CEST.

Postcard from Bellinzona
Today’s stage is 100% Swiss but the Giro ought to feel at home as the canton of Ticino is home to many. Literally, for example Filippo Ganna lives in Ascona just near the start and the area has long been home for Italian cyclists looking to save on tax and also live somewhere more private.

Leave Bellinzona in another direction and a few minutes away is Lamone which is home to… the UAE team. It’s where the team is legally based even if it has a servizio corse near Bergamo in Italy. It inherited both from its past as the Lampre team but has stayed here. For all the promotion of the UAE as a country it says something that the team opts not to have their legal base there.

Similarly Aussie team Jayco is based here. Riders who sign with the team have a contract with “GreenEDGE Cycling SAGL”, a Swiss company in nearby Lugano.

Teams are free to shop around for the jurisdiction to suit. Unibet Rose Rockets ride under a French flag but only because Dutch teams are forbidden from promoting gambling companies like Unibet and so the squad has a postal/legal address in French, stone’s through from the Belgian border and nothing more French; team cars have Dutch plates etc. Belgian team Soudal-Quickstep is legally run out of Luxembourg but elects for a Belgian flag when it registers with the UCI.

As suggested here before Decathlon-CMA CGM could finance Paul Seixas’s new contract by switching to a Swiss jurisdiction, all while keeping a French flag and licence but no longer paying French payroll taxes; former Groupama-FDJ boss Marc Madiot used to quip his highest paid rider was the tax office as it took more of the wage bill than anyone else. But Decathlon is also backed by two of the richest families in France and so it may not be bothered either.

Today’s stage though is not about taxes, but the fun of it which is what matters. This Swiss stage is the work of several locals including Rocco Cattaneo, an ex-pro who’s been senior at the UCI, president of the European Cycling Union, and has been a Swiss parliamentarian too. They hosted the Tour de Suisse here in 2024 and had such a great time they approached the Giro and were awarded the stage. The only hiccup is they had other plans for the route but ended up with today’s 110km micro-stage but they get their finish in Carì and another day to party.

42 thoughts on “Giro d’Italia Stage 16 Preview”

  1. Suspect Vingo will go for the last 3 mountain stages both to make a statement – match Pogacar’s 6, remind everyone he is the clear 2nd-best and only realistic challenger to the crown – and as previously noted a high-profile string of victories can only help in the search for a new sponsor. And as long as his can team can keep the breaks in hand, which seems feasible, he should succeed. A gift to Piganzoli would be nice but as good as the young guy has been he hasn’t proven he can consistently drop the Hindley/Pelizzari/Arensman cohort, let alone Gall. Or idk maybe I’m wrong and he’ll cruise into Rome, but I think Jonas wants to put a stamp of authority on the race then turn up at the TDF with no pressure (if you lose it’s expected, if you can hang with Pogacar once it hits the mountains then who knows).

    • Suspect Vinny and the team will actually try to balance winning stages for potential sponsor visibility and using the least amount of energy with the Tour in mind (perhaps with some in-race training intervals included).

      Not sure 6 stages is as significant to Vinny/Visma as winning the Giro and joining the select group of riders who have won all 3 GTs before Pog does it, with the potential to be the holder of all 3 GT titles at once (slim chance in France if Pog is firing on all cylinders).

      • Maybe you’re right! We’ll know soon enough. Personally I never underestimate the competitiveness of high-level athletes.

    • In my mind, Vingegaard doesn’t seem to be the type to “make a statement”. I think he will be happy to win the stage if it is easy enough to do so, but won’t burn down his team for the win.

  2. If Gall/Decathlon are feeling good today may be a repeat of the Corno alle Scale stage, Gall will want a time buffer before all the descending on Friday’s tappone stage and gain time on the Bora duo who may not be at 100% yet. Jonas can be content to follow and attack once out of the village.
    Jonas wants to win at least one stage while wearing the pink jersey and today and Saturday are his best chances I think.

  3. 33C is warm. If the pace is high it might contribute to someone having a bad day.

    This Giro is Visma’s to lose, but the podium spots are still up for grabs.

  4. I’m a bit deflated that the route today is so meh, considering what they could have done. It’s the most wonderful place to ride a bike. My understanding is that they went for this safe option fearing another disaster with the potential for rainy snowy weather still this time of year at altitude. Of course, we’re in the middle of one of the hottest stretches of weather we’ve ever had for this time of May. I guess there’s no way to predict these things, especially with climate change messing everything up.

  5. I’m finding this a very strange Giro?

    To start with I suspected Jonas was riding below his best, not just because he was not at his peak but also simply to save himself for the TDF. This had me a tiny bit disgruntled because as a viewer it felt like it was taking away from the spectacle, to have a top rider making a choice to go at 75% in favour of a later race.

    I was clearly wrong about this as I had not realised Jonas was ill and this was what was stopping him from his riding his current best, despite not being at his peak.

    Even so I’m finding it very hard to shake the feeling I’m struggling to enjoy this race as much as I do a normal Giro? I’m not adverse to a Stage race being a foregone conclusion, nor lower tier riders competing for a prestigious title (as the Giro has occasionally been recently) – but there’s something about this years particular mix of a rider with a touch less star quality than his usual competition, plus a gulf in class between his current competition that’s highlighting how much the Giro is seems like a division b affair from the heights of the classics just gone and the upcoming TDF.

    As a long time watcher I know this comes and goes and the Giro has had this tag from detractors for a long time, it’s likely just swings and roundabouts and soon we might be back to excellent Giro’s followed by sub-par TDF’s (as happened last generation) but I’m feeling the issue of the Giro in the TDF’s shadow being especially pronounced this year.

    I hope the final week throws up surprises to change my mind and gladly welcome those who disagree to point out what I’m missing, it may well be my issue rather than the races this year! Or maybe I’ve simply found my entire view of cycling dramatically altered since 2020 so races I may have enjoyed a decade or two ago, I know have a different opinion toward?

    • Generally agree with this. In part this is down to the course design which is nowhere near the level of some in the not too distant past eg 2017 & 2018. The entire second week felt like an Intermezzo, there did not seem to be any narrative. Today is a half baked stage, not a proper GT mountain stage (start in Domodossola and a ride along the railway into Switzerland would have added significantly- I am sure Bellinazona would pay more). Sunday’s criterium stage just added to this, it really should have been the final day (in which case no polemica about neutralisation) and make a stage around Rome along the lines of some of the recent Naples stages. This would surely keep everyone happy and the money rolling in for RCS.

      Added to this is the current situation where there are a few riders head and shoulders above the rest. If only one of them turns up at a particular race then it all becomes somewhat pointless as the winner is pretty much known from the outset. No sign of that changing much in the near future. Though if Remco Evenepoel had turned up we might have seen a genuine competition, especially with the longish TT.

    • I too am not enjoying this Giro that much, though in my case as I can no longer justify paying the TV subscription costs I’m having to follow it secondhand via articles, social media, blogs, podcasts, etc. so it’s difficult to know if I would enjoy it any more if I was actually watching it live. I can’t say it’s really below my expectations though as the combination of the route lacking multiple epic mountain stages & knowing beforehand that Vingegaard would win if he stayed upright meant that my expectations were low coming into it.

    • I feel quite similar. I believe it is simply because the really exciting riders (and those that make you emotionally invested) are not present and there are no intriguing storylines to follow.

      E.g. Narvaez, three stage wins and I could not care less. The guy is simply not interesting.

      The highlights until now are the wins for Bettiol, Segart and Arrieta, which is pretty weak.

    • For now, I agree with your general evaluation. And I don’t expect it to change radically through the third week, but it’s fair to wait for it to fully develop. However, the Giro used to have a powerful second weekend, which has been weakened a lot in the last four or five years, surely one of the worst legacies from Vegni and his not always well-oriented idea of “helping the riders”.

      OTOH, I paradoxically enjoyed *watching* this Giro more often than not because it frequently had very interestingly ridden stages. I enjoyed it even much more than last TDF because there was more variety, not just every kind of stage turned into a dragster competition of what engine endured the biggest horsepower without blowing up. And I’m speaking of the fight for the stages, not even GC. That was athletically great, of course, and I absolutely root for MvdP or Healy etc., but frankly wasn’t that great a show once it was repeated again and again, not to speak of the mountain stages…
      In this case, instead, all the 2nd week stages were really good and offered very different and sometimes unexpected scripts (even the ITT, save for Ganna).
      Cosenza and Potenza were also great stages, and the Grande Partenza, all in all, was also good. For now, I really got bored and disappointed only in the first Italian weekend, st. 8 & 9.
      The Blockhaus wasn’t fireworks but if one thinks well about it, it was even better than what could be expected on paper. Visma rode it very well and was good to watch, same for Aosta.
      At the end of the day, we had a lot of interesting racing, but of course it required to be watching, and watching for quite long, to be enjoyed – the mere narration of results is rather simple or poor because GC offers so little.
      Behind Pogi at the Giro the GC fight was even poorer than it is this year, but admittedly, and as a Pogi fan, I think that the Slovenian in himself created much more interesting race situations due to his usual attitude (even if on Prati di Tivo he, too, was quite boring, of course…).

    • I’m worried that it also reflects the gap between teams and not just gc candidates. There’s a very strong gc team and a very strong breakaway team and it’s turned out that one sprint team seems to have done much better than the others (thanks partly to treks disfunction, it seems). So far it’s only really Astana and Bahrain who have challenged that. Given that Astana are now big budget, effectively, I wonder if it’s a consequence of inequality and that things aren’t going to change too much for the other two tours.

  6. An entertaining GC is not something that happens very often. I like the breakaway stages. Saturday I switched off when JV attacked. Last Wednesday was a cracker. Of course I did not tune into the Milan stage on Sunday. Should have known about homie Dversnes’ plan. I love foiled sprint stages.

  7. As a mere curiosity, this stage is being really good for now, against what I expected. Let’s see how it ends up, obviously.
    Generally speaking, many stages, including the eventually mediocre Marche one, have had an amazing first couple of hours. Really another level, not commonly seen even at the TDF, even less so with such continuity stage after stage.
    Might be a mere coincidence, but the most similar Giro in that sense was 2022, which in general terms was probably the worst in well over a decade. I don’t know if the cyclists are then so destroyed that things necessarily prove themselves less exciting in the finales or, as I mentioned above, it’s just pure chance.

    People are now getting dropped and the peloton thorn into pieces on a 5km-5% “climb” after mere 30 km of racing! Visma try to spread broad across the road to stop it but people are jumping from either sides.

    • May I ask, why you quite often refer to 2022 as one of the worst Giro’s in recent memory?
      Personally I have quite good memories about that edition. Just of the top of my head, MVDP vs. Girmay, Etna, Napoli, Torino and finally Hindley cracking Carapaz.

      • Etna?! On such a climb, the “best guys” already leaving over 2’30” to a break, 20 riders arriving together in the “selected group” as on any Montevergine. And that was a sign of many things to come, GC men avoiding attacking hard each other. On Blockhaus the excuse was the wind (just check this year… even more windy), but then it was mountain stage after mountain stage lacking serious GC action while most of them ended up being given out to many, well, honest but not exceptional riders, the Bouwman or Hirt or Oldani. Buitrago was probably the top quality man surfacing from any of those stages.
        In Cogne, again 25 athletes in the “selected group”, after 4K of altitude gain… even when there was a little more action, between half a dozen and a dozen riders were often arriving together.
        I had liked the Hungarian stages, the Démare ones with the fight for the sprinters left behind uphill trying to come back, and Naples, too, but the good ones instead of being more and more common as the three weeks went on, instead became more rare, with Torino as the absolute highlight and indeed a stage for historical memory. Barely anything else until that late attack by Hindley on Fedaia… where, anyway, it was Covi who won.

        A couple of great stages, three or four decent ones, then so many void stages, and barely any GC actions across the three weeks? The definition of a “classic TDF” (before the current age), surely not a Giro. It doesn’t sound so terrible only because what followed wasn’t great, either (2023 is another decent competitor for a “worst Giri” top-5 in the last 20 years; 2024 was entertaining but had no GC competition – even if at least we had attacks…).

        As OldDave says, it’s cycles… we had a great 2010-2021 dozen of years after a shady previous phase, things come and go. And there’s no reason to believe it will be another mediocre block of 12 editions, things can change faster.

      • You can probably go back and read the comments here, the sense is that we were waiting and waiting for the GC race to come alive and it was only late when Kämna did that big pull to launch Hindley and separate him from Carapaz and Landa, we got it and that was that.

        It’s not a perfect rule and subject to taste etc but a good grand tour often sees the overall lead changing regularly, including back and forth between the top contenders in the last week etc.

  8. I can understand why many comments are about this Giro being disappointing, but I get the sense that it’s mostly because people find Jonas boring. I am not a Pogi fan, and even though he races very aggressively I find his races exceedingly dull except when he’s at a disadvantage (Roubaix) or pushed to his limit by Visma. This Giro has suffered from some odd choices in terms of stage design, but stage by stage it has been pretty entertaining. If you focus on everything aside from the maglia rosa, it’s been enjoyable although obviously not great. Someone mentioned above that Narvaez is not interesting, and that’s definitely true compared to the likes of Healy or Remco, but he has been very dynamic and has a real chance to take ciclamino, which would be a great accomplishment. The race for the podium is also exceedingly tight. Which means exciting racing in the final weekend. Compare that to the last two TdFs, where the last week has had exactly zero gc drama unless you count the two minutes when Visma make their move and we find out that Pogi is fine and that’s that.

    • I get your point, but 2024 was incredibly exciting until PDB (included) – two full weeks. And not bad after that, either, with Remco and Vingo fighting for their respective podium spots.

      I didn’t like 2025, agreed. The first half was entertaining but nothing exceptional, then Hautacam ended it up. And wasn’t good to watch, either.

      As I commented above, let’s wait the full three weeks, agreed. Friday is a great stage albeit short. I wouldn’t anyway assume that it’s 100% assured to be great, in order to compare it with other GTs.

      Pogi at the 2024 Giro was to me much more interesting than Vingegaard’s been at this Giro, barring Pila; ok, health reasons, but that’s how things went on the road. Blockhaus was fine but nothing more, Corno alle Scale to me was even poor.

      Mottolino was vibrant, with Pogi attacking a dozen kms from the line and Quintana 3 minutes ahead, on the Grappa he went over 30 kms from the line. He tried hard to win the first stage (and lost), went hard on Oropa despite the flat and not having information instead of sitting and waiting, attacked again on a flattish stage (not succeeding).

      Vingegaard isn’t a defensive rider at all, quite the contrary, and we’ll see more from him in this Giro, for sure, feel assured that I’d have paid from my own pockets to have one more Vingegaard around 10 years ago, or 20, or 25… but Pogacar is spectacular for the way he normally rides (not always… check TDF 25), daring to go when he could as well keep it easier. Even when he ends up losing as in TDF 2022. Pogi tends to go for new grounds, and that makes him more entertaining than most of the rest of granted winners. But I don’t agree that this should a reason to blame or underestimate Vingegaard… what about Indurain and Froome (barring famous exceptions), then?

      • I think 2024 Giro to some extent depends on your expectations going into it. I thought he was playing with his food the entire time, which I guess you could say the same about Visma in 2026…
        As for the rest of the race, looks like you were right about how today sets up Friday. Get your popcorn ready.

        • The UAE as expected messed it up a little more than Visma is doing, which forced Pogi to take more risks if he wanted to win, and so in Pogi’s case there was often more of an aggressive approach.
          Not very credible to say “he was playing with his food” in Turin or Fossano, for obvious reasons – nobody likes to go hard and fail.
          And on Oropa, too, all that looking behind wasn’t like a rider in total control, not at all – how often have you seen him doing that?
          Prati di Tivo was already a different affair and, yes, toying around and training more than anything else. Totally what you say. As the previous ITT had shown, he had then touched the desired peak condition.
          But even in Livigno, in that case only due to his team’s mediocre organisation, he eventually had to go from far and pushing harder than expected (as he wanted to win there for personal reasons).
          I doubt quite much that he was being “playing”, counting on that final difference of… less than 30″, for a total effort which went well beyond 30 minutes. He was probably quite sure of the final result in the very last couple of hard kms, not as much for the previous half an hour. Which didn’t prevent him from trying.

          As I said, something as stimulating might still happen this year, but there’s a huge difference in mentality. Just listened to Jonas’ interview today: “Why did you want to win today?” – “I wanted a victory in pink, so I thought we’d better start trying today so that in case we failed I’d have had further options” or “It’s a long climb, a 30 minutes one!”.
          All very rational, indeed, but also a sense of understatement and “whateverness”, which OTOH I guess might be what appeals his fans; perhaps he gets across as more human. I, for one, may not like much the photo kissing on TV as such (maybe it reminds me too much one of the low points of Ivan Basso – whom I rooted for) yet, I deeply appreciate Vingo’s outspoken declarations on family being one of his absolute priorities.

          Finally, I’m now less optimist, actually, about Friday. The 3 riders fighting for 2 podium spots are too close between them and won’t want to take risks too soon. They’ll even help keeping the race tight in case anybody else within 10 minutes from them should try to move, and we’re speaking of three super teams. So, I’m afraid it’s hard we’ll see anybody with a decent combination of capabilities and form being given much of a margin. I’d be crazy happy to be proven wrong, of course. And I kind of expect Gee, O’Connor, Storer to try anyway (it would be a good idea for Rondel, too, but he doesn’t like much going in a early break). Harper’s been a good example. He struggled on some more explosive stages, but he made for the time he lost and more anticipating the favourite’s group, then not falling down like a stone once brought back.

          • Three riders going for two spots is fun, although you might be right that the tight margins could make for conservative racing. All the guys at 5 minutes+ could make it really chaotic, but it does seem like Red Bull, Decathlon and Visma can shut down anything they want to. At this point, JV’s definitely playing with his food 🙂

    • I haven’t minded how boring it’s been. 99 percent of cycling is boring–like baseball–and Vingegaard is an impressive rider.

      My biggest disappointment from this race is that Pellizzari has not done better. Today was a disaster for him. Was he ill? Off day? As a (hopefully) future Italian I had been pulling for him.

        • Piganzoli definitely best italian ! 🙂

          I prefered too the Pogacar Giro, from what I remember. Pogacar being completely the strongest is more fun than Vingegaard being completely the strongest, if I have to choose. Let’s hope for a race where the strongest in not so far the strongest…
          I often missed the beginning of the stages, and haven’t been very excited by a stage for now in this Giro. Stage 5 was funny, but not really due to the quality of the contestants… The Segaert stage had a nice ending. I haven’t felt in this Giro the kind of excitation I felt yesterday in the finale of the Antwerp Port Epic, for example. I had a few shivers in the Blokhaus stage, but that’s all…
          If gabriele or TheOtherCraig absolutely want the TdF comparison, there was a couple of much nicer stages in the last Tdf (Toulouse or Rouen) as far as I’m concerned 🙂

          • I agree: Pogi dominating is more fun. I recall wanting to see him win 12 stages. He just has more style. But Vingegaard today was really impressive. He barely seemed bothered by the climb.

          • As I said, I was entertained by the first half of last TDF and it was *athletically exceptional* but it often lacked variety and tactical nous. Sometimes it made me think of a
            hyper-hormonated-headless chicken race.
            I had circled in red the stages you name and can’t say I was really disappointed… although partially so, yes, even if I can’t focus exactly why. Perhaps I’d have expected some more GC thrill in Toulouse and some more rush to anticipate Pogi in Rouen.
            I suppose that the moot second part casts an unfair shadow on tje first one, too, like it could be a great aperitivo but if that’s the whole dinner, ouch.

            In the Giro’s case, instead, several stages proved way more lively than it could be expected on paper, and offered a broad variety of tactical situations. Even more important, nearly all of them provided some spark of interest – the sprint draught even had me watching avidly the closing in to Naples.
            To me, this Giro is being like a fine TV series, better than Netflix’s current standard albeit lower than some of the Golden Age’s historical masterpieces.
            Last TDF was clearly a botched great movie by some “authorial” director gone Hollywood but ruined by the star cast and FX available.

          • gabriele, love the film anology. I’m thinking of one of those movies where from the beginning you think it’s one of the greatest movies ever, but the director just can’t hold it together and the last half hour of the film drags to a predictable ending.

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