A scenic start and a sporting finish. We’ll see if Mathieu van der Poel can match Tadej Pogačar.
Stage 1 Review: the sun was out and so was the public. Plenty of teams were trying new cooling methods at the start, Netcompany-Ineos placed their forearms in troughs of cold water; Alpecin-PremierTech sucked frozen popsicles.
Come the finish plenty got a cold shower after their plans came unstuck. Groupama-FDJ set the fastest time for a while but suffered a crash with Clément Berthet injured and out of the Tour. Netcompany wobbled when Egan Bernal started to sit on, then Kévin Vauquelin punctured before Ganna stormed to the finish but they’d prove eight seconds short. The Frenchman was absent while his team mates sat on the hotseats, perhaps screams of despair could be heard coming from the team bus?
Movistar saw Cian Uijtdebroeks cramp, he’s almost two minutes down on GC already. RedBull’s leadership issue isn’t settled but Evenepoel rode away, kein Lipo-suction with the German unable hold the wheel and giving up 16 seconds.
UAE shed riders mid-course, Nils Politt was on Pogačar’s wheel and paid for it, rinsed in lactic acid after eight minutes. It meant Pogačar launched into the Montjuic climbs with a a deficit he couldn’t make up despite being the fastest in the finale to don the polka-dot jersey. A headline loss but relative the fitness test suggests advantage Slovenia.
Lidl-Trek did well but no fairy tale for Barcelona’s son Juan Ayuso, 15 seconds off the pace and derailed because Mathias Skjelmose saddle rails snapped when he should have been Ayuso’s lead out.
Visma-LAB won the stage and visibly looked the most cohesive, retaining more riders later on in the course by resting them on the first part. The stage win and above all Vingegaard back in yellow for the first time since 2023, an old acquaintance renewed.
It marked a thrilling stage. The “Paris-Nice” format has been fun from a something-to-talk-about-on-a-Tuesday-in-March perspective. This time with the high stakes of the Tour de France it was electrifying.
What to do with the yellow jersey? That’s more a question once Stage 2 is done. If Jonas Vingegaard can keep it then he might be willing to lend it out to the breakaway on Monday’s stage. He’ll have to match Pogačar on this stage to contain the Slovenian more than to keep yellow.
The Route: a spin up the Costa Daurada in two parts, the regular coastal road and then the more scenic Costes del Garraf.
Then it’s inland for the road to Begues, a steady climb on a regular road but it matters for the mountains competition as a second category climb, an opportunity for plenty of riders and teams to take the polka-dot jersey if only for a day.
Probably the hardest phase of the race comes next with some twisty descents and unmarked climbs, all while teams want to be in position and fear it’ll be hard to move up later on.
The Finish: a finishing circuit in Barcelona with the finish again in Montjuïc. The finish line is in the same place as Stage 1 but the preceding climb is different, it’s steeper and was used when the Vuelta a España finished here in 2023. If it helps imagine the Volta a Catalunya finish, just harder.
The Contenders: the photo above is from Stage 2 last year in Boulogne and says plenty. Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-PremierTech) if things don’t go wild as soon as they hit the finishing circuit. He can cope with the climbs but would probably like a truce on the first time across the line as possible.
Tadej Pogačar (UAE) is the other obvious pick, he thrives on hilly terrain like this and the pitch of the road is ideal for him. It’s hard to see past these two.
Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) was among the fastest uphill yesterday – similar to Pidcock and Vingegaard – but his problem is he’s excellent but the names cited above are hard to surpass. Michael Matthews (Jayco) did well too but is long in the tooth these days. Can Paul Seixas (Decathlon-CMA CGM) sprint? He seems less punchy, preferring longer efforts to asphyxiate rivals but we’ll learn more here.
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Van der Poel, Pogačar |
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Grégoire, Evenepoel, Van Gils, Vacek, Pidcock |
Weather: cooling down during the day from 33°C to 30°C. There’s an onshore breeze meaning a crosswind during the stage but the forecast is for a gentle 20km/h. Normally this is insufficient to split the field… but this is the Tour de France and there’s a self-fulfilling effect where no team wants to be caught out so they jostle for position which ups the pace and before you know it there’s a gap.
TV: KM0 is at 1.55pm and the finish is forecast for 5.25pm CEST.
Looks like a bit of a classics one day race – MvdP versus Pogacar. The likes of Ayuso and Seixas need to stay alert, but barring accidents, I don’t suppose there’ll be big time gaps.
Will we see much of an attempt to get into a breakaway as the sprint is at 85 km and then it’s straight into the cat.2 climb?
Still got a feeling NSN will be active as they’re sort of on “home turf”.
Outside chance for Mauro Schmidt? Was superb in Fleche Wallone, so will handle the 13% ramp on the Montjuic, and he can sprint (Cadel Road Race). Can he match motors with the big dogs in this finish?
He was good in the Flèche but several bike lengths behind Seixas so how to get ahead this time? He could try to get in a move and win from there and hope that Alpecin come unstuck on the hilly circuit.
No chainring for Vingegaard? He will defend yellow and won’t want to concede any time bonus to the Pog. So, I’d expect to see him contesting a small group sprint finish.
If he’s contesting the finish surely Van der Poel and Pogačar finish ahead? That’s the thinking anyway.
Can Jonas Vingegaard keep Yellow until Paris? 🙂 Must be a chance of a break going the distance today especially if a non GC threat sees a chance of grabbing the jersey. Visma would be happy to see a decent break go so chasing down to UAE or Alpecin. Although given its the second stage of the Tour there will be a lot of motivated riders so maybe not. Must also be a high chance of crashes.