Tour de France Stage 12 Preview

Another sprint stage and probably the last.

Nevers à revers: Mathieu van der Poel was the first to attack and the other sprinters’ teams were having none of it on the wet roads. After a few moves the first hour covered 53km while a four rider break of Julian Alaphilippe, Matthis Le Berre, Anthon Charmig and Nelson Oliveira struggled to get more than a minute by which time the sun came out. The speed barely dropped below 50km/h all day.

The only slow point in the day came when the break was caught and the peloton spread across the tarmac, a rolling road block from about 5km to 2km to go and the speed dipped. Did this allow some to recover energy? Decathlon-CMA CGM’s Tiesj Benoot restarted things.

With 500m Decathlon’s Bol surged, presumably to take his sprinter Kooij clear but in between them was Jasper Stuyven who dipped his head, looked back and then swung across creating a gap that left Bol clear by himself.

Everyone seemed to look at each other but this moment saw Søren Wærenskjold come up the barriers with 350m to go and with some momentum allowing him to surf into Bol’s slipstream briefly and then came out of this and surged to the line. A sprint or an attack?

Wærenskjold was clear. Philipsen launched with Kooij joining him and the image above doesn’t do the gap justice, it was big. The pair were chasing but ran out of road and Wærenskjold won. Uno-X now have a stage win after a spell in yellow.

For Wærenskjold a quality win to add to Het Nieuwsblad and a rainbow jersey from the U23 time trial and where he’s been working on his sprint more. He’s not a big name but has quietly said he turned down the chance to ride for UAE as he didn’t want to promote the Emirates; similarly he declined to take part in the Al Ula Tour. Now his name goes in the record books as the winner of the fastest ever Tour road stage, 50.910km/h to beat 50.4km/h from 1999. There wasn’t even a tailwind this time either.

The Route: 179km and 1,800m of vertical gain, quielty backloaded in the second half. The start is on the Magny Cours motor circuit. The final 40km is on hillier terrain but these are still rolling roads, more than climbs proper. The roads after the final marked climb are exposed too amid the vineyards of the Côte Chalonnaise. These are roads where baroudeurs can try to take on the sprint teams.

The Finish: flat and exposed roads on the approach to town. A tight bend with 2.4km is part of the same final as in Paris-Nice in 2017, a flat run along the Saône.

The Contenders: last chance? Some sprinters might have a go in Paris but the Montmartre circuit could see some of them ejected on the climb. So the sprinters and their teams have to seize the chance. Only plenty of other riders and teams might try attacks too as the hillier finale helps, as does mounting desperation for winless teams.

Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quickstep) was out of the sprint on Stage 11, probably tired from his chasing all day on Stage 10. We’ll see if he’s fresher here as when he is able to contest a Tour sprint finish he’s the fastest. Olav Kooij (Decathlon-CMA CGM) and Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) finished second and third yesterday so are easy picks for their consistent presence.

The breakaway could win but it’s got to be a strong rider. Kasper Asgreen (EF) and Matej Mohorič (Bahrain) have won this way and the former has made moves so far but the latter hasn’t shown form yet. Filippo Ganna and Josh Tarling (Netcompany-Ineos) can try, Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X) is a breakaway specialist and the team showed on Stage 11 they can put a rider in the breakaway and win the sprint. Fred Wright (Pinarello-Q36.5), Ewen Costiou (Groupama-FDJ), Michael Matthews (Jayco) and Liam Slock (Lotto-Intermarché) are other picks.

Merlier
Kooij, Philipsen
Girmay, Asgreen, Ganna

Weather: 31°C and a chance of a thunderstorm and downpour. If so the wind will pick up but otherwise it’s a light SW tailwind.

TV: KM0 is at 1.40pm and the finish is forecast for 5.30pm CEST.

27 thoughts on “Tour de France Stage 12 Preview”

  1. Rolling roads, ok, but I’m having a persistent feeling of inflated vertical gain data at this TDF. Nothing new or especially strange: you have different options to manage raw GPS data, and this time around it looks like that ASO felt the need to puff up their chest.

    Trivia: Uno-X won a road stage averaging ~51 km/h both at the Giro and at the Tour this year, Mikan’s circuit having been marginally faster, even. None had a tailwind.

  2. “He’s not a big name but has quietly said he turned down the chance to ride for UAE as he didn’t want to promote the Emirates; similarly he declined to take part in the Al Ula Tour.”

    Good lad. It can’t be easy having a social conscience in a commercially driven sport like cycling, especially with the sovereign wealth funds buying up teams. I imagine that even a rider of his status is some way short of having complete freedom to pick and choose a team..

    Re: the 1999 record. What were the circumstances of that race? Apart from the very obvious one specific to that era.

  3. I’m so proud of my fellow countryman. Both of his moral choices and his win today. I hope that more professional sportsmen and women will consider whom they get their paycheck from in the future. Today most of them seem to live in a sorry bubble where no one cares (but a few, like Søren). And no one seems til hold them accountable either. The media should really step up as well.

    • Uff, yeah, those fossile fuel nations and all fossile fuel business should really be banned! Oh, wait…

      Just joking. Of course everybody who does the best they can or the best available instead of just “accepting the way of the world” deserve the greatest applause, even more so when they make a point of it. And – again of course – there’s a scale of gray in which UAE probably hits the “blackest” under every respect (well, I also have a special place in my heart for the European States which proposed, supported and eventually approved deportation of migrant people to extra-European countries; the Giro having tried to be part of the operation. Not a genocide? Maybe, but often close to. Above all, and just as in sport, your “feats” are rightly measured against context and expectations).

      That said, all the fossile fuel chain (including UAE) should be held accountable for the devastation they have caused, each proportionally to the benefit enjoyed.

  4. What’s the matter with Juju? He got dropped on a cat 4 climb and couldn’t even finish with the peloton. If that is his level of form nowadays then it’s painful to watch.

    • Poor guy, the climb he got dropped on was so small when his speciality was short efforts, and the stage was almost his home stage, not far from Montluçon where he grew up.

      Others have asked this in the comments and given his form all season – he’s had illness and personal issues – it was a surprise he was selected for the Tour. His team aren’t sure what is wrong now as he’s not ill. Yesterday he seemed ok until the sun came out and the temperatures soared but it was hard in the break, Le Berre said he was pushing 56×11 a lot of the time.

      It could just be time. You could see it catching up with him at Quickstep, and read the critical outbursts from Patrick Lefevere too. His Giro stage win was much like Gilbert’s Paris-Roubaix, a rider so good at short efforts unable to do these any more so going for a much longer effort that paid off, a raid rather than a ramp. And he’s older since. But he got Tudor invited to the Tour last year and is still a big draw for the public in France.

    • It’s really sad. I know his contractual obligations but had he bowed out last year after Quebéc (or Lombardia), he would have left an impeccable legacy. Leave while you still have the chance to walk away on your own.

      • Absolutely agreed. He now needs a further miracle to salvage the image of his adieu, while leaving after having been a significant part of two (!) of the oh-so-few Pogi’s defeats in a single year would have been a special detail.

        • Exactly. While I’m not the biggest fan of either Vingo or Pog, I hope they both have the sense to step away while their best career results are still fresh. I never warmed to Froome, but his last several years were tough to watch from any perspective.

          • Merckx stepped away when he could no longer “win like Merckx”. Coppi (like Froome) stayed on way past his prime. Maybe Pogi will stop when he can no longer ride away 40km out and win (like Merckx). I agree with you, it would be sad seeing Pogi in his mid-30s riding for an occasional lucky win in Trofeo Laigueglia or to get in the break in transition stages of the Tour.

        • While it’s a hope rather than an expectation, it would be perfect if Alaphilippe had one final act to his career, especially as the career obituaries seem to be being written now. Effectively the Cavendish farewell rather than Froome outcome. Simplistically, anyone with the legs to win a hilly one day world tour race against a world class field in 2025 should have a chance at winning a Tour stage in the next year. If there have been personal and health issues, there’s still some marginal hope that he can replicate that form before retirement. In general, the middle to second half of last year was generally positive – beyond Quebec there was 5th GC at Suisse, 3rd GC in Britain, 3rd on a Tour stage, all against quality opposition. Perhaps I’m being too kind, but seeing Alaphilippe opportunistically try for breakaways seems fine and partly in keeping with other parts of his career, whereas I agree it may seem odd for Pog to scrap in this way once his talents decline.

    • Another contender yes, he tried quickly yesterday and can benefit from Philipsen, he can sit on.

      It’ll be interesting to see the start and whether the sprint trains fight to stop breakways going. The final hour could be nervous too for this as several teams want to contest a sprint but are not big on the chase before, hoping to free ride of others.

  6. Hypothetical: what would a break need over the top of the cat4 to stand a chance of getting home? It’s net downhill so maybe 90seconds provided it’s not one person?

      • Yes, depends on the composition of the move. Asgreen, Ganna and Turgis moving with late would be harder than some early move of unsuspecting riders.

        The roads are often exposed and straight, the bunch can see a long way. It’ll be interesting, in a niche/nerd way, to see how the sprinters’ teams handle things today.

  7. I’m really pleased with UnoX’s results. They’re a breath of fresh air and the team spirit seems strong.

    One of my former chef colleagues now works on Oslo and is friends with some of the back room staff. He says they’re all genuinely nice people and the atmosphere behind the scenes supports their public image.

    Although I feel sorry for the nature of Traen’s departure I’m glad he got his time in yellow and his journey to recovery has been nothing short of inspiring. Also enjoyable following Magnus Cort’s regular hotel room reviews on insta!

Comments are closed.