Another sprint stage and probably the last.
Nevers à revers: Mathieu van der Poel was the first to attack and the other sprinters’ teams were having none of it on the wet roads. After a few moves the first hour covered 53km while a four rider break of Julian Alaphilippe, Matthis Le Berre, Anthon Charmig and Nelson Oliveira struggled to get more than a minute by which time the sun came out. The speed barely dropped below 50km/h all day.
The only slow point in the day came when the break was caught and the peloton spread across the tarmac, a rolling road block from about 5km to 2km to go and the speed dipped. Did this allow some to recover energy? Decathlon-CMA CGM’s Tiesj Benoot restarted things.
With 500m Decathlon’s Bol surged, presumably to take his sprinter Kooij clear but in between them was Jasper Stuyven who dipped his head, looked back and then swung across creating a gap that left Bol clear by himself.
Everyone seemed to look at each other but this moment saw Søren Wærenskjold come up the barriers with 350m to go and with some momentum allowing him to surf into Bol’s slipstream briefly and then came out of this and surged to the line. A sprint or an attack?
Wærenskjold was clear. Philipsen launched with Kooij joining him and the image above doesn’t do the gap justice, it was big. The pair were chasing but ran out of road and Wærenskjold won. Uno-X now have a stage win after a spell in yellow.
For Wærenskjold a quality win to add to Het Nieuwsblad and a rainbow jersey from the U23 time trial and where he’s been working on his sprint more. He’s not a big name but has quietly said he turned down the chance to ride for UAE as he didn’t want to promote the Emirates; similarly he declined to take part in the Al Ula Tour. Now his name goes in the record books as the winner of the fastest ever Tour road stage, 50.910km/h to beat 50.4km/h from 1999. There wasn’t even a tailwind this time either.
The Route: 179km and 1,800m of vertical gain, quielty backloaded in the second half. The start is on the Magny Cours motor circuit. The final 40km is on hillier terrain but these are still rolling roads, more than climbs proper. The roads after the final marked climb are exposed too amid the vineyards of the Côte Chalonnaise. These are roads where baroudeurs can try to take on the sprint teams.
The Finish: flat and exposed roads on the approach to town. A tight bend with 2.4km is part of the same final as in Paris-Nice in 2017, a flat run along the Saône.
The Contenders: last chance? Some sprinters might have a go in Paris but the Montmartre circuit could see some of them ejected on the climb. So the sprinters and their teams have to seize the chance. Only plenty of other riders and teams might try attacks too as the hillier finale helps, as does mounting desperation for winless teams.
Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quickstep) was out of the sprint on Stage 11, probably tired from his chasing all day on Stage 10. We’ll see if he’s fresher here as when he is able to contest a Tour sprint finish he’s the fastest. Olav Kooij (Decathlon-CMA CGM) and Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) finished second and third yesterday so are easy picks for their consistent presence.
The breakaway could win but it’s got to be a strong rider. Kasper Asgreen (EF) and Matej Mohorič (Bahrain) have won this way and the former has made moves so far but the latter hasn’t shown form yet. Filippo Ganna and Josh Tarling (Netcompany-Ineos) can try, Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X) is a breakaway specialist and the team showed on Stage 11 they can put a rider in the breakaway and win the sprint. Fred Wright (Pinarello-Q36.5), Ewen Costiou (Groupama-FDJ), Michael Matthews (Jayco) and Liam Slock (Lotto-Intermarché) are other picks.
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Merlier |
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Kooij, Philipsen |
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Girmay, Asgreen, Ganna |
Weather: 31°C and a chance of a thunderstorm and downpour. If so the wind will pick up but otherwise it’s a light SW tailwind.
TV: KM0 is at 1.40pm and the finish is forecast for 5.30pm CEST.
Rolling roads, ok, but I’m having a persistent feeling of inflated vertical gain data at this TDF. Nothing new or especially strange: you have different options to manage raw GPS data, and this time around it looks like that ASO felt the need to puff up their chest.
Trivia: Uno-X won a road stage averaging ~51 km/h both at the Giro and at the Tour this year, Mikan’s circuit having been marginally faster, even. None had a tailwind.