A flat stage with a sting in the tail to the hometown of Filippo Ganna. Can he surprise the bunch or this a continuation of Narvaez week?
Smart Alec: Movistar did it again, shredding the peloton on the climbs of the Giovo and Bric Berton, this time with a little help from the NSN and EF teams too. Dylan Groenewegen was dropped like a brick while Paul Magnier and Jonathan Milan held on for longer but cracked and could not chase back.
As much as Movistar’s move was lively, this was not a delicate refinery designed to distil the peloton down to a bunch of sapling climbers plus their fastman Orluis Aular, instead about 70 riders crested the Bric Berton pass; so roughly 90 eliminated.
Approaching the finish on the way out of Novi Alec Segaert hit the group with a big attack and got a gap. It was the perfect move, just as others were thinking about positioning for the upcoming sprint and hesitating about reacting. A couple of riders tried but they looked like passengers running down a platform trying to chase a train that was leaving the station.
Segaert won the GP de Denain this spring with a similar move; he’s tried it other times too. He’ll try it again and it’ll work as he’s got the punch and the power to make it work. To complete Bahrain’s day, Afosono Eulalio won the intermediate sprint to take the six second time bonus. This won’t bother Vingegaard but he is telling the team he wants to finish in the top-10 and this signalled it.
The Route: 187km, the graphic says 189km but it’s been tweaked. It’s still across the Po plains past rice and corn fields that make risotto and polenta and we end up evoking cuisine because there’s little to remark about the route.
Everything changes with 25km to go. The road climbs to Bieno for 2km with plenty of 8% but that’s just a gentle warm up.
After the intermediate sprint in Trobaso there’s a 3km climb and it’s all 8-10% or more, often 15% and with tight hairpin bends where the inside line is even steeper. The mountains point doesn’t mark the top of the climb as it drags along a balcony road. It then picks up a bigger road for the descent back down with 13km to go and the fast part of the descent is hard to take back time in an organised chase.
The Finish: a flat ride past the big lakeside villas.
The Contenders: Filippo Ganna (Netcompany-Ineos) is the local and has said that now the TT is done he wants to win more stages. If he wants to win today then his weight is a challenge, the two climbs just don’t suit. But he could try to make a solo move earlier and build up a lead. Easier said than done.
Which riders can exploit the final climb to ride away? Who can then sprint well from a small group? Jhonatan Narvaez (UAE) of course. If not then his team mates with Igor Arrieta and Jan Christen suitable picks.
Unlike the Ganna scenario above using the flat, if the break is to work it needs to take time on the flat roads and then a punchy rider springs clear on the final climb; or at least several do and then come into the finish together.
By now there’s a habitual mix of names you’ll find amid the ratings below but an extra mention for Edoardo Zambanini (Bahrain) who is suited to these kind of stages but has been carrying injuries since Bulgaria but is looking over these.
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Narvaez, Ulissi, Ganna, Ciccone |
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Aerts, Silva, Sobrero, Milesi, Garofoli, Hatherly, Zambanini |
Weather: sunny and 27°C.
TV: KM0 is at 12.55pm and the finish is forecast for 5.15pm CEST. Tune in around 4.30pm for the hilly finish.
Postcard from Verbania
Filippo Ganna is the local and the finish almost goes past the house in Vignone where he grew up, passing through the next village over of Cambiasca on the descent to the finish in Verbania.
Verbania is on the shore of Lake Maggiore and you can see why the town emerged here as it’s on a promontory of gravel washed out from local rivers, one of the few pieces of flat land. See how Alpine hills plunge down into the lake in the image above. Indeed the only flats road around seems to be one busy, engineered route cut into the mountain along the shore or the alongside the river. You wonder how such a hilly place produced a rider so good on the flat?
Only geography does not determine physical ability. Plenty of Dutch riders have climbed to wins at Alpe d’Huez, Jonas Vingegaard comes from Denmark where the highest point is 170.86m above sea level, so meagre they use the decimal place.
Ganna’s predecessor Franceso Moser came from the Alps, likewise many Italian classics specialists. Matteo Trentin hails from Borgo Valsugana and has said that if he doesn’t want a massive climb then the only training ride is either up the valley and back down, or down the valley and back up.
Geography does play a role. To leave cycling, there was nobody on the Italian winter Olympics team from Pulgia, Campania or Basilicata, the three regions that make up the southern tip of the Italian peninsula, nor Sicily either too. These four regions account for over a fifth of the population. Meanwhile South Tyrol supplied 50 athletes, from 0.9% of the population. Proximity to snow, mountains and infrastructure from ski-lifts to clubs and social networks clearly makes a difference. Obvious.
This counts in cycling too though because while there are roads everywhere, the supply of clubs, races and structures able to accompany an amateur from beginner to elite are largely regionalised in Italy too, the sport is big in Lombardia, Veneto and Tuscany but much less so in, say Calabria or Sardinia.
So while Ganna may have started out on hilly roads where every training ride ended with a 3.5km at 7% climb just to ride home from Verbania – he also grew up in a region packed with clubs and teams (like his Pedale Ossolano, then Colpack), races and resources to help him on his way. Ganna since moved to Switzerland… but that’s a postcard for another day.
I think I would like to see Ciccone have his day … nothing has gone his way so far.
Not much has gone Trek’s way so far this season.
I think the problem for Ciccone is this shows too much, he’s making a lot of moves and using up energy. Understandable given his and the team’s need for a result but it can be costly each day and also add up across the days.
Another problem is Ciccone doesn’t always appear to be the greatest of breakaway companions. He’s obviously strong which makes others wary of him, but he spends much more time than most remonstrating over workload. He’s also quick to attack, even when riders are cooperating. Watching some replays on how Narváez has operated from the break would do him a world of good.
The maglia rosa?
Great attack by Saegert there. Bringing back memories of long gone late attackers of the 80- and 90-ties. Would be nce if that “tradition” returned disrupting the trains.
In more recent times I recall Nibali at the TDF to get the maillot jaune, Vino on the Champs to also climb up a place in GC, Sagan upsetting Cancellara, Cancellara himself on multiple occasions, Pozzato’s Sanremo, then speaking of athletes who were «less of an absolute top» think Gaviria or Romeo. This season Ganna won Waregem with something borderline between finisseur move and very long sprint.
Lukas Postlberger on the opening day of the Giro is the one that sticks in my mind…in maybe 2015?
I thought Vernon had done the hard bit yesterday in surviving while almost all the other sprinters were distanced (Milan, Magnier, Penhouët, Ackermann, Groenewegen…) NSN must have been counting chickens in the team car though things didn’t work out quite as planned.
I learn so much from these postcards. Thanks a lot!
A win today for Narvaez would be his fourth (!) – most impressive for a rider in a Grand Tour who is neither a GC contender nor a sprinter. Still more impressive given his total absence from racing following his crash in the TDU.
Really enjoyed that stage. Something for everyone and spectacular as well. Good job organisers!
Unlike Segaert, who had a definite plan including the exact spot of the attack since Wednesday night, Ganna might just decide to adapt to events, taking advantage of a full and detailed personal experience on the course. Different options whether a break goes with him or not, what sort of break, with which advantage etc.
Among other fantasy options, to use Bieno’s final false flat as a launchpad to *anticiperen* (in this context, hard to imagine the punchy hilly specialists forcing on Bieno with Ungiasca soon after – although a Bettini or a Pogacar or a top-form Remco would do precisely that); to bridge to the front *after* Ungiasca benefitting from a more regular «uphill ITT» approach rather than responding to attacks, hoping that ahead they look at each other, even more so if Narváez is there.
Recently, Ganna also sported a decent sprint… albeit it would depend much on who the rivals are.
Probably a good option for him is to get away from the bunch or the break with «selected» riders, not too radically different from him, and work to the line out of common interest, each hoping for the same. At least with no climbs Narváez shouldn’t be able to «teleport» to the front if cut back. Or is he?
That was some old school racing!!
Just watched Pippo in this morning’s interview, pretty much impossible to show less optimism than he did 😀
I heard somewhere that he is now 87 kg. Those >10% slopes will not be easy…
A pity that precisely a break like the one which eventually went would have granted him a chance, and whatismore not too big a chance to make it valuable for the rest to work on all the same.
More or less what I hoped for in my last paragraph above… only Ineos stopped trying very soon. I guess they’ve got Arensman’s GC to take care of, which is also fair. And Pippo this morning looked really uninspired (“my legs hurt so much, I wish we won’t start all out once again etc.”)
A classic “day before a GC day” with the top guys using as little energy as possible. Good for the breakaway, so who’ll enjoy the podium limelight?
Man, the last two days have been dull. Are these the stages everyone pines for? The classic padding/days off before the hard work? I’d rather have Pogacar keeping everyone on their toes, possibly attacking, possibly not, as opposed to a training ride for the GC contenders. Don’t miss this at all.
Yesterday was quite interesting, and probably by far the best to be expected for a «sprint stage» whose specific function was giving some rest to the GC men.
I’d have made today much harder, given that Sunday and Monday are further rest days.
But many more besides the GC men needed rest after some very hard fought stages during the first half of the race, so today really became minimal and close to meaningless.
Bettiol played it perfect and was a joy to watch, but it was a quarter of hour or so…
I enjoyed today’s stage, because I looked at the profile and watched the last 26kms – they were fun to watch!
I didn’t mind today, but I normally don’t get to see the beginning of the race anyway because it’s in the wee hours of the morning where I live. That said, it always seemed like it would be decided about where it was and it was visually appealing viewing. I also enjoyed seeing the absolute masterclass pulled off by Bettiol, who only seems to win in very specific circumstances.
Today’s TV advice was to tune in for the final half hour. If you watched more you did get scenic shots of the Alpine lakes etc