A trip along the coast with some tough climbs in the second half. Another day for Narvaez?
Tempi di Massa: a day of two races. Filippo Ganna won the stage, gobbling up the riders ahead of him a ravenous Pacman. At times he was closing in on the motorbike outriders, they certainly didn’t pick the winner but probably extended the margin of victory. Only two riders got within two minutes of him, and he was more than 2km/h faster than second placed Thymen Arensman. He was done by 3.00pm which left Italian broadcaster RAI hours to savour in Ganna’s “masterpiece”. It was a triumph, but in the sense of reliability rather than overcoming.
Among the GC contenders Arensman fared best, we could predict this but all the same he was ahead with his time gains, helped by a mild flop from Jonas Vingegaard who didn’t gain much time on his GC rivals at all. But mildly so, like he’d been in the Vuelta and Tour last year, the surprise he stayed in this groove.
Vingegaard is just where he needs to be. He’s got 90 seconds on Arensman and hasn’t climbed an Alp yet but already knows he can drop everyone else in the mountains. Afonso Eulalio stays in pink which means Bahrain will work and take the load off Visma. The only issue is whether Vingegaard was below par because of something like an illness but he seemed bouncy and relieved the finish rather than ashen and anxious.
The Route: 195km and flat dash out of Tuscany. It’s after La Spezia that the road starts climbing the Passo della Foce, unmarked above but 3km at 8% most of the way as it goes into the Cinque Terre, a national park with rugged hills that offer great cycling, and remote fishing villages that are prone to overtourism in the summer and can feel more like Shinjuku station in rush hour.
The Termine pass is rarely steep but twists up an old road through woodland, good breakaway terrain. The same for the Colle di Guaitarola, a barren road with one steep section about 2km in.
The Colla dei Scioli is the steepest climb of the day, 6km at 6% but with the last 2km at over 10%.
The final climb of the day to Cogorno is hard going, a steep start, then a twisting road with some 14% mid-way on hairpins. The race was planning to come down here but got changed after the route was presented; if it’s a dicey descent it makes for a hard climb.
The Finish: downhill from Cogorno to Lavagna, the road has several points with no vision around bends but more often plenty of good tarmac. Once by the sea front there’s a detour back around some roads in town that climb via some gentle hairpin bends, it’s not obvious in the roadbook. But the final 2km are flat as the race heads back towards the sea front.
The Contenders: the finish suits punchy riders but they’ll have to get away on the fast flat roads in the first half and having had two rest days (NB most riders don’t race the TT stage hard) plenty will be raring to go.
Jhonatan Narvaez (UAE) is a default pick as he’s suited to this kind of course, in-form and can count on what is left of his team for support. He’s shown he can win from a sprint or go solo. As we saw with his second win he can bide his time as others try to escape in the final hour and cancel each other out. So far, so easy but getting in the right move is not obvious and if he does he’ll be marked. Team mates Igor Arrieta and Jan Christen both have a good chance but with the latter he’s looked good on paper but converting this into a win is proving harder.
We’ve seen riders take multiple stages (Magnier, Vingegaard, Narvaez) so can Thomas Silva (XDS-Astana) get a second? He and Christian Scaroni have a good chance. If doubles count then maybe Magnus Sheffield (Ineos) wins after Ganna yesterday?
Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto-Intermarché) is another rider to keep tipping but so far coming up short. Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) is now stage hunting and today suits, he is capable of winning an Alpine stage too but can use the climbs today to his advantage, just as long as he shows a bit more craft and guile.
Other Italian picks could be Simone Gualdi (Lotto-Intermarché), Francesco Busatto (Alpecin-PremierTech) and finish town local Andrea Racagni (Soudal-Quickstep) but out-foxing and out-riding the field is a big ask for them all.
Martin Tjøtta (Uno-X) was last yesterday, presumably saving himself. He’s had two top-10s so far and has a good chance but how to win, he’s untested when it comes to beating a World Tour field.
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Narvaez, Silva, Ciccone |
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Tjotta, Arrieta, Van Eetvelt, J-P Lopez, Sheffield, Christen |
Weather: sunny but only 19°C
TV: KM0 is at 12.30 and the finish is forecast for 5.15pm CEST. Tune in early for the action to get in the breakaway.
Postcard from Chiavari
The local rider today? If you read the preview above you’ll reply Andrea Raccagni of Soudal-Quickstep. He grew up in the finish town but he’s since moved away to San Marino.
Further along the coast from today’s finish is Recco. Turn inland here and you’ll climb to Avegno. The road up is daubed with “Finn”. Did the Giro come here before and a Finn Fisher-Black supporter go to work? No, instead it’s for 19 year-old Lorenzo Finn, the Under-23 world champion.
Finn’s father is British and works locally as a building surveyor, his mother is Italian. He grew up in this area and rides for Italy. Italian? Yes but he’s very Ligurian as apparently his favourite dish is pasta with pesto, but he also told La Gazzetta his sporting idol is Geraint Thomas. He speaks both languages fluently and rather than having to belong to one camp he’s probably more marketable because of wider appeal and fluency.
The junior world champion in 2024, he won the U23 title in his first year with the seniors. Until recently he was talked about in the same revered tones as his contemporary Paul Seixas because the pair sparred regularly as juniors. While Seixas has already turned pro and is scaling the career ladder like Alex Honnold, Finn is in the second of a two year apprenticeship as an Under-23 on Red Bull’s development team. His progress is still impressive.
This is all part of a deal where he will turn pro for them next year, as in join the World Tour team. He’s already ridden with them, having won the team time trial day in the Trofeo Majorca races and in the recent Tour of the Alps he was with the front group when team mate Giulio Pellizzari rode away for the win in the Val Martello summit finish and Finn finished sixth, ahead of plenty of other good climbers. Only he broke his wrist soon after so is injured right now but he looks like more than a climber, indeed there’s an outward physical resemblance to Tadej Pogačar. If it wasn’t for Paul Seixas many would be raving about Finn instead.
I like to look at the Jayco teams chances and Robert Donaldson and Alan Hatherley seem to be the picks for a break away. Nut i don’t think i have seem them try and get in any breaks so i guess they are all in for O.Conner and Akermann. I think they could spare at least one of them for today.
I was a bit surprised at Ben O’Conner’s time trial but when i looked on PCS in recent years in main races he had a lot of results around the top ten so i guess he was better than i gave him credit.
As to Vinegared that was unusually poor considering he has seemed in good enough form. I would not expect him to be ahead of Ganna but there was a few he was behind you would expect him to be ahead of.
I’ve been watching Hatherley, an obvious talent, and he’s suited to some of these days with the sharp climbs and 5 minute efforts, but it’s his grand tour debut and want to see if can find a way to out-fox rivals.
We have already seen Visma_LAB and Jonas holding back to see if he can shed the maglia azzurra, so I would not be surprised if we saw a very measured effort yesterday to keep Eulálio in the maglia rosa. Approx 30 seconds off the leader and two mins away from nearest rival, seems an ideal result to me from Vingegaard perspective.
I am not sure. He looked fairly uncomfortable during yesterday’s effort. Is he that good an actor? Admittedly, he seemed pretty chirpy in the post-race interviews, and I agree that the outcome is quite convenient for Visma LAB.
Special mention to Lorenzo Milesi for picking up the Geraint Thomas award in racing to ninth place while wearing an ice vest. An unmistakably Movistar thing to do…
😅
Oh mine, he got 9th ahead of Jonas? That’s something.
On the other hand, it was just a gilet. A ice vest would surely be too much.
He certainly out did Thomas since the former just rode a short Prologue with it.
I guess loud complaining does not count as “craft and guile”.
Thanks for the additional background on Lorenzo Finn. Knew he had a British dad and Italian mom, but didn’t know he is really Ligurian! I love Liguria and the people there, and consider it my spiritual culinary home. I was thoroughly impressed with Finn when I saw him up close at the Zurich Worlds, and am hoping he develops into a champion at the pro level too. Wish he wasn’t on Red Bull. For one, they have shown themselves to be pretty tactically inept for several years now. But more to the point, I love the idea of Finn, Pellizzari, Seixas, and Pogacar all on different teams. Maybe Ineos can snatch Finn away from Red Bull, and then we could have some seriously good match-ups in the years to come.
My extreme Tjøtta-lobbying has worked !
Complete miss
How to avoid Narvaez ?
Alas he’s out of the race. Looks like yesterday’s ride wasn’t taking it easy.
Love love love your work Inrng, I adore reading your revidews and I don’t think we thank you enough for the effort that goes into them. Please don’t stop any time soon!
What are people’s thoughts on Corbin Strong’s chances today? Was 7th on stage 8 on a finale that had much steeper ramps than today’s climbs. If he makes the break, can he get over the climbs and be there at the finish?
AFAIK Raccagni Noviero is the whole family name and shouldn’t be split, not a double surname as in Spain or his partner’s or the likes (same as we don’t actually call «Fisher» the Fisher-Black brother & sister etc.).
I’m rooting for Finn, as others not enthusiast of him being at RB (but where else is the question…? Ineos hasn’t a great record on young undeveloped athletes. But, again, who has, in the WT? Genuine question I’ll need to investigate about). Finn looks to me a bit crash and injury prone, a tendency which if confirmed can limit him quite much, or at least test his character even deeper (Pantani, Froome or his role model G. Thomas got their decent amount of victories all the same).
Finn hasn’t spent his childhood on the track and doing cyclocross unlike Seixas. But he can improve here, it’s something to work on. Evenepoel for example has improved a lot, another latecomer from football too. Plus Finn lives next to the Via Aurelia for training, in his own words he risks his life each time on it. It’s not that bad, but it is busy, crowded and reaction times count.
Agreed on Ineos not having a track record for young rider development, though perhaps that’s a little unfair since they were doing pretty well with the young Bernal, until he had that terrible accident. What Ineos/Sky has always been good at is protecting their protected rider. Even now, at races where their best guy is nowhere near the best guy in the race, the Ineos train is right up front, expertly keeping their GC guy safe. That’s why I in past years I wished Almeida raced for them since his biggest failure is in positioning.
If Finn is injury-prone, then having a squad committed to keeping him safe would be a good thing (admittedly, that didn’t seem to help Thomas too much). I’m glad Arensman is going well this Giro. He climbs well and has arguably the strongest team racing for him now, so we might have a real fight on our hands into the third week. I hope Gall continues to get stronger, like their DSs always say. I’ve always liked him too, and am sorry he is just so crap at time trialling. It’s hard imagining either of them overcoming Vingegaard, especially since both teams seem to be willing to ride the front instead of forcing Visma to work. But I can always hope that they will decide to ride for the win and not just the podium.
The way he won Belvedere and the other one (Palio del Recioto ?) was indeed very impressive. I wondered why he wasn’t racing bigger races, and I think his ToA would have been very consistent. Him and the small Pezzo Rosola seem to be the real deal for Italy, as Magagnotti for the sprint : i tricolori have great years in front of them. Seixas vs Finn in the GC in a few years, franco-italian rivalry back as in the old years, and gabriele and me arguing endlessly here : who wouldn’t ask for some 10 000 words-essay about who’s the best ? Be ready for more bandwidth, Inrng !
Obviously Omrzel will be the best.
🙂
Lots to look forward to.
Endless speculation over whether Jonas Vingegaard is slightly off top form or whether he is pacing his efforts. I suspect its a bit of both. In any other situation being 1.5 minutes ahead of your GC rivals after 9 stages would be seen as a pretty strong situation. In reality if you win a GT by 15 seconds without winning a stage its the same as winning by 10 minutes and winning 8 stages. The race isnt yet at the halfway point and July must also be a factor in trying to conserve energy.
Decathlon need to up their efforts for July, at times their race tactics have been questionable, though not alone in that, letting your main GC contender race a TT without a visor seems to be poor management. In July there is going to be a huge focus on the team, every minor detail is going to be analysed, I am not sure they are quite ready for that.
Netcompany / Ineos seem to have nailed TT kit (UAE too I assume) perhaps Decathlon needs to do the same
Decathlon have some good experts for TTs, I think it was more like Gall didn’t want the visor… or forgot it. One reason Seixas is precocious is he is across all these details, he’ll spend his spare time discussing aero socks with team staff and so on. Gall probably just wanted to get yesterday over with. Today’s stage will be difficult for him too though, lots of tricky descents about to come up.