An open race with Remco Evenepoel as the lone representative of the Unbeatables, can he take on the field and win? The Amstel marks an interlude between Sunday Monuments but makes for a fun race because it is so tricky and technical, as Tadej Pogačar discovered to his peril last year.
The Course: a 257km labyrinth contained in a 20km x 30km section of the Netherlands that resembles an appendix dangling between Belgium and Germany. Held to promote a flat and tasteless beer, the course is seemingly the opposite with all sorts of surprises and a long finish.
There’s 3,300m of vertical gain and none of the climbs alone are hard but 33 of them add up and in the final third positioning counts for so much as the course is full of tight turns and knowing where to move up counts for plenty. Go into a climb beyond 20th place and it’s easy to miss a split or be forced into a costly acceleration to make it across. Go in third wheel and a rider can afford to drift back a few places if it suits and this way save a lot of energy.
The Finish: up the Cauberg and then 1.5km over the finish line to make a for a tactical moment where it’s a long way to hold out if a climber wants to jump on the Cauberg, where dropped sprinters can be towed back into contention and more.
The Contenders: Remco Evenepoel (RedBull-Bora-Hansgrohe) is the star name in the absence of fellow unbeatables Tadej Pogačar, Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel. Given the way one of these names wins the spring classics to the exclusion of the rest of the field then this ought to be his turn. But jostling for position and subtle tactics are not his strong points although he can handle both, indeed last year’s race is a good example where he bided his time before setting off in pursuit of Pogačar. He can sprint well too these days but last year’s race is a bad example where he lost to Pogačar and Skjelmose.
Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) leads a team that’s struggling this season, currently sandwiched between Uno-X and Cofidis on the UCI rankings. If much of this has been to injury for Pedersen and Ayuso, the team were not the collective force on the cobbled classics and they now bring a new cast to the Ardennes classics. Skjelmose is a good rider but the Amstel twice in a row is a big ask. Albert Withen Philipsen and Quinn Simmons are outside picks, the Dane was strong in the breakaway during the Ronde van Limburg earlier in the week.
Visma-LAB have been one of world’s best teams and this is their home race but they’ve regularly struggled here, only winning once in their post-Rabobank days thanks to Wout van Aert’s photogenic appearance in 2021. Matteo Jorgenson is out to remedy this and should thrive on these roads but we can find quotes from him saying he can’t sprint so it’s probably solo or bust. Ben Tullet and Axel Zingle bring more options, the latter packs a good sprint but would prefer the finish on the Cauberg itself.
It’s a pity the Brabantse Pijl has been moved to a Friday slot as plenty of riders skipped it but Benoît Cosnefroy (UAE) made the breakaway that got caught at the flamme rouge and still sprinted third place in the finish. Dropped by Decathlon, due to go to Picnic-PostNL only for the deal to fall through late, he was hired by UAE as a bargain so is not a strategic pick but is still their best rider here as one of several riders who make the “Ardennes” a big goal when it’s only four races in under 10 days from the Pijl to Liège.
Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) is almost a copy-paste of the paragraph above, in the break in the Pijl but salvaging fourth place and another rider who aims for the tiny window of the Ardennes.
Staying with French riders brings us to Ineos with three Gallic options: Dorian Godon to hold on for a sprint, Axel Laurance to provoke a move or two and win from a reduced sprint and Kévin Vauquelin to make a race-winning attack.
Tibor Del Grosso (Alpecin-PremierTech) might be the best hope for a home win but a World Tour win against this dense a field is a lot to ask for.
Bahrain have a cohesive team but Pello Bilbao‘s win rate is low, ditto Matej Mohorič. Edoardo Zambanini is promising.
Finally some more names with Ilan Van Wilder (Soudal-QS) able to race for himself. Alex Baudin (EF) in form and Mauro Schmid (Jayco) is having a great season. Alex Aranburu (Cofidis) looks rejuvenated, Clément Champoussin (XDS-Astana) is riding high in results but how to win while Paul Lapeira (Decathlon-CMA CGM) can be a sniper on a good day and is capable of winning World Tour races.
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Remco Evenepoel |
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Simmons, Skjelmose, Jorgenson, Vauquelin, Van Wilder |
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Schmid, Grégoire, Cosnefroy, Lapeira, Del Grosso |
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Laurance, Godon, Aranburu |
Weather: a cool 14°C with some sunshine and a light 10km/h breeze from the NW, and an outside chance of rain.
TV: the race starts at 11.10 and the finish is due around at 17.10 CEST. Host broadcaster NOS goes on air at 1.10pm with the women’s race due in at 2.00pm but there should be a livestream on their website earlier.
Women’s Amstel Gold Race preview: local hopes of a home winner look more likely. This blog’s picks are Puck Pieterse (Fenix-PremierTech), Demi Vollering (FDJ-Suez) and Micha Bredewold (SD Worx-Protime), the latter being last year’s winner and in form. But ProCyclingUK.com has a more detailed preview and different picks.
Amstel beer taking strays! Ouch!
Thanks for the preview. Further Cofidis rejuvenation with Ion Izagirre maybe? Maybe not a win, but certainly riding strong at the moment.
Good to see him get a home win in the GP Miguel Indurain but he’s often been a brilliant rider on home roads but less so outside. I think Cofidis might sign now for a top-10 tomorrow but they’re doing well this season, relegation no longer a worry and lighter management.