Stage 9 of the Tour de France and the end of the one of the most unpredictable days of racing in recent times. Perhaps, especially with hindsight, Dan Martin winning a Pyrenean stage is predictable but Chris Froome isolated whilst his team goes into meltdown with Richie Porte losing minutes and Vasil Kiriyenka missing the time cut? Who predicted that?
Race previews have a predictive element. Some aspects are known, the route of a stage of the Tour de France has been written down for months but other elements are less certain, like the weather. The greatest uncertainty comes with the race itself and picking the winner.
During the Tour de France I tipped some riders to win before the race and each day’s preview contained some likely stage winners. It turns out some readers were using the info to place bets and I got messages of thanks but also a few angry emails about lost money. Given real money is being spent, not to mention the anxious credit of fantasy cycling, I wanted to explore the idea and merit of forecasting. Forecasts are for fools.
