Paul Seixas is going to the Tour de France. The decision was taken last week and shared today. It always seemed likely but question of his participation as an ongoing story shows how he’ll face a lot of attention.
Should Paul Seixas ride the Tour de France? The question has been doing the rounds since last year’s Tour de France. The Decathlon-Ag2r La Mondiale last summer included Bastien Tronchon who remarked one day to the team boss Dominique Serieys that as often as he’d been told the Tour de France is bigger and harder than anything else on the calendar, it was only by experiencing this for himself that he could understand this. Based on this Serieys told France’s RMC Radio he was minded to take Seixas to the Tour de France already, the thinking being that he might well serve some kind of apprenticeship in July.
RMC’s long time pundit Cyrille Guimard has taken a different position. When he took over the Renault team in the 1970s he quickly became a leading team manager and after convincing Bernard Hinault to turn pro with the team in 1975, then convinced Hinault to only start the Tour de France when he was ready to win it, thus serving three years as an apprentice and then winning the 1978 Tour. That was a long time ago but Guimard and others have returned to it.
When the 2026 Tour de France route was revealed, France’s Vélo magazine did not put the map on their front cover but Seixas instead, along with the question of whether he should ride. Because if question was the same, the answer was changing as Seixas had finished in the top-10 in Lombardia, going head to head with the best of the rest behind Pogačar on the final climb of the day. Plus he’d been third in European championships behind Pogačar and Evenepoel.
All this got amplified this spring, first following his second place in the Strade Bianche and then the rest in April: winning the Itzulia Basque Country and the Flèche Wallonne and then being second to Pogačar in Liège-Bastogne-Liège. His climbing performances in the Basque Country were at level superior to those deployed by Jonas Vingegaard in Catalunya. Comparing two brief data points requires more than a cautionary pinch of salt, but you can see how what we and his team know about Paul Seixas has changed significantly since last July.
One observation is this was Paul Seixas’s decision. Listen to his comments on the subject in recent weeks and he’d reply in the first person, as in “I will decide” and not “we”, although he did also speak of discussions with the team. This was not a note of rebellion nor trying to create a fait accompli, just confidence.
Seixas’s contractual future is up for grabs too. This blog’s piece “The Race For Paul Seixas” argued he is the central rider on the market right now, and since posting it in early March it’s even more so, some phrases conditional tense or reservations feel more secure now. Which is why if Seixas wants to ride the Tour then his team are hardly going to say non to him, for fear of an argument with him that pushes him to walk away to a new team. As an aside here, every team would like to sign him and it suits UAE to make the right noises and winks in the media as this alone entrenches their position as the top team who get to shape the future; but the likes of Netcompany-Ineos arguably need Seixas more.
You can see why Seixas decided to go to the Tour. Imagine if you were 19, really into your cycling and had just won the Basque Country and rode everyone off your wheel except Pogačar this spring: what would you fancy doing this July? Imagine if Seixas was a rapper, would he turn down the chance to go on stage with Jay-Z at the Yankee Stadium this July? If he was a tennis player, would he decline to play at Rolland Garros? Doubt it.
A further thing is Seixas is fascinated by Pogačar, the Slovenian is his model. When Pogačar was winning his second Tour, Seixas was a 14 year old watching the Tour on TV. Pogačar’s attitude to the sport, including racing the cobbled classics, is something Seixas wants to emulate too. It’s partly why Seixas was swapping turns with Pogačar after La Redoute on the roads to Liège, it’s because he yearns to race with him.
One difference to Pogačar is the Slovenian surprised us on the way up, including his first Tour de France win when Roglič looked like the likely winner, even on the morning of the penultimate stage. Similarly it took a while for the Merckx vs. Pogačar debate to get going too. Perhaps it’s due to Pogačar as a pioneer but the rise of Seixas seems to be a steeper trajectory, at least in expectations.
One thing the rise of Pogačar but also plenty of others has shown is that any apprenticeship these days is different. Many were wondering if Seixas could cope with a 250km Monument in Liège but he’d managed in Lombardia last year and the Worlds and Euros were long races too. He knows better than most that you just have to eat and eat at the prescribed rate for the event. There’s more to it but a lot of the lore and experience required to handle long races has been cast aside in recent years. So handling a three week race is not the test of stamina and grit it once was.
All this though circles back to the Tronchon-Serieys conversation. As much as Seixas readies himself for the Tour, it’ll still blow his mind to take to the start. Cyrille Guimard used to point out that wearing the yellow jersey each day at the Tour cost a rider an hour in extra media time and the extension of this was one hour’s less sleep a day, so in a week that equated to a whole night’s lost sleep. This works better as a rapid-fire remark on radio than a paragraph of text but you get the point: the daily media round and other duties can sap a rider. Paul Seixas will likely face similar demands in July from the French media alone and risks being as tired as the race leader… assuming it is someone else.
Seixas is going for “discovery” and “to aim for the best GC possible”, he’s not going to sit tight and then see about a stage win. This is probably the right formula, ambitious but open-minded, if the best result turns out to be seventh place in Paris, or even 77th, then so be it.
The challenges ahead are as much for the Decathlon-CMA CGM team as Seixas. Some of the thinking around Seixas’ Tour debut had revolved around taking him to the Tour to discover the race, but with the pressure firmly on new hire Olav Kooij’s shoulders for sprint wins. Only the Dutchman is only just beginning to resume riding after a lingering viral infection and so who knows if he’ll be able to do the Tour de France?
If Kooij is absent then so is his train or this is redeployed as a bodyguard service for Seixas, or engines for the team time trial. Suddenly they’re putting a lot of eggs in his basket. Riders like Jordan Labrosse have thrived this season by riding in his service. But can they do this at the Tour de France? One thing the team needs to do – and is doing reportedly doing with Pavel Sivakov – is to hire extra help.
In the meantime Seixas will race once at the Dauphiné/Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes in June find a route to suit, more so since Remco Evenepoel has opted not to ride it today too.
Conclusion
There are arguments for and against but Seixas has decided and you can see why he wants to do it, and why the team is supportive. But blog posts like this and the flood of other articles reinforce the point that his every move and utterance between now and July will be tracked closely.
Okay, this is my first comment though I’ve been reading for five years, however after considering past behaviour from ASO, surely he will need to ride the Tour once so ASO know what sort of course would most favour his skill-set, so that they can arrange such a course. They did it for Romain Bardet a few years back (not that it helped), and I cannot imagine they would not do it again. It seems to me from watching Itzulia that long, technical descents seem to be something he is especially skilled at (which if done would also benefit Pidcock and WvA, if not Jay Vine). Pog is not amongst the very top bike-handlers and has shown he can be overconfident in his bike-handling, whereas again referring to Itzulia Seixas seems to have excellent bike-handling (I believe he did Cyclocross).
How else might they consider changing the course? Fewer long steep climbs? Longer time-trials? I’m sure that ASO must be getting fed up with Pog’s dominance, but what else might they do?
Does anyone else have any thoughts on this?
Welcome to the comments! Prepare to be attacked and misconstrued (kidding). As for changing the parcours to Pog-proof it, what could you do? 21 pan-flat sprint stages? I think he’d still find a way to sneak away and take two minutes!
Thanks for your and all the other comments. My time schedule often makes it difficult for me to comment though…
I had thought that along with long technical descents, they would try making the climbs less steep, to reduce the ability of Pog to just drop everyone. A regular team time trial might also be an idea – they seem much more entertaining than ordinary time trials (which I often don’t watch) – Also given how regularly UAE are disorganized, it would even things out especially if they returned to 4th rider setting the time as Pog would have to bring his domestiques to the line.
Shorter time trials probably helped Romain Bardet but main thing was to help audiences, people don’t tune in as much for these as there’s less excitement and the landscape gets replayed over and over, which is why they’re still short today, why the Tour has all but abolished the prologue etc.
Seixas though seems to be a versatile rider so could probably cope with most of the course varieties we can imagine, even pave would be fun for him like Pogačar enjoys it when Vingegaard and his team make dismissive sounds. But he does seem to be still growing, if not in height then in weight. Were this to continue then you could imagine Christian Prudhomme or his successors thinking of hour long 5-6% climbs rather than 40 minute 8-10% versions.
The likely possibility that he will gain weight, especially muscle mass, is often overlooked, when it comes to Seixas. Seixas is so young; his physiology could still change significantly. A good example of this is probably Evenepoel, who has apparently gained muscle mass over time and is therefore a brilliant time trialist, but repeatedly struggles in the high mountains.
+1
Not quite true. He regularly struggles in mountain stages with multiple climbs in a grand tour with a number of days of those.
At this years UAE Tour, Evenepoel lost over 2 minutes on stage winner Tiberi on the first MTF; a stage with only one mountain, after a convincing TT the day before. Apparently, it does not need a GT or multiple high mountains to get him in trouble.
@anonymous below. Sorry I should be clearer for you. I was referring to GTs. The UAE Tour is just a training ‘race’ for him.
Re: ITTs, come on, that’s true but there are known ways to sort that out without losing too much audience and, even more important, just consider how that factor didn’t prevent ASO from including long ITTs in 2012. Plus, ITTs later also came back. Moreover we should note that the audience effect is irrespective of stage length: long or short, ITTs will perform so and so audience-wise. Let me add that 2016 and 2017 performed quite poorly as for viewing figures, so it’s hard to imagine that it was really a priority. A clear example? Mountain marathons and hard uphill finishes are typically great audience-makers, no matter if the stage turns out to be boring. But ASO also took those away in that period…
Thought experiment. How long would an ITT have to be to give Evenepoel a chance of defending a lead against Pogacar in an otherwise normal TdF? 100km-ish? More? I’d be all for it.
And flat too. Pogačar has beaten Evenepoel twice in TTs when they’ve been hilly. The problem for Evenepoel is consistency and avoiding the Vuelta/Tourmalet like implosions. Even with a 100km TT he would not build up a big enough cushion to sit comfortably on.
With current dataset, and *best case for Remco*, I’d say some 180 kms at least. However, as inrng pointed out, makes little sense for many reasons.
Presently, I see Remco far from his theoretical potential as a stage racer – and I’m far from sure that developing him as a stage racer is the best idea (really, dunno). Hope that’s going to change in his 68 days without racing.
His best chance to win a stage race is adding up on top of a early, long, flattish ITT a fully chaotic situation of sort in some tricky stage – yet, as seen at LBL, most other teams wouldn’t do their part albeit equally interested.
It is not only how many ITT kms in the race. Both Vingegaard and Pogacar become stronger in time-trials, compared to other riders, over the three weeks of a grand tour. An ITT deep in week three will not necessarily favour Remco, even if it is pretty flat.
The TV audience is much lower for time-trials than for mountain stages, something which ASO know and understand. Once stages became fully televised, there was a move to reduce the number of ITT and to extend the number of mountain stages.
Long ITT also start causing logistical problems for the teams. Once the length gets to 40-50 minutes, teams don’t really have enough team cars to support all their riders on the course. [Aside: the team car also needs to get back to the start, which can be another 20-30 minutes.] While this does not matter too much for riders lowly placed on GC, it is a huge problem if the team has several riders in the top-30.
This, albeit grosso modo true, is a gross oversimplification. ITTs shouldn’t necessarily “compete” with mountain stages, but with flat ones. Which actually perform worse audience-wise. There’s a list of valid strategies to place ITTs within a GT without losing much audience, and they’re slightly different from GT to GT. For example, for the TDF, it works decently to have the ITT as the penultimate stage on the last Saturday, given that apparently you can’t really put it as stage 21 as once had happened sporadically. For the Giro audience-wise is great to have an ITT as stage 21.
Of course, I’m also using a simplification, here, as ITT don’t make the same function of flat stages (rest for GC men), but, as I said, there are also lots of options. If you put them in the first week, for example, you won’t sap too much GC men’s energies as hard stages will usually come later on, and if you swap a flat stage for an ITT audience will stay the same.
If you start with an ITT on the very first couple of stages, you can even get better TV results than with a sprint.
Long story short, it’s far from a giant obstacle – it’s just about studying how TV audience works and place ITTs accordingly.
So, not only the TV figures don’t explain why *shorter* ITTs, although it partly explain *fewer*, but even from an audience POV they can be used intelligently if there’s a real intention to highlight their technical value.
And I can’t see how the car issue wasn’t there 20 or 30 years ago – yet apparently it could be sorted out.
Gabriele:
The long ITT issue is separate from the lots of ITT issue. For long ITT, it also becomes difficult to televise them since you need the TV moto to return to the start to show a new rider. The logistical issues with long ITTs are real. [Maybe they didn’t care much in the past, I don’t know, but I have no idea how they could run an 120km ITT as they did in the 1940s.]
The replacement of time-trials by mountain stages really does date from when the stages had several hours of TV coverage. I am explaining how ASO (and other race organisers) came to the decision. Of course, I agree that flat stages that end in a sprint are very boring and get lower TV audiences. This is why we don’t have 6-7 flat stages in a row in the first week anymore (like in the 1980s). But the race organisers still like some of these stages for two reasons: (i) they want the best sprinters at their race; (ii) there need to be some easy days to allow the GC-riders, and others, to recover.
It’s not really a controversial call for the team to make. I am sure the sponsors really want him there.
I don’t see the age as a problem. He’s probably been training more like a pro than a 19 year old of even 10 years ago.
But beyond that if he starts struggling you can pull him out then. There is no requirement that he finishes.
He does not need to go for GC. He could just go for stages and have essentially lots of easier days.
On a sporting/physical level, I’d tend to agree (although we don’t really know how well he’s trained for mutliple high mountain stages). But it’s all the other pressures and expectations that are the real concern.
Is it just me or does Paul Seixas’ riding style look very similar to Tadej Pogacer’s? It was an inevitable decision but really not sure it was the right one for the longer term. The Vuelta this year (rumour suggests TP is going to ride) and the Tour next year might have been better especially if ASO were inclined to tilt the course in his favour but we shall never know.
Roll on Friday and the start of the highlight of the cycling calendar!
I am inclined to think that the Vuelta would be a better choice for this year as well. From a spectator’s point of view though his decision adds a bit more interest to the TdF.
His riding style doesn’t look like Pogacar to me … he seems to rely more on pure strength.
He seems way less smooth to me. And he stands on the pedals and sits down frequently on climbs. But maybe that was only in LBL when he was clearly near the limit.
Agreed, he is taller and more lanky than Pogi giving him a more chugging style on the bike. But highly efficient none the less.
He reminds me of a cantering giraffe for some reason, it must be the long limbs and more that moves as he rides. A bit more core work and he might be more stable and efficient.
His sticking out elbows makes me think of Froome. His skinny profile too, come to think of it.
@inrng The giraffe idea is well spot, perhaps his eyes, too, and sort of a long neck (though not as long as a giraffe’s). That frontpage photo 😉
I still think Pogacar will prevail at 2026 TdF, but it will be very entertaining watching battles among Vingegaard, Remco, Seixas, Lipowitz, and del Toro for podium places.
Remco might be getting nervous about securing a podium spot.
Per Cycling News,
“No racing for Remco Evenepoel for a full 69 days before Tour de France to start ‘completely fresh’ “.
Was it coincidental that Seixas’s plans were announced about same time?
I did wonder the same about Evenepoel… but he has raced a lot this season already compared to his peers for July. Plus the Dauphiné/ AuRA Tour has some really long and steep roads and and no solo time trial, the risk is he’d be struggling here and getting buried by the Flemish media before the Tour started.
Yes, I agree. Remco should wait until the Tour has started before he is buried by the Flemish media.
@Tom Quite telling that you left Onley off that list. Unfortunately, I think that’s correct – the podium isn’t going to be on his radar this time around, although top 10 should be.
I must be getting old. He looks about 14 to me. A podium would be an amazing achievement for him and I don’t think it’s impossible.
My students (I’m a professor) are his age and look it–i.e. they all look 14 to me. And they all have goofy hair too (at least the male students).
He might be 19 but he sounds like he’s 29. He’s had some coaching for the media, been told a bit how to get a message across but fundamentally seems natural at this part too.
One problem is he’s going to be increasingly surrounded by people telling him nothing but good things, and saying yes. His career is brief and he’s not had a set-back yet and coping with problems can be tough, more so given his media profile.
Did you guys see him breaking the news to his grand parents? That was sweet:
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1CwDh7SuxP/
And cleverly done, the appeal to different generations, the family setting etc.
It’s less so for other races but in France the audience for the sport has changed a lot this decade, it’s got a lot younger, the second audience segment is now 16-24 and this will only get bigger with Seixas. So this multi-generational scene is a clever way to try and tie it all together. You can see this roadside there might be campervans with retired couples but now also big crowds of people under 30.
Absolutely clever and well arranged. And it also came across as quite genuine, I’ll give them that.
It will also differ him from Pogi, having this sweet old couple, his grand parents, be part of the story as it unfolds. They appear to be okay with it so far.
Wesaw him with his Grand father in Les Gets last summer. Looks like a genuine relationship with much love
Good for Vinnie, he’ll have a choice of wheels to hang onto! Good for Pogi if he can ‘lend the jersey’ for several days and get away from the media round , especially when it is chilly.
Bad for everyone if some nationalist ‘fans’ decide to ‘help’ Seixas triumph by removing the competition.
As for Seixas, in the sport I know something about as opposed to enjoying, we are very wary about over testing young horses, the cliche is ‘he/she has real potential, so we must mind them ‘.
I regard this with some trepidation : but I am in training for my boring old fart badge, so…..
Brave choice but personally I believe he’ll get smoked. Vingegaard especially will be a force this year, he’ll be fully fit and motivated to get back what once was his. Pressure of a nation will be on Seixas but he has no obligation to win at first time of trying, as long as he’s realistic with himself. It’s just the start of a long great career
At the end of the day it’s not like ‘Seixas Goes To The Front Line’ or even ‘Seixas Goes Camping’. It’s just 3 weeks of 4 hours on the bike plus 20 hours wrapped in cotton wool. In the age of safetyism a scrawny teen need not be at any kind of disadvantage. As for Pogacar: the autumn of his career might not be all his own way now… he might want to wrap up that Vuelta sooner rather than later.
Really? Have you given any thought to the crushing weight of expectation? A Tour showing now that doesn’t meet with home hopes could well set him back, a lot, psychologically if not physically.
I hope Paul has a long successful career with no crashes. I can still see the one where Wout crashed into the barriers.
I don’t think his going will harm his long term development, and the thought of cheering for him has made the TdF a lot more exciting for me, and probably many others.
@John Re:ITTs
I’ll try to give it a last attempt, but I suspect we aren’t understanding each other on what the focus is. The TV aspect is just a variable in the mix which brings to the route design, but it’s not the main one, as you can observe thanks to the huge independent fluctuations through the years.
No stable correlation is to be found between increasing or decreasing mountain stages vs. ITT or even TTs in general.
I’ll start with the 90s as 1989 is the usual reference for the “full TV commercial and global era” (not there was no TV before, but the logic was different, it’s not a given year, either, just a reference). And in 1990 we had the first fully televised stage from start to finish.
In 1990 or 1991 we typically have some 4 varied TTs and equal mountain stages. Then you have *less mountain stages* for a couple of years before they ramp up again to levels comparable to today. But harder. No need to take away TTs for that,
For example, in 1994 or 1995 you had no less than 6 überhard mountain stages *and* the usual set of prologue + 2 long ITTs plus one TTT, as in previous years when you really had less mountain stages.
In 1996-1999 they’d take the TTT away but *also some mountain stages* when compared to the couple of years before.
Then in the first half of the years 2000 the TTT and often prologue was back but no mountain stages were added.
So it’s quite clear that there’s no trend of trade off between mountains and TTs.
Mountain stages come and go in “waves” or “cycles”. Just as recent terms of comparison:
In 2021 and 2022 you had the same number of mountain stages as in 94-95… all shorter and easier.
In 2017 and 2018 you had less mountain stages (4 or 5 at most depending on how you adjust criteria).
We also had had half a dozen mountain stages in 2013-2014 after a gradual trend of growth with its peak in 2015, then reversed.
Instead, I’ll heartily agree about a trend of reduction in the total *number* of TT stages during the last 20 years.
Is there a turning point in the curve? Yes. Take a rolling set of 3 years, the first time the majority of editions has less than 3 TTs is 2008-2010. The last time the majority has at least 3 TTs is 2012-2014. (It works with a set of 5 yrs also, respectively 2007-2011 and 2009-2013).
Hence, the turning point of the curve is the late 00s and early 10s when a new standard of total 2 varying kind of TT stages (that’s what matters the most for TV, mind, not if it’s TTT or sometimes even uphill ITT) is established.
Despite having 1 only in 14-20-23, these still look like exceptions compared to the previous switch in trend. None would impact as majority in any rolling set of editions.
Is that really about TV? Or about “having more stages live from start to finish”?
My take?
Guess what?
No.
Why? Because trends do not correspond at all with key events in chronology. TV gave a first symbolic step up in importance from 1989-1990 on. Mountain stages as said vary freely, whereas no correlative impact on TTs is to be seen for NEARLY 20 YEARS. It’s a long time to wait to justify a correlation!
When’s the next serious step in TV terms? Full televised stages being more normal – or all of them. Test year 2016 (6 stages), most or all in 2017.
The shift in the ITT number curve HAS ALREADY HAPPENED before!
Can we trust all the hopes for our theory on those 3 editions with a single TT? Very very long call, as one of them – 1 out of 3 – falls BEFORE the key date (2014 before 2016-2017). Having had 2 exceptional events in a whole decade, when we already had had one in the decade before is really too little, especially if we ALREADY HAVE NOTICED an existing trend of reduction with A DIFFERENT TURNING POINT which due to chronology implies no correlation to TV.
I hope (not much I guess) that it’s now clearer (not much I guess) what I mean.
Trend of correlation between having more mountain and less TTs? Not existing.
Trend of growth in number of mountain stages? Hard to establish due to their mixed and complex nature, but with broad evaluation we can rather say we have cycles or waves, not any unidirectional trend.
Trend of reduction of number of TT stage? Yes, clearly, from the second half of the 00s onward, a strong turning point around 2010, then absolute stability until at least 2022.
Can be the reduction of TTs be related to TV? Not at all, sheer chronology prevents that.
So there’s no relation between TV and TTs? Of course TTs often don’t work for audience, but no clear pattern in decision making can be detected to identify this factor as the one which determined the above defined trend.
Extra observation? The long terms trends of reduction concern more the “quantity of effort” (ITT length, *as well as* mountain marathons with many kms and altitude gain). But this is even more complicated to examine.