Giro Stage 2 Preview

Saturday, 4 May 2013

Mark Cavendish Giro Stage 1 Naples

A very technical 17km team time trial on the small island of Ischia. Sometimes this kind of stage can be a test of raw power and aerodynamics but this one is very different, a true test of a team’s ability to hold together.

It’ll be hard for Mark Cavendish (OPQS) to hold onto the jersey. His team are the World Team Time Trial Champions but in name only as not one of the winning squad from Limburg last year rides in the Giro.

Stage 1 Verdict: watching the race was like gazing at Mount Vesuvius across the Bay of Naples, it’s nice to watch but you’re secretly hoping to see things erupt. The stage was dormant for a long time. But remember this is a three week race and the race is in no hurry to reach Brescia. After all it started and finished in the same place.

Cameron Wurf (Cannondale) and Giovanni Visconti (Movistar) steamed off the front. Wurf persisted and it wasn’t in vain, he got publicity for the team and also started racking up kilometres for the Giro’s Fuga prize which rewards breakaways whilst Visconti takes the mountains jersey. The eruption came in the end but was as unpredictable as a volcanic event with a crash taking down several sprinters and delaying everyone else. But that’s sprinting, you need to be at the front and Mark Cavendish survived a lead-out mechanical by Geert Steegmans (OPQS) to blast past Matthew Goss (Orica-Greenedge) and Elia Viviani (Cannondale) who collects the best young rider jersey. Perhaps the result was predictable but the method was not.

It’s the perfect result for the race as it tries to reach a global audience as Cavendish is one of the sport’s few stars with a reach and notoriety that extends well beyond cycling. But if that’s certain, mystery remains over how many wins he has had in his pro career. It depends on your sources and which events you count. Some say 103 but others are still waiting to celebrate his 100th win. Either way it’s a lot.

The Route: 17.4km across the island of Ischia. The road twists and turns a lot and has a busy feel, it’s crowded by buildings along the route. Don’t expect wild roads and winds blasting in off the coast. Instead the challenges are man-made with some tight turns and even a tunnel towards the end. It could be harder if the race was taken inland but there’s no point prising apart the overall classification too wide in the first weekend.

The Scenario: Last year’s Giro Stage 4 produced a mix of the predictable and the surprise. Garmin won… but Katusha were second. This is instructive because Garmin are known for their attention to detail for this type of event whilst Katusha came with a collection of strong rouleurs.

We’ll get the first round of Team Sky versus Astana, both have strong riders for this event but I’m not sure either will win. You might think Sky are the better team but remember this time last year Astana were well ahead of them. Astana haven’t ridden the course, Nibali told Italian TV he hasn’t visited but is instead relying on team staff to supply information from their visit. According to Velonews several other squads are in the same position, including Sky.

If we widen it beyond these two teams for me Garmin-Sharp and BMC both have a very strong team and are contenders for the win along with Orica-Greenedge and Radioshack-Leopard.

Top-10 Overall
1 Mark Cavendish (GBr) Omega Pharma-Quick Step 2:58:18
2 Elia Viviani (Ita) Cannondale Pro Cycling 0:00:08
3 Nacer Bouhanni (Fra) FDJ 0:00:12
4 Danilo Hondo (Ger) RadioShack Leopard 0:00:16
5 Marco Marcato (Ita) Vacansoleil-DCM Pro Cycling Team 0:00:18
6 Giacomo Nizzolo (Ita) RadioShack Leopard 0:00:20
7 Matthew Goss (Aus) Orica-GreenEdge
8 Francisco Ventoso (Spa) Movistar Team
9 Adam Blythe (GBr) BMC Racing Team
10 Leigh Howard (Aus) Orica-GreenEdge

I’m not confident about OPQS’s chances and neither Cannondale nor FDJ are expected to do much either. As a result Radioshack could put Danilo Hondo into the overall lead, a bizarre turn for the second oldest rider in the race whilst Orica-Greenedge have Goss ready whilst BMC’s Blythe could take the lead from his countryman.

Blanco and Katusha should be near the front and the same for Movistar. Watch for accidents, a moment of inattention or a corner taken the wrong way can spell disaster.

Weather: the forecast says overnight rain showers will clear and the roads will dry quickly with a temperature of 26°C and sunny skies. A light breeze of 10-15km/h will swing from the south to the west means which means a mild headwind out on the course for the later starters. Not much but just enough to offer an extra reward to the most cohesive of teams who can form a single aerodynamic unit.

TV: the first team is off at 3.40pm and the last team is expected to arrive at 5.15pm. With luck the producers will be able to show the action up-close but also cut away to reveal the stunning scenery of the bay of Naples.

Local info: Ischia is a big tourist destination, especially for many Germans including Chancellor Angela Merkel. The sea is one attraction but the main draw is the thermal activity from volcanism with hot springs and mud.

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{ 24 comments }

BC May 4, 2013 at 7:21 pm

INRNG. Many thanks’ for the time, insight and effort you put into your blog. I think your questions concerning the TTT course are likely to prove true, the result therefore very difficult to predict.

Alex S May 4, 2013 at 8:54 pm

The times are now showing all the same (as expected as crash that split peloton was inside last 3km), but I can’t see any reference to time bonuses. I thought there were 20-, 12-, and 8-second bonuses this year.

The Inner Ring May 4, 2013 at 9:37 pm

They are and the GC should be reflecting this. I’ve adjusted the top-10 above with it.

Chris May 4, 2013 at 9:24 pm

Can’t see Cav keeping his lead.

It’ll be interesting to see who is ahead on GC tomorrow amongst the main pretenders for the race.

The Inner Ring May 4, 2013 at 9:40 pm

Time gaps should be small for most of the big teams but still, a minute is possible between them and this counts for plenty.

Galli May 4, 2013 at 9:58 pm

Strange no team checked course, it sounds so difficult that knowing route is a big help.

ak May 4, 2013 at 10:15 pm

Maybe they get a test ride tomorrow? I don’t know the place at all, but if there is a lot of traffic, or the route goes the wrong way up a one-way street it can be hard to do real reconnaissance. Or they’re just being unprofessional of course.

The Inner Ring May 5, 2013 at 8:41 am

You’re right as the roads are busy, no team could practice. But riders could visit.

Remember teams will use radios and can signal corners and other obstacles to riders like a rally driver co-pilot.

Anonymous May 4, 2013 at 10:17 pm

I must admit that I’ll watch stage two mainly for the fun of spotting the team that will best emulate the Keystone Kops.

PS Three riders had 3 pts in the Maglia Azzurra competition. Did Visconti get it because he won the first sprint?

The Inner Ring May 4, 2013 at 11:09 pm

They were equal so it was based on who was first in the finish today.

Al__S May 4, 2013 at 11:32 pm

whilst he’d had good service most of the day, the finish itself was yet another reminder that Cavendish can sprint properly- he doesn’t always rely on a well drilled train. He’s not the one-trick-pony some try to typecast him as.

RooBay May 5, 2013 at 12:54 pm

Couldn’t agree more. Cav is one of the greatest sprinters we have seen in the past 30+ years.

TheDude May 5, 2013 at 2:23 am

Scraping the scoop intelligence from the snot noses at VeloNews? :-( Say it isn’t so. I hope INRNG’s source data points for the remainder of the Giro will be from more refined and reliable feeds than the part time journalism interns at VN. LOL

The Inner Ring May 5, 2013 at 8:39 am

I originally put that Astana didn’t know the course but Velonews got the story that many others didn’t either. It’s worth sharing I hope because knowing this course helps, it’s not one big long road.

299e May 5, 2013 at 4:23 am

Still can’t quite get with the tall socks.

Anonymous May 5, 2013 at 8:50 am

Nor me, they look daft.

Anonymous May 5, 2013 at 8:54 am

Taller socks = Bigger adverts

Larry T. May 5, 2013 at 9:42 am

We’re fortunate here in Italy since we get the post-race Processo alla Tappa show. Nibali said there he had not seen the TTT route among other things. The idea that chrono stuff might be left on the mainland is wonderful – all it does is drive up the costs to field teams. If all the riders used a standard road bike with some “geek bars” bolted on, money would be saved while the results would quite likely be no different.

GP May 5, 2013 at 12:36 pm

If Cav & OPQS can’t hold onto the Maglia Rosa I’m hoping BMC come away with the win and Adam Blythe takes the lead. He seems to have been around for so long I was very surprised to learn he’s only 23.

Anonymous May 6, 2013 at 12:51 pm

Adam Blythe – he first came to my notice in 2004, when he was taking on men twice his age and size in the rough-and-tumble of the grass-track racing at Mildenhall. No amount of physical intimidation put him off and he won a large proportion of the races he entered. I must have been impressed to make a note of his name, and it was no surprise when he appeared in the pro ranks.

mot May 5, 2013 at 3:31 pm

Any startlisit/times for the TTT?
Thx.

The Inner Ring May 5, 2013 at 3:52 pm
Karl May 6, 2013 at 5:32 pm

As you said, OPQS won the World Team Trial. I couldn’t tell from the pictures, but is there some indicator of that on their TTT kits? Some kind of rainbow bands? Is that just for the people who competed and won?

The Inner Ring May 6, 2013 at 5:33 pm

They have a small logo on the kit and everyone on the team wears it, even the neo-pro or riders like Cavendish who have joined for this year.

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