This stage ought to go to the breakaway, and if not then end in a reduced bunch sprint. The flat finish doesn’t suit the Slovenian and with many riders well down on GC already plenty can go clear and not trouble the overall classification.
Angles fermés: it took 90 minutes for the breakaway to form. Visma-LAB tried a few times to place Matteo Jorgenson but Isaac del Toro closed him down.
A solid move of 19 went clear including Alex Baudin who was the best placed on GC and while Egan Bernal had worked hard to get in the move, punctured and could not chase back. For a moment it looked like Baudin’s mechanics could have started opening the boxes of yellow accessories in anticipation of him being the new race leader as the bunch sat up and many leaders stopping to urinate. Only Visma-LAB got back to work, presumably hopeful to keep the yellow jersey. They still haven’t announced a replacement sponsor for next year.
With the move within range, UAE took up the chase, reportedly a decision taken by the riders and not the team car. The breakaway could feel it and looked resigned, all the effort to go clear but they could not sustain it.
Once on the short climb to the line Isaac del Toro took over from his colleagues to lead out Tadej Pogačar who floated away for the win, opening up daylight on Jonas Vingegaard who was so bent over the bars in the sprint he seemed to be cowering with Richard Carapaz and Paul Seixas with him two seconds down, and the other GC names at four seconds. Tom Pidcock was a mild surprise at 18s.
It was surprising to see UAE chasing for hours. But Tadej Pogačar wanted the win and the chance to defrock Jonas Vingegaard. It seemed a lot of effort for another win but what price getting one over your rival? It’s the first time Vingegaard has ever lost the yellow jersey.
The Route: 181km and 2,700m of vertical gain. After several days for the GC contenders and baroudeurs this syage was meant to be for the sprinters but the layout of roads in Foix and some municipal refusals to uproot street furniture meant the plan was changed with an extra day in the hills to shrink the bunch by the time they reach the finish.
It’s south out of Carcassonne amid the Limoux vineyards. The first 20km aren’t big roads but they roll well. After 30km things get wilder with twisting sections, climbs and a road that’s one minute in a canyon and then another on an exposed plateau.
The Col du Paradis is pleasant and, away from the Tour very peaceful, but no paradise for climbers. A gentle descent with some corners gives way to roads shaded by plane trees and the intermediate sprint in Quillan. The Col de Coudons twists around a lot but is very steady.
The Col de Montségur is the hardest climb and after a gentle start there’s 4km at 7-8% to the top below the rocky cliffs upon which is perched the Montségur fort.
There’s an unmarked climb with 12km to go but it’s difficult ambush terrain, a wide road with good visibility.
The Finish: the course drops into the Ariège valley. Once by the river there it’s into the town of Foix and a right turn over the bridge with 300m to go for a flat finish.
The Contenders: a good chance for the breakaway and now that Pogačar has got one over Vingegaard perhaps UAE don’t need to chase. They could loan the yellow jersey but almost 150 riders are over ten minutes down so they can keep it without much work.
This stage is open to plenty of riders, it’s less mountainous than Stage 3. It could end in a reduced bunch sprint too.
Quinn Simmons (Lidl-Trek) is suited and will try again. He won a stage in the Aura Tour with his sprint and can take confort from not having to go solo but he has the engine for this in the finish. Team mate Mads Pedersen is in the green jersey already and can score double at the intermediate point and then the finish, or hope to sweep up at the finish on a day when others will be dropped.
Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) is a finisseur and said he’s got two goals this season: the French championships and a Tour stage. Now he’s shown the form to win the first the latter is possible.
Dorian Godon (Netcompany) has a string of World Tour wins this year and can crown that with a stage win thanks to his sprint.
Luke Plapp (Jayco) tried on Stage 3 and can win here but would he have to go solo to do this? Matej Mohorič (Bahrain) ought to be a contender but he hasn’t won a road race since February 2024. Similarly Ben Healy (EF) is a fit for the stage but is the form sufficient?
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Simmons, Godon, Pedersen |
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Grégoire, Plapp, Healy, Aranburu, Cort |
Weather: hot with 39°C during the stage. A gentle breeze from the south of 10-15km/h should be a cooling breeze.
TV: KM0 is at 1.25pm and the finish is forecast for 5.35pm CEST. Tune in early to catch the battle for the breakaway.
How many times do UAE have to chase down a breakaway before other teams begin to collaborate against them in earnest? And would/could such collaboration ever be effective? What precedent is there for this, if any?
To reply by looking through your lense/telescope in the other direction, Visma’s work today helped set up UAE for the stage win. The question here is also when will teams and rivals leave all the work to UAE?
Not many I can remember in GTs but several ones in shorter stage races, in the last 15 years I can recall Tirreno, Itzulia, Dauphiné, Catalunya… although it’s sometimes hard to differentiate “other teams collaborating against a leading team” from… a normal aggressive breakaway to turn GC upside down, plus it often ends up being 2-3 top athletes collaborating among them each for their own objectives.
Another Pogi win. Teams need to leave it to UAE to manage but don’t.
How much will UAE make it known that a breakaway can win but has to be at least 10 minutes back on GC?
Would love Grégoire to win this; it sure seems like this stage is wide open.
I think that since Pogi and Vingegaard are equal in the standings, it will be their placement on tomorrows stage, that determine who gets the yellow.
If so, will we see pogi and Vingegaard at the back of the peloton at the finishline to avoid it or at the front 😉