Giro d’Italia Stage 18 Preview

A good day for a breakaway, today’s stage leaves the Alps for a tour of Lombardia of sorts.

Stage 17 review: a maxi fuga, a giant breakaway with 40 riders up the road at one point before it halved on the Passo Tonale and then thinned out further on the Mortirolo.

Richard Carapaz attacked on the Mortirolo. He had Georg Steinhauser up the road as a relay rider but he also had 50km to go. Like “trying to dig a hole in water” to use the Italian expression? It did cost energy but it wasn’t fruitless either as it suggests he can ride away and rivals can’t react in real time and so watch out on the climbs to come, the Tzecore climb beckons tomorrow.

Up head the breakaway was reduced to one when Romain Bardet attacked on the final climb of Le Motte and normally he’d have taken the stage with this. But earlier Polti had missed breakaway and did a punishment chase to bring the bunch closer, then the GC group behind was towed by Q36.5’s Damien Howson to give Tom Pidcock a chance. And then UAE went for the stage, Rafał Majka pulling on the final climb before Isaac del Toro jumped and only Carapaz could follow.

The central American tandem caught Bardet and then in the streets of Bormio, as it began to rain, Del Toro attacked and carved through the final corners as if he was applying for an Olympic medal in the slalom here next year. Bardet later said he’d never seen anyone lean the bike over as much.

Del Toro gets a stage win in pink, a mark of a champion if he wins the race; if he doesn’t then it’s still a stunning day and month for a 21 year old. The moment suited, a punchy short climb but the tactics helped the strategy as he got ten seconds on Carapaz overall and 25 seconds on Simon Yates. He looks vulnerable in the coming days but it remains intriguing.

The Route: 144km and 1,800m of vertical gain, today’s a mini Lombardia with the finish on the outskirts of Milan. There’s enough climbing for a breakaway, plus we’re i the third week and riders who can’t climb or sprint this is the only chance left for a stage win.

The Finish: with 32km to go the race enters a finishing circuit and does two laps of 15km around town, it’s all flat.

The Contenders: if today’s not promised to the sprinters they and their teams can still try. The curiosity is Wout van Aert, essential to lead-out Olav Kooij but will he not prefer to go up the road, especially as sotto voce Kooij is leaving the team? Similarly surely Mads Pedersen will want to go up the road rather than face a sprint, and possibly Matthias Vacek too for Lidl-Trek? Alpecin-Deceuninck should chase but how many other teams, Picnic-PostNL as well?

Breakaway picks are Dries de Bondt (Decathlon-Ag2r), Kasper Asgreen (EF) again, Taco van den Horn (Intermarché) but they’re picks among many on a stage open to plenty before the race turns back into the Alps.

Pedersen, Groves, WvA
Asgreen, De Bondt, TvdH

Weather: warming up, 29°C and sunshine

TV: KM0 is at 14.00 and the finish is forecast for 17.15 CEST.

Postcard from Morbegno
The Giro is back in Morgbegno. It’s not a remarkable town and the Giro has been here before. The last time was in 2020 when a rider strike saw the peloton refuse to start the stage. Wet, tired and fed-up, this was a rider strike born out of frustration rather than any particular incident. That’s notable as the peloton has since had other moments like this.

Is the race back in Morbegno because it’s a useful start town in the Alps in terms of accommodation and road connections? Or to make amends for the last time when the mayor wanted to wave the peloton off only to find everyone stayed inside their team buses? We won’t know as nobody will say it aloud.

But let’s note tomorrow’s stage to the Aosta valley too, the Giro goes back after another rider strike in 2023. This time we know of frustration as there are minutes of meetings from the regional assembly where politicians blasted the Giro organisers for this: they paid and didn’t get the show they wanted. It’s good to see they’ve made up and possibly the race goes back today with heavily-discounted hosting fees to make up. Look out to see if Giro goes back to Livigno soon after last year’s rider strike.

There was still a race that day and Josef Cerny won the stage, possibly a result that got him a contract late on October when he was on the soon to vanish CCC team. He’s back now with Soudal-Quickstep so watch for him today too.

54 thoughts on “Giro d’Italia Stage 18 Preview”

  1. Carapaz’s attack on the Mortirolo seemed odd with so far still to go and mostly downhill or flat. Saving himself for the last 3km seemed the sensible move.
    Chapeau though Del Toro who responded with “attack is the best form of defence” although longer climbs might demand calmer responses.
    Visma had 4 guys in the break, but did not seem to know why. Poor ol’ Polti missed the break (how?!) and they all paid for it.

    • You don’t know if you don’t try.

      Had Simon been able or willing to go along, they’d have restricted the final maglia rosa fight to the two of them, which to me looked a nice move for both. Also Bora could have played much better their cards to support Pelizzari, which might have helped Carapaz, too.

      Finally, if they barely could hold a gap on the chasers after everybody having been under pressure on the Mortirolo and on, it means that without such a previous move no selection at all could have happened on Le Motte. Plus, obviously the break would have taken the stage, hence a Carapaz attack on Le Motte was going to make even less sense and find no company whatsoever from anyone, with no *possible* extra prize (stage win chance, bonus seconds).

      I can agree that this whole effort to gain mere 15″ might be a mistake if you pay for it later in the race, yet, again, some of the added value of trying lied in the possibilities which didn’t materialise (but might have). And today is in theory a “recovery” stage.

      Finally, and on a very theoretical level, Carapaz is a fondo athlete, which means that is the race as a whole becomes harder for everybody (as it surely did), he’s got (on paper) a relative positive edge on the rest come the final days.

      • Carapaz also verified he should be able to distance Del Toro on a climb while Yates is unwilling or unable to cooperate.

        Carapaz may attack tomorrow, but probably don’t need to: he must be the firm favourite for claiming the race lead in Sestriere anyway.

        • Yates (Simon) did have 4 guys up the road, for some reason, and Del Toro seemed to yo-yo a bit, but on reflection, that might well have been his team telling him to stay put and not follow every attack.
          We might well see it coming down to Carapaz trying to attack and team UAE grinding him down.

          • Also: Carapaz may have thought, if He didn’t soften up the kid on the Mortirolo, He may have lost even more time on the stage.

          • I won’t leave your dad joke hanging! But seriously folks, I think Gee will play a big role in the denouement of this Giro.

  2. Every day throws up multiple surprises. After looking strong on stage 16 and finishing ahead of Del Toro, Bernal, Poole and Yates*2, Storer finished yesterday an anonymous 29th and looks likely to lose a top ten which Poole would be delighted to claim.

  3. “The central American tandem”? Carapaz is from Ecuador, whic is in South America, and Del Toro is from Mexico, which is n North America (from the northern part of Mexico, to be precise). 1 north + 1 south = 2 central?

  4. Another twist to this first class GT. All to play for on Friday & Saturday, looks like better weather so hopefully not another crash fest.

  5. Sprint and be merry for tomorrow you will die!
    Friday and Saturday really do look brutal and none of them can be looking forward to it.

  6. Really have to salute Del Toro’s mentality yesterday?

    This doesn’t feel like a Simon Yates situation (where he was able to climb with the best but over extended himself in early weeks), Del Toro may be the opposite of missing the top end climbing ability but having the recovery (although we don’t really know) – but either way, to rebound at his age and pull that kind of attack to nab a stage win this late in the race after a disappointing stage is truly remarkable?

    Very very impressed – felt like the definition of ‘going down swinging’ if he is set to lose the jersey in the coming days… but who knows?

    Think he deserves a huge amount of credit.

  7. Also – Isn’t Ayuso a strange one? Gianetti’s interview yesterday said four different things as far as I could understand (please feel free to correct me if I’m wrong):

    first – his knee injury is bad, second – he’s ill, third – maybe he raced too much earlier in the season, fourth – maybe he’s struggling mentally…

    Which is it? All are understandable but I can’t help but think the truth is the fourth by listing all together and then saying they are not removing him from the race? Why keep him in the race is he’s offering little help and he’s ill plus has a knee injury? Only answer is to harden him up mentally I guess?

    This race so far just feels like a bad sign of things to come for him being usurped by another teammate, although Remco had his nightmare Giro and bounced back so let’s see.

    (I still hold that Giro slightly against Remco for calling back a stronger rider at that time in Almeida to help on the gravel stage!)

    • There is a lot of speculation in Spanish media on whats going on. Predictably some turns on that he has been upstaged by a “disloyal” IDT and/or a sinister internal UAE plot, others that he is just not ready for center stage yet, and the combination of over-training and injuries just pile on the mental load. Personally I’m inclined to agree with the latter. He has been less than happy with the UAE politics and priorities, but his paycheck has so far been big enough to dampen any open rebellion. However his burning ambition will likely only increase and his relationship with both Gianetti and Pog is supposedly so-so, so I would be surprised to see him to stay out his contract to the end of ’28.

      • I think Ayuso has been overtaken by Pellizzari now so he needs to get himself somewhere where he is happy.
        Pellizzari also looks like the best climber going into Friday/Saturday although Gee could be the dark horse.

      • Does Ayuso have the right to be less than happy with goings on at UAE? He’s at a big team with other big riders, including the biggest, so naturally he won’t have the limelight all to himself. He has to earn it, and hasn’t yet. It also brings the risk of being upstaged by the next bright young thing the team signs, and the one after that. The big fat pay check helps smooth these things out. At the minute he comes across a bit like some young largely unproven footballer who has been called up by Argentina and is annoyed Messi gets all the attention.

        • I don’t think it a question to have the right or not – at least from Ayuso’s POV. Combining Ayuso’s talent and (self-)discipline with his – admittedly – deep-rooted self-image and burning ambition may create a super-domestique but only for so long. Eventually the money doesn’t matter any more – the ambition takes over, rational or not. And I think that’s what starting to show itself. The rumours about clashes under last years Tour are getting louder, and Ayuso knows that Pog will be the star for the foreseeable future and that IDT is more and more looking like the designated heir. So what to do? Logically – and financially – swallowing the pride, take the money and stick to the chores within UAE may the rationale choice but eventually this is sports. And the egos will rule.

          We will see.

          • Can see Ayuso moving sooner rather then later. He will never been number 1 at UAE with Pogacar there, so like Roglic going to Bora, to be a team leader he’ll have to move.
            If Roglic does struggle at the Tour, then maybe Ayuso to some team like Bora would make sense.

      • To me this is just like Roglic at the 2023 Vuelta. Ayuso needs to read the writing on the wall and find a way to move on.

          • Agree. But I also think that Ayuso will look at Roglic as a prime example as staying to long before switching, even though there are obvious differences.

  8. What a Giro we are having!

    Something tells me that Yates (yellow one) is playing a very conservative game so far. He could steal it all on the last two mountain stages.

    Carapaz looks so strong. His way of racing really lights up this race.

    And Del Toro.. what a racer

    • Yeah, Yellow Yates and his diesel climbing is much more suited to the high mountains. But if Carapaz can stay with him, Yates is in big trouble because he can’t match the brutal accelerations. Del Torro is an unknown quantity. A lot of things seem to point to him being dropped. But who knows.

    • I enjoyed the punishment chase. A nice hit of nostalgia. Am sure the Polti riders did not share that feeling. But it really did seem futile, an odd choice by the DS. Though I appreciate they have very little to show for their efforts this Giro.

      I too was disappointed for Bardet, was really rooting for him. But giving a heroic ride and just – just – falling short really through no fault of his own seems like a fitting summary of his career. I am sure he will give it one more go, and will again at the Dauphine.

      • Though on reflection I feel it was Howson’s effort on behalf of Pidcock that really did for Bardet. Another weird move? Maybe. It seemed too late to genuinely be an attempt on the stage (then De Toro proved that wrong), so it almost had the air of a dress rehearsal – that Q365 are practicing being a GC team.

        • The tricky finish with all the bends was Pidcock terrain, but he’s looked short of form. Remember he started the season with a bang and a point to prove and hasn’t had much of a break between the classics and the Giro; where his team got a relatively late invite too. But if UAE raised a glass of champagne last night they could send a bottle to Q36.5 too.

        • It looked to me like Pidcock wanted to try for the stage, thinking that the twisty finale and his sprint ability could poach him the win. And perhaps he felt buoyed having stayed with the lead group up the Mortirolo, until Carapaz’s attack…of course when they hit Le Motte, he went backwards quickly even before Del Toro’s attack. But if you don’t try…

          That said, Blythe mentioned on commentary that Pidcock is apparently riding to stay with the lead group as much as possible, to test his endurance for a GC attempt on the Vuelta. And that would explain the way he’s riding, and maybe the way Howson rode yesterday. Certainly, he’s got a better chance of preparing properly for the Vuelta compared to this Giro, when he only found out he was invited about 2 minutes before the start!

        • I’ve heard a lot of chatter about the way Pidcock is racing, but it makes perfect sense to me (assuming that he wants to develop as a GC racer). Only one way to find out, right? The more interesting question for me is what the problem really was at Ineos if it wasn’t the GC question.

    • I’ve never understood the punishment chase… ‘right lads we have f*cked this up, so we want you to ride on the front and draw attention to the fact that we have f*cked this up’.

      • Plus it’s self-sabotage for the next day. But I think it’s more the team manager shouting “we have to be in the break” in the team briefing, they miss it and the enraged manager then starts issuing threats about contracts, never being selected again etc… but it’s usually bluff, normally if you’re selected to ride the Giro for Polti or another Pro Conti team it’s because you’re one of their best eight and not someone filling in between injuries.

    • Contador (who has links with the team) was saying on Eurosport that it was because Kometa was the local Lombard sponsor, and the team had to have some visibility after missing the break (and then went on to describe cows grazing and praise bresaola as part of the explanation). I thought it was a peculiar explanation, weird even (given that to my knowledge Kometa doesn’t sell bresaola).

  9. The Giro has always generally been my fav GT and I’m absolutely loving this one. Del Toro’s fightback on this stage was great to see and his panache on the bike was thrilling to watch.

  10. Isn’t it about time E. Hayter proves his worth to QS? He did a decent time trial the other week, which is conventionally a sign of decent shape as well but a stand out result we’re yet to see from him. Anyway Cerny will be in the break for sure.

  11. so i’ve watched nearly every stage of this giro and i can’t tell the difference between any of them.

    it feels like every day is a repeat of the previous day. i can’t follow the narrative of who is strong or who is leading the race.

    this has just not been a good race at any point.

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