Giro d’Italia Stage 15 Preview

The Giro goes into the Alps… but gently. This should be a day for the breakaway more than the overall contenders.

Borderlines: the breakaway stayed away or at least Kasper Asgreen did, ditching his two fellow fugitives in the streets of Nova Gorica. Always a tough customer to bring back – he’s won a Tour stage this way – it did seem unlikely, improbable even that he’d pull it off earlier in the stage. Rain helped as this had disrupted the chase. Above all a big crash changed plenty.

With 23km to go, just before the crossing back into Slovenia there was a pinch-point with cobbles painted with road markings and several riders fell, blocking the street. As the halted riders hobbled about, Mads Pedersen was first visible among the fallers but it was his team mate Giulio Ciccone who seemed to come off worse, sitting on the kerb for a while and in the moment it hard to work out what was going on.

The crash split the race and up ahead Visma-LAB pressed on, burning up Wout van Aert. With only Simon Yates left to pull for Olav Kooij it was an uneven contest and Asgreen kept a 15 second lead to the finish.

The crash has reshaped the race:

  • Isaac Del Toro, Simon Yates, Richard Carapaz, Derek Gee, Max Poole and were the GC riders on the right side of the split
  • Juan Ayuso, Egan Bernal, Primož Roglič and Michael Storer lost 48 seconds
  • Antonio Tiberi, who was the first to crash, paid 1m44s
  • Ciccone lost 16 minutes, and won’t start today.

Race-shaping? Yes. Defining? Wait and see, so much can change the Alps, although probably not today, Tuesday’s stage should tell us plenty.

The Route: 219km and 3,900m of vertical gain. The Muro di Ca’ del Poggio is the first climb, more a ramp than a wall as it doesn’t get much than 15% but it’s notable all the same.

Monte Grappa’s got many roads on its flanks and this is one of the easier ascents but it’s still 25km to the top and hard from the start. The descent is even longer, 29km and with some uphill sections along the way too.

The course then passes Valsagna and the turning to the left that the race took in 2017 for Asiago via the steep and charming road to Foza. But this time it sticks to the valley and instead takes the more gradual road up to Dori, 16km at 5.5%. It’s still a climb and will shape the race but it’s not the compulsory GC selection.

The Finish: it’s not the same approach to Asiago as 2017 either, it’s gently downhill into town but this time without sharp corners before the finish.

The Contenders: this should be a day for the breakaway, it’s mountainous but the average gradient of the two main ascents is under 6% so it’s open to plenty, even more as the finish is flat. Plus the GC contenders normally don’t need everyone around them today, teams can spare a rider. This makes it hard to pick a winner, a fifth of the field are eligible picks.

Luke Plapp (Jayco) is a form pick, a stage winner already. But his team wanted him to go solo as is they don’t rate his sprint craft so doing this again isn’t easy. Pello Bilbao (Bahrain) is wily in a small sprint. Christian Scaroni (XDS-Astana) had been quiet until Friday’s stage but this suits, Wout Poels too but he’d prefer a hillier finale. The same for Romain Bardet (Picnic-PostNL). Marco Brenner (Tudor) is due a result, once a Wunderkind he’s still worth watching. Damien Howson (Q36.5) is a specialist at climbs under 6% but a win would be a big result. EF won yesterday, today suits Georg Steinhauser. UAE seem content to let riders have their own chances so Jay Vine seems most suited an unhindered.

If the break doesn’t stay away then Isaac del Toro (UAE) is a pick for the sprint. Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) is still within four minutes of the maglia rosa so won’t get much room to go on the breakaway. Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon-Ag2r) is good at these kind of stages but doesn’t seem in peak form; Marco Frigo (IPT) is on local roads.

–
Bilbao, Plapp, Vine
Scaroni, Brenner, Del Toro, Bardet, Steinhauser

Weather: sunny and 22°C

TV: KM0 is at 11.35 and the finish is forecast for 17.15 CEST.

Postcard from Asiago
Play word association in Italy with Asiago and you’ll get few responses celebrating Thibaut Pinot’s stage win here in 2017, nor Fabio Fontanelli’s triumph from the previous visit in 1998. Instead Asiago is in almost every supermarket thanks to the Rigoni Asiago range of jams and nocciolata (the hazelnut spread probably better as Nutella, the branded version made by Ferrero).

Stray into a hotel at the Giro and you might spot Asiago products at the breakfast spread of several teams; the company has supplied at least one pro team, others seem to purchase their produce.

A visit to an Italian supermarket today can be like picking up an old copy of Tutto Bici, the cycling magazine. Segafredo coffee is visible, likewise Scotti rice and Amica Chips. Carrera jeans might be piled high in the clothing section.

Once upon a time these relatively small brands each backed their own cycling team. Now they’re priced out. The entry ticket for a World Tour team is probably €20 million for a lone title sponsor these days but that’s going in at the bottom, think Intermarché or Arkéa, a sponsor might as well tip in €30 million and hope get noticed more. This is harder of course, it takes a big company but Italy has plenty, several banks, insurance, energy and oil companies, Pirelli could be a good fit. Arguably though it needs the catalyst of a star Italian rider, and for now at least Italy is in a jam.

45 thoughts on “Giro d’Italia Stage 15 Preview”

  1. What a crazy stage. How much work did S. Yates do to bring back Asgreen, and will he pay for it today?

    I appreciate it was also worth it for him to fully invest in the move as he is now second on GC. And that groups further back will have also paid a price for chasing, but having his head in the wind for so long surely not ideal.

  2. The crash that shook up the GC, a bit. Shame for Ciccone, and Tiberi has his work cut out now.
    Not so long ago, this sort of stage was Team Sky’s dream scenario, now I expect to see a lot of Majka on our TV screens. Fortunato to be looking for more KOM and Astana seem to send a teammate with him, so maybe two today and look for a stage win.
    30 guys up the road after Pedersen goes for the sprint points, I’d guess. Unless one of Ayuso or Roglic struggles then GC teams might up the pace.

    • I still think it’s more likely he will than that he won’t. Hard to hold form for three weeks and racers like Carapaz, Roglic, S. Yeates and Bernal who have all already won Grand Tours won’t want to walk away from this one without asking the question. Del Toro will be attacked on multiple fronts next week.

      Win or lose it should at least be entertaining…

  4. Did anyone see what happened with the Ineos rider (Turner?) in front of Tiberi? It looked like he his something, like a kerb, but there was nothing there.

    • I certainly do. It’s my favorite melty cheese. In the oven, it gets nice and melty while it also browns on top. On a piece of ciabatta with a couple slices of tomato. The perfect post-ride snack to eat while watching the stage today. Yummy!

    • Nice point on the cheese, but also Rigoni di Asiago has really gone from niche to mass (relatively so, as I’ll remark below).
      The jams and marmelades are top quality, and their products are always from organic farming, too. They sponsored the Italian national cycling team some years ago.
      I’ve been having breakfast every day with those jams and marmelades for, like, a couple of decades now.
      Not sure abput details, but I seem to remember they had a David vs. Goliath face-off with Ferrero when the latter brought them to court because of a TV ad which said something like “Nocciolata, no oil palm tree, so the orangutan stays happy too” – footage of happy orangutan.
      Ferrero claimed that, despite Nutella not being named, the ad implicitly meant that Nutella makes orangutans unhappy, which is libel, of course!
      The sort of case you’d only even try to make when your turnover is close to 20,000 millions and your rival’s some… 120 (!), so you believe you can make it a lawyer firms’ arm wrestling of sort (sounds a bit like cycling, only in cycling evil tends to prevail).
      A French court eventually ruled in favour of Rigoni for the whole case.

  8. I know cycling etiquette is a grey area but I felt slightly uncomfortable seeing Visma railing it after the crash. No logic to it I know. But super pleased to see Asgren stay away (despite the horrible helmet).

      • Much prefer the etiquette in CX and XC: if you crash or have a mechanical, that is 100% your problem, and nobody waits. Heck, in XC you are not even allowed a spare bike! The merit of this etiquette is that it’s direct simplicity.

    • I don’t think there was anything dubious about it. They were already committed to setting up the sprint and could not afford to give the break any leeway, as events proved. Jacky Durand on French Eurosport had no hesitation in dispelling any suspicions about that.

      Absolutely love the pun the end of the postcard section. Came out of nowhere and was genuinely very funny.

    • I know what you mean, but unless the race director takes action, then they haven’t done anything wrong. However, when we see crashes causing riders all over the road, then I’d like to see the cycling equivalent of a Full Course Yellow as seen in motor racing – the race is brought back together whilst everyone is sorted out/ checked – and then the race can restart.

      Losing time because of a crash of somebody else’s fault, I still find unacceptable – and if I was a sponsor, I’d want to know why this is just put down to ‘cycle racing’. Race directors need to be more proactive in pausing races; it’s 2025.

      • Once the race is underways, the commissaires take over. The race director cannot neutralise without being requested by the president of the jury.
        And if more neutralisation due to crashes, which type then? 5+ riders? If only pink jersey? Ciclamino? etc.
        Races are prone to these mishaps, it is an integral part of racing. More often than you see, neutralisation happens.
        Additionally, what you don’t see is the 2nd team car pulling riders to the end of the official convoy which, btw, is considerable in a race like the Giro

  9. To be honest this is the first time I have paid much attention to either Ayuso or Del Toro, not being a regular viewer of stage races other than the Giro and Tour. It is interesting to not that Ayuso carries this big reputation, and ego, around with him but as yet does not seem to have the positional sense or race instinct to go with it. He is never in the right place at the right time. If there is a split to be behind, or a group to be at the back of, he’ll be there. Del Toro on the other hand is always in the right place whenever needed. If he does have the beans for the genuine climbs in the last week he’ll be some rider.

    • You might have paid attention to them as inrng’s reader (both featured as young riders to keep an eye on – or two – I believe) 😉

        • I actually think Richard S has a point here…

          obviously i’ve followed both for a while, maybe even before INRNG articles!

          but it’s actually interesting and helpful to have a no baggage look from someone who’s seen them race less… thanks Richard S, I think you have a point, that natural ability to be in the right place at the right time is such an interesting quality that seems to only come to the fore at grand tours or over a number of years, as we now know with MVDP having relatively incidents along with Pog in contrast to Roglic, WVA, Vingegaard.

          admittedly Del Toro wasn’t in the right place at the right time for Pog in Strada B both times he was meant to lead out, but this Giro is a better representation of his bunch riding ability – and likely a lower calorie need follows on.

          as a fan it’s very easy to warm to these kinds of effortless riders as they always seem relaxed, even in interviews, whereas those less chilled often come across as tense off the bike as they do on – (although Roglic is an anomaly here! But maybe that’s in part the language barrier?)

          • “…as we now know with MVDP having relatively (few) incidents along with Pog in contrast to Roglic, WVA, Vingegaard.”

            And right on cue, MVDP crashes out at Novo Moesto. A full on OTB. Was he scheduled for the Dauphine?

          • If you haven’t yet heard:
            “…avulsion fracture of the scaphoid bone, indicative of ligament damage to the wrist.” (Cycling Canada today)

  11. An entertaining weekend, after all, on this terrible route 😀

    Mixed feelings about a race being entertaining because of crashes, but they’re part of road race and its open, chaotic side. Face adversities.

    Today looked mediocre to bad, then great, then not that special, but still good and, all in all, way above my expectations!

    I hope Vegni’s got still some cash to pay an extra to Carapaz and Bernal 😛
    I must admit that I never loved those two teams for different reasons, but, hey, totally hats off to the way they’re racing this Giro.

    I appreciate Del Toro as a clearly classy cyclist, but UAE is still trying to do everything possible in order to have me rooting against them, plus being actively looking for some improbable way to lose a race which is falling in their lap nearly by itself, or out their sheer athletical collective power (despite some individually underwhelming performing by Yates, for now; and not convinced by McNulty, either – but maybe they just programmed different peaking through the three weeks).

    • It has been better racing than expected, but not exactly for the best reasons. I wonder what kind of gap Del Toro would have if UAE were really backing him; I think it would be significantly bigger. I’m having flashbacks to the 2022 Vuelta, when Roglic crashed out and the race went down the drain, but this one looks like it will still be interesting while Ineos, Yates and Carapaz are still in with a shout. Plus, we get some Vuelta 2023 vibes with the UAE intrasquad dynamics! Trek have been hogging the wins, but I don’t mind because Pedersen is fun and at least it’s a different cast of characters. Overall, a very satisfying Giro so far, and still looking like good stuff until at least stage 19.

  12. Yep – highly enjoyable Giro, can’t complain at all. Trying to workout what happens if Del Toro falls apart and Ayuso doesn’t have the legs. A defensive UAE strategy only works so far on the coming parcour where the strongest riders will be making the race. Can totally see Bernal, Carapaz and Yates (and Tiberi?) riding with each other if the opportunity comes.

  13. So we can say that one of the pre-race favourites has fallen down the GC because of crashes. Will Roglic start on Tuesday? He’s supposed to do the Tour so I would not be surprised if he goes home early.
    Ayuso must be hoping Del Toro has a bad day as he has his work cut out to make back time. Del Toro can follow attacks as a team player but what happens if Ayuso suffers?
    Glad for Bernal to be back to some good form and hope he, Carapaz, Yates etc can continue the positive racing.

    • Red Bull Bora is already setting up to announce a Roglic withdrawal.
      Cycling News, published a day ago:

      “There is no point in hiding anymore that he doesn’t feel well, that he’s in pain. We tried to downplay it a little, and it worked until today, but today we saw the truth,” directeur sportif Christian Pömer told …
      “Pömer did not rule out Roglič abandoning the Giro. Any decision might only be made during Monday’s rest day, but it will be considered. “

  14. This Giro has certainly been a surprise! Despite what some deem a poor/-ish route, it has been good enough to provide some excellent racing and a ton of surprising moves, twists and turns. Compared to last year where Pog had a 6+ minute advantage after stage 15 in an immensely boring race, this year we have less than 9 minutes from IDT to Prodhomme as #20. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see the top-20 significantly shuffled more than once the last week. Bernal, Carapaz, Gee and the internal dynamics in UAE may turn out the best GT this year, and the best overall for years. Much as my Spanish heart beats for Ayuso I cannot help but rooting for Bernal…

    • Barring our opinions re:2024, this might turn out to be better than 2023 or 2024, indeed (not a hard feat, but I just hope I’m not jinxing it -___-), yet 2021 was probably better.
      Anyway, for this two weeks I’d still have preferred a route where well-executed aggressive racing had had more of a reward over UAE’s poor to mediocre racing.
      Now in GC the risk is that those who made it so entertaining have spent too much, and I’m thinking specifically Bernal. But that’s part of the game, no doubt, although in a GT I tend to like best a terrain which *fosters* a certain racing style, rather than making it mission impossible; or at least variety of patterns (Siena was *the* positive exception, and Ineos was unlucky then – I’m speaking of the way S. Pellegrino and Grappa were used… and Sassotetto, and Llogarase).
      How many serious duels have we seen among the top dogs? Those who’re out were mainly affected by crashes.
      OTOH, sure, as far as stage winning is concerned, top form and smart, bold racing by Trek got its prize despite Ciccone sadly retiring.
      However, the GC is posed for a fine 3rd week, and the terrain is now very often there. Fingers crossed.

      • gabriele

        We certainly disagree on the levels of “boredom” (I consider Gire 2024 as the absolute worst GT I’ve followed closely in recent years, closely followed by Tour 2024 and a few of the Froomes, but never mind. 🙂

        The (interesting) point is that it seems to be less than easy to design an “exciting” route, as the riders and dynamics may decide that even the best laid plans of mice and men… 🙂 That said, I fully agree that the RCS could have used the real estate much smarter and (maybe) added layers of racing to it. By the big thing here is “maybe”. I’m leaning towards that trying to force certain racing styles may be counter productive and that having “easy” or less “pre-thought-out” stages may trigger a more unpredictable and thus more exciting race. Of course this very much hangs on the field and the crashes, but it could be interesting to look into how pre-conceived stages impact the real race across a (large) number of races.

  15. It’s exciting coming into the 3rd week with a wide open field of racers.

    As an EF fan, I like their racing so far.

    Let’s hope (snowy, icy, rock fall…) weather doesn’t shorten or remove any stage plans.

    What does the forecast look like?

    • Warming up. There are always “It has snowed in the Alps” pre-Giro stories but these are usually a waste of time, the problem is if a cold front comes in when the race is in the Alps. This time it looks fine, especially for the end of the week.

  16. Looking at the top 20-ish riders, there seems to be a chance for a Guillaume Martin-esque leap into the top ten. It would take some unforeseen (at least by me) combination of circumstances, but I just can’t see UAE controlling everything and it doesn’t make sense for the other teams to do anything other than attack them. If Pidcock gets loose on the top of a climb, nobody will catch him on the descent. On the other hand, UAE does have the strength in numbers to make the race super hard if they decide to do so. But I’m not sure that they wouldn’t end up putting Ayuso in trouble and they’ve been strangely reluctant to sacrifice Yates and McNulty. They might just be lucky that Del Toro has diamonds in his legs, but that still remains a big question. In any case, I would be shocked if there aren’t big gaps tomorrow, but who will benefit and who will suffer???

    • I’d like to see Pidcock get a good result out of this Giro, but it doesn’t seem like he’s aimed to peak for this Giro?

      I had assumed he’s not there for GC, but for stage wins, as he said last year something along the lines that he didn’t think he was a GC rider. That therefore he’d be stage hunting. However, he seems to be trying to preserve his GC time, still within 6 min. He’s in a kind of no-man’s land, not close enough to be a GC contender – not even top-10, yet too close on time to be allowed loose by the peloton. I wonder if he is completely clear in his own mind about what his goal should be for this giro and if he is focused on it.

        • Of course, Pogi Giro 2024, Nibali TDF 2016, MvdP several TDFs.

          But do you think that’s what Pidcock’s doing? And training for what?

          I feel he arrived at the Giro too spent due to an intense start of the season with early races on high form and important race after important race all the time. He’d better let go and try the stage win but he struggles not to hang close to the GC men. I could be wrong of course.

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