Who Will Win The Tour de France?

Friday, 28 June 2013

Chris Froome Dauphiné Time Trial

Having looked at the other jerseys, now it’s time to assess the contenders for cycling’s ultimate prize, the yellow jersey and the overall win in the Tour de France.

Chris Froome is everyone’s pick and it’s easy to see why. But who are his rivals and how can he be beaten? Also the quantity of top-10 contenders stands out, promising a battle in the mountains.

Chris Froome (Team Sky) is the first choice. He can climb and time trial with the best. Second in 2012, this year’s route suits him better and he’s got a very strong team riding in his service. He’s improved technically, has experience of leading races and enjoyed a strong season from the Tour of Oman to the recent Critérium du Dauphiné. In this last race he was so far ahead he was trying to set up team mate Richie Porte for stage win. If you want to quantify his status the bookmakers price his chance of winning at worse than evens, odds even shorter than Bradley Wiggins this time last year.

2013 Tour de France bookmaker odds prices

The certainty is a concern for those wanting a show in the mountains given Wiggins’ win last year was a triumph of pacing and power over panache. But Froome is more able to attack in the mountains, the tempo riding of 2012 was designed for Wiggins. Still the fear is Sky will play it safe and set a pace to deter others from attacking until Froome launches a late moves to steal seconds.

How to beat Froome
His rivals can try two strategies. First is to disrupt Team Sky’s mountain pace-setting, even going as far as chopping and flicking riders out of the pace-line, for example taking an awkward line through hairpin bends. All’s fair in love and war. Second is to embrace Team Sky’s pacing and tuck in whilst playing on Froome’s attacking instincts and hope he launches a move that ejects his team mates and then others can gang up on him.

Alberto Contador (Team Saxo-Tinkoff) is a strong candidate but is this thanks to reputation or form? Banned this time last year he came back to win the Vuelta. But we wondered how big his margin of victory would be only he needed a surprise move on a medium mountain stage to take the race. It was an great result but not the domination many had expected. This year he’s had only one win and in the modest Tour de San Luis, an early season race in Argentina. It’s now all about improving on his performance in the Dauphiné. He took second on the stage to the ski resort of Valmorel behind Froome and complained of allergies during the race. The late spring this year in western Europe means pollen levels are still high; perhaps the variety that bugged him in June has gone but he could still suffer in July. A podium is possible but he’s over 30 now and not the same rider when he had the sulphurous Jose “Pepe” Martí as coach but if anything he’s more aggressive and willing to take risks. We’ll know a lot more after the Stage 11 time trial where a top-20 position would suggest he’s on track. He’s had a lite team in years past but the arrival of Russian tycoon Oleg Tinkov has meant Roubles to sign riders like Nico Roche, Roman Kreuziger plus Mick Rogers has transferred from Team Sky, bringing the inside scoop on Sky’s marginal gains.

All the talk is about Chris Froome but team mate Richie Porte was second in the Dauphiné. Climbing and time trialling with ease, he’s won Paris-Nice this year and has ambitions for the 2014 Giro. Visions of two Sky riders on the podium are déjà vu thanks to the Wiggins-Froome combo last year but there’s a difference as Froome and Porte are friends and train together regularly and we’re likely to see the 1-2 combo at work rather than the tandem ride of last year where the Froome-dog was called to heel.

Which brings us to Nairo Quintana (Movistar). A theme of 2013  is the resurgence of Colombian cycling but in 2012 Quintana was already leaving Sky trailing in the mountains to win a stage of the Dauphiné. His problem is one of experience, I can see him on the podium but leading the world’s biggest race is a lot for a 23 year old. Plus any haematological advantages from the past few months spent living at home in Colombia will fade by the third week of the Tour. That said he got stronger in the spring as he raced more, he was second on the Col d’Eze time trial of Paris-Nice in March and won the Tour of the Basque Country in April.

Notionally Quintana is supposed to ride in service of Alejandro Valverde. It’s hard to assess the Spaniard. He was off the pace in the Dauphiné but look back across the season and he’s been superbly consistent, finishing in the top-10 in the majority of races he’s completed, whether on GC or stages and one day races. He was seventh in the Dauphiné but once the time trial result delayed him he seemed to be playing with tactics a bit more. Movistar also come with Rui Costa who has just won the Tour de Suisse for the second time. He was impressive and won the race with a much more powerful display that last year. The Portuguese rider was 18th in the Tour and should do better this year. The impressive thing is the collective force of these riders in the mountains, the team will have plenty of options and many will count on them to disrupt Team Sky’s linear efforts.

Garmin-Sharp are also promising chaos. Ryder Hesjedal, Dan Martin and Andrew Talansky can all crack the top-10 and go higher. The team plan is to see where the cards fall and then back the best rider. The lack of hierarchy is intrinsic to the Slipstream philosophy. Each rider has their qualities, Martin is the climber who has come good this year with Liège-Bastogne-Liège and wants to prove himself in a stage race. Ryder Hesjedal’s looked good this until things fell apart in the Giro and Tour de Suisse, he’ll have some freshness for the final week and is reputed to be lighter than ever. Meanwhile everything is going to plan for Talansksy, the Tour is his target this year and he’s useful all rounder.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez has been targeting the Tour. In 2012 he was on the podium of the Giro and Vuelta and was close to winning these races outright. But the Tour is something else, unlike the Giro there are no time bonuses for him to snipe nor are there a succession of steep climbs for him to dance up as he did in the Vuelta. Above all the level is higher in the Tour plus he’s 34. He should not be dismissed outright and his punchy style helps liven up the race. He comes as package with Dani Moreno who arguably is having a better year with a win in the Flèche Wallonne and his third place in the Dauphiné bodes very well too.

If Rodriguez is 34, BMC Racing’s Cadel Evans is a still a contender at 36. If he were to win he’d overtake 1922’s Firmin Labot title as the oldest winner of the race. He was seventh last year but ill and his third place in the Giro was achieved after a late entry. Is he too tired now? In the past he’s been one to target races but if he’s in form his ability is proven by his 2011 Tour win. If not team mate Tejay van Garderen sets out on a quest to get the world to spell his name right and is a stealthy pick for the podium. He’s been fourth in Paris-Nice, third in the Criterium International and won the Tour of California. If he was on team duty in the Tour de Suisse this might have allowed him to ride tempo rather than burn out. All is building well and he’s a steady rider, a smooth running diesel whose powers of recovery should suit the final week.

Bauke Mollema Tour de Suisse

Bauke Mollema is Belkin’s leader with Robert Gesink for support. The newly branded team needs a result to win more sponsors and Mollema’s momentum from the Tour de Suisse could be just what’s needed. His lively riding in Switzerland was a pleasure to watch but behind the spectacle it took big power to ride away for the win on Stage 2.

Lotto-Belisol’s Jurgen van den Broeck has to be mentioned. Fourth overall in 2010 and 2012 but do you remember it happening? Clearly it takes big talent and dedication to achieve this result but he’s made one victory salute during his 11 years as a pro and its rare to see him attack. He’ll have to work hard as Lotto-Belisol come equipped with more wagons for André Greipel’s sprint train than mountain helpers.

By now we’re firmly into outsider territory. Jacob Fuglsang and Janez Brajkovič bring options for Astana and you can see them in the top-10 . Ag2r’s Jean-Christophe Péraud leads the brown-short brigade, he’s a likeable rider but exploring the frontiers of his talent to make the top-10 again. Thibaut Pinot can climb with the best and was tenth overall last year on a route that didn’t suit him. He’s better this year and wants “to confirm” as they say in French, I can see him in the top-10 with ease and taking a stage or two in the mountains but he’ll have to avoid being caught out at the back of the bunch, le placement is his weakness.

Consensus says Andy Schleck should be left to himself. But his results over the years and past ease in the mountains means if he hadn’t had such a tumultuous 12 months he’d be a nailed-on podium pick given the mountain overload this year. Radioshack-Leopard also come with Andreas Klöden and Haimar Zubeldia who was sixth last year but would you know if he walked past you in the street?

Any others for the top-10? Cofidis’s Rein Taaramäe has the clichéd big engine but it’s prone to breakdowns and overheating whilst new recruit Dani Navarro is a top climber. Vacansoleil-DCM’s Lieuwe Westra seems their best bet with Thomas de Gendt as a more random factor and Wout Poels remains a talent and it’s nice to see him back after his critical injuries last year. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is still having trouble with the time trials so a prestigious mountain stage win seems more likely than a high overall place but win in the mountains and you soar up the leaderboard too. Euskaltel-Euskadi’s Igor Antón is another climber to watch but again stage wins and the polka-dot jersey seem to be the goals although remember the Basque teams needs ranking points to stay in the top division. Przemyslaw Niemec had a strong Giro and could be Lampre-Merida’s best bet but the Tour is new for him. Orica-Greenedge’s Cameron Meyer impressed in Switzerland and should find the steady climbs of the Tour to his advantage.

Col de Sarenne Descent

Conclusion
Chris Froome is so far ahead do the others have to settle for second place? No, the Tour brings 20 stages where a crash or a puncture can be enough to ruin anyone’s chances and he’s as prone as anyone to have a bad day, it happened in  Tirreno-Adriatico where the weather iced him and Vincenzo Nibali and Contador Rodriguez rode away. Froome is my pick to win the race but I would not bet with the prices now.

What’s striking is the number of riders capable of a top-10 finish. Richie Porte, Tejay van Garderen and Alberto Contador seem to be the safe choices but what of all the others? It’s this uncertainty that promises plenty.

Who will win the White Jersey?
Tour de France: Who will win the Mountains Jersey?
Tour de France: Who will win the Green Jersey?

Anonymous June 28, 2013 at 2:11 pm

Contador will win.
He will be fully prepared.

Doubter June 28, 2013 at 9:09 pm

I hear people asserting that AC will win, but I’m not sure we’ve seen him in form remotely capable of competing for the TdF at all this year.
He hasn’t seemed the same rider since he came back from his ban, frankly.

Cameron June 28, 2013 at 11:20 pm

While you are right I do think that doubting Contador on this stage is probably foolish.

Bundle June 28, 2013 at 2:23 pm

Very good analysis, including the possibility of elbow-fighting up the Pailhères hairpins. :) One note: it was Rodríguez who rode away with Nibali in the way to Porto Sant’ Elpidio in T-A, not so much Contador, who was left behind.

The Inner Ring June 28, 2013 at 2:26 pm

Thanks, the memory plays tricks.

Oscar June 28, 2013 at 2:52 pm

Thanks for your preview! I think you should also take into account the strong squad that Riis has built around Contador with Kreuziger, Roche and Rogers. Excellent stuff!

Besides… Sky has no secrets at all for Riis and Contador, with Rogers and Steven de Jongh on board. I think they are going to do the trick.

The Inner Ring June 28, 2013 at 2:58 pm

Good point. I had a line about Oleg Tinkov’s roubles that was meant to go in there, I’ll add it.

LM June 28, 2013 at 5:50 pm

Team Sky may have lost a few secrets, but the real secrets are the ones being carefully guarded by Team Monaco, the team within the team.

Oscar July 1, 2013 at 1:29 pm

Do you have more info on this Team Monaco? Never heard about it before.

Something that David Walsh should write about?

The Inner Ring July 1, 2013 at 1:52 pm

Sky have set up a new mini base near Nice. Several riders are moving to the region and coach Kerrison is living there too. The Monaco aspect is because Porte and Froome live in the principality.

Brian June 28, 2013 at 3:13 pm

I realize I am probably the only one (and probably foolish) but I’m expecting Andy to come good. Be nice if he uses his outsider status and maybe the little bit of freedom with it to try and blow it apart on some penultimate climbs rather than just waiting for the final 3k like everyone else.

Who is going to potentially sacrifice their second tier GC guys and send them up the road to try and breakup the Sky monotony? (Looking at you Garmin & Saxo).

Dave H June 28, 2013 at 4:55 pm

I suspect you will be alone in that opinion. Schleck has done nothing in a couple of years now so I see no reason to think he is capable of contending at the Tour this year. He has been showing some small signs of improvement so maybe he will be in the running next year again.

As for “breaking the Sky monotony”, the whole point of Sky’s pacemaking tactic is that they set a pace they know nobody can exceed for a sustained period so if Nico Roche or Dan Martin go up the road early on a mountain stage they will back themselves to reel them in steadily while doing exactly what they always intended. As Inner Ring points out above, the key to breaking the Sky train is to interfere with the rhythm they are setting by infiltrating the train.

Brian June 28, 2013 at 5:20 pm

Monotony meant more their repeated predictable results not their style of riding.

BC June 28, 2013 at 4:00 pm

Does anybody really think SKY will try and repeat last years methodology ? A bit too predictable.

Team leader Froome is a completely different animal to the big diesel that was Wiggins. The team structure is not based on four or five riders setting a relentless pace in the mountains, where Froome and Porte can clearly better able to fend for themselves.

Should make for some exciting racing. This is the Tour – the winner could come from any of ten riders.

My personal wish is not to see Valverde, Contador and Schleck on the podium, it would however be nice to see a French surprise, Pinot or Rolland.

Adam June 28, 2013 at 4:17 pm

It might be predictable, but Sky have employed it at every stage race Froome and Porte started this year.

The Inner Ring June 28, 2013 at 5:18 pm

True but it wasn’t as controlled in the Dauphiné, for example we saw Samuel Sanchez riding away for a stage win on a day when Froome really wanted Porte to win.

What I hope is that Sky enjoy it this time, they seemed so stressed last year even if Wiggin’s boiling over in press conferences was part of the fun. All teams stopped for interviews in the mixed zone of the presentation yesterday except Sky who rode past. I hope they don’t blank the media and public too much, one of the nice things with the sport is the accessibility of the riders.

DP June 29, 2013 at 5:40 am

Really? Two drug cheats, and the brother of another for the podium? I sincerely hope not.

DP June 29, 2013 at 6:14 am

Doh! Apologies BC – that’ll teach me for doing things half asleep!

Maarten June 28, 2013 at 4:01 pm

What about Cunego? He was 6th last time he rode the Tour. I think he’s a safer bet for Lampre than Niemiec.

The Inner Ring June 28, 2013 at 5:19 pm

“Cunego en difficulté” is a common refrain on race radio or French TV as soon as the race hits the mountains. But a stage win or even the mountains jersey is there. It’ll be interesting to see what form he’s in.

vimes June 28, 2013 at 4:55 pm

Cunego has prepared specifically for the tour, so it could work. The competition seems to be much tougher than in 2011, though.

My outside pick for Top 10: Kwiatkowski.

fit_boy_scrim June 28, 2013 at 10:11 pm

Spot on. Can’t believe Kwiatowski was not mentioned by Inner Ring as a possible for the overall.

The Inner Ring June 28, 2013 at 10:38 pm

Too untested in a grand tour, he’s done one Giro. I did mention him for the white jersey but top-20 will do nicely for him. If he does better, even better.

Steppings June 28, 2013 at 5:10 pm

As long as its an interesting and exciting race I am not too bothered who wins this year. Looking forward to some really good stages. Dare I say it even a kamikaze lone break. Come back Mr Durand.

Anonymous June 28, 2013 at 5:31 pm

with Saxo’s 3, Movistar’s 3, Garmin’s 3, BMC’s 2, Katusha’s 2, as well as the young French guys + a load of sleepers, there’s no way I can see Sky (or anyone else) getting control over things this year.
My podium is Moreno, Quintana/Rui Costa, Pinot…. well if it ends up like we would have seen plenty of thrills and spills anyway…

Simon June 28, 2013 at 7:20 pm

Can I have some of whatever you’re having?

AustinCX June 28, 2013 at 5:39 pm

Thanks for great the preview, icing on the cake to compliment some interesting INRNG articles and posts leading up to our Christmas morning (or month of July). Can’t freaking wait for this to start.

otherSteve June 28, 2013 at 6:43 pm

Echo, all sentiments expressed above, too strong a climbing field to have the same race as last year.
Sky does obviously have two of the best pure climbers, but they have a long way to ride with much interference headed their way.

As for Schleck, he obviously has the physical talent, yet I think he needs more time on a couch (mental)

Dan Martin as the dark horse.

dtb200 June 28, 2013 at 6:47 pm

If I were a contender (dream on), I’d still be worried about Evans, just a hunch

Tom June 28, 2013 at 7:45 pm

Looking forward to “Who Will Be the First Rider Busted for Doping in The Tour de France?”

There were plenty of whispers about DiLuca and Santambrogio, although Georges was a surprise in the Giro.

Oliver June 28, 2013 at 8:27 pm

All I have to say is that the treacherous roads of Corsica may well provide a few surprises.
From what I remember, the roads are not in great shape and quite narrow at times… And lets not forget the wild pigs that freely roam around the maquis. I Wouldn’t be surprised if a favorite or two ended the race before actually riding on the continent…. And so most, if not all, bets would be off — quite literally.
On verra.

balkou June 28, 2013 at 9:57 pm

I wish there was a bet the style of “In which stage will AC or Cadel try to ambush Froome?” I would have betted one kidney on stage 16 and the descent to Gap from the Col de Manse.

Johnnie June 28, 2013 at 11:02 pm

I’m expecting fireworks. As you hinted, the field is quite strong. There are so many “of course he’ll finish in the top 10 on GC” types that there has to be some serious racing happening. While Froome is stronger than Wiggins in certain respects, several of the top podium contenders come into this Tour with deeper squads than any GT in recent memory. I won’t be shocked if we see a Spanish alliance again with the likes of Contador, Valverde, Rodriguez, Sanchez ganging up on Sky in an effort to prevent a repeat of 2012.

While I’d call a podium spot an outside chance for them, if Garmin can manage to miraculously make it off Corsica without losing half their team in some weird crash, they will likely have a rider figuring in the final on most of the hard GC days. And in all likelihood Evans and Van Garderen will be there or thereabouts as well.

That’s a shed load of “of course he’ll go top 10″ guys before we’ve even taken a peek at any of the French squads!

garuda June 29, 2013 at 1:57 am

From where I’m sitting, there are 10 sure bets to make top 5. And 20 to make top 10. Take out the obligatory 20% crash outs, and you’re still going to be disappointed by 3. A boring race? Never.
it’s only boring if you’re best hopes don’t come true

Tour DeUtah June 29, 2013 at 2:22 am

I don’t know the home country of the mentioned betting parlours, but I would be willing to bet much of the Froome action is coming from the British side of the Chunnel.

My podium (in no particular order) Froome, Coddle, and AC.

Dark Horses: Val, Andy and JRod (The lack of time bonuses will hurt him).

Have loved your previews of the various competitions this week. Why no TEam Classification review ?

Vera June 29, 2013 at 3:00 am

“Garmin-Sharp are also promising chaos.”

Certainly hoping so.

Rod June 29, 2013 at 6:02 pm

They certainly got it… Funny watching Millar dig deep as hell trying to sprint, stick to the day job Dave.

Milessio June 29, 2013 at 11:08 pm

Well, he came fourth in the sprint today!!

& Froome got in trouble before km zero.

Don’t rule anything out this Tour & enjoy the ride.

Andrew June 29, 2013 at 10:58 pm

It’s bound to be an interesting race with so many real contenders. Let’s just hope that all of the GC riders are clean.

Paul June 30, 2013 at 4:17 am

At the current odds, I’d put my money on Mollema for a podium spot.

fjorthur June 30, 2013 at 4:18 am

What was with Carlton Kirby today? As Shane Stokes mentioned, CK had it wrong about BMC and the TTT.
Kirby also was incredibly uncivil towards Andy Schleck stating he had psychological issues and needed his brother to win. News to me, he forgot that Frank was injured at the tour in 2010 and Andy did well.
He also said that Frank pulled Andy up the mountain in the TdF in 2011. No, that was Monfort. Frank was with Evans on that stage, cruising into third. on the podium award.
OK, Carlton loves Sky, has a vendetta against the Schleck brothers. Seems to have taken up the Murdoch approach to confusing news with opinion.

TourDeUtah June 30, 2013 at 6:40 pm

Since when should facts be allowed to get in the way of opinion or a commentators rooting interest? (Dripping sarcasm with tongue in cheek)

I actually enjoy him more than any of the other drones on Eurosport. At least he shows (feigns) excitement when there is an attack.

Just be glad you are not stuck with Paul and Phil like we are on the far side of the pond. Even with an exciting finish on the final stage, those two make watching paint peel seem like better viewing. That and the fact they keep repeating the same old phrases and adulations about certain riders ad nauseum.

fjorthur July 2, 2013 at 6:40 am

Well, substitute Paul and Phil’s Lance Armstrong and US Postal chatter with that of Kirby’s Froome and Sky, and there you have it.
As he is quite acerbic towards Radio Shack, next year they are replacing their blue helmets with pith helmets as a way to deflect his comments.

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