Liège-Bastogne-Liège Preview

The curtain comes down on a thrilling classics season this Sunday. Liège-Bastogne-Liège is unlikely to see action from start to finish and if it did you couldn’t see it as it’s not live from start to finish either. But the final hour promises a lively battle with Pogačar facing a challenge from Remco Evenepoel and Paul Seixas and with this the hierarchy of world cycling is on the line in Liège. Possibly.

The Route: 259km and 4,395m of vertical gain. This year’s route is different to last year, both in the longer ride out to Bastogne and then the course back. The section to Bastogne for the first 95km is hilly and full of uncategorised climbs but on larger roads than the return.

After Bastogne the route starts taking smaller roads and tackling the often forested climbs. The final 100km are the same as recent years with the Wanne-Stockeu-Haute Levée climbs chased by the Col du Rosier before the nervous long descent through Spa and then the Maquisard and Desnié climbs in quick succession before another tricky long descent to Remouchamps.

La Redoute and the steep open climb is 1.5km at close to 10% and with long 15% sections two thirds of the way up and at the finish. Again comes the “new” right turn at the top, a small descent and then the Hotchamps drag up, 1km at 5.5% with a middle section at 7%. Then comes an exposed section and then comes the Côte des Forges a steady on a wide road.

The Côte de La Roche-aux-Faucons is listed as 1.5km at 10%, this is hard enough but after a brief descent of a few seconds it starts rising again to the village of Boncelles and this second section is 1.6km long with a gradient of 5.5% which isn’t steep but with all the climbing before, both cumulatively in the day and the sharp effort just before, it’s a difficult moment and where the winning move often forms and those beaten can’t or won’t chase. You can see this second part of the climb on the profile below. As the final climb it’s the make-or-break moment for many.

The Finish: the wooded descent into Liège and then some big boulevards in the streets of Liège before the finish on the banks of the Meuse.

The Contenders

Tadej Pogačar (UAE) has won the last three editions he’s finished. His first win was instructive, out-sprinting for others in Liège as it’s a weapon he can use again while the other two wins were solo triumphs. The synthesis is he can aim to go solo on the climb of La Redoute but if anyone can stay with him then he’s got the Roche aux Faucons climb to try again and if not then still has a sprint to rely on. His team will setting a relentless pace from early on, sapping everyone else. The track record, the versatility and the team all make him the prime pick.

Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) is a double winner here but each time in the absence of Pogačar so if the Slovenian is here for the finish, how to win? He might fancy his chances in a sprint against Pogačar, a gamble but possibly his best bet as while he’s won plenty from going solo, giving Pogačar the slip in the final hour sounds like a lot to ask for. Ideally he could spring free during a chaotic moment in the race but this is contingent on moving before Pogačar or the idea that the Slovenian is reeled in.

After repeatedly surpassing expectations Paul Seixas (Decathlon-CMA CGM) faces a new test. Each time we wonder if he can climb, descend or time trial, he aces it. Now can he sprint if he arrives in Liège with Pogačar? It’s framed that way as it’s hard to imagine him riding away solo. He’s good but surely not ahead of Pogačar yet but it’ll be interesting to see how he climbs and whether he can eject Evenepoel.

The “hierarchy of world cycling is at stake” to cite France’s RMC radio – coincidentally owned by the shipping tycoon that owns CMA CGM – because of the notion that were Seixas to sack Pogačar then the pecking order of the sport would be changed. Maybe that is more a question of years than hours away. One thing we saw in the Basque Country is Seixas is a Sartrean “hell is other people” mentality where he did not want to suffer the attacks of others, preferring to accelerate early and ride away on the climb of San Miguel de Aralar; we saw a bit of this in the Flèche too where he set the pace all the way up rather than wait and observe like most debutants might. So we’ll see if he deploys this on La Redoute.

Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) has returned to racing at the Tour of the Alps after a crash in Catalunya and had his “worst day on the bike” one day and won a stage the next. This seems typical of the rider who can thrill on some days but not always. He’s chasing his form and this makes him a harder pick still.

Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) rode the Brabantse Pijl, went in the breakaway and then when caught, still sprinted for fourth place. Two days later he was a few metres short on the Cauberg and still sprinted for fourth place in the Amstel. He probably had to ride the Pijl because the team needs UCI points but this effort might have cost him for the Amstel. Now he’ll be more refreshed but how to win? If he’s able to sprint for the win he’s got a chance.

Lidl-Trek have Mattias Skjelmose and Giulio Ciccone with the former in form and the second made for a course like this but so often a contender but rarely delivering a win.

Kévin Vauquelin (Ineos) crashed out of the Amstel and finished the Flèche Wallonne on a team mates’ bike. If he can avoid mishaps then he could be in the finale. Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X) has quietly had a good spring. Mauro Schmid (Jayco) has done even better and is a handy finisher.

Long shot picks have it hard. The interesting thing will be whether teams fire some of their top contenders forward early in the hope that a quality group gives UAE a hard time chasing and they can stay clear beyond La Redoute by which time if they get swept up they can still have the option on a result. But who wants to do this, especially knowing that if UAE closes them down before La Redoute then their day is done when if the try to sit tight they can salvage a top-10/20 and some UCI points. Still Quinn Simmons did this in Lombardia and got fourth. As this preview is about exploring the winners for the race this is probably the route to victory for the likes of Alex Baudin (EF) or Emiel Verstrynge (Alpecin-PremierTech) to cite three outsiders but pick among more like Cristian Scaroni (XDS-Astana), Ivan Romeo (Movistar) or Alex Aranburu (Cofidis) but again all conditional on going and staying clear in a race when UAE look likely to steamroller the field.

	Pogačar
	–
	Evenepoel, Seixas
	–
	Grégoire, Pidcock, Skjelmose, Schmid, Vauquelin

Weather: sunny and 19°C. A northerly breeze of 9-12km/h means a light tailwind for the ride out to help whip the bunch along but much of the course later is sheltered in woodland as it twists back.

TV: local coverage is on RTBF and begins at 11.40am CEST on the Tipik channel but is this live? Possinly not before switching to La Une/RTB1 at 13.35 CEST, the same time Eurosport and others will begin broadcasts and presumably when the live video goes on air.

The finish is due for 4.20pm CEST and the final hour includes La Redoute. Tune in or log on to see who is in the early break. You may find little seems to happen on the early climbs but this is often because the pace is so high few dare to escape.

Women’s Liège-Bastogne-Liège: Demi Vollering (FDJ-Suez) as the obvious pick but if Puck Pieterse (Fenix-PremierTech) can stick to her wheel and neutralise attacks then it’s advantage the latter for any sprint contest. The finish is due for 5.55pm CEST. As loyal readers will know by know, ProCyclingUK.com does a full preview.