Tour de France Stage 18 Preview

The Tour heads into the Alps for a ski station summit finish. Tadej Pogačar got beaten the last time the race came here and he remembers it but this should be for the breakaways given the bigger Alpine stages to come.

Classique du Dauphiné: the Tour de France is many things and among them a game of musical chairs. Come the third week and the music plays louder as riders and teams get desperate for a seat and this is not limited to small teams and unheralded riders. If anything they’re the ones already beaten down and struggling to find an opening. So a humdrum transition stage comes alive with plenty of big names making moves. The top-10 to come was worthy of a classic but the race was even better as everyone had to make their moves from the start and keep going.

With the Col des Près and the Alpine part of the stage done the moves kept going against a backdrop of scenic lakes and mountains on the roads of the ancient Dauphiné region.

We got an early split in the field with Pogačar, Evenepoel and Seixas in a front group with Del Toro and others on the wrong side but it came to nothing, UAE behind were willing chasers only they did not have to as more waves of riders tried to get clear.

With groups of riders spread like confetti over the course a group of six went clear with Jasper Stuyven, Ben Healy, Mads Pedersen, Felix Engelgardt, Michał Kwiatkowski and Edward Planckaert. Pedersen won the intermediate sprint and but with Planckaert playing policeman for Mathieu van der Poel and Jasper Philipsen, Stuyven attacked with 25km to go and he was looking good for the stage win but behind a larger group swept up the quintet he’d distance which in turn was caught by more and so a 50 rider group was bearing down on Stuyven and crucially with several helpers working for their sprinters.

The moves kept going, the group was hard to control and the last one saw Josh Tarling try a flyer in the streets of Voiron. He was closed down and we got a sprint with Mathieu van der Poel able to lead-out Jasper Philipsen and he pulled his team mate clear of the rest to leave Philipsen well clear of Mauro Schmid and Olav Kooij.

For Adam Yates the stage in the Isère rhymed with misère, thanks to illness. He was dropped and at times seemed to struggle to turn the pedals but made the time cut. The big question is whether he can recover.

Someone more happy was Jordan Jegat, 9th in the morning at over 22 minutes with several riders not far behind on time. He infiltrated the breakaway and thanks the time gain of almost nine minutes finished the day still 9th overall but now 14 minutes while other top-10 contenders were behind.

The points competition comes alive with Pedersen in green but now only seven points ahead of Jasper Philipsen who narrowed the gap with 50 points for the stage win; Lidl-Trek will be ruing how things turned out as Pedersen at one point looked like he was a contender to win the stage and Philipsen was out of the picture; although he was never distanced and Pedersen was sapped. There’s a contest and Pedersen is forced to go raiding for fear of losing out in Paris where the finish is a 50-pointer and the intermediate sprint on the Champs-Elysées could be crucial too.

The Route: 185km and 3,900m of climbing. There’s 20km on the flat until the race first goes up the road up to Lans via Engins, it’s not the most scenic road into the Vercors and 11.4km at 5.4% sounds gentle for a first category climb, it is especially as it’s an even climb up, but it’s a big prize for the mountains competition, a carrot to move early.

Once out of the Vercors and past the town of Vif there’s barely a flat road as the race heads for the Champsaur area of the Alps and then onto Orcières.

The Finish: a ski station summit finish that was long heralded thanks to the Tour stage in 1971 where Luis Ocaña got the better of Eddy Merckx for once, and by eight minutes. However the race came back in 2020 and a headwind saw the lead contenders huddle between the hairpins and it turned out that the history books and magazine articles supplied more thrill than the day’s sport. It’s still a summit finish but a gradual and even one, all on a wide road.

The Contenders: Tadej Pogačar (UAE) came here in 2020 and was beaten in the finish by his senior Primož Roglič, something he evoked on TV after Stage 17 so he may wish to correct the record but at the same time in his interview he said the focus is on Alpe d’Huez. Still he gets a chainring because if the breakaway can’t get clear, then why not gobble up another stage?

Otherwise the breakaway has a great chance, the GC contenders and their teams will want to save energy ahead of the two stages to Alpe d’Huez. The summit finish means the stage is almost reserved for a climber, or someone capable of a 20 minute effort uphill.

Richard Carapaz (EF) will get tipped for the next three stages and even if he wins here he’ll be a pick again and he’s after the mountains competition too. Ditto Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal-Quickstep). Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X) and Einer Rubio (Movistar) were on the move in the Vosges and should feature again but don’t have the same finishing kick to deliver a win.

Two new names for the breakaway are Sep Kuss and Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-LAB) now they don’t have a leader to work for. Thymen Arensman (Netcompany-Ineos) is better suited to the bigger mountains to come but has been trying already, if he can make the winning move his challenge is find a way to win from it.

Finally Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) keeps making the breakaway and if this poses a problem for both the GC contenders and the breakaway he’s likely to keep trying.

Carapaz
VP-P, Kuss, Arensman, Pidcock
Pogačar, Jorgenson, THJ, Tejada, Healy, Rubio

Weather: 27°C and sunny. A light 10km/h NW breeze means a tailwind for much of the stage.

TV: KM0 is at 12.50 and the finish is forecast for 5.15pm CEST.

43 thoughts on “Tour de France Stage 18 Preview”

  1. What a stage!
    At some point we had a breakaway with some 20 riders that was “cleared” to go. Among them Simmons and MvdP. Mads chose to make the herculean effort to close that down, bridge across and put on a mad show for hours. At some point it looked like that decision would net him the intermediate points, the finish points and even the stage who knows. But in hindsight it was probably a poor decision. If that 20-man breakaway had gone the net points would have been favorable for Mads, since Alpecin for sure would not have closed it (MvdP ahead as a favorite for stage win). Also not closing would do Lidl some favours in keeping Quinn Simmons happier, being given the chance to ride for himself for once. And Mads would have had an easier stage. Of course, hindsight is 20/20 but it’s finding and reading these moments that often tips the scales. Decision making can be as important as legs in some stages.

    • Excellent summary. Could have been a perfect example of losing the battle to win the war, but perhaps ego got in the way of clear decision making. One thing is certain, today was perfect for adding spice to the green jersey competition.

      • Funny. I just saw a rider who above all wants to win races.

        It could simply be that it is not in Mads P:s nature to race defensively? And that his DS has understood that it’s better to have a happy Mads P in his team than to have an unhappy Mads P who is not allowed to actively take risks?

        • One could argue that there are other riders who deserve a chance to be happy as well, but Trek has always shown that they’ll back him 100%, and it’s tough to disagree with that approach considering the results. Looks like it might be a moot point anyway.

  2. Guys fighting at the front for Green Jersey points and Yates struggling at the back to keep going and in between riders chasing, then not chasing, then chasing again. Chaos!

    It’s getting near the time for the fat lady to sing. How will Remco do, and Seixas is just 20 seconds of the podium. Ayuso seems to be struggling whilst his teammate Skjelmose seems to be getting better.

      • I guess I only noted it because, as a British viewer who first saw the TdF in 2014, I always keep a look out for what Ineos are doing (or not managing to do, in this Tour).

  4. Richard Carapaz (EF) has been mentioned a # of times. 18 may be the 1.

    & Sep Kuss is free & actually I think He is the 1.

    I’d be happy if either 1 wins.

  6. It would appear that there is only one place left open in the Top Ten. The current holder of the 10th position, Yannis…pardon…Yannis Voisard is 10 minutes behind the 9th rider, Jordan Jegat.

    Van Wilder, Carapaz and Piganzoli are lurking just minutes behind (but after the three it’s 10 minutes to Bernal), and minutes in one direction or the other come easily in the Alps.

    This is the first Tour (and the second GT) in the career of Voisard, who rides for Tudor and who will be celebrating his 28th birthday on Sunday in Paris. Joyeux anniversaire!

  7. How important might it become that Jasper Philipsen got reinstated and that Mads Pedersen was not punished for what many thought was a sprint that was not straight? Is the Dane too shattered to go for intermediate sprints deep into mountain stages that the Belgian has little chance of making or will it come down to Paris?

    • “Deep into mountain stages” is an exaggeration of sort as this TDF made a point of placing all its intermediate sprints (or so) well before most daily climbing has to be tackled. Apparently not a great idea on paper, reducing variables and competing riders’ types, but it worked for them as we now have an actual competition, whereas with more complicated intermediate sprints Pedersen would have dominated without much of any close rival (but, who knows, everything would have been different).

      It’s really been much more about “am I entering the break or will we chase tight the break to have a sprint?” rather than climbing skills or fondo. And, as always with breaks, besides tactics a strong random factor is at play. IMHO Philipsen, for now, hasn’t really “deserved” to be up there in the maglia verde fight (inverted commas as “deserving” makes little sense, here are the rules and these are the points you get).

      I guess that for Pedersen it will be about watching how the stages actually turn out to be ridden and decide on the spot. For example, how many climbers try the break up Glandon and how fast. I’m afraid that at this point of the race, it’s going to be a tough call for him, no matter the level of exhaustion, as many will try to force their luck away from the peloton, and if the break will be shut it will happen at a high climbing pace. He can hope for some truce on the descent, if anything.

      • Agree fully with this. The dynamics over the final stages should be fascinating: with so many teams yet to win a stage, I don’t see Pedersen getting big points (if any) at any of the intermediate sprints before Paris, as I expect a break of climbers to get away and prevent even Simmons and Vacek from pulling things back together for Mads.

        If the gap remains at 7 points before the final stage, things there will also be very interesting: presumably Alpecin could keep things together for Philipsen to get full points at that intermediate sprint, but who else (other than Pedersen) would really contest this? So if they go 1-2, that’s only 5 points clawed back for Jasper. You’d then assume that Montmartre would tip the balance back in Pedersen’s favour, if not for the win, then at least to score more than Philipsen at the line. But perhaps Mads will be too tired from his many efforts throughout the Tour and this will put him out of contention?

        If I were the Lidl-Trek DS I would advise Pedersen to rest as much as possible over the coming days to save everything for Paris. He may give up 5 points to Philipsen at the intermediate sprint but I think could distance him on Montmartre and then secure the jersey at the finish.

        Easy to write, and it almost certainly won’t play out like this! Looking forward to it…

        • “presumably Alpecin could keep things together for Philipsen to get full points at that intermediate sprint, but who else (other than Pedersen) would really contest this? So if they go 1-2, that’s only 5 points clawed back for Jasper.”

          Alpecin can try to place MvdP in-between Jasper and Mads for instance.

      • Gabriele, I was simply looking at today’s stage plan and seeing the intermediate sprint is three quarters of the way through the stage. I then wondered if Pedersen might go in a break to gain points when it seems highly unlikely Philipsen could do the same. Would it be worth the effort? Only if it worked I guess and provided it didn’t cook him for further days.

    • Oh, it was just an attempt to be funny (and to express the idea that the rider in question is not a particularly well-known name and was in fact hitherto unknown to yours truly) by someone who doesn’t actually speak a word of French.

      In other words, the same old joke as saying “Yannis Who?”.

      PS I did look him up and it appears that he won a stage in this year’s AlUla Tour (but one might argue that the usual suspects and the well-known names weren’t there).

      • He’s an interesting, thoughtful rider who turned pro relatively late because he wanted to finish his studies. He’s often happy to talk about the environment he rides in, does nature photography in his spare time and one of those riders who prefers to travel by train to races where possible. In an interview before the Tour de Romandie this year he said he goes training sometimes to places where he hopes to spot a lynx, the hard to see wild cat.

        He’s a project for Tudor to improve and they’ve given him a long contract but we’ll see where he goes.

      • He looked promising in his juvenile years, often fighting uphill (rarely succeding) in important races, as a “national Swiss athlete” against more supported and then highly evaluated athletes like Ayuso, Staune-Mittet, the Johannessen duo, ParetPeintre (V), Gloag, Leemreize, Champion, Leo Hayter, Fisher Black, Frigo,Berwick… . He even won a big one, can’t remember if Isere or Isard. Something in him wasn’t liked by the big team, tough… who knows what? 😛

        As a pro, his best shows for me didn’t come with victories but rather when he showed he could be in the mix with some in-form big names, on big climb albeit in smaller Italian races, like Monte Serra or Prati di Tivo, where he was close to UAE-powered (then *really* powered) Del Toro, Sivakov or A. Yates.
        This season rather than Al-Ula I’d single out his performance at Romandie in the stage where Lipo stayed with Pogi or at Algarve on Foia, a climb which suits him.
        A talented climber, not awful TTing, even, but with two weak points which prevented a greater jump up: consistency along 3 weeks and top-power attacks.
        I guess that this year’s general “survival mode” suits him, but he always looked a potentially very useful support rider rather than a scorer.

  9. Pidcock is suspiciously big price on leading betting exchange in UK. 65 compared to prices around 20 for the other two chain-ring picks. I wonder if he has mentioned to someone, somewhere that he is targeting another day…

    • Great spot.

      I’ve long wondered about cycling gambling having heard how suspicious trends in tennis are.
      Would be fascinated by a deep dive from some intrepid reporter one day.

  10. Are UAE falling apart due to sickness? McNulty sick and dropped, Wellens struggling, Yates big struggle yesterday. Will that hurt Pog or Del Toro?

    • It won’t hurt Pog, but I could see it hurting Del Toro if Seixas is strong enough to force Pog to decide whether he wants to be a domestique or not.

      • Well well, watching Adam yesterday or Wellens today (plus the couple of stages before and after), not to speak of McNulty, I think that it could hurt even Pogi… GO REMCO GO ! ! !
        😀

        • What’s up gab, got money on Remco? 🙂 It would be absolutely insane if all three on last year’s podium weren’t able to finish the race.

          • Just thinking how would I enjoy the unrest in case Remco won…

            Of course in a sense I’d prefer Pogi as the deserving winner, one for history, maybe he’ll skip more easily one TDF in next years if he wins more etc.

            But the troll in me would be just delighted to read people complaining about how lucky was Remco and so on.

            Let me add that I seriously think that if Pogi is out, Remco can pretty much crack on st. 19 or 20, but I wouldn’t be entertained as much by Del Toro or Seixas winning, although I appreciate both.

  11. Is McNulty ill as well as Yates or is it the after effects of getting hit by a car on stage 16? I can’t imagine many people would be feeling great 2 days after something like that happening.

      • Perhaps it’s ended up being a combination of both, given McNulty’s now abandoned while it sounds as if the “only” ill Yates is still struggling on.

        • Wellens struggling big time now, just a couple of minutes within the time limit and some 10 minutes (!) behind the second-to-last athlete, well dropped by the very last “safety net” gruppetto.

          Adam “only” lost half an hour today.

          Looks like a belly virus.

          • Yates finished ahead of Vermeersch and Wellens made the time cut by 2 minutes. Not sure how much good any of them would be in an emergency though.

          • Of course Pog has demonstrated in the past he can win with or without a team. Presumably UAE have and have had him in isolation in some mountain hut deep in the woods, his meals delivered by robot.

Comments are closed.