Eight teams have a stage win, 14 don’t and this should make for a lively start as this is the last stage open to half the peloton.
Contre la montre: the stage win for Remco Evenepoel who blitzed the course, only Tadej Pogačar was within a minute of him and he seemed untouchable from the first time check that he was against the clock rather than his rivals, a quest to find the biggest winning margin.
Yes this is his speciality but the margin of victory was big. With Switzerland on the horizon with its watchmakers he looked as precise as some of the timepieces made nearby. His confidence is growing and we’ll see where he takes this in the mountains, moments of being dropped at Le Lioran and on the Col du Haag feel distant but they occurred after multiple, sustained climbs and there’s plenty of that to come.
Any cheer for Red Bull was muted by Florian Lipowitz crashing, washing out on a bend in the streets of Thonon and sliding into the kerb first, then some padded barriers. He is out of the Tour now with a broken collarbone. That’s two GC contenders out in two days of racing.
Mattias Skjelmose was the surprise of the day. He’s always been handy a hilly time trial but he beat expectations, including his own but more so as his team mate Juan Ayuso was 15th and this puts the Dane within a minute on GC now of his colleague but he says the plan is still to ride for Ayuso.
Paul Seixas was fourth, easy to bank as unsurprising but astonishing for a teenager. He pipped Isaac Del Toro by five seconds whose strong ride reinforces his stage racing credentials, a potential weakness overcome. The battle ahead for the third podium spot and the white jersey should be something to watch.
The Route: 175km and 2,200m of vertical gain. A scenic start after KM0 to past the Bourget lake and then the road climbs to the Massif des Bauges, part of the Alps. It looks the part with jagged peaks below which dairy cows sport clanging bells, only just no steep Alpine passes here, this is a gentle and more approach into the mountains, climbing up alongside a white river to get into the mountains. The descent is steeper and trickier, via a small rise, and takes the race back to the start in Chambéry.
The rest of the course is on rolling roads. The Col de Couz is a mountain pass inside a valley but a gentle one. Approaching Voiron there’s a final climb of 1.6km at 4% on a wide road.
The Finish: big boulevards in town and in the final kilometre there’s a 90° right bend, 90° to the left and then a 90° to the right. It’s the same as the 2019 Dauphiné where Wout van Aert took his first World Tour level road race win.
The Contenders: a big day for the breakaway. If this was the first week it could be for the sprinters but desperation means too many riders and teams will fight to get something from this Tour. The Tour is so important this kind of attitude ought to be the default from Day 1 but it’s human nature to start with plans and then if these fail try anything. Also a lot of riders are tired which makes things harder to control, plus with Tim Merlier out of the race, one of the two prime teams that chased won’t do so either.
If Wout van Aert has won in Voiron before, so can Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-PremierTech). Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) is another obvious pick, able to make moves at the start and then at the finish, while also able to win from any kind of sprint and he is also boosted by a very strong team that can shape the race, Quinn Simmons and Mathias Vacek are candidates too but can set up their leader for the win.
When Mauro Schmid (Jayco) won the stage he brought down the average number of pro wins for a stage winner as he’d “only” won 13 races before compared to 72 wins but the quality came from having Luke Plapp, Ben O’Connor and Michael Matthews assist him. He can do the same again and Matthews is a contender too.
Visma-LAB are stage hunting now and Victor Campenaerts has won Tour stages in the third week.
Breakaway specialists Kasper Asgreen (EF) and Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X) should be in the mix but making the move and winning from it is a big ask.
Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) seems ideal for the stage but has been trying to recover after suffering on the early stages so a harder pick. Likewise Dorian Godon (Netcompany-Ineos) was suited to this on paper but he has been struggling from injuries after being caught up in the crash among sprinters in Chalon-sur-Saône which he probably shouldn’t have been contesting and if he’s on the mend he’s a harder pick now but team mate Filippo Ganna can try.
A sprint can still happen, in part because so many teams could ride each other down and any gruppetto forming early has a chance to get back. So Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-PremierTech), Biniam Girmay (NSN) and Olav Kooij (Decathlon-CMA CGM) have a chance with Philipsen in the best place given Merlier is out.
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Van der Poel, Pedersen |
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Simmons, Philipsen |
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Ganna, Campenaerts, Asgreen, Kanter, Matthews |
Weather: sunny and 29°C. A 10km/h breeze from the north could gust to 35km/h.
TV: KM0 is at 1.35pm and the finish is forecast for 5.20pm CEST. The start should frantic.
Great ride today from Remco. Lipowitz’s crash is so unfortunate (I was wary of this part of the course ever since seeing the route: lots of technical turns for a TT bike to negotiate). It would’ve been interesting to see how Lipowtiz would’ve fared against the other GC guys, and if he’d have supported or competed against Remco in the high mountains.
No huge change for prospects of the GC win but the battle for the podium remains as interesting as before…
So perhaps a question for the autumn but how many km of flat TT for Remco to really challenge Pog and Jonas for yellow next year?
Remco the new Indurain, huh? About three ITTs of 50kms each should do it.
The tour hasn’t finished yet. I’m predicting a slip (and potentially a catastrophic fall) from the podium positions. I may be wrong but Remco past performances suggest an implosion over a triumph.
About three times as many as ASO would ever put in the race.
If ASO wanted to open up the race then surely they’d reduce the importance of climbing rather than increase the distance and number of ITTs. I can’t see they’d do anything for Evenepoel’s chances, rather the Tour parcours will evolve as Seixas’ strengths evolve…
It’s not really worth discussing as the answer is many, many more than are ever going to be included.
The modern pedestrian safety/traffic calming designs love tall, square curbs and all sorts of ‘road furniture’ to disrupt flow, and this is very dangerous for cyclists especially a peloton.
Excited to see if remco has a peaky third week! Could be racing yet, I am sure pogi will try to crack him to help his teammate if he can.
Campanaert’s daily vlogs are great fun, i like him a lot and so rooting for him to bag a stage.
Actually, in The Netherlands, square curbs bare more and more replaced by 45 degree angled ones, for cyclists’ safety. That’s mostly for cyclists who make a steering error and hit the curb with their front wheel, it saves them from falling in that case.
It would not have helped Lipowitz, who slid out at high speed in a corner with no particular obstacles. He does seem to hit the curb with his right shoulder as he’s sliding, I don’t know if the collarbone was still intact at that moment.
I’ve noticed that in NL too, I wonder if race organisers could install temporary plastic “kerb shoulders” with a 45⁰ angle at the most dangerous corners, eg if a padded barrier is deemed necessary then add plastic shoulders as well. Might at least reduce the severity of injuries especially to head and neck.
is that true outside the race? i think on balance the measures make the road safer for pedestrians and cyclists in the normal world and spending tax payer money on a private race that delivers big profits to the company that owns it is a bad look. ASO have the money to do things for the wider cycling cause but choose not to, the host pays and hopes the trickle down economics work out for them. Pog’s post race interview suggested one way it could be resolved, shut the road for longer to give everyone a chance to better recon or better still (given the rest day before) extend the festivities by having a recon run the day before or some other calendar time, similar to F1 track sessions for testing.
I agree, the road furniture slows down cars, which makes it safer for daily transport/commuter cyclists who typically travel at 15-20 km/h. The needs of a peleton are similar to that of a touring car, very different from everyday bike traffic.
On a certain podcast I shall not name the high profile presenters pointed out that in the past municipalities would often REMOVE road furniture in order to facilitate the race. But that seems not to happen so much anymore. Ditto the fresh tarmac that often used to appear in time for race day.
It happens a lot. For example yesterday’s preview pointed out some big, rough cobbles in the finish which were there in June but they’d gone in time for the stage. Much of the route gets fresh tarmac, again for yesterday’s stage the whole descent down the Drance gorge was redone.
I wouldn’t describe the podcasters concerned as the brightest bulbs in the room. They are opinionated over informed.
I was thinking that Evenopoel would have a 1% advantage over Pogacar in the TT and it turned out to be 1.4%. Could be that the desire not to have a crash played into things a little.
Pogačar said he went all out for the win. But looking at their comparative performances Evenepoel really extended his advantage on the descent and the final part in town. Was he faster here because he was more aero, or cornering better? That’s harder to work out.
I’ve never particularly been a fan of Evenepoel as a person or personality, but credit is due: the past two days are something few riders can dream of, no? I was “watching” the race on procyclingstats trapped on the tarmac in a very hot plane and it was pretty exciting like that.
I think what he does in the coming 5 days will be very interesting to watch. My assumption is that he crumbles in the big mountains, but who knows?
If one year of Red Bull’s mythical distilled bull gonads (I don’t mean to imply doping) has improved him this much, what will another year bring? As justnotthatgood said, maybe a question for the fall…or Sunday evening.
Maxim van Gils is a contender for this stage.
Since oldDAVE has informed me that the anti-doping stuff is all a storm in a teacup I suppose I’d better move on to something else. Let’s make it Remco and the podium places.
Let’s be clear, on the Plateau de Solaison Remco was climbing at Del Toro’s pace. He wasn’t climbing at a pace Tadej could have been climbing at if he wasn’t suddenly on nursing duties. As others have said, the sad loss of Jonas means that climb was done in a completely different way as a result of his crash. Remco probably got lucky (which doesn’t take away from what he did) that the scenario played out as it did because it was probably the only one in which he won. A fairly easy ITT win yesterday makes this a good portion of the race for him and a successful one.
But let’s not get carried away. He hasn’t suddenly turned into 1998 Marco Pantani uphill. I reckon many people reading this would not be surprised to see him drop on one of the two big mountain days still to come. Both are mountain top finishes meaning no descents and flats to the finish line on which he can come back. In other words, I don’t think he has second place locked up yet. The key riders left in this race are actually then Del Toro and Seixas. They are going to have to outclimb Remco. If Tadej is going to be Del Toro’s nurse for the rest of the race now (for his podium and also in aid of the team classification) then that means more chance for others to win. That will include both Remco and Seixas because if Del Toro gets into trouble is Tadej going to ride away in search of more stage honours or assist his team mate? Who will finish 2,3 and 4 is thus really interesting – and perhaps including in the final stage in Paris if it has come down to single seconds. (Recall that Remco won both races at the Paris Olympics so its a place that has good feels for him.)
(All this means the breakaway people are probably going to be far less marshalled from now on so all those teams without a stage need to get to work. Bring on the bun fight.)
I think on Solaison Remco was the second best climber and could have dropped Del Toro but didn’t because it would have costed him the stage. I also think that if Del Toro really cracks with Evenepoel or Seixas still going strong, Pogi will leave it to Yates or so to pick him up and solo off. As long as he can tow his teammate up without losing serious time he will, but he’s not going full domestique mode, that’s my prediction.
I reckon that on Solaison RE won therefore the best on that stage.
That is not how GT pro cycling works in my experience, strategies may lead to riders who are not the best winning stages. I am convinced Pogi would have won that stage if that had been his sole objective for the day.
Yes, probably we would have single riders crossing finish. At least 1 and 2, while del Toro could have been caught by the chasing group as he looked weeker than Evenepoel. Both radio messages and body lanuguage leaves no doubt who was the best. Number of stage wins or margin in GC is definitely not the only goal for a leading team.
@AK And I think you’ve summed it up well. Pog will do some domestique work but when it comes to the crunch (ie it’s clear del Toro is cooked), he will sail away for the win and let Yates do the support work.
Yates seems in poor form, so Pogacar is willing to play the super-domestique role.
Therefore Seixas probably needs to pull Pogacar away from Del Toro, if he wants to get his podium place. Seixas probably remains the only one willing to attack, the thing is… Is he able to attack, at his young age?
@Fra. Siexas can’t climb with Pog though in the high mountains. And Yates has probably been in energy-saving mode for week 3.
Yates confirmed ill by the team car in the coverage of today’s stage. As I write its in the balance if he even finishes the stage.
Even at full strength Yates hasn’t seemed up to it. Del Toro is going to have to stay with Seixas; if Seixas rides away Pog will not just go into domestique mode for the rest of the race.
Yes, Remco was holding Del Toro’s climbing pace and then outsprinted him at the finish. If he carries on doing that, he has a lock on 2nd place.
“…two big mountain days still to come. Both are mountain top finishes meaning no descents and flats to the finish line on which he can come back.”
Only one (19) of the two upcoming big mountain stages (19/20) finish without a flat/descent before the line.
There are gaps between the mountains on stage 20. But it still finishes at the top of one. Thats my point if it wasn’t clear. My point of comparison was the Tourmalet stage.
That’s the response of someone who’s never ridden from corner 3 to the top of the Alpe before 😛
Pogi was also sliding a bit in that very corner where Lipo went down.
Let’s not forget that tour where Vincenzo Nibali won, to a large part by staying upright on his bike when all the big contenders went down. Crossing my fingers.
It was two different things. Lippowitz lost his front wheel and that was that. Pogacar went a bit wide and skidded his back wheel … he said the corner was a bit unsighted because of vehicles ahead of him on the course.
So happy for Remco yesterday, really hope it leads to further strong performances in the final week, will be great if the coming days hint at a upturn in his GC performances for the third act of his career – I will be one of many eating humble pie.
Pogacar and Evenepoel look solid for the first two places in Paris leaving two close and interesting battles within the top ten.
Del Toro has 20 seconds over Seixas for the bronze medal position
Martinez has an even more meagre 8 seconds over Pidcock for seventh
In those duels one French win is likely (Martinez) and another possible (Seixas)
@DJW I wouldn’t be so sure about Remco (and I’m a fan) just yet. Stages in the high mountains with multiple climbs are his weakness. I suspect there will be big time differences too on the two Alpe d’Huez stages.
+1. I’m fascinated to see how Remco fares over the coming big mountain stages. Will his revised training approach in the build up to the TdF see him overcome his previous weaknesses on days such as these? If so, it bodes well for his future grand tour prospects (perhaps he can nab a Giro, if not beat Pogi in the TdF)
With the right parcours and without Pog and Vinny, it’s possible for Remco to win a Giro (although I’d like to see how he does this last week before confirming) but it will have to be soon – lots of riders are queuing up to overtake him.
I’m wondering too. When Remco has cracked in the past he lost massive amounts of time. I don’t expect him to do that this time, but there will be a time when he gets isolated and will have to fight to keep his pace and not blow up. Losing Lipo is not a small thing either. If he is able to hold on to second, it will be a huge step forward in his gc project.
MVDP is out of the tour with pneumonia, thus not a contender.
You are reading news from July 22nd 2025, I reckon.
Yes, unless it’s happened again ;-). Van der Poel has picked today’s stage and Sunday’s Montmartre circuit as reasons to race on.
@AB Not on my news feeds.
You mentioned him but no stars for Mauro Schmit. Has he been scrubbed?
I would have had him on the second rung he has a pretty good sprint and can climb a little. although perhaps he has been in to many breaks.
He came in 2nd, so you weren’t that far off 🙂
Arensman is not Delgado then. Marginal gains eh?
If Geraint Thomas was a football manager the fans would be singing “you’re getting sacked in the morning.” Ineos has been such a mess this Tour.