Eight teams have a stage win, 14 don’t and this should make for a lively start as this is the last stage open to half the peloton.
Contre la montre: the stage win for Remco Evenepoel who blitzed the course, only Tadej Pogačar was within a minute of him and he seemed untouchable from the first time check that he was against the clock rather than his rivals, a quest to find the biggest winning margin.
Yes this is his speciality but the margin of victory was big. With Switzerland on the horizon with its watchmakers he looked as precise as some of the timepieces made nearby. His confidence is growing and we’ll see where he takes this in the mountains, moments of being dropped at Le Lioran and on the Col du Haag feel distant but they occurred after multiple, sustained climbs and there’s plenty of that to come.
Any cheer for Red Bull was muted by Florian Lipowitz crashing, washing out on a bend in the streets of Thonon and sliding into the kerb first, then some padded barriers. He is out of the Tour now with a broken collarbone. That’s two GC contenders out in two days of racing.
Mattias Skjelmose was the surprise of the day. He’s always been handy a hilly time trial but he beat expectations, including his own but more so as his team mate Juan Ayuso was 15th and this puts the Dane within a minute on GC now of his colleague but he says the plan is still to ride for Ayuso.
Paul Seixas was fourth, easy to bank as unsurprising but astonishing for a teenager. He pipped Isaac Del Toro by five seconds whose strong ride reinforces his stage racing credentials, a potential weakness overcome. The battle ahead for the third podium spot and the white jersey should be something to watch.
The Route: 175km and 2,200m of vertical gain. A scenic start after KM0 to past the Bourget lake and then the road climbs to the Massif des Bauges, part of the Alps. It looks the part with jagged peaks below which dairy cows sport clanging bells, only just no steep Alpine passes here, this is a gentle and more approach into the mountains, climbing up alongside a white river to get into the mountains. The descent is steeper and trickier, via a small rise, and takes the race back to the start in Chambéry.
The rest of the course is on rolling roads. The Col de Couz is a mountain pass inside a valley but a gentle one. Approaching Voiron there’s a final climb of 1.6km at 4% on a wide road.
The Finish: big boulevards in town and in the final kilometre there’s a 90° right bend, 90° to the left and then a 90° to the right. It’s the same as the 2019 Dauphiné where Wout van Aert took his first World Tour level road race win.
The Contenders: a big day for the breakaway. If this was the first week it could be for the sprinters but desperation means too many riders and teams will fight to get something from this Tour. The Tour is so important this kind of attitude ought to be the default from Day 1 but it’s human nature to start with plans and then if these fail try anything. Also a lot of riders are tired which makes things harder to control, plus with Tim Merlier out of the race, one of the two prime teams that chased won’t do so either.
If Wout van Aert has won in Voiron before, so can Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-PremierTech). Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) is another obvious pick, able to make moves at the start and then at the finish, while also able to win from any kind of sprint and he is also boosted by a very strong team that can shape the race, Quinn Simmons and Mathias Vacek are candidates too but can set up their leader for the win.
When Mauro Schmid (Jayco) won the stage he brought down the average number of pro wins for a stage winner as he’d “only” won 13 races before compared to 72 wins but the quality came from having Luke Plapp, Ben O’Connor and Michael Matthews assist him. He can do the same again and Matthews is a contender too.
Visma-LAB are stage hunting now and Victor Campenaerts has won Tour stages in the third week.
Breakaway specialists Kasper Asgreen (EF) and Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X) should be in the mix but making the move and winning from it is a big ask.
Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) seems ideal for the stage but has been trying to recover after suffering on the early stages so a harder pick. Likewise Dorian Godon (Netcompany-Ineos) was suited to this on paper but he has been struggling from injuries after being caught up in the crash among sprinters in Chalon-sur-Saône which he probably shouldn’t have been contesting and if he’s on the mend he’s a harder pick now but team mate Filippo Ganna can try.
A sprint can still happen, in part because so many teams could ride each other down and any gruppetto forming early has a chance to get back. So Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-PremierTech), Biniam Girmay (NSN) and Olav Kooij (Decathlon-CMA CGM) have a chance with Philipsen in the best place given Merlier is out.
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Van der Poel, Pedersen |
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Simmons, Philipsen |
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Ganna, Campenaerts, Asgreen, Kanter, Matthews |
Weather: sunny and 29°C. A 10km/h breeze from the north could gust to 35km/h.
TV: KM0 is at 1.35pm and the finish is forecast for 5.20pm CEST. The start should frantic.
Great ride today from Remco. Lipowitz’s crash is so unfortunate (I was wary of this part of the course ever since seeing the route: lots of technical turns for a TT bike to negotiate). It would’ve been interesting to see how Lipowtiz would’ve fared against the other GC guys, and if he’d have supported or competed against Remco in the high mountains.
No huge change for prospects of the GC win but the battle for the podium remains as interesting as before…