A sprint stage but the wind could gust.
Baston day: Tadej Pogačar had decided to win the stage and later said he’d targetted the win for some time, this was no breakfast decision. It wasn’t visible at first and while Lidl-Trek raced for the intermediate sprint they split the field with Pogačar caught out and even closing the gap in person. It’s notable how Lidl-Trek are all in for Pedersen, or at least the likes of Quinn Simmons and Mathias Vacek are parking their ambitions for now. Once Pedersen had won the sprint the breakaway attempts started again but UAE kept them on the proverbial tight leash.
Movistar’s Javier Romo survived the longest but he was caught at the foot of the Puy Mary climb by the UAE combine harvester. Richard Carapaz attacked on this climb and began to pull out a lead, taking almost minute by the top of the climb.
By now it felt like the only question left was where on the Col de Pertus would Tadej Pogačar attack? The answer was about 1,250m before the top. But a lot more was happening. It was noticeable that nobody tried to follow Pogačar, if he stands up on the pedals the rest are onlookers. But he went after the UAE team was used up including Isaac del Toro was being dropped and Davide Piganzoli was setting the pace instead, perhaps helpful for Pogačar but also to keep the UAE riders at bay.
On the approach to Le Lioran Pogačar was away but nervously looking back a lot while Jonas Vingegaard did the most work. Remco Evenepoel started to wilt, paying he said for the irregular work in the group but he never gave up, clawed his way back and then won the sprint for second place with Paul Seixas coming in third and Vingegaard paid for his chase and lost a few seconds in the final metres. Del Toro came in a minute behind Evenepoel, relinquishing the white jersey to Juan Ayuso.
Seixas said that it was a day “for the strongest”, he meant a subtle difference to the Pyrenean stage which selected for the best climbers. It was also after the rest day so add a pinch of salt to any extrapolations, for example if you think Del Toro is in trouble it might just be a bad Tuesday.
It was also day for revenge. If the stage had finished in a nearby ski resort like Superbesse or Laguiole there’s every chance the breakaway would have won. But Pogačar was smarting from his defeat in Le Lioran in 2024. We know he is out to win as many different races as possible, now we also see he finds added motivation and pathos from avenging defeats and especially schooling Vingegaard. As L’Equipe puts it, if the Tour organisers put the Col du Granon back on the route anytime soon we can guess how things will play out.
- A footnote to say Christian Prudhomme stopped en route to take part in the naming of the Pailherols village square after him. He regularly holidays there in the summer. It’s 98% anecdotal but notable that posterity is becoming a thing for him, and he doesn’t downplay talk of retirement anymore. If you want a front seat at the Tour with unlimited wine, a vacancy for the top job could be open soon.
The Route: 161.3km and 1,400m of vertical gain. The race returns to Vichy for the first time since 1952, a long absence for the second largest town in the Allier and a chance to see the city itself rather than a pot of the eponymous cosmetics brand owned by L’Oréal or black-and-white imagery of the seat of the war-time authoritarian regime that collaborated with the Nazis and increasingly the subject of culture wars in France.
There are a lot of open roads today past freshly harvested cereal fields. There’s not much else to describe. The last marked climb of the day is a straight wide road, the kind where a truck driver probably has to shift gears but that’s it.
The map matters because the defining feature could be the wind. The difficult thing is different models predict different situations.
The Finish: Nevers has its cobbled streets, cathedral and quays alongside the Loire… but the finish is on the edge of town along with few features to warn about. There’s a level-crossing at the flamme rouge but presumably the rail company knows better than to run services after 5pm and it’ll just rattle some wheels.
The Contenders: Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quickstep) has two wins and the French saying of “never two without three” comes to mind, an easy headline if he wins. But he spent most of the previous day chasing, including alone for a while so that’s a factor to think of.
Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) “doesn’t have the legs” and if you’re thinking this, it’s what Mathieu van der Poel is saying, from his post-victory interview on Sunday but added he hopes things will turn around. Yes he’s come up short but we’re talking fourth or fifth, not 45th.
Olav Kooij (Decathlon-CMA CGM) and Biniam Girmay (NSN) are the two other obvious picks.
Once again to cite more names for the win is hard as the likes of Max Kanter (XDS-Astana), Søren Wærenskjold (Uno-X) or Milan Fretin (Cofidis) have to find a way past these four, eminently possible but just not likely.
 |
Merlier |
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Girmay, Kooij, Philipsen |
 |
– |
Weather: 32°C and a strong chance of thunderstorms later on. The wind should blow from the NW meaning a headwind for much of the stage but a crosswind in moments.
Normally the wind will blow at 15-20km/h which is insufficient to split things but crucially it could gust to 40km/h or more. But pick your wind model as ECMWF, GFS and ICON differ for the gusts and even the direction with less than 24 hours to go.
Update, 10.30am: earlier forecasts of strong gusts are fading, conditions look more calm.
TV: KM0 is at 2.05pm and the finish is forecast for 5.30pm CEST. Tune for the finish but not just the last moments in case the wind does get up.
This is getting really boring.
Mads Pedersen attacking flat out from the gun and crushing the opposition for the intermediate sprint points.
Not really worth watching!
Each to their own but there was a bit more to the day than the intermediate sprint 😉
Remco’s fight back really surprised me and was great to see.
Del Toro getting dropped I didn’t expect.
Yes, Remco wants 2nd place in the worst way. His motivation will get even more fascinating next week.
Agreed, very gutty ride by Remco! He easily could have let the string snap. But I fear his ride today doesn’t bode well for how he’ll do when the race hits the higher mountain stages….
100%
Between the interview he did pre-race yesterday where he was quite cheery and personable, and this absolute monster showing at the end of the stage, getting dropped and then clawing his way back, he is winning me over.
Imagine that, the media portraying someone/something as 100% negative is actually inaccurate.
I’m sorry, sarcasm got the better of me. I don’t find it all boring, I like these early intermediate sprints,they set up the attack for the break perfectly.
But then I find the GC battle fascinating as well, so maybe I’m just a bit odd.
Sorry, this is a reply to INRNG
@Lars But de Cloche. Almost as boring as watching the “fight” for the yellow jersey.
I’m going to disagree with you.aybe yellow is out of reach but 2-7th places look like they could go down to the wire. Very evenly matched with some inter team spiciness thrown in for good measure.
I’ve followed Tadej pretty closely during his career (from the outside) and I think it is highly probable that he is clean. I think the main reason for his success is genetic predisposition for mitochondrial biogenesis. Some of the relevant genes are PGC-1a, NRF1/2, TFAM, and others. I suspect that UAE detected this early on and focused his training to take advantage of this epigenetically and legally. The arc of his performance over the years is exactly what one would expect from training that is focused on making the most of this particular genetic profile. I also expect more will be published on this, including scientific papers, after Tadej retires.
There’s no way of knowing either way, any more whether Liam Slock is honest with his tax filings or Anthon Charmig sticks to the speed limits when driving a car. So any trial of a rider via blog comments – and it’s usually the yellow jersey – whether for the prosecution or defence doesn’t tell us much for now.
I heard that Liam Slock is an inveterate tax cheat.
He’s Belgian and he probably earns well above the median annual wage so it’s to be expected
All Belgians are.
His genetic gift is “PGC-1a”???
that’s too funny to be real, but I’ll order some for my stack
PGC-1a expression varies quite a bit between individuals.
@Albert Do you think I could buy some? I’ve got some savings to use – and it may be an invest to earn proposition (although a rider in his 50s would be odd at the Tour).
‘I’ve followed Tadej pretty closely during his career (from the outside) and…. I think the main reason for his success is genetic predisposition for mitochondrial biogenesis. Some of the relevant genes are PGC-1a, NRF1/2, TFAM, and others.’
If you can see all of that from the outside you’ve got better eyesight than me!
😄
🔬
Maybe he is.
But if you look back thru history, people ALWAYS say this about dominant talents like this. They’re clean until they’re not.
But one adage has always held true: If it looks too good to be true, it is.
It’s extremely rare that physiological or mental attributes can be attributed to single or a few genes.
The only examples I can think of involve diseases created from well-identified mutations, and effective therapies have been invented for those relatively few cases.
TomH above, not “Anonymous”
Amazing rider, all-time great, seems a terrific bloke, etc, but I’m so bored of Pog’s domination now.
I really like Pogi, but this Tour is not what I had hoped for…
I read these previews every day, best out there! Thanks
Likewise.
A 19 year old got third on the stage and is in 5th position overall … why so glum?
Let’s talk about Jonas Vingegaard. What must be going through his head? Yet more thoughts of retirement (reported in the press a couple of days ago) and yet more reminders that he’d rather be with his family than having to put in hard work and weeks away only to know he cannot win the Tour? He gives me strong Tom Dumoulin vibes and you will remember that when the fire went out for him he did walk away. Vingegaard is in a difficult position – which may seem strange when he has won all three grand tours and has already earned his place in the elite of the sport. But where does he go from here? He is not a one day racer (no shame in that, neither were Contador or Froome) so he cannot turn to those races. As the last two years (post his serious crash) have shown, this version of him cannot beat the current version of Pogacar in grand tours. It seems unlikely he has yet another ceiling above his current one which rectifies that. But if you had won all three grand tours would you want to go to the Tour every year knowing second was your best outcome and you’d have to keep explaining why the other guy beat you? Would you switch to the Giro and Vuelta hoping Pog avoided them to pick up easier wins – and would your team even let you do that in a world where the Tour is levels above the other grand tours for publicity and sponsorship purposes? Despite talk of compromises with his team leadership after his retirement thoughts,Jonas strikes me as a man of principle who would walk away if things went too far in the wrong direction. Having to now seemingly battle for the rest of this Tour to hold onto even second place must have thoughts running round his head – and not positive ones either.
He seems like a very strong family man who misses his wife and kids. Good on him for that. He could retire after this tour with his head held extremely high, as Denmark’s and one of the world’s great grand tour competitors.
100% and with a career in a DS role if he wanted.
Perhaps he could follow the path of G, happily finishing off the top step, working for others, taking his family on training camps. I’m sure he’d be a lot happier.
Isn’t Vingegaard’s team still looking for additional financial backers? The talk about a possible end to Vingegaards career likely won’t help matters, especially since WvA is also already 31. The team has a promising rider in Piganzoli, but is that enough to attract new money?
Yes and still no news on this, it is getting late as there’s a soft deadline for August and a regular one in October. But yhe team is part-owned by Robert van der Wallen, a possible billionaire, who has been said top-up the team’s budget but look how many logos are on the kit now (Skil, Rabobank etc) and it suggests they’ve been spinning a lot of plates to keep things going, all while having unloaded costs (Simon Yates, Cian Uijtdebroeks), it’s not clear if Van der Wallen wants to take this on directly. Vingegaard as a viable candidate is an asset; Vingegaard as someone contemplating retirement at any point less so. But that’s his choice.
The sport is making a lot of millionaires now and so we’re likely to see more retirements à la Dumoulin as people can stop if they want, even if many will obviously be incentivised to ride on for as long as they can. The point is more some can feel able to stop when in the past it might have been daunting financially and easier to race on.
“Robert van der Wallen, a possible billionaire*”
“The sport is making a lot of millionaires”
out of billionaires?
*In the US, we call them ‘temporarily embarrassed’
Van der Wallen’s fortune is supposed to be around a billion so not certain we can call him a billionaire.
To twist an old saying, the quickest way to become a millionaire is to start as a billionaire. So Van der Wallen could be on the hook for tens of millions but the line about creating more millionaires is more about the riders.
Pierre Latour has had some issues with his descending but probably could have continued and got another contract but he’s saved and invested and so felt able to retire. It’s not just the grand tour/classics contenders/big sprints, lots of able riders can be comfortable now after a few years.
I thought “à la Dumoulin” meant something else…
But seriously, who could blame JV for wanting to get out of cycling early? Watching riders sliding all over the chalk on the downhill yesterday, it’s such a brutal career. I expect Jonas to be honorable in fulfilling his contract, but he’s already a very wealthy person and doesn’t seem to enjoy the spotlight at all. I would absolutely understand why he would be interested in moving on to a new stage of life, and unfortunately his team doesn’t really come into the equation since there’s no way for them to ensure his safety (or general happiness).
yes, you do get the impression he’ll retire early.
unless some new form of motivation arrives.
agree he’ll see out his contract etc.
it must just be hard to beat someone, view yourself as a champion and realise they had a vast leap in performance that completely supersedes your highest level.
I do still think Jonas will be able to spend the rest of his days happy in the fact he was one of very few who beat the best. Only he, MVDP, WVA and Skeljmose really hold that honour on days/races where Pog clearly wanted to win in near to his prime. Maybe Philipsen also, although as a sprint that’s a bit different, Michael Matthews at a push in Canada, but Jonas is the only one at a stage race.
I agree with your comments and the other people’s as well.
It’s not like he is a just a one good win in his life time kind of rider.
@Bubble Wrap – there are one-day races he could do well in and possibly win and he could pile up several more non-Pog GTs but he isn’t quite the pre- crash Vinny now and his powers are probably naturally slowly on the wane so that could open up other avenues in terms of being a deluxe support rider with all the GT-winning know-how that comes with it. Alternatively, he could just say ‘sod this, I’ve got more money than I’ll ever need – time to enjoy family life’.
I don’t know whether you are a wine drinker INRNG but have you thought of applying for the top job when it becomes available.
Can’t imagine therevare too many better qualified.
Oof, that would be something. I feel like our host would design some killer routes – I imagine there is a huge amount of politicking to navigate though.
He could design the most anti-Pog route he could think of … only for Pog to win the race anyway and cement GOAT status, just like Prudhomme’s attempts to make an anti-Sagan green jersey competition.
In UK commentary today they are saying that the rumours are this was meant to be a course designed to be “anti-Pog”. If so, it isn’t working.
There’s no reasonable anti-Pogačar course. You could have 21 bunch sprints etc but that is not going to happen. Given his range extends from Paris-Roubaix to the Galibier, there’s not much to do.
What this year’s route was meant to do was to keep the battle away until the third week. But the Tourmalet stage saw otherwise.
It’s notable how Pogačar seems to keen to attack if he can deny Vingegaard, eg winning in Le Lioran yesterday to rub out the loss the last time. There might be an alternative universe where Vauquelin did not puncture in the TTT, Ineos take and defend yellow early on and Pogačar doesn’t feel the same pathological compulsion to sack them like he does to take yellow from Vingegaard. (ifs, buts etc etc).
Philips may not have come 45th, but if you see how well he was delivered by VdP and how much higher Merlier’s end speed is, he might as well have been. He’s not the type of sprinter for whom 4th place is a result either.
Noted, it’s just he’s still in contention at the moment. Also Van der Poel’s lead-outs are extravagant sometimes, so fast that even Philipsen struggles to hold on even if it puts him in a winning position.
True, but since the rest still manages to hold on and then surge past, I don’t see that as an argument. Good news for Alpecin is that they do seem to have their train working well, so if Jasper finds his legs they are golden.
Dropping him off 250m because he went too hard, rather than getting him to 175m, which would have seen Jasper win, is not good lead out work.
Agree that Philipsen doesn’t seem in top form but I’d love to see, on this stage, van der Poel followed by Planckaert with Rickaert as the final lead out and see how that works out.
I just redacted Pogacar from the race. It is quite an interesting one. Jonas, Remco, Lipowitz., Seixas, Ayuso and Skjelmose are on a similar level and it should be an interesting race between them. They should, just as me, completely ignore UAE and do their own race.
Whilst I don’t disregard Pog, for great champions are also part of the narrative of any sport, I think that this is where the major interest is for all those fans who “just want to see a real competition”. Whilst it remains true that Pog is a level above everyone, the reality is that he is one incident away from not being in the race at all and so second place, a more realistic target for the riders behind him on GC, could actually become first if, god forbid, anything did happen to him. This is what should be motivating Jonas, Remco, Ayuso, Seixas, etc. You may end up just being “best of the rest”. But you never know.
Maybe it is not that recognizable on inrng, as here are many more thoughtful comments, but in general in social media (X, but also other cycling media) I’ve noticed that it maybe less about need of real competition, but about personal expectations. Because complains are about literally anything. Rider gave win to another one – it is wrong and disrespectful. He won without much visible effort – similar comments and also accusation of mind games. Team let the breakaway to gain a lot of time – disrespectful for leaders jersey. Next day they have kept escapees on a short leash – also wrong and total domination. “Fans” are not interested in sport anymore. They just need entertainment that is tailored to their needs or desires and because there are so many of them and outcome of the competition is just one, there are so many voices of dissatisfaction.
I cannot say I’m watching cycling since I was a child, but long enough to compare at least few different eras. And I must say, I feel priviliged to observe how this sport looks like in recent years. We have great rivaleries, we have cycling super heros in various disciplines, maybe best of all time, record breaking efforts, we have great TV broadcasts, literally anything we can imagine, but we are still not happy and loose interest in the race, because someone attacked one climb later than we wanted.
Just my two cents. And have a great Tour 🙂
AMEN!!
100%
Without Pog it might well have been the greatest Tour in history…
Only, it wouldn’t have. Neverending selected gruppetto watching each other and/or Vingo killing it.
It rarely was as manifest as in this TDF that the good racing behind spurs from the impact of a disruptive attitude by the actual leader.
It’s impressive to watch history being made. I said yesterday Pog is riding this tour like he is on fast forward to the exit, take as many stages as possible as many jerseys as possible and then have a year off or call time on the tour. A break might suit everyone. If your took Pog away the battle behind is fascinating, would riders ride the same way if they were more focussed on the jersey (who knows), but it would give Seixas, Remco, Olney, Del Torro, Piddock a chance and if the rumours about Vingegaard are true a reason for him to hold on for one more tour. For all his merits i found the deliberate crushing of yesterdays sage to avenge a past loss a touch petty, sure it’s what former patrons did but that was then.
Look at it from Pog’s perspective. Aside from Paris-Roubaix, which is a one off race with its own rules and particularities, he has ticked off every goal he could possibly have. (I am sure the Vuelta will be a formality when he can fit it in in that regard.) He is going to win this Tour so long as he keeps riding. So what motivates a guy like that? Settling scores. Putting right perceived wrongs. Breaking records. Etc. I was not at all surprised to learn that yesterday’s stage was marked down for attention long ago. Because its exactly the sort of thing that would motivate someone who has simply won many times before. Remember, Pog barely enters a race he does not win anymore. Just winning probably ceases to be the motive for a guy like that.
@Bubble Wrap – agree, you always want more and when winning alone no longer provides the same high it did before, then you no doubt look for other motivations to achieve that high (I don’t know for sure obviously as I have never won a bike race let alone claimed multiple wins!). And when that doesn’t work, you retire!
“Pog barely enters a race he does not win anymore”.
Barring exceptions, of course, which are, for example, Strade Bianche, Ronde, LBL, Flèche, Montreal, Tre Valli Varesine, Lombardia. Plus obviously the TDF. UAE is due to sponsors, Slovenia to sentimental reasons. He also repeated Tirreno but I’m not sure he’s doing it again. However, a good deal of exceptions for such a golden rule to be remembered, ain’t it?
But, yes, there’s something of that. The feeling is that he enjoys one day racing, whereas unless he isn’t forced the “tick the boxes” approach is applied to stage racing.
The expected outcome, but I have to say, I’ve rarely seen as much of a grimace on Pogačar’s face as yesterday. I also find it interesting that again he gained a small gap on the long climb, but then most of his gains came in the descent and the shallower climb.
I think these, with the somewhat weaker UAE team performance, are the only small points of light for the competition, especially the smaller climbers with the Alps still coming up. And with Vingegaard’s weakness, the battle for 2nd place looks open.
You’d think that because of Merlier’s superiority, other teams will try to form a large breakaway, but experience shows all the teams of the 2nd tier sprinters will go for the bunch sprint anyway. The usual explanation is that you just cannot give your highly paid sprinter, who is also one of your major point scorers, a vote of no confidence or there will be trouble in the team bus.
Wishful thinking probably in action here, but I agree with your take in the first couple of paragraphs.
(Not that I disagree with the last one, either, although a more marginal aspect of the race).
I’m not sure you can say Vinny is weak just yet – he did most of the chasing work yesterday.
Ah, of course, I wasn’t agreeing at all with *that*. Vingo’s situation is open to many possibilities, getting tired by the Giro, by the excess work he took on these days, or actually growing into form à la classic Visma. To me, the three are reasonable and I personally wrote them down in order of growing probabilities from my POV (all very similar, anyway, and all open to evolutions).