It’s this Saturday, it’ll be sunny and there’s live TV coverage from the start at 10.50 CEST to the finish at around 5.00pm. These things feel as easy to state as Pogačar is to win, he’s certainly the overwhelming pick for the race.
The Course: Como to Bergamo, 241km with almost 4,500m of vertical gain. It’s the same as 2021 and 2023. This is a quasi-Alpine course characterised by long climbs rather than sharp walls. The first climb is to the Madonna del Ghisallo chapel, with the sacrilege of climbing up from Asso rather than from Bellagio.
The climb to Roncola is the Sella di San Bernado and 9km with a middle 7km at over 8%, it’s selective. The next climb to Berbenno is more gentle, almost a big ring climb. The same for the next climb to the Passo Crocetta via Dossena, a long steady climb to sap the legs and chased by a big descent.
The Passo di Ganda is the crucial point, 9.2 km at 7.3%, maxxing at 15% and crucially the upper slopes are the steepest. This is a wilder climb than the others.
The descent via Selvino is tricky too with many hairpin bends. Then comes more than 10km on the flat in anticipation of the final climb above Bergamo.
The Finish
Bergamo Alta it’s up the narrow cobbled ramps through ancient gates and medieval streets. The profile above doesn’t show the corners nor the cobbles which make this a leg breaker and the last bend is with 700m to go.
The Contenders
Tadej Pogačar (UAE) has won the last four editions and can equal Fausto Coppi’s tally of five wins, in fact he can go better as Coppi did not collect five in a row. Several of these wins for Pogačar have been harder than we might imagine, he’s had to out-sprint someone at the end of a long season where he’s been fading. Right now he seems in untouchable form after winning the Worlds and Euros in the last two weekends with solo raids. The win feels near-inevitable, scripted even with UAE driving a hard pace before he goes solo on the Passo di Ganda.
Is it even worth doing a preview? If you’ve got here rather than just thinking “Pogačar” and saving yourself a click that might be a surprise. This blog could be clever and try to predict the second placed rider or the winning margin but those outcomes are too contingent on negative outcomes, of riders not chasing and racing for second place so prediction is even harder, and probably pointless. At least you know what time the finish is; but in this Pogačar era you want to watch the action earlier rather than the probable solo ride to the finish.
If not Pogačar then one of his team mates? Isaac Del Toro has been winning plenty and has a good chance but as we saw in the Tre Valle Varesine, if Del Toro is in contention then so are other rivals and Pogačar will have to race for the win instead. Adam Yates and Jay Vine can feature too but as ever once the Slovenian starts the team seems to get behind him and he wants this Monument to finish the season.
It’s the end of an era with Remco Evenepoel in his last outing in the Soudal-Quickstep overalls. This race has been difficult for him over the years but it’s a sign of his application that he’s confronted weaknesses and worked on them and is now probably the only rider who will plan on a direct contest with Pogačar, even if he risks being dropped on the Ganda climb but trying to hold on or come back soon after and then contesting a sprint might be his best option.
There is the “glorious uncertainty of sport” and anything can happen with a strong list of contenders. Few other races gather Ben Healy, Richard Carapaz, Mattias Skjelmose, Quinn Simmons, Oscar Onley, Tom Pidcock, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Lenny Martinez, Antonio Tiberi, Michael Storer, Julian Alaphilippe, Primož Roglič, Jai Hindley, Aleksandr Vlasov, Ben O’Connor, Christian Scaroni, Paul Seixas et al.
How many of these star names are willing to make early moves as there’s strength in numbers if teams and their leaders want to try and take on UAE but as ever challengers will the hope that others do this first, that a move with some big names in it forces UAE to over-reach so that they can make their move later but in turn UAE will count on this caution.
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Pogačar |
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Del Toro, Evenepoel |
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Pidcock, Scaroni, Healy |
Weather: hazy sunshine and 22°C.
TV: live from start at 10.40am to the finish at around 5.00pm CEST. It’s on RAI, first RAI Sport then RAI 2 from 2.00pm; and on Eurosport and other channels internationally.
It feels like 5 chainrings probably aren’t enough.
Quite interested to see who comes out on top between Del Toro and Evenepoel though.
UAE have four or five riders who would be team leaders in several of the squads on the start list and could easily have two (maybe even three) on the podium.
Pidcock is apparently riding Lombardia tomorrow and the Gravel World Champs the next day. How can he make the transfer and recover for the second race, and how can he give his all in Italy with such a Sunday awaiting? His programme doesn’t seem wise.
As I have said in the past to my friends who may have had their eye on more than one girl at a time.. he who chases both rabbits, catches neither..! Maybe it applies here too.
It’s going to be an exciting race. The palpable tension in the air to learn at just how many tens of kilometres out the winner will attack at, and by how many minutes they will win be. Electric!
In all seriousness, it is breathtaking to watch a multi-generational (centennial perhaps?) talent in their pomp. You have to admire that. Yet, it does also take away from the racing. I guess we get to feel how cycle racing fans felt in the 60s and early 70s.
The critical point here is “watch.” Watch as in “follow,” yes, but not “see.” I follow Pogacar but won’t watch him ride, at least not this time. That’s the dilemma of pro cycling. You can follow something like pole vaulting and the GOAT Duplantis, admiring a 2-minute clip of him clearing a new world record. But you can’t condense a race like Lombardia into a meaningful 2-minute clip. The dynamics that make a dominant athlete a strength for a sport like pole vaulting work the opposite way for cycling.
Seixas, at barely nineteen, has had an astonishing series of recent performances in difficult races and could be a bronze podium place candidate. All of France – at least the cycling followers – are hailing him as a future Tour winner and Hinault successor. Maybe, but that’s a lot of pressure to place on very young shoulders.
I predict Bergamo and Kigali will have the same podium, there’s so little stochasticity left in the sport at this moment.
Had to look up stochasticity. Nice!
At least when Pogacar is present. Sunday’s Paris-Tours might be a better TV watch, at least for unpredictability and despite the weaker field.
+1
Remco to win a two-up sprint. Come on! Who’s with me?
*tumbleweed*