It’s this Saturday, it’ll be sunny and there’s live TV coverage from the start at 10.50 CEST to the finish at around 5.00pm. These things feel as easy to state as Pogačar is to win, he’s certainly the overwhelming pick for the race.
The Course: Como to Bergamo, 241km with almost 4,500m of vertical gain. It’s the same as 2021 and 2023. This is a quasi-Alpine course characterised by long climbs rather than sharp walls. The first climb is to the Madonna del Ghisallo chapel, with the sacrilege of climbing up from Asso rather than from Bellagio.
The climb to Roncola is the Sella di San Bernado and 9km with a middle 7km at over 8%, it’s selective. The next climb to Berbenno is more gentle, almost a big ring climb. The same for the next climb to the Passo Crocetta via Dossena, a long steady climb to sap the legs and chased by a big descent.
The Passo di Ganda is the crucial point, 9.2 km at 7.3%, maxxing at 15% and crucially the upper slopes are the steepest. This is a wilder climb than the others.
The descent via Selvino is tricky too with many hairpin bends. Then comes more than 10km on the flat in anticipation of the final climb above Bergamo.
The Finish
Bergamo Alta it’s up the narrow cobbled ramps through ancient gates and medieval streets. The profile above doesn’t show the corners nor the cobbles which make this a leg breaker and the last bend is with 700m to go.
The Contenders
Tadej Pogačar (UAE) has won the last four editions and can equal Fausto Coppi’s tally of five wins, in fact he can go better as Coppi did not collect five in a row. Several of these wins for Pogačar have been harder than we might imagine, he’s had to out-sprint someone at the end of a long season where he’s been fading. Right now he seems in untouchable form after winning the Worlds and Euros in the last two weekends with solo raids. The win feels near-inevitable, scripted even with UAE driving a hard pace before he goes solo on the Passo di Ganda.
Is it even worth doing a preview? If you’ve got here rather than just thinking “Pogačar” and saving yourself a click that might be a surprise. This blog could be clever and try to predict the second placed rider or the winning margin but those outcomes are too contingent on negative outcomes, of riders not chasing and racing for second place so prediction is even harder, and probably pointless. At least you know what time the finish is; but in this Pogačar era you want to watch the action earlier rather than the probable solo ride to the finish.
If not Pogačar then one of his team mates? Isaac Del Toro has been winning plenty and has a good chance but as we saw in the Tre Valle Varesine, if Del Toro is in contention then so are other rivals and Pogačar will have to race for the win instead. Adam Yates and Jay Vine can feature too but as ever once the Slovenian starts the team seems to get behind him and he wants this Monument to finish the season.
It’s the end of an era with Remco Evenepoel in his last outing in the Soudal-Quickstep overalls. This race has been difficult for him over the years but it’s a sign of his application that he’s confronted weaknesses and worked on them and is now probably the only rider who will plan on a direct contest with Pogačar, even if he risks being dropped on the Ganda climb but trying to hold on or come back soon after and then contesting a sprint might be his best option.
There is the “glorious uncertainty of sport” and anything can happen with a strong list of contenders. Few other races gather Ben Healy, Richard Carapaz, Mattias Skjelmose, Quinn Simmons, Oscar Onley, Tom Pidcock, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Lenny Martinez, Antonio Tiberi, Michael Storer, Julian Alaphilippe, Primož Roglič, Jai Hindley, Aleksandr Vlasov, Ben O’Connor, Christian Scaroni, Paul Seixas et al.
How many of these star names are willing to make early moves as there’s strength in numbers if teams and their leaders want to try and take on UAE but as ever challengers will the hope that others do this first, that a move with some big names in it forces UAE to over-reach so that they can make their move later but in turn UAE will count on this caution.
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Pogačar |
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Del Toro, Evenepoel |
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Pidcock, Scaroni, Healy |
Weather: hazy sunshine and 22°C.
TV: live from start at 10.40am to the finish at around 5.00pm CEST. It’s on RAI, first RAI Sport then RAI 2 from 2.00pm; and on Eurosport and other channels internationally.
It feels like 5 chainrings probably aren’t enough.
Quite interested to see who comes out on top between Del Toro and Evenepoel though.
UAE have four or five riders who would be team leaders in several of the squads on the start list and could easily have two (maybe even three) on the podium.
Pidcock is apparently riding Lombardia tomorrow and the Gravel World Champs the next day. How can he make the transfer and recover for the second race, and how can he give his all in Italy with such a Sunday awaiting? His programme doesn’t seem wise.
As I have said in the past to my friends who may have had their eye on more than one girl at a time.. he who chases both rabbits, catches neither..! Maybe it applies here too.
It’s going to be an exciting race. The palpable tension in the air to learn at just how many tens of kilometres out the winner will attack at, and by how many minutes they will win be. Electric!
In all seriousness, it is breathtaking to watch a multi-generational (centennial perhaps?) talent in their pomp. You have to admire that. Yet, it does also take away from the racing. I guess we get to feel how cycle racing fans felt in the 60s and early 70s.
The critical point here is “watch.” Watch as in “follow,” yes, but not “see.” I follow Pogacar but won’t watch him ride, at least not this time. That’s the dilemma of pro cycling. You can follow something like pole vaulting and the GOAT Duplantis, admiring a 2-minute clip of him clearing a new world record. But you can’t condense a race like Lombardia into a meaningful 2-minute clip. The dynamics that make a dominant athlete a strength for a sport like pole vaulting work the opposite way for cycling.
Your comment made me look back at Merckx’s results in 1971 when he won MSR, LBL, TDF, Worlds and Lombardia which seems to be one of the few reference points to Pogacar’s last two seasons.
Merckx in 1971 at least had the decency to let LBL and Worlds come down to a 2up sprint for some excitement, come 76th in Flanders and lose the sprint for 2nd and 3rd at Roubaix. If not for MVdP, we’d be looking at all 6 major one-day races being won by the same rider in the same way.
The 100+/g/hour carb era combined with aerodynamic improvements seems to give the best riders a greater advantage than before because they can now sustain 85-90% of their FTP for the last couple of hours of racing which is enough to hold off/demoralize any chasing groups. The finales of one day races are essentially 30-100km time trials.
I’m worried that no amount of tactics can make up for this evolution but hold out hope that we will see MVdP, Mads and WVA working together to chase Pog down for 100km at Flanders next year and cook him in the final sprint.
This is it really, its not like you can say take Pogacar out and everything will be fine. Take him out of Milan-Sanremo, Flanders and Roubaix and they become a Van der Poel walkover. His presence is a benefit to those races. Take him out of Liege, Lombardia and any other hilly one dayer and Evenepoel wins them in exactly the same way. Its not like the Olympic road race was a nail biter, or the Liege’s that Evenepoel won. In effect his presence in these races makes no difference at all.
Cycling has fundamentally changed in the last 4-5 years, all the old rules about saving energy and licking everyone elses plate clean before you start on your own have gone out the window. Its just a battle of the strongest now, and THE strongest always wins. Cyclings biggest races have generally spent their history adding obstacles to force a selection. Now it’s almost like they have to take them out to make it a contest, and have a Paris-Roubaix all on main roads and Lombardia all on the Po plain.
Wow! You may be right. But it’s five years since I’ve even ridden my bike at all, for very serious health reasons. I guess when you’re young it seems to move faster.
Please ignore the above.
At least we are experiencing a brief moment in time when the rider in the world champion’s jersey rides like the world champion.
Among Pogačar’s feats is to get rid of the supposed “rainbow jersey curse”.
Further to the above, was that even a thing anymore?! We haven’t had a ‘dud’ or unexpected world champion for ages, look at who has won it in the last 10 years. Its generally gone to form. The last cursed one was probably Pedersen as he barely got to wear it.
What do you mean? https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider/mads-pedersen/2020
PS What I remember all too well is how Mads P. winning was a big disappointment, because he was not of the right calibre to be a World Champion or that he was a sub-standard winner or how it would have been *so* much better for the sport if such and such had won…
The parcours are also different compared to 1971. In the era of Merckx, except Roubaix, the monuments were much flatter and less selective. For example, Flanders had 4 climbs in 1969 and 6 climbs in 1972; in 2023 it had 19 climbs (and climbs concentrated later in the race). Something like this has happened in the other monuments too. This made consistently podiuming them much harder in the earlier period when Merckx was racing.
Of course, excellent comments about the effect of nutrition in the last few years, which I completely agree with.
Thanks for looking up the proper stats to my vague Merckx reference. 😉
Merckx was prolific, but he was sometimes beatable in races he was trying for. Perhaps just cause he raced so much. I havn’t added up the stats, but I get the impression Pogacar is a lot more selective in his racing calendar (part of a wider modern trend).
Mr IR could probably sketch out “How the race was won” now!
Seixas, at barely nineteen, has had an astonishing series of recent performances in difficult races and could be a bronze podium place candidate. All of France – at least the cycling followers – are hailing him as a future Tour winner and Hinault successor. Maybe, but that’s a lot of pressure to place on very young shoulders.
So far he’s dealing with the pressure quite well, he’s as keen as the media/France to improve and do his best and matter of fact about it. At the Worlds French coach Thomas Voeckler said he was as much impressed by his attitude as with his talent.
I predict Bergamo and Kigali will have the same podium, there’s so little stochasticity left in the sport at this moment.
Had to look up stochasticity. Nice!
Me too – great word!
At least when Pogacar is present. Sunday’s Paris-Tours might be a better TV watch, at least for unpredictability and despite the weaker field.
Good call DJ. I think one of the main themes of 2025 has been the idea of streamlining the cycling calendar, but my feeling is that the smaller races are actually much more interesting to watch in the era of total Pog/UAE dominance. Lombardia will be pretty and there’s a chance of interesting racing, but it seems more likely that first, second and third place will be minutes apart with *maybe* a sprint for the podium.
Someone needs to tell the UCI about this fancy ‘streamlining the calendar’ idea. This week we learned of more races, more racedays, more category upgrades scheduled for next year.
Yes, lots of talk, no action so far…
P-T has been a good race for seeing some actual bike racing [rather than a processional elimination with the back door open] and some interesting longshot winners and podiums [maybe a little like P-R in that respect] for years, even before the introduction of the gravel sectors among the vineyards.
But again, even if in extremis, we see pro cycling looking somewhat amateurish in its overall organisation and not maximising its potential as the world gravel champs are scheduled for exactly the same day thus splitting the likely lads between them. Shame.
Very good point.
Yes, a gravel world champs on the same day as a race full of gravel.
I really liked the old version of Paris-Tours with the sharp hills in the finish that set up tension between the attackers. But would it work today with sprinters that have more range and a bunch that is still full of energy rather than drained by 200km?
Maybe, maybe not. But that September race that starts in Brakel and finishes outside the brewery every year [Primus, Super8] has a not dissimilar mix in terms of tension, range of sprinters, 200km, short and sharp hills, will it be a sprint or not? And despite the new style of racing and training, new in-race nutrition strategies etc. discussed here it still works as an attacking race which regularly rewards boldness and where a defensive race strategy is a risky business.
+1
Remco to win a two-up sprint. Come on! Who’s with me?
*tumbleweed*
Sure, I reckon he’s got the beating of Ben Healy in a two-up.
A stretch I know, which is more than one can usually say for Ben Healy’s cervical vertebrae during a race, but I see that tomorrow also sees stage 1 of the Tour de Kyusho [another newish race going straight into the .1 category and not attracting a pro field to match] where Ben’s lookalike in terms of riding position, Paco ‘Neckbrace’ Mancebo, will be starting a pro race at the tender age of 49.
Roglic doesn’t even get a chainring ?
C’mon!
Under what circumstances can you see him winning?
It’d be nice if he wins but his win rate has taken a dive of late. In fact it would be great if he wins as it probably come out of a more chaotic scenario that will be fun to watch.
Two years ago, when they raced this same course, Pogacar attacked on the Ganda, but failed to gap everyone and a group got up to him over the summit, so it’s not a given that he’ll ride everyone off his wheel. That was the day he showed what a clever racer he is though, as the pace dipped for a second, and he snuck away before anyone realised what was happening and opened a gap on the descent that he held to the finish.
That said, he’s been at a higher level the past two seasons, so he’ll probably ride away to win again now.
Maybe, but one cannot overstate how bad Remco wants this one, for many reasons.
He’d been third in the Glasgow Worlds and then spent the rest of the season struggling for wins, often in the mix but beaten so can see why he struggled to get clear. This time the only question mark is his Rwanda TT performance, otherwise he’s picking his moment and winning at will.
Pogi also got cramp after going solo in 2023. He was definitely struggling that day even if the win was clearcut in the end.
Good to have a preview again, though not sure a lot of point.
At least people know what time the finish is… plus will be delighted of the script goes in the shredder this afternoon.
Thnx inrng, welcome back.
Perhaps we should just be grateful sit back and watch! We could be syndical if we watched previous eras, but seems less gossip about such things.
The tour used to be boring during the sky era, Lance who cannot be named and big mug eras so the classics were exciting, because we had rides attacking from distance.
Now we have a tour where every stage is raced full, till there is nothing left to give. Every classic is competitive, as someone else said without pog MVP would have cleaned the classics for another yr.
Like or dislike pog, he has changed cycling, yes he’s dominated, but I would rather with him than a mountain train suffercating the race and sprinting In the last km! When did brad, lance (post cancer) big mig ever race all year including all the classics. Its what everyone wanted! Cycling across the calender.
Often one person is dominant for 5 years or so, but soon he won’t be and maybe 3-4 will over take or get close to him. Seems we will remember him more with his dominance than one off winners…
->Anonymous
I agree with most. A rider who’s fearless and willing to attack is exactly what we’ve been yearning for all these years.
OTOH I also have to admit that Pogacar’s dominance comes with a price. For one, I’ve – for the first time in years – skipped the World and Lombadia, and from the comments afterwards they turned out to be as predicted. Is this good? All sports need superstars. But…
Cycling thrives on the thrill of the race and the spirit of competition above all else. It’s not like the 100m dash or pole vaulting, where a singular winning performance draws the crowd. Sure, stars are important—they are in every sport—but not mindless dominance.
Evenepoel made some comments about being ready for the second-to-last climb. I guess I may try to tune in to watch the pog attack.
He can be ready. But his problem is he can’t match Pog on climbs.
Although there’s always a first time…
I love this race even with the overwhelming favourite. Just a shame it falls at a point where it gets unfairly ignored by most fans aside from the diehards.
I’m not sure what you mean. Most cycling fans watch – it has the distinction of being the final Monument of the season – but casual fans aren’t likely to watch wherever it’s placed in the season. It’s more likely to be ignored by some cycling fans because of one rider’s dominance.
Well, just in my experience I have many cycling friends and almost not a single one has ever watched Lombardia, these are people who watch Roubaix, even Wevelgem but almost never last to Lombardia. If your friends are different then that’s a good thing.
Well not really “unfairly”….
Well, the best thing about this years Lombaria is that Del Toro may not get the podium….
Havn’t watched it, but from the comments I can almost guess the bore.
I guess I don’t mind a little predictability in the world right now…
How the riders now just look at each other the moment Pogi accelerates.
Which is precisely what he gambles on.
They (the rest) should all brush up on their team TT skills for next year, and counter as a pack.
IF they could ever coalesce like that.
I realize this has been said many times, but they should try it at least once.
Some people say it many times. And it doesn’t happen.
Then the same people say it again. And it doesn’t happen again.
Then the same people say it again and again. And very occasionally it does happen. But only very, very occasionally.
And the same people never give the impression of trying to understand the reasons why it doesn’t happen and the reasons why it sometimes very occasionally does happen.
The licking clean of plates has not completely disappeared from cycling and will never do so as long as putting your nose in the wind while others have the option to sit on your wheel costs so much energy.
None of which is to downplay Quinn Simmons’ racing today. Man of the race. Kudos.
Yah, but Quim Simmons is a known magat supporter of the Mango Mussolini. A pox on his chamois.
Ah, the famed tolerance of the left. We get it – only your point of view is permitted to be held.
That’s not how it works. No one is going to bring Remco or IDT along only to be crushed halfway through the chase.
Not a popular opinion, probably, but I stopped watching Lombardia three seasons ago when it became very clear that there wasn’t a race anymore. Watching UAE steamroll another race isn’t at all captivating to me as a cycling fan. I’ve gotten way more enjoyment watching women’s cycling this year than all but a small handful of men’s races. I guess the Pogi superfans will be happy, but I find this era we’re living through even more dire than watching Indurain was. When you’re left trying to find some interesting subplot because you already know two minutes in who the murderer is, maybe the film just isn’t very good.
Not sure it’s that unpopular. I respect Pog as a person and genuinely admire his work, but I won’t spend a single minute watching any race he’s in.
Popular or not, my impression is that the commentators here are fairly divided. As a Dane, I’ve enjoyed the earlier Vingegaard-Pogacar duels, but aside from the first 12 stages of the Tour, I haven’t watched any races Pogacar participated in this year.
After skipping Lombardia for most of the Pog-era, I decided to watch it this year. Apart from a great ride by Simmons, it turned out to be a complete disappointment. I should have trusted my instincts and expected yet another UAE disaster.
I think we can all give Quinn Simon’s a break on politics, he was a very young guy when making the comments that have stuck with him till now and few of us would be able to think outside of the bubble he was likely raised in.
Only saying this because his race yesterday was remarkable? If this wasn’t the era of Pog that might be the best ride anyone has done for the entire season?
To go away at the gun and still finish fourth in a route like this is truly exceptional and he deserves far more praise than pretty much any rider.
Remco has also been awesome at the end of this season, it’s funny to think were Pog not around then Remco would’ve had an all-timer season and maybe also deserves more praise than he’s getting.
Cool to see Storer there and surprised Del Toro was dropped, is distance just his enemy currently?
Quinn Simmons was the undeniable standout in an otherwise completely lackluster Lombardia.
It seems Simmons has hit his stride. If he—and Lidl-Trek—can figure out how to harness his talent effectively, he’ll be exciting to watch in ’26.
I would worry for Simmons that he has had his little golden period and hasn’t won anything. I see him as a slightly heavier set Healy, who probably needs to get in a big break early in a grand tour for a bit of time in a leadership jersey.
I know what you mean, but we shouldn’t forget that he’s still young and missed most of 2024 with concussion issues. If this is what he can do with his first full season of preparation at this level, I think he’s going to get the breakthrough we’re talking about. I’m just concerned that when he does he’s going to pull a Dygert and make it impossible for me to like him. I really hope he doesn’t, because his fresh approach to racing has been a lot of fun to watch and I actually agree with many of his comments regarding the marketability of cycling and how it can be improved.
I think its fairly obvious that Lombardy as a race in its current guise is broken. It has a degree of hope in its current format that Pogacar may be happy enough with equalling Coppi and starts focusing on races he hasn’t won, like Paris-Tours, the Gravel world championships or the Grand National. But all that would have meant yesterday is Evenepoel would have cruised home ahead of Storer. Its a race where, under its current level of difficulty with circa 4500m of climbing, riders finish in dribs and drabs. It doesn’t provide exciting attacks, they happen in slow motion on long steep hills, and doesn’t provide terrain for an exciting chase. Puncheurs trading attacks up the final cobbled climb into Bergamo would provide great viewing, as it has in the past, but the course that leads to it has to allow for it.
Having said all that the European Championships and Tre Valli Varesine were much easier/punchier and Pogacar walked them too.
Designing an anti-Pogačar course is difficult because the risk is you set up a bunch sprint instead that tours the plains and rice fields of Lombardia and few will watch that either.
It’ll be interesting to see the audience figures for the race due out soon.
I’m not privy to viewing figures, but my not at all scientific assessment of general engagement is that it seems to be down quite a bit in the races that Pog’s been walking. I recall the online chatter being a lot more interesting in 2023. But I’m biased against UAE, so it might just be sour grapes on my part!
Cycling fans wanting a contest might not tune in as much, even if many will still watch. But Pogačar can bring in extra audiences, the kind who don’t normally watch (more on this here from April https://inrng.com/2025/04/the-pogacar-effect/)
RCS for example would love him to ride the Giro.
Not to be underestimated as well in modern fan boy culture is the likes 30 second clips of him attacking or crossing the line solo get on instagram. That’s probably more important than having an entertaining race nowadays.
It might apply to certain segments and areas, but I don’t think it holds true for all viewers.
https://cyclingflash.com/news/concerning-global-decline-in-tour-de-france-tv-viewership
The paradox of the superstar: bring in more casual fans while simultaneously turning off a lot of established ones!
Looking back from the present day it is one of the more curious stats of ye olde tyme cycling that Andre Darrigade – he whose record number of stage wins by a sprinter in the Tour de France was broken by Cav on the way to overhauling Merckx’s overall record – won just the one Monument. Lombardy in 1956.