The Spin: Il Lombardia Preview

Friday, 28 September 2012

la classica delle foglie morte

A duel between Alberto Contador and Philippe Gilbert on some of the most beautiful roads of Europe? The scenery is guaranteed but we could have a wider cast fighting for the win. An exceptionally hard course with difficult conditions forecast means this race is going to test condition, handling skills and the mind.

Here is a preview of the route, the contenders, with TV times and details of a free stream, the weather forecast and more.

The Route: the race is defined by the series of climbs along the route The Valico di Valcava is a proper alpine-style climb with hairpin bends and a tough gradient, 11km at 8%. Next up is the Colle Brianza, just 4km at 7%, a short one to disrupt the rhythm and add climbing.

Sormano wall profile

Sormano: the Sormano climb featured last year but the standard route up to the top. This year sees the race turn off halfway up the climb after moderate 7% gradients to use an even steeper road, the Muro di Sormano, the wall of Sormano with 15.8% average and ramps at 25-27%.

Capisco che il Ghisallo non dava più garanzie di selezione, ma francamente si è esagerato nel senso opposto. Questa salita è semplicemente bestiale, impossibile da percorrere
I understand the Ghisallo can no longer guarantee a selection, but frankly this goes way too far in the opposite sense. This climb is simply beastly, impossible to ride.
– Ercole Baldini

That’s a quote from the past which lives on today as it is painted on the road, along with other citations and more in an art project that has decorated this climb. Used from 1960-1962 the road had riders walking up although compact chainsets and other aids will ensure riders are not humiliated tomorrow – 34×28 seems to be the pro choice. Regardless of gearing it is an intense effort and given the weather forecast, an exercise in balance and traction. And that’s just the climb, the descent back down to the shore of Lake Como is very tricky with sharp bends that tighten up and narrow roads through shaded woodland. It’s hard but a long way from the finish.

Soon after the descent comes the Via Vallesina, better known as the Ghisallo. At a roundabout outside Bellagio the riders will turn right and then start one of the sport’s mythical roads. The climb up to the Madonna del Ghisallo chapel starts hard with 10% gradients and hairpin bends. The first four kilometres continue at about 9% with some steeper ramps before the road levels out from Palaino to Civenna before the final ramps to the Ghisallo. As such this is almost two climbs, an early section followed by some flat and even downhill sections as the route goes through the village of Guello before the final kick to the chapel… and then there’s a pesky false flat that drags on. There’s also another difficult descent.

Salite di Ello – Villa Vergano: the final climb was a new edition last year and proved decisive. Winding up past houses on a narrow road, the road to  is steep with 3.4km at 8% but the last kilometre at 15%, a devastating gradient after 245km.

The Scenario: If the climbs define the route, don’t forget the rest. The climbs are fast and well-surfaced but this means the smooth tarmac is slippery in the wet. And there are some long flat sections between the climbs which can prove fatal to lone breaks or small groups.

An early break should pull out a big lead in the rain before the chase begins. The Sormano is 90km from the finish but enough to smash the peloton into pieces. Hopefully the carnage is on the climb rather than the descent and this should set up a selection for the Ghisallo climb which is then further refined by the final climb to Villa Vergano, the perfect springboard for an attack so a rider can go solo. It’s all about managing the effort, staying with the leaders on each climb and descent whilst saving energy for the next climb.

The Finish: the road to the finish line is flat… but only from 2.8km to go because the climb of Villa Vergano and its descent precedes it. Like so many of the roads in the area the descent is tricky and irregular, nervously winding its way down through fields, past gardens and houses. It’s technical on a normal road in dry conditions but after 250km in the rain mistakes can come easy.

The Contenders

Philippe Gilbert has won the race twice before and arrives with the rainbow jersey, riding clear on the Cauberg whilst everyone else floundered. This alone is enough to make him the outstanding contender for the race.

But before you rush to the bookmakers, note this race has a lot more climbing that last Sunday’s loop in Limburg. Lombardy is probably at the limit of Gilbert’s capabilities as the course suits the climbers more than the puncheurs, especially with the Sormano to break the legs midway in the race. But don’t forget he has a useful sprint if it comes to a small group finish. He can win but if he does, it will be special rather than predictable.

Alberto Contador says he’s 2.5kg heavier than the Vuelta but this didn’t stop him doing his familiar hip-swaying dance on the Superga to win Milan-Torino on Wednesday. Strong in the worlds, he should find this course more suitable but will probably have to anticipate a sprint and attack on one of the climbs.

Vincenzo Nibali isn’t a local since he’s from Sicily but he knows the local roads well. Last year he did a long lone break that was exciting but futile. He’s known as a demon descender but the Shark of Messina is fast getting a reputation for biting off more than he can chew and being reeled in by rivals in one day races but he can still impress. If not then team mate Moreno Moser is ready, he was setting the tempo in the worlds for Nibali before sitting up and Ivan Basso has been training quietly for this too.

Joaquim Rodriguez has a strong card to play being well-suited to these climbs and can sprint well in case he arrives with others. He looked good in Milano-Torino and could easily do a flyer on the Villa Vergano 15% ramps. But he’s not known for liking the rain.

Next comes a long list of riders to watch. First a trio of Colombians with Sky’s Rigoberto Uran and Sergio Henao and Acqua e Sapone’s Carlos Betancur who are all making a name for themselves as punch riders who can thrive on this course. Lampre-ISD’s Diego Ulissi was second to Contador on the Superga and the Tuscan has the burden of saving Lampre from a dismal season in their home race – you can see the Lampre HQ on the autostrada from Milan to Bergamo – whilst Damiano Cunego seems invisible these days. Franco Pellizotti, now infamous as one of the few riders to be caught by the bio-passport scheme, seems in shape as does Danilo di Luca. Scandinavia brings us Fred Kessiakoff and L-P Nordhaug, both capable of winning. Perpetual late season dark horse Sacha Kolobnev might be another lurker even if he almost never wins. Garmin-Sharp come with Dan Martin and Ryder Hesjedal, both are looking good.

Weather: this is important because rain is forecast all day. Temperatures will reach 19°C (66°F) in the valleys but it will be cooler on top of the climbs. Above all the rain makes the descents very tricky, there are some wild sections in dry but the wet makes it even harder. Hopefully  “the race of the falling leaves” doesn’t become the race of the falling riders.

TV: don’t forget this on Saturday. Eurosport is offering coverage from 4.00-5.15pm Euro time, Italy’s RAI is live from 3.00-4.45pm and there is a free video stream live from 2.30pm at gazzetta.it timed to pick up the race from the Sormano.

Do It: the spring classics in northern Europe are great races but once the sheen of new bikes and glow of team clothing has passed the landscapes are dismal and a solo ride isn’t the same. Similarly the Alpine roads used by the Tour de France are often major transport axes, they are great when the roads are closed but return as a tourist and the roads are less glamorous.

By contrast the roads of Lombardy are excellent with stunning views over the lakes and if you visit in the summer the waters are blue like a tropical lagoon. The region can be a bit crowded but Sunday morning sees the locals out riding, with packs of groomed silver foxes riding team-issue machines a common sight.

Happy Birthday Felice

Local Rider: the race starts in Bergamo with a special tribute to Felice Gimondi who celebrates his 70th birthday today. Elegant today, he had style on the bike and was one of the few who could challenge Eddy Merckx, although his victories against the Belgian were rare. Il Fenice, “the Phoenix” is only one of five riders to have won all three grand tours, plus he was world champion, took Paris-Roubaix, Milan-Sanremo and won the Giro di Lombardia twice.

Also spare a thought for BMC Racing’s Marco Pinotti. The Italian role model was storming around the worlds TT course until he fell and broke his collarbone. His season over, he lives just a few kilometres from the start and misses the chance to race in front of his local supporters.

Z for Zaugg: this isn’t a race you win by chance but last year’s winner Oliver Zaugg created a big surprise when he attacked on the final climb and rode away. Journalists scrambled for information but since he’d next to nothing during a long career it was hard to find any stories, more so since he’s a quiet family man from Switzerland who said that if he was reincarnated he’d like to come back as a marmottebecause nobody bothers them“. Sometimes results are a breakthrough, a rider’s confidence gets pumped to the max. But Zaugg has yet to step up and his best place this season is a 5th place in Stage 4 of the Tour of Colorado.

Ian September 28, 2012 at 1:06 pm

Lovely insight into the race, thanks as always.

steppings September 28, 2012 at 1:10 pm

All the ingredients for a truly classic race, oh I wish I was there.

Ablindeye September 28, 2012 at 1:34 pm

Thanks, looks like an exciting, unpredicatble prospect. One day races like this leaving me wishing for mainstream TV coverage here in the UK with a decent highlights package I can watch in the evenings, as we get with the Tour and even the Vuelta this year. Will be out with the kids during the day so, unless I get lucky with Steephill posting something extensive after the event, options are limited.

Anyone have any experience of using Eurosport Player? Would I be able to catch highlights or a repeat of the live broadcast on that after the event?

Jake M September 29, 2012 at 2:18 pm

You can stream Eurosport through Steephilltv.com.

Ablindeye September 29, 2012 at 11:18 pm

Thanks but the issue is not being able to watch it live due to other commitments hence was wondering if Eurosport Player lets you watch a repeat broadcast or puts out highlights. Otherwise I’m reliant on a decent highlight clip going on Steephill which often doesn’t happen :)

Ankush September 28, 2012 at 1:40 pm

I’d like to be a marmotte too, they are cute.

Matt September 28, 2012 at 1:47 pm

If Purito gets in the points he could take the World Tour title as I don’t think Bradley is going to Beijing. Something to think about…

leif September 28, 2012 at 1:59 pm

Great preview! But EBH is not starting, unfortunately. I don’t know what he’s doing for the rest of the season, because he is not on any of Sky’s squads for any upcoming races. A bit surprising that he wouldn’t try to utilize on the great form he showed in the Worlds, where he clearly was the 2nd strongest rider in the race.

Ps: I looked back to your worlds preview and noticed that your predicted podium was EBH, Gilbert and Kolobnev. Those 3 were in fact the 3 first over the top of Cauberg, so not a bad prediction!

MikeB September 28, 2012 at 3:11 pm

Sydney has it on ES and after your excellent summary (thanks!) I am due for another late nighter. RR also posted today Bettini’s descent 2006 – brilliant !, just the tops. I love this sport.

The Inner Ring September 28, 2012 at 4:14 pm

Thanks. I’d been waiting for a startlist but it’s not out yet so included Boasson Hagen in the hope he’d ride.

As for last week… thanks. Some people said I’d be wrong in the comments, it was a lucky pick.

Gingerflash September 28, 2012 at 2:18 pm

I wonder if Tiernan-Locke will be riding. Punchy, good on the very steep.

It’s a shame that Eurosport coverage starts so late, looks like they’ll miss the Sormano. The highlights programme might actually be better!

Gavin September 28, 2012 at 3:15 pm

Maybe next year but Endura won’t be racing and he’s not officially a Sky rider yet. Next year will be a transition season. Can he make it from local star to World Tour contender? The omens from the worlds are good and the Tour of Britain lists Lars Boom, Boassen-Hagen and Albasini as recent winners. All good riders.

Ronan September 28, 2012 at 2:27 pm

In the ‘Finish’ section, preclude should be precede?

My pick is Dan Martin. Nice to see him mentioned. Second last year and in decent form at the worlds, the extra climbing should suit him and, being Irish, the rain won’t be an issue.

The Inner Ring September 28, 2012 at 4:27 pm

Precede, yes. As for Martin, he seems very talent and can do very well on steep hills yet he’s short of results so far in his career because allergies, bad luck and more.

Larry T. September 28, 2012 at 4:04 pm

Great preview! Wish we could be there as we were last year, but I’m trying to see ALL 5 monuments with the Tour of Flanders 2013 next on the list. But we’ll be in Lombardia in spirit with cappuccino in front of the TV screen streaming (we hope) live video from RAI…it’s been too long since we’ve enjoyed Pancani and Cassani’s commentary. While the Brits (other than Heckel and Jeckel) are just fine, especially with Sean Kelly’s knowledge, there’s something special about hearing the Italian commentary at an Italian event. VAI NIBALI!

jack September 28, 2012 at 4:08 pm

Would enjoy seeing Gilbert take his first win as a World Champion. Valverde is hungry and could win it. Not sure about Contador’s ability to put two solo wins in one week this late in the season. And I think Nibali and Purito are just too tired by now (judging by how they had nothing in the tank at Piamonte when Contador attacked.

jack September 28, 2012 at 5:09 pm

I meant “judging by how they had nothing in the tank at MILAN-TORINO (not Piamonte) when Contador attacked”.

The Inner Ring September 28, 2012 at 6:57 pm

I’ve deleted Valverde now as he’s apparently out with a fever.

jack September 28, 2012 at 9:18 pm

Thanks, just read that he is out with a fever. Has he raced in Italy yet since his suspension? :)

Ty September 28, 2012 at 4:17 pm

Thanks for the great insight and I am looking forward to riders tackling a 25%+ gradient.

Lombardia September 28, 2012 at 4:48 pm

My favorite race of the year! Like Larry T., I hate to not be there in person at the hotel near the top of the Ghisahllo but the weather sounds like it will be more suited to watching on the television.

The first year the Colma di Sormano was used (2010 I think) my wife and I drove the new route. The climb (without the Muro di Sormano) was nothing out of the ordinary but the descent … that was something. I was actually afraid for the riders as the descent is extremely technical – even in dry conditions. Thant was the year that Nibali crashed on the descent allowing Gilbert and Scarponi to ride away to Como alone.

The next morning I ran into Nibali (along with Basso and Menchov) at a coffee shop at Malpensa airport. I told him I was sorry for his misfortune on Saturday. He just shrugged and said “next year”…

Flandrian September 28, 2012 at 6:05 pm

Unfortunately (or fortunately??), we won’t see Voeckler pulling his usual pain faces on Il Lombardia. Europcar has not been invited.

Duluth Baptist Clydesdale September 28, 2012 at 6:58 pm

I kinda hope Nibali manages to pull it off; nobody has animated more races this year, and he has nothing to show for it. The problem is that he is good enough to force a selection, but not quite good enough to beat the people that are selected. At least, not yet. A solo descent could win it for him here.

Vern September 28, 2012 at 8:37 pm

So Oliver Zaugg would like to be a marmotte. Great choice! I remember him climbing Mortirolo really well in this year Giro, but nothing else. Can you win Lombardia and don’t do anything else remarkable in your career?

I really liked the Villa Vergano climb last year. Short and explosive, the road is getting narrower and steeper, going through the town and really hurting cyclist legs. Maybe this year it won’t surprise the contenders, I think last year really did it.

Tricky Dicky September 29, 2012 at 12:20 am

Very strange that Zaugg would want to be a marmotte – some of the countryfolk who live in the mountains of Switzerland near Italy (Ticino?) hunt marmottes and cook them as a delicacy. Being Swiss, surely he’d know that?

Looking forward to the race – it is the sign of a great race when the two outstanding favourites are different types of riders who will have to adapt to win. Contador reckons he’ll take 36×28 or even 30 to get up the Sormano climb. Crazy.

Daniel September 28, 2012 at 8:57 pm

Excellent preview.
You are making me love races that i never cared of before.
Thank you. Honestly.

peloton.pl September 28, 2012 at 9:43 pm

Our amateurs circuit holds end-of-season race tomorrow too. Temperature should be similar to Lombardia, but we expect no rain, luckily. Right after our efforts – boom – on the coach with the beverage in one hand and relaying this knowledge to my mates. Thank Inrng

vimes September 28, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Chris September 28, 2012 at 10:58 pm

Great preview, thanks inrng. Enjoyed it more than usual as I’m in a hotel on Lake Como & heading to the race in the morning. Only thing is I hope you’ve got the weather forecast wrong…

Owen Rogers September 28, 2012 at 11:15 pm

I met Dan Martin before last year’s race and he told me he wants to win this race one year. I hope he does, though I want GIlbert to do well, he’s had a year of near misses seen as failures and deserves the respect.

I’ve visited the area twice, once by car and this year by motorcycle. I love it there. Next year I will be there for the race, I just told my wife. She said yes!

steppings September 29, 2012 at 12:07 am

British Eurosport scheduled for live coverage for 1hr 15mins really does not do this great race the justice it deserves. Pip Gilbert for the win!

Lombardia September 29, 2012 at 12:33 am

Interesting (or not) – RCS has been trying to rebrand the race as “Il Lombardia” but the link to their direct coverage tomorrow still refers to the race as the Giro di Lombardia.

http://videochat.gazzetta.it/index_Giro_di_Lombardia01.shtml (bottom of the page)

Dachs September 29, 2012 at 8:23 am

Excellent preview.
Can’t wait.

NaturalBornHolmer September 29, 2012 at 10:42 am

Giro di Lombardia is one of the most beautifull pro races. The area of Lake Como is interesting to explore from a bike, lots of climbs and narrow roads, perfecto for cycling. I have been there two times ridng around the area by bike. A visit to the little church at Ghisallo and the bicycle museeum is a must for every cyclists. The food at the restaurents in the area are of course second-to-none! You can rent super racing bikes in Cernobbio at http://www.lakecomocycling.com. Very nice people!

hoh September 29, 2012 at 5:20 pm

Do they rent pedal as well or you can bring your own?

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