A flat run across before the finish on the coastal defences that stop the Netherlands from being submerged by the North Sea. The clue is in the oxymoronic name: Zeeland, sea land.
Stage 1 Wrap: the crowd cheered as Tom Dumoulin tucked low, his hands clasped together and head bowed as if in prayer but the gods couldn’t make the local win happen. Rohan Dennis set the fastest time and with it, the fastest average speed ever seen in time trial in the Tour de France, prologues included… if the course distance is accurate, there’s some doubt. Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara were close but in a matter of seconds the sport skipped a generation from thirty-something riders to Dennis, still a white jersey candidate.
It’s the big result “Dennis has been promising. It brings his career full circle after time spent in the Netherlands with the Rabobank Development squad in 2011 – with Tom Dumoulin – a period that didn’t work out for him; or it was at least a learning experience. He only ended up there after several deals fell through, first the Cervélo test team were interested in the Australian prodigy but the sponsorship dried up so he was going to sign with Pegasus team in Australia but that squad went to the glue factory. At one point he was finding more doors closing in his face than a Jehovah’s Witness. Now things are different, he’s so in demand he was even the subject of a rare mid-season transfer to BMC Racing, started the year with a home win in the Tour Down Under and broke the Hour Record.
Dennis also leads the points competition but tomorrow Tony Martin will wear the green jersey, especially in this heat you can’t wear two jerseys. The heat matters, it was making some suffer in the short time trial but in the coming days there are long stages and fatigue can build up already for those not used to it. The only jersey that won’t appear is the mountains jersey. There are no mountains in the Netherlands and they’re not even using a canal bridge to award a point. Kindly the podium ceremony gave a jersey to 1970s champion Joop Zoetemelk.
The “Big Four” all passed yesterday’s exam. In shooting terms this was a good grouping with all finishing in a similar time with Nibali clocking the best time, a small surprise. But this quartet is reductive, we saw plenty more names in action. Wilco Kelderman was the best of the GC candidates. Thibaut Pinot did very well too but if you say “what” his team will reply “watts” as he’s rarely finished outside the top-20 in time trials for two years now and the long straights suit his brute force. Similarly Nairo Quintana made a name for himself in 2013 when he won the Tour of the Basque Country by beating Richie Porte in the time trial. Yes both Quintana and Pinot are in the climber pigeon-hole but they’re not the darting, irregular types who yo-yo uphill. Disappointments of the day included Michał Kwiatkowski, over a minute down, and Romain Bardet, over 90 seconds down and almost rivalling Pierre Rolland for time losses. He swapped numbers with Bakelants to avoid wearing “13”, it didn’t work for the opening stage at least.
The Route: flat and unremarkable? Flat yes but the roads will be lined by crowds and street furniture and just trying to move up in the bunch won’t be easy. The one intermediate sprint in Rotterdam will give us a clue as to who wants the green jersey. The last 50km run along the coast and are exposed to the crosswinds but the forecast says thunderstorms ahead of high winds. But that could mean swirling winds rather than a steady see breeze: enough to make riders nervous so crashes are more likely than splits but the more nervous the peloton, the more the self-fulfilling prophecy of crashes causing splits is likely.
The Finish: the stage ends on an artificial island braced by flood defences on which the approach road arrives. It’s flat and supremely exposed to the sea breeze. But the real obstacles are the roundabouts before the bunch hits the sea wall, there are six between the 10km and 5km to go point. Again this raises the crash danger but the position risk matters as a rider with the wrong line can lose 20 places in no time and never get back.
The Contenders: Mark Cavendish is the prime pick. He’s got the speed, the team and the experience to win this. But like Inspector Columbo scratches his head and asks “just one question”, has he got the form? He’s been having a decent year but got chopped in the Tour de Suisse, lost the wheels of his team mates and missed his chance.
Alexander Kristoff is next. The Norwegian is having a dream season and if he doesn’t win today the question is surely when he will win. Watch to see if he goes for his usual long sprint. The same for André Greipel, not the long sprint, but he’s in good form and seems due to win somewhere.
John Degenkolb gets the full Giant-Alpecin train in his service. He is a great sprinter but in a straight line contest with Kristoff and Cavendish he’s yet to show the top speed.
Nacer Bouhanni is supposed to sit out this sprint on account of his injuries, the team says they’ll target Stage 5 onwards but I can’t see it, he’s a figher and could give it a go. FDJ’s Arnaud Démare has the raw speed and power but seems to be lacking confidence and could find his little sprint train shielding Pinot. On the subject of Frenchman Bryan Coquard will probably find this sprint too flat and fast.
The surprise would be Sam Bennett of Bora-Argon 18. Yes this is the big stage but as a young pro he’s more likely to strike early rather than wait for the third week. The safer youth pick is Michael Matthews but he prefers a hillier, more selective run to the line. It’s hard to see Peter Sagan winning the straight line sprint but he should be in the top-5 if he wants that green jersey.
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Mark Cavendish, Alexander Kristoff |
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André Greipel |
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Degenolb, Démare, Matthews, Bennett, Sagan, Boasson Hagen |
Weather: Dry and partly sunny at the start. Then, some thundery showers are expected, becoming more isolated at the finish. Temperatures: 26˚C degrees in Utrecht, 20˚C degrees in Zeeland. Variable winds, strengthening in thunderstorms and at the finish.
TV: live images start at 1.50pm Euro time and the whole stage will be visible from start to finish. Whether you want to tune in so early for a predictable procession is up to you. The intermediate sprint in Rotterdam is forecast at 3.30pm and the finish is expected around 5.30pm.
It’s on many home channels, Eurosport too and if all else fails you can rely on Cyclingfans and steephill.tv for links to feeds and streams.
No cross winds? I will be disappointed.
Fancy Kristoff to go from about 300 metres out and mug Cavendish today.
Looking forward to seeing the intermediate too. Full-on battle there unless a good-sized break mops up all the points.
Hard to know who will go away. Bretagne-Séché of course but all the other wildcard teams have sprint cards to play and so less interest to go clear.
Anyone think something may be in the works from Cancellara if the winds pick up? Only needs 6 seconds for yellow and BMC have TVG to worry about as well as Dennis
That makes sense to me. In fact, both Martin and Cancellara are within some bonus seconds of yellow. We know that both can go it alone and, if they time it right, can be a threat. Wouldn’t surprise me at all to find the sprinters get mugged.
“At one point he was finding more doors closing in his face than a Jehovah’s Witness.”
Bloody hilarious!!!
+ 1.
Lovely write up.
I wonder how BMC feel about defending the jersey. Dennis will surely want to keep it for a while but I imagine the team brains-trust would prefer to keep the team fresh for later battles protecting TVG.
This is a great time for them to have the jersey. It means that they can sit all 9 on the front and will most likely get some help from one or two sprint teams at least in the second half. This way they are right out of the way of any nervous crashes and don’t have to fight to hold their position all day. If this keeps them out of trouble for two days by virtue of having the yellow jersey it may mean that some of the team will be fresher come the chaos of stage 4. It will be one big fight for position and at this point Oss and GVA will have to look after TJ as best they can. This job can only be made easier if they are near or at the front to start with.
There should not be too much work, the sprinters teams will take over. If anything it helps as the have the “right” to be at the front of the race rather than being yet another GC team trying to tangle with the sprinters. Also it helps for the car convoy position, should anything happen sitting high on GC helps ensures the team car is first in the queue behind.
Already missing Jensie …
If you listen to paul and phil you can get your yensie fix
Ok it’s a bit different….
Stunning ride from Dennis, and well deserved after a string of second places. I think like most people I first really noticed him when he beat a top form Chris Froome in the 32km time trial during the 2013 Dauphine, then finished only a minute down on Froome up the HC final climb the next day.
As for today, well Cav is one of the few people who’ve beaten Kristoff in a flat drag race this year so he’s my pick.
And their team support car will be first in the caravan. Riders won’t have to drop back to far for water or mechanicals.
What about Sinkeldam? We saw how the Dutch rode yesterday being in their home country and Sinkeldam is a talented sprinter. Being dropped off at the front by the team that normally drops off Kittel, he could be a pick.
Surely he’ll be working for Degenkolb? Sinkeldam has won a stage of the World Ports Classic on these roads but is surely going to struggle against Cavendish, Kristoff and the others?
Does Froome’s relatively slow run indicate a loss of muscle mass for this years tour?
Let’s not extract too much from one time trial 😉
As it happens I’ve heard him saying he had less muscle last year because his crash in the Dauphiné forced him to rest.
I took it to mean that this year’s Froome model was more prepped for climbs than time trials.
Another fantastic preview.
Hope the stage will bring what I expect it to!
This might need some rephrasing, though:
“especially in this heat you can’t wear two jerseys in this heat”
Without the info at hand to back this up, but from memory Cavendish has always started slowly in the tour and doesn’t generally win the first sprint. Greipel for me, then wait for the “Cavendish is finished” articles before he wins at least 3 stages.
Cavendish won the first flat sprint in 09 and 12, so it’s not impossible to start well.
I’m going for Kristoff today, especially if the elements make it a battle. The aging Cav increasingly needs all the stars to align to get the win.
“Disappointments of the day included Michał Kwiatkowski, over a minute down”
Reckon this will give him space to attack later on, or will he be too closely marked?
I read somewhere that data from the riders’ bikes suggests the time trial was in fact 13,4 km, not 13,8. This would mean the average speed is “only” 53 kph and a bit.
I can’t seem to find the article again, at the moment, though. This would make more sense, though.
Several riders are saying the same thing, they’ve uploaded the rides to Strava etc. If so I wonder if the “record” by Dennis stands.
Garmin and other GPS units aren’t actually ‘super accurate’ (but they’re pretty good).
http://fellrnr.com/wiki/GPS_Accuracy
I’ll put my money on Degenkolb, he has a lot to prove
This time next week, you won’t even remember the prologue never mind predicting winners and losers from it.
I hope we get better camera angles for the Sprint finishes than we normally get. The usual head-on shot shows nothing of the developing fight over the last 350-400 metres. Helicopter shots, cable mounted cameras like the have above the pits in motor races and above football pitches….even drone shots., We normally only get to see what happened 4 or 5 minutes after the action in the slo-mo shots. Please Mr TV Producer…..
I like the head-on for the finish – and show the overhead on the replay.
The worst is the Champs finish where they do the side-on, moving camera – you miss all the fight and only see the front rider (with maybe the guy who is in second if it’s really close). Arty, but not good.
Rohan D showed the way – wouldn’t it be nice if some of the other ‘young’ kids mugged the Experts old timers? Think I’ll go with Démare and Bennett today – let’s go guys, time to rock!!
I was reading somewhere (can’t remember exactly, there’s been so many blogs and articles lately – not all as good as this though Inrng !) that Cavendish wins when it is windy on a TdF sprint stage.
No reason to change that, his team are experts with these conditions and a great lead-out train to boot.
Hopefully all the GC boys arrive safely in one piece.
Froome looked pretty focused / pensive at the start line.
Wow. Great stage.
Only two days in, and two excellent stages.
Cav may have lost it, but his team did the biz there.
Almost a min and half taken out of the peleton.
Great to see the Brits go with it.
What amazing scenery too, the scale of the engineering and the enormity of the landscape.
With a cycle path, wherever you go !
Cycling nirvana.
And, Holy Mackerel Cancellara!!
Cavendish heartless act of sitting up at the end of the sprint has cost Martin the yellow jersey. Kudos on Cancellara for his racing acumen and huge heart (legs, too).
Absolutely agree. I just call Cave ‘Mr. Egocentric’. Denying the first ever yellow jersey for his teammate Tony Martin who pulled so much for him during this stage!
Did Etiix let themselves get mugged by Lotto there? Why do quite so much work on the front when a lot of the others had a lot to gain (incl Lotto)… Left them with a train of one when it counted and Cav as a sitting duck with Greipel glued to his tail.
C’mon, I don’t think that was deliberate.
I’m sure it wasn’t deliberate, but thoughtless, at best; selfish at worst.
Yep.
In that split second when he realised he wasn’t going to win he thought “hold on, maybe that’s Cance coming on the far side and if my maths are right, the bonus might put him in yellow ahead of my teammate. It’s so lucky that after fighting to be near the front all day on a fairly difficult stage, my mental agility is so incredible that I’ve got perfect reactions in all situations and can make them in less than blink of an eye. Lucky, because if I didn’t, people would take to Twitter and blogs, and having never found themselves in this situation, would be able to tell me exactly what to do whilst casting aspersions on my character. Now let’s throw this bike at the line.”
Yes, one of my first thoughts, too. It is a shame. But it fits their whole season: If there is something to loose, they loose it and if there is a way to look foolish, they surely find it. It’s the second day with dissapointment for Tony Martin, I hope he gets a break. But it was a thrilling stage and Fabian Cancellara getting his 29th yellow jersey is something I can live with.
For me his legs were done, he was forced to start the sprint too early and just blew up before the line, it’s not like he could have delivered another surge to hold off Cancellara. The problems came earlier with Martin not marking or even blocking Cancellara and the team launching their sprint way too early.
What a stage! Smashed! More like this please…
Quintana once again showing his frailty on the flat – we’ve seen this before, e.g. in last year’s Vuelta and Giro. As I said pre-race, that’s his key weakness and the time to punish him. Oddly, this weakness has mostly been ignored.
Surprised at Nibali making such a tactical error: I say ‘tactical’ for Nibali because we know he has the ability on the flat (also he lost most of his time later – Quintana lost a minute very quickly). Quintana does not share this ability and I suspect that this will always hinder his TDF career.
Very sensible rides from Sky and Lotto – did less work than most and kept themselves in the right place.
So much for Astana’s supposedly otherworldly performances at the Giro – always was just smart, alternating uses of domestiques. Both they and Movistar – with Castroviejo, Dowsett and Malori – would have been expected to do more to help their leaders: the last 10k was a calamity.
Kwiatkowski will be knackered for the Mur tomorrow, but so will many others – including Valverde? Or did he not make much of an effort today, saving himself?
Cavendish threw it away by going inexplicably early: he only had one man left, but stay behind him. As someone said above, he really does always make a hash of one or more early stages – rush of blood to the head, I reckon.
He even blew it – by not continuing his sprint – for Tony Martin, who seems destined never to be in yellow. Martin and EQS will be delighted with Cavendish for that. After the number of times Martin has helped Cavendish.
Also, Nibali may have been caught out behind a puncturing Hansen, whereas Quintana was just blown off the back of the group.
*crashing Hansen.
What was so sensible about Sky not trying to put as much time as possible on Quintana and Nibali?
Sky contributing from 50km with 3 riders (2 to contribute) with potential crosswinds in last 25km and then Froome being shot out the back in last 25km would have looked very stupid – their tactics today were perfect – they’re a team of climbers with 3 classics riders – you wouldn’t have expected them to have more riders in the break and the played it to perfection.
BMC on the other hand made a big mistake – could have 2mins if they’d contributed and save 2 riders for TVG just in case of a finale disaster. Especially as TVG needs time and had a golden opportunity today.
Contador knows Froome will likely climb better, and likewise Qintana so went all in, correct tactic for him. Convinced if Froome & Sky had contributed, Contador would have put them to the sword w/Sagan later if winds had come back.
& Stannard wasn’t that strong today – Froome may have chatted with him and assessed situation before making call not to contribute.
Movistar always getting caught in crosswinds is a disaster, how have they never learnt? Quintana was dropped twice today, is that a sign of form or very poor decision making.
D
Pretty much summed it up. Still waiting for the reason/excuse Astana left their captain out there on his own while SKY played things to perfection. I ragged on SKY’s tactics in the Giro but today Astana looked like a joke.
Stannard did a great job there. Took some heavy turns on the front of the break and kept Froome out of the wind.
If he’s as effective as that by the time the race hits the mountains, that will be job done very satisfactorily for him and the team and he might call it a day at that point.
Precisely. They gained a lot of time on VN and NQ, didn’t trouble CF and saved themselves much more than other teams did.
Movistar and Astana did not look clever.
“Look at this photo,” Cavendish stated pointedly on Twitter, posting a shot of the sprint finish. “If I could hang on for third, I could hang on for the win… Some imbeciles think cycling is a computer game. Problem is, social media & TV are platforms for them to be heard. Gutted for Tony Martin. Congratulations Andre Greipel.”
No, look at the video of what ACTUALLY happened – Cavendish coasts at the end. But one wouldn’t expect him to hold his hands up – he so rarely does.
Cavendish can say whatever he wants, it doesn’t change what his own DS luckily were able to admit: They made two big mistakes and they are the idiots oft the race (their words, not mine).
Like I said, I don’t think it was a deliberate thing as some are suggesting.
If there’s any criticism to hand out, perhaps save it for BMC.
They had lots of riders in the break, and barely contributed to the effort, preferring to site comfortable. Why ?
If they had took their fair share of turns, they could have put another 10 / 20 + seconds in to the other GC contenders who had been left.
It would be tough if, say, TVG loses out on a podium by that margin.
From what I’ve read, BMC were caught with a miserable choice: TVG in the lead group, yellow jersey Dennis out the back. They waited for Dennis (they say) for a while and then backed TVG to stay in the group – which was their stated objective, even after Dennis’ TT win. Tough day for Dennis – probably the worst treatment of the yellow jersey that I can recall, having your own team ride away. How did the team let Dennis go in the first place? Surely they should have had a plan for this kind of situation in their strategy for the day – a plan that involved keeping Dennis & TVG together near the front.
Rohan Dennis describes the moment the gap opened up – and his own decision not to close it – on the BMC Racing Team’s website: http://bit.ly/1H0sBYU
Dennis would have lost the jersey to a sprinting Cancellara anyway, I dunno what the fuss is about
oops my mistake the bonus seconds wouldnt have been enough if Rohan was there
If Dennis had been there would have been others so Cance unlikely to get 3rd, even if just because EQS would have had less work to do and delivered Cav a bit later.
Thanks for the link, explains it well although its still very mercenary treatment of the leaders jersey. Admirable sacrifice from Dennis – hope TJ Hooker buys him a beer. Here’s an excerpt from the BMC blog:
Dennis, the winner of Saturday’s opening stage time trial, said he saw the decisive split unfold right in front of him.
“We were going through a lot of roundabouts and I was sort of toward the back, thinking it was safe because it wasn’t too hard,” he said. “Then Pinot led the gap go. He swung out and basically looked at me, saying I had to close it. I looked around and saw Nibali was there as well. So I made the call not to chase because if Nibali losses time, it is better.”
Dennis said the reality of losing his grip on the leader’s yellow jersey after a single day sunk in while riding with the second group the last 40 kilometers.
“It was a bit hard to swallow, but I came to terms with it,” he said. “I could have closed the gap and taken Nibali with me – which more than likely would have meant I would have kept the jersey. But by sitting up, Nibali lost time, which makes it better for Tejay, who is our goal for the Tour.”
Regardless of how you get there, once you’re in that situation and have decided to ride, the more time you get the better.
Great stage today, saw it on the road at km 60 and rode back home in time for the finish. Not yet sure how all the splits happened but having felt the wind in my face I’m not surprised. Great to see early mayhem without a major crash.
Why did Cavendish coast at the end? It’s clear that he did on the video playback.
It’s not as if sprinters don’t often coast at the end – once they’ve given all they can to get up to maximum speed and hold it for a couple of hundred metres, anything else is potentially somewhat cosmetic.
It’s the sitting up and not throwing the bike at the line just in case he should perhaps be apologetic about. Although I don’t think it would have made any difference. And it’s rather easier to have perfect judgement when you have a couple of minutes to think about it on a comfortable sofa than when you’ve just exhausted yourself on a wet and windy day on the bike.
It is amazing how intelligent Cav’s critics are, sitting on the couch and deciding what should have been done hrs after the race is finished.
Everyone hated him ’til he couldn’t be beat, now that the best sprinter, probably of all time, is starting to spin down everybody wants to throw him under the bus again. Griepel was clever, Cav lost, Cancellara hustled into yellow, great race.
Man I don’t know, the sprint happens way too fast to think “oh I’m not gonna win it, but let’s keep going so tony will be in yellow!” So I think cab should be excused. Yeah the DS could’ve told him on the radio before that tony had a shot if cancellara is not on the podium that day, but are you really going to tell your guy who is trying to win the race: “ey btw if u happen to lose, keep on riding!” .. That’s not very motivational. I’d just call it an inconvenient side effect of cav losing the sprint.
+1
It is pretty obvious why Cav coasted at the end, he knew his match was burned, Griepel was coming past and second is NOWHERE.