Almost the last chance of the season to land a big win, only now it’s also the first chance for many to win Lombardia given five-time winner Tadej Pogačar is out.
The Course
Bergamo to Como, the long way with 239km, not the hardest route going but still 4,600m of vertical gain. If the start and finish have alternated over the years, the route in between has been more varied. Plus Como will host the finish for the next few years too. This time no Muro di Sormano, instead this vintage resembles the 2022 edition. It’s uphill from the start with the climb to Gavarno via the Colle dei Pasta, a gentle ascent and descent. The Selvino is next, a well-engineered climb with hairpins galore midway. There are no traps on the climbs of the Berbenno, Valpiana and Giovenzana, often big ring climbs.
With 70km to go the climb of the Madonna del Ghisallo begins. It’s in two parts and the hardest part is the start out of Bellagio with some 10-15% sections. It levels out through Guello before a more tame rise over the top to pass the chapel where the bells will ring for the race and then then a twisty descent down to Asso after which the road heads for Como.
There are three final climbs. The road to San Fermo della Battaglia is climbed, then there’s the ascent to Civiglio, then San Fermo again. Of the two climbs, Civiglio is harder but it opens with a long straight ramp up before the ten hairpins starts. San Fermo’s not easy, a tight turn to start with puts anyone ten wheels back in trouble to start with before the narrow road twists up through the woodland.
The Finish
Another time up to San Fermo, a series of 7% ramps winding up to the 5km to go point and then followed by a regular descent with tight bends which flattens out with just over 1km to go.
The Contenders
Absent Tadej Pogačar it’s a far more open contest, would it have been worth doing a preview if he was going to start? Isaac del Toro (UAE) makes for an obvious stand-in, the Mexican is in form even if he has talked about a knee injury this did not stop him going on the attack in Thursday’s Gran Piemonte. Brandon McNulty is a form pick but while he could drift away to open up a gap in the worlds, his rainbow jersey mean’s he’ll be heavily marked, no rider in a race debrief will want to say they let the world champion float away. Jan Christen fits the archetype but his form isn’t as obvious.
Second in Emilia last weekend and the Tre Valle Varesine in the week, Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) looks like a good podium pick and he can sprint well from a group to take the win. At 27 he’s the team’s totemic rider but will see competition on the roster next year with new signings and now would be a good time to land his first Monument.
Giulio Ciccone is likely to be a Pidcock team mate but has a shot now for Lidl-Trek. Smarting from his loss in the Euro road championships, he has a fast sprint and will like the hilly finish but can he put it all together? This would be his biggest win by far. Quinn Simmons thrived in last year’s edition, one of the few to try and resist Pogačar and looks to be in form. Juan Ayuso races, under the radar.
A year ago Paul Seixas (Decathlon-CMA CGM) was a very promising seventh. Now he faces the direct question of how to win? Render the race as hard as possible and then wear down rivals on the final climbs. His team will do their part to sap the field.
Without Pogačar Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) is a deductive pick, the best of the rest on paper and he’s in form. But as we saw the worlds, he is beefier now than July and was beginning to struggle on the climbs; a challenge here with a course backloaded with harder climbs. But he’s far from ruled out, there’s no Sormano to shred the field. It’s just he might have to race tactically, getting ahead of rivals before they trade attacks on the Civiglio; or hoping things regroup. Giulio Pellizzari brings more options but looks to be coming off the boil, there’s a a strong team with Jai Hindley and Primož Roglič.
Visma-LAB have Matteo Jorgenson and Davide Piganzoli (pictured) as leaders and Louis Barré and Ben Tulett as outsiders. Jorgenson’s difficulty is winning from a sprint but this course is selective enough to rarely see a group contest the win. Piganzoli could well be the most improved rider of the year but even so, landing a Monument would be massive.
Enric Mas (Movistar) was second here in 2022 with the very similar route. As good as his form’s been, he can almost be excused for celebrating his Vuelta triumph. Christian Scaroni (XDS-Astana) is consistently good but can he win at this level? EF Education-Easypost’s Ben Healy is a long shot pick but does deliver from time to time. Bahrain have a cohesive team with Pello Bilbao as their leader in his last race, Lenny Martinez has punch, Jakob Omrzel just one to watch and Antionio Tiberi in form but probably deployed to help. Lotto-Intermarché have Lennert Van Eetvelt who is suited to the course and Jarno Widar who’s just won the Tre Valli Varesine. A late season race in Italy means Marc Hirschi can’t be ruled out but this is probably too hilly for him. Oscar Onley (Netcompany-Ineos) is an outside pick. Now that Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X) has found winning ways he ought to land more but this is a tall order.
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Del Toro, Pidcock |
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Evenepoel |
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Seixas, McNulty, Jorgenson, Ciccone, Scaroni |
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Onley, Widar, Healy, Piganzoli, Simmons, Pellizzari, Bilbao |
Weather: weak sunshine and 20°C, a pleasant autumnal day and almost no wind to mention.
TV: live from start to finish. KM0 is at 11.00am and the finish is forecast fro 5.00pm CEST. The Ghisallo climb will start around 3.00pm and the finishing climbs around 4.15pm.
It’s on RAI Sport then RAI 2 for locals and VPN users, otherwise Eurosport in Europe, Flobikes in north America and SBS in Australia which is also in English for any VPN users too.
With riders understanding that this is an opportunity they may never see again, I expect this race to be brutal. If Del Toro showed better form in the run-up I would expect UAE to do their normal thing, but I’m not sure that would be wise. My guess would be that the winner will come in by himself or maybe a two-up sprint; it will be one for the survivors. Selfishly I’d like to see an American in the mix and I wouldn’t be surprised if Jorgenson is there at the end.
It’ll be interesting to see if UAE still race like UAE and set a hard pace from the start just like they would for Pogačar. As one DS says in L’Equipe today, they sometimes make mistakes doing this but Pogačar is able to make amends for this but not sure Del Toro can. But other teams have an interest in wearing down the field too.
No matter who’s going to be at the front, I’m confident that we’re going to witness another chapter of what has begun at the Worlds as the weekly chicaning of Tom Pidcock by Matteo Jorgenson. Maybe this time there’s going to be more people willing to chase. 🙂
Seixas will try to bulldoze his way to win but will be soon left alone against 4 Red Bull, 4 UAE, 2 Visma and Pidcock. McNulty will attack but will be countered by Jan Christen ; once Hindley doing his part, the 3 Red Bull left will not decide who to ride for. Remco will attack six times with his arms up and will finish crashing into Roglic by pure despair. Only Seixas and Pidcock and the Visma will pull at the front and catch Christen at 3km ; then a late attack by Mathys Rondel, come back from nowhere, will make him have the first and only win of his carrier (which he will end at 35, after 98 second places and 56 third).
After the race, Remco will say very bad things at the Belgian TV about balls and responsibility. Roglic will say : “err you know these things happen, it’s like that”.
Just realised I forgot Ramses and Onley in my story…
“McNulty will attack but will be countered by Jan Christen” – class
Brilliant!
Chapeau Cascarinho! That’s why I miss this spot so much when our host isn’t around.
Well, I should have stopped at the 8 first words…
A bit OT, but does Ciccone have any justification for his grumbling? The pics I saw were close, but pretty conclusive. Ultimately he was short, by the tiniest fraction, but that’s racing.
Re: Lombardia. It’s a shame Jonas V doesn’t do one day races. Surely he’d have a chance if he did.
Perhaps not on the race itself, though both my mother and myself watching live thought Ciccone had won initially. However given the very perfunctory press release put out by Lidl-Trek today about Ciccone leaving (presumably to join Pidcock), it seems that relations between the management of Lidl-Trek and Ciccone have completely collapsed. So Ciccone may have very good reason for his complaining (though IMHO Skjelmose has more reason so to do).
He’s still recovering from his crash in the Tour
He’s currently training in Mallorca.
You’re always going to wonder what you could have done especially when so close and with a prize of big result for points and a jersey next year etc, and among the 1,001 questions is whether the camera was right but there’s nothing he can do about it; and how the camera works (it’s not a single photograph etc) and set up can be something to think about.
Not convinced I can see Pidcock sticking with Del Toro/Seixas on a climb as long and as steep as the Civiglio. But I suppose it’s not the last climb. Could be a fairly open race and maybe a McNulty-esque surprisish winner.
Given that the three of them finished together last year, I can definitely see Pidcock sticking with Del Toro and Seixas. The more important question is form – Del Toro claims to be injured and may actually be so, and Remco’s form has been up and down like a honeymoon duvet. Also considering how Worlds (and to a lesser extent) Europeans went it is entirely possible that the lead 8-10 riders spend their time looking at each other and playing silly games (with Remco gesticulating wildly). Therefore I could well see a surprise winner from whomever gets fed up with this first and attacks, while all the other favourites expect the others to do the work.
So, Healy for the win? Or do Ciccone and Pidcock openly work together?
It was Bergamo finish last year. Different climbs. The Civiglio is real steep.
I would be shocked if Pidcock dropped Evenepoel, however beefy he might be, on any of these climbs.
Would you really be surprised? Remco was dropped several times at the Worlds. Hardly any of the top riders at the Worlds raced at the Euros. I think it is very unclear what Remco’s climbing will be like after 200km.
Evenpoel can win San Sebastian by riding away on the wall-like Murgil climb so it’s a close thing now. But some talk he’s heavier, based of people seeing him up close, so it’s not as easy to do this after 4k of climbing. It might be more of a media narrative but this race has taken a lot from him in the past so you wonder if he has a special focus to win it now, or if he puts this aside?
Totally OT: I found this website on climbs in Flanders the other day. Folks living / traveling there might find it useful: flemishroads.com
With the trade teams here it shouldn’t be quite as open as worlds. I don’t think Pidcock can do it with the proper climbers who are also here. Del Toro seems like the much better bet with such a strong support team. We wouldn’t normally be talking about McNulty but I think there is something to be said for whoever is wearing the rainbow bands. If UAE are smart they can use him as more than a pawn on the chessboard now
Think Pidcock could do it, but only if he wastes less energy than in recent races.
A great final weekend with a more open Paris-Tours tomorrow.
Think Pidcock has raced too much in the last month and may lack freshness.
Onley has been improving of late and merits two rings.
Pidcock is mercurial.
I can’t predict what you’re going to get with him one day or the next.
Clearly an excellent rider but in that tough middle ground where he’s he’s not a sprinter/classics rider nor a pure climber which leaves him with few races to truly challenge in (MSR, Ardennes…) and when he does have a good day he’s often a little unlucky either because of Pog or because he’s more famous than his palmares so often gets heavily marked.
I slightly agree that today is just a touch too much climbing for him so would be surprised to see him win but would be happy if so – a first monument for such a talented rider would be richly deserved.
Two up sprint into como; CICCONE stuffs Remco.
Recent evidence suggests that wouldn’t happen.
And new evidence also suggests it won’t – who’s gonna ride really hard for someone waving goodbye to the team early?
In all fairness – just because there’s been some dispute with the team and new management, it doesn’t mean the riders on Ciccone’s team won’t ride for him if he’s their best bet?
I also can’t imagine LT would have even let him ride if they weren’t planning to support given he’s one of the favourites? Unless it’s just an Italian thing given it’s an Italian race? Maybe you’re right but I think he’ll be supported especially as the exit hasn’t happened overnight, it must have been boiling under for a while and he’s been racing throughout.
CICCONE looks best bet for Lidl trek if they actually want to win the race.
My comment was meant to be slightly humorous given recent events but id like to see it happen. Any Italian winner would be good as none since nibali in 2017
Three or four weeks ago I’d have had Del Toro as the clear favourite here but his apparent injury and inability to shake Finn Fisher Black at Gran Piemonte undermines that now.
Evenepoel seems to be growing in confidence and prepared to go to the line with an increasing number of racers. Winning would be redemption after two seconds and his 2020 crash but again I’m not sure he’s completely prepared for this course at this time.
Seixas for all his talent almost already at barely 20 years old seems typecast as a diesel without a winning weapon. The wins have to come but just not today I suspect.
There are other racers I’d sooner see win but I’ll concede Pidcock has looked good and been thereabouts repeatedly of late. For all the talk of his descending ability he hasn’t really seemed able to capitalise on it to win in recent years but the finish here does favour him I think.
So by a process of elimination I’ll pick Pidcock to win with Ayuso a relative outsider for second and Evenepoel bringing in a small group for third.
Reality will differ but making picks passes the time for a race that starts at 2145hrs NZDT…
I was wondering why Ayuso hadn’t rated a mention but now he has. Should have his mind on the job after an average year and it looks like a course to suit.
Ayuso has been mediocre in his recent races this Autumn, and dropped very early on the climbs in the big races. It would be a big turn-around in form for him to podium Lombardia.
The climb at Gran Piemonte average 4~percent (I think), so not particularly steep. I think this explains Del Toro’s difficulty in shaking off his rivals and going solo.
However, you make a good point that there can be legitimate questions about all the top riders in the race (reflected in InnerRings analysis). This, I think, makes the race extremely open, and there is always a chance that an outsider will ride off the front of the race without the chase getting properly organised (as happened in the world championship).
Mas with the vuelta form is a clear favorite for me. The only one who managed to drop Pogačar on a longish climb since … tdf23?
Mas was duelling with Pogačar in 2022 and on the same course. But it’s a lot to ask that he repeats this form and outcome.
The “Mas dropping Pogi” narrative, I think, has been over-played. By all accounts Pogi didn’t know the time gaps, and was taken by surprise at the top of the climb since he didn’t realise that Mas was catching him until it was too late. [Of course, it was still an impressive performance by Mas.]
Agree, it’s not that he droped Pogačar, he was able to catch him. Still the only one that could do it and he would have won it. But Seixas.
Hoping the two Lennys (Martinez and VE) can fight it out. Otherwise if Piganzoli wins, then the big teams might start reaching for their cheque books.
Got a feeling Vino might have something up his sleeve so watch out for Astana.
Because Piganzoli rides for an underdog team?!
Err, big teams?
So you actually mean UAE?
I love this race
It’s also quite nice to see a healthy comments section for a race that’s often an afterthought for many of my cycling friends. I guess the absence of INRNG for a few weeks means we’ve all come back eager.