There’s still tomorrow’s stage to win the Giro but those with ambitions – read Richard Carapaz – won’t want to gamble on the last climb of race, better to deliver today and defend tomorrow.
Diesel Denz: Juan Ayuso abandoned, an insect sting to the face perhaps the final straw. After a crash on the opening day and another on the sterrato stage his race gradually came undone.
A maxi-breakaway and once on the finishing circuit the break split and a group of 11 riders got away. With one lap and 17km to go Nico Denz carved his way through a corner quicker than others, taking a couple of metres on Astana’s Nicola Conci. Denz pressed on, Conci hesitated and the rest of the group looked on. A few more metres and then the classic stand-off with nobody wanting to do the work as their efforts might only benefit others and Denz rode away for the win, a decent salvage operation for the Red Bull team to compound with Giulio Pellizari’s performances.
The Route: 166km and 4,950m of vertical gain. It starts up the Croce Serra, 500m of vertical gain and nothing savage but the slope where Fabio Aru built his Italian road race title in 2017. With a regular descent there’s 45km up the Aosta valley to the start of the Col Tzecore.
The Tzecore is far from famous but it is a brute, 16km at 7.7% in total but with three kilometres of 12-13% after the village of Orbeillaz. The descent is fast but often open with good visibility.
There’s about 10km across to the start of the next climb including the unmarked climb through Châtillon.
The Saint-Pantaléon is 16km at over 7%, hard again and especially with a steep start on a south-facing flank amid vineyards that soak up the heat. There are a couple of respites on the way up to keep the average down but otherwise it’s 8-9% for a lot of the way but all on a well-made road.
Next is the Joux and the easiest climb of the day, 15km and for the most part steady at 7% as it winds up through bovine pastures. Easiest but still a long climb and by now fatigue can play a part.
The Finish: after the Joux pass, a descent and then the side road to the finish of Champoluc via Antagnod, the profile shows the climb here. Then 5km downhill including some hairpins before the flamme rouge before it flattens out.
The Contenders: the breakaway has a good chance today because UAE want to keep Isaac del Toro as fresh as possible for the finish and EF don’t have the power to torch the stage; Visma-LAB do but will they try? They might aim to send riders forward although today is less of a day for relay riders as there are few flat valley roads to pull.
Picks include Nairo Quintana and Jeferson Cepeda (Movistar), Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS-Astana) plus Romain Bardet (Picnic-PostNL)
Otherwise Richard Carapaz (EF Education-Easypost) is the easy pick, he’s climbing well and this the day to test Del Toro on a series of long climbs but to win means the breakaway is brought back. Simon Yates (Visma-LAB) came up a little short on the Bretonico climb two days ago but we’ll see if that’s his level or just an off-day.
The chances for Isaac Del Toro (UAE) look slim the Mexican faces repeat climbs today but if rivals want to wait for tomorrow and he can somehow stay in contention the flat finish suits. Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull) has a chance as if the break is brought back he’s just climbing so well and can take flight without those higher on GC having to react.
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Carapaz |
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S Yates, Pellizzari, Fortunato, Del Toro |
Weather: warm and sunny. The valley can be windy but it should be a still day.
TV: KM0 is at 12.30 and the finish is forecast for 17.15 CEST.
Postcard from the Aosta Valley
The Valle d’Aosta is the smallest of Italy’s region and also the least densely populated, in part because it’s just so mountainous, it’s hard to live in these places as the many abandoned terraces testify.
It’s one of those places in the Alps that doesn’t take its name from the river, instead the city of Aosta which is up the valley from where today’s stage takes place. It’s notionally an Italian and French dual language region, note the place names like Châtillon and Saint-Vincent rather than Castello or San Vincenzo but Italian is widely spoken.
Can you name a rider from here? It’s not a big cycling region, if only because there are few roads here, it’s often literally up or down the main valley; or the side climbs like today’s course. You can start cycling in this area but it’s expert-level to begin with.
Close to the route today is the small hamlet of Garin. The first Tour de France winner Maurice Garin comes from the valley. The area only joined the Kingdom of Italy in 1861 and Garin was born 10 years later, moved to France, worked as a chimney sweep and won the Tour in 1903; and also plenty more including Paris Roubaix.
If the region hasn’t produced many champions it’s hosted plenty. The Giro della Valle d’Aosta is a mountainous stage race held every summer for U23 riders and because of the terrain it’s selective. Jarno Widar won last year. In recent years the likes of Fabio Aru, Thibaut Pinot, Joe Dombrowski, Dan Martin, Lenny Martinez, Pavel Sivakov have stood on the podium. The results are always worth watching out for. Indeed just under two years ago it was here that Isaac del Toro attracted the attention of teams and an agent.
Is this an omen for Del Toro? Well if you’re superstitious then remember it was higher up the valley, on the Colle San Carlo in 2019 that Richard Carapaz made the decisive attack to win the Giro.
It looks like stage 16 but with the first 40 km lopped off. That should make it a tad easier on the legs but have no idea who that favours.
Am inclined to think that the battle of Mexidor won’t bet settled till tomorrow.
It’s probably harder, the same vertical gain but within 40km less, The climbs are longer and as hard as Santa Barbara was, this Tzecore is just as tough.
Queen stage indeed.
Yes, I was thinking that the first 40 km of stage 16 were flat but they gained 200 m in altitude. Makes it hard for Del Toro.
Tzecore is hard, especially the 3 hard kms are a beast, but not as hard as S. Barbara or S. Pellegrino in Alpe – much depends on how you ride the long easy section before you impact the wall. Deep committed team work would be needed. That said, those 3 kms are terrible, whomever had a moment of weakness would pay big time. It’s kind of a Valcava. Dunno what’s going to happen so far from the line with Finestre loomin’ tomorrow.
Tomorrow’s stage looks so intimidating will the GC riders be saving energy today and ride defensively? That might apply to Gee, Yates, Bernal… but maybe not to Carapaz and Pellizzari, in which case Gee and co will be obliged to follow – if they can! A fascinating stage awaits.
Maybe some moderate testing for weakness, especially in Del Toro, by the GC leaders within range of the overall, especially if they have satellite riders ahead. If they don’t, and/or Del Toro and UAE remain intact, the stage may get shut down early and become fairly benign ahead of tomorrow. That’s often the risk/result with back to back extreme stages.
I’m still hoping that Carapaz and Bernal, as former winners, take a “won’t die wondering” approach and test then attack today, rather than wait until tomorrow. I suspect Gee, Pellizzari and Caruso will be quite defensive – surely they’d have all signed for their current placing at the start, even if podium was a stretch goal for Gee, and won’t risk much.
Yates will be interesting, he carries the scars of 2018 and will be out to atone while wary of a repeat. I doubt he’ll do more than largely defend today.
Then again this being the Giro Storer, Pidcock and McNulty could ease into the early break and become podium on the road with 50km to ride…!
I don’t see why Pellizari would be defensive. As a liberated helper, he has absolutely nothing to lose. If I were Carapaz I would definitely approach him to collaborate in a ‘you get the stage I get pink’ scenario today or tomorrow.
People still talking up Pidcock. He continually disappoints in GT’s. Max Poole showing more desire and ability.
One of the differences is freshness. Before the Giro Poole had only ridden the Tour of the Alps since dropping out of Strade Bianche whereas Pidcock had finished Strade then ridden Tirreno-Adriatico, Milan-SR, Flèche Brabançonne, Amstel, Flèche Wallonne and LBL with decent results in almost all. Pidcock’s team must have needed his presence but that’s hardly ideal preparation for the Giro. He’ll merit a holiday after Sunday!
Carapaz is the stereotypical ‘won’t die wondering rider’ but in any case maglia rosa hopefuls aren’t going to leave it to the last day to go for it – too risky to do that – plus if it doesn’t quite work today, there’s another opportunity tomorrow. And as IR says better to be defending a lead than attacking to try to move into one.
EF don’t have a strong team but they’re relatively more suited to tomorrow’s stage, more have a chance of making it to the Finestre in support than they do today when plenty will be gone by the Tzecore. We’ll see for Carapaz today and how he and others cope with the heat, it’s going to be hot and some of the slopes today especially so
So he did have a go but without looking convincing! So it’s down to the Finestre then.
Tomorrow is tough but comes down to one big climb and its one hour effort. Today could be trickier to manage.
The thing is: would the strong team make a difference in support of Del Toro on a climb as hard as Finestre? Carapaz could expect he’ll be able to get enough time there, he distanced Del Toro on much easier climbs. Sure, there’s the descent + ride to Sestriere.
I am afraid today has the marks of anti-climax in a glorious landscape. I hope to be proven dumb. 🙂
There appears no indication that Del Toro will have a terrible day tomorrow.
It’s done & dusted, as they say.
Nah, today is tougher. Carapaz and anyone with anything left should attack today.
Unusually for the sharp end of a GT a large number of realistic outcomes. I too am inclined to the view that today rather than tomorrow will be decisive.
This attack on Ayuso is clearly organised by Visma-LAB. This is the arrival of biological warfare in pro cycling!
Well spot and said, beta-bug!
One of their bioweapons must have escaped the LAB yesterday, as I too was stung in the face while riding.
I think they tested it in Mallorca last week – I was stung in my helmet.
Is any of the descents technical? If Del Toro is dropped on one of the ascents, I wonder how much he can take back on the way down. I was very impressed with his descending on the stage he won. You could see it long before he was at the front, on the Mortirolo descent, with him sitting up quite casually while the rider before him was in full attack position, yet he had to brake to prevent half-wheeling.
Less so, the way down is often straighter, Saint Pantaléon especially which picks up the main side valley road away from Cervinia (Matterhorn).
Ah, thank you for the information. Descending skills might still become relevant tomorrow on the Finestre, like we saw when Froome took off there.
To reprise the TT helmet in road stage conversation: no stinging insects can get in your ventless aero lid
I’ve got a Lazer Z1 helmet that has a detachable cover, which is marketed as both a ‘rain cover’ and an ‘aero shell’ (presumably to different audiences). Perhaps ‘insect protector’ should also be included? ; )
Excited to see how this pans out, although looks like it would be more selective if the climbs were tackled in the opposite order with Tzecore last, or is that a little reductive of me? Hope that the cumulative effect of those climbs (plus the rest of the Giro) can provide some decent selections.
Out of interest, how much of the stage design for key stages like this is dictated by the organisers and how much is dictated by the hosts for starts and finishes? Is an ideal route planned out and then towns/resorts approached, or vice versa? Or a mixture of both? Seems easy for sprint stages where the preceding terrain isn’t much of a concern, but can be critical for a stage like today’s.
Tzecore penultimate with an easier finale would be the absolute best in itself, but we’ve got tomorrow (and last Tuesday) for that pattern, so even a hard finale as you say would be great, especially as the penultimate hard stage… (they’d be forced to ride hard today at least on the last climb and tomorrow would be a slaughterfest). Sadly, there’s a story of slowly ridden VdA stages…
The course is normally dictated in terms of start and finish town/place with the occasional request to showcase something, but organisers have the last word (Recta Contador… which finally wasn’t). Unless some specific local sponsors do pay extra to have their place as a passing point, which can really affect the route hugely (Grappa stage this year).
Agree the race organisers pick the route. Local politicians are happy to leave it the experts but might want a library here, or a bridge there go feature, other governmental things.
Organisers are often open to local suggestions, a “new” road here or there. Occasionally the local mayor is a cycling fan, in 2018 the route of the Tour stage to the Reims champagne vineyards was drawn with a lot of input from the mayor who suggested all the sharp climbs in the vineyard.
I am continuously amazed and impressed by the density of knowledge casually packed into these posts – local history, geography, politics, cycling history both recent and distant, and the specific race history of the roads and climbs. It would take a grad student a week to research just one stage preview, and the writing would still not be anywhere near the level of INRNG.
I second that! I tried to think of how many years I’ve been reading this blog but couldn’t really land on a timeline. It is part and parcel of my experience of the sport now, and I can barely remember not having it. Thanks IR for your time, efforts, and insights. We are fortunate to have you.
yeah it’s scarily brilliant.
Thanks, just printed that out 😉
It’s always welcome to here thanks, equally any suggestions, criticisms, or just typo fixes welcome too.
I came across the inrng blog about 2016/17 and it was so good I went as far back as I could over time to read all the previous blogs. Long may it continue!