The last chance for the sprinters. When the route came out last year this one had the “watch out if there are crosswinds” label. It still applies in the conditional because the weather forecast looks uncertain.
The Route: 188km and 1,200m of vertical gain as the race rides through arid countryside. A passage through Pézenas to evoke gonzo singer Boby Lapointe and past plenty of rosé wine vineyards.
Look at the profile and there’s a climb to the intermediate sprint but it’s just a long drag up. The categorised climb is not just a côte but a col, a real mountain pass but tiny and on a regular road.
The Finish: the same finishing straight as 2021 when Nils Politt won solo but a different approach, it’s on big big boulevards for the most part but KM5 to KM4 is narrower.
The Contenders: it’s easy to write there’s no hierarchy for sprint previews early in the race then to pivot by the third week into talk of fatigue messing up the order. Still Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) is the obvious pick, fast and he copes fine with the hills and mountains. Likewise Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty).
Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) has a good chance and Mark Cavendish (Astana) just needs an opening again. Jayco rode their socks off on the road to Pau only for Dylan Groenewegen to get ejected on the climbs before the finish, this should suit better. Germans Pascal Ackermann (IPT) and Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain) keep running close but how to get ahead of the riders named already?
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Philipsen, Van Aert |
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Girmay, Groenewegen |
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Cavendish, De Lie |
Weather: sunshine and 30°C. All the write-ups for this stage come with the “sprint stage but watch out for the wind” and the forecast looks as a tricky as picking the winner, one or two outlets say it could gust to 40km/h and from the NW meaning a three quarters tailwind which can shred the race; most say a gentle breeze of 10-15km/h.
TV: KM0 is at 1.30pm CEST and the finish is forecast for 5.40pm CEST. Check for crosswinds during the stage, otherwise tune in for the finish.
Postcard from Gruissan
Do sport and politics mix? The essay answer is frequently, even if participants and spectators alike may prefer otherwise. Today’s stage starts in Gruissan where the mayor is Didier Codorniou, also known as Le Petit Prince for his days as one of the best rugby players in France despite his small stature. He’s proof of sport and politics combined, his notoriety must have helped his early campaigns. He’s not done with rugby either as he wants to become the next president of the French Rugby Federation.
The Tour is now crossing a part of France that has been a stronghold of the National Rally (RN), the rebranded far-right political party that used to be called the Front National until 2018. It’s turned support here into mayoralties, winning cities like Perpignan, Béziers, Beaucaire and Fréjus. Yet, unless keen readers can point otherwise, the Tour de France has yet to have a start or finish in any town or city run by the RN. They don’t run too many places but it’s an oddity.
With the RN gaining more votes than ever, the next round of mayoral elections should mean more mayors. This could impact the race. The rise of environmental politics and Green Party mayors has led ASO to adopt “ecological” policies in order to meet demands of their clients in town halls, with more emphasis on public transport and reducing carbon emissions. What might RN mayors want from the race? A flippant idea would be a “best French rider” competition but that might not be very flattering on current trends. More seriously we can see Italy where the RN’s Italian cousins are in power and the Giro is attracting more interest from politicians, the race features a “Made in Italy” campaign and ministers are showing up at the race and embracing . On second thoughts let’s just look forward to today’s stage…
Nothing brings out the worst belicose nationalistic jingoism then a sporting event but as you say let’s talk sport and a nervy peloton in week 3 with sickness going around might well produce an unexpected winner or two in the dying days of the Tour.
The big question is can Pogacar control himself?
Today’s stage will probably be a fast and furious affair as teams worry about crosswinds with a bunch sprint finale.
Will anyone bother to go in the break? I would think that guys will save themselves for later in the week, so peloton compacto I guess will be the order of the day. With teams going kerb to kerb that means normally trouble with street furniture, women with cardboard signs or guys with mobile phones. Hope everyone makes it to finish unscathed.
Hot weather I see is predicted, so how that goes down with guys already ill will be an extra torment.
+1 robmd. Agree completely. Well said.
I have learned a new phase today ‘bellicose jingoism’ – quite wonderful! As an Englishman who witnesses this everytime a countryman ventures abroad in a sporting context, I shall trot this out regularly. Thanking robmd!
Great name!
Spain won the football, tennis and sailing so it is left to the Tour to produce some glory for northern Europe this week.
Only 11 minutes (currently) to make up! 🤞
How many pure sprinters leave after today.
If i was Jayco i would put mezgec or Matthews plus a helper in the break. Groenewegen is possibly as fast as any other here but he’s probably only had 1 good full power sprint because he’s normally pushed out of position and either having to do extra late or just doesn’t get to sprint at all. This way they don’t have to chase and maybe a late team lunge has the strength to get Groenewegen in good position.
I think there could be some “altitude sickness” among the sprinters. But at the same time finishing the Tour counts for more than any other races and not many sprinters are down to ride the Olympics. Plus there’s the Covid lottery where if Girmay and Philipsen were to fall ill, then Coquard and De Lie stand to take the jersey. In short some riders might want to bail but their management might want them to stay.
Or just staying to be able to say you finished a Tour (or add to a tally of Tour finishes). How many people can say they even started a Grand Tour? Vanishingly few. How many can say they finished one? Fewer still. How many get to say the finished multiple Grand Tours?
Just being there and finishing is a huge achievement.
It is our moment!
and probably Cav’s last ever TdF sprint.
You wonder where he will retire, hopefully not after some melancholic, windswept late-season Belgian 1.1 race. Paris would have been a nice opportunity. Then what next? He’d make a good DS, but too much time on the road for modest pay.
Its a good point. His two most obvious choices – Paris or the Tour of Britain – have been taken away this year. I’m guessing it will be Nice. There’s no other choice unless he does the Vuelta and drags himself to Madrid.
Tour of Britain is being run in September
Yes, was about to say that – it seems the obvious finish for him. I could be very wrong but didn’t Wiggins finish at the ToB too?
If he retires straight away will it open a spot on the roster so Astana can buy in a rider who cam score points.
IR is right (as usual). He would make a good DS. Former team members point to his ability to motivate, organise and get buy-in to a strategy. He would be brilliant at hospitality/media too which could be less a chore if he is present for just a few monuments and TdF. He still has the energy and passion and while old for a cyclist is young in any normal career terms.
Cav is on the team sheet for the Olympics Road Race. Whilst it doesn’t exactly suit him, I think we will at least see him ride in Paris again.
According to the media, Cav’s is expected to have a consultancy role at Astana after he retires.
I think the quotes in the media were along the lines of ‘he’s on the long list but it’s a long shot’. Ie – he won’t get picked.
I bet Visma have got their fingers firmly crossed for the wind to be blowing at 40km/hr rather than something more gentle to see what mischief they can make, although Pog doesn’t seem the sort to be caught out like Quintana used to be.
I agree, the remaining mountain stages are short and this is an opportunity to toughen the race up even if they can’t catch Pogacar napping
I have a gut feel we get a decent break and a crazy race
Just seen this message from a cycling acquaintance: ‘Today’s TdF stage is going to blow to pieces. We are staying just off the course and it’s blowing a gale, with some big gusts’ Fingers crossed!
The forecast is 7-9 knots with gusts of 17-19… while right now the reported speed is about 7, more on the sea.
Damp squib on it’s way!!
Today’s postcard is as picturesque as ever but what struck me were the flamingos. Poor things, perhaps they suffer neck pain just like us road cyclists do.
I was going to comment on this. Wild flamingos… in France?
It’s a step beyond the wild parakeet populations that are in a number of places now. E.g., England and – very noticeably – California (was riding through silicon valley once, and heard this loud chatter of many parakeets, look up and they were lined up all along the front-top of the building to my side). Parakeets you can understand how they get there. But flamingos? No one is keeping them as pets surely? 🙂
And doing some googling, it seems flamingos are _native_ to southern France. Camargue national park apparently is famous for them. LSNED.
Yep, the Camargue is white horses, flamingos and salt.
And black bulls.
Awesome place.
Apparently flamingoes are native to the coasts between the Algarve and the French Riviera. Certainly they’re a famous sight from the (actually not very) high speed train between Nimes and Perpignan.
There are flamingoes on the lake in the cycling hotspot of Calp(e), incidentally. Those were very much white rather than pink when I saw them, although I read that their colour may change during the year.
Just a thought. Is one of the key riders of this Tour someone who isn’t there? Sepp Kuss.
Maybe he’s what Vinny is really missing rather than form.
And Kruijswijk, Van Baarle etc the team is much less stronger in the mountains with Van Aert and Laporte not climbing like last year too. But even if they had all the riders they wanted at 100%, it’d be hard to dismantle UAE. The only times Pogačar has been caught out so far are on the flat. The bigger threat is sadly Covid, the summer spoilsport.
Any idea if teams have been administering COVID booster jabs?
When a positive case can take a big name out of the race and/or mess up preparation for future races, it seems like it should be a no-brainer from a cost:benefit point of view
The jab doesn’t stop you getting Covid, never has.
Indeed, there is a body of evidence (from trial data, through to numerous observational studies) suggesting that in the 2 weeks immediately after a covid jab you are _more_ susceptible to testing positive for covid.
(And the covid tests specifically are formulated to /avoid/ testing for the covid spike sub-protein which the mRNA based jabs cause your body’s cells to produce and express).
My understanding is that teams are only testing after someone reports symptoms anyway.
The generally received wisdom is that even if a booster jab doesn’t stop you getting COVID, it’s very likely to be a milder case if you do.
That bit of generally received wisdom has little in the way of high quality evidence to it.
The evidence is there are strongly diminishing returns to ever more jabs. Given (as with all medicines) they also come with some risk, one should question the wisdom of fit young men – who really are at no particular risk from covid – taking more covid19 shots.
Note, we are all regularly receiving new innoculations anyway – i.e. via infection. With the most recent variant of the virus each time. The benefit of covid19 boosters on top of that is not established, in terms of high quality evidence – not even for older people.
Pogi had covid little before the TDF, which should supposedly grant him at least some immunity for an unspecified and variable amount of time…
The evidence with other hCoVs – from analysis for antibodies in old blood samples from a long-term study of something else in the 90s, in the Netherlands – is a mean time between infections (sufficient to lead to antibodies in the blood) of circa 2 years. Min was about 6 months, max was 8 years.
That was a in a study population with another condition which potentially means they had weaker immune systems than the normal population.
It’s likely to Pogacar’s benefit that he had Covid just prior to the race, as it means he’s probably among the most immune to the current strain going around the peloton.
A specimen of Boby Lapointe : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJksApHi9bU
He was a very funny man. Once someone saw him hit his car saying : “if you continue like this, I won’t give you gas anymore !”
Has there ever been anything like this bonkers MOU thread story that’s going around re Pog? It’s barmy
https://x.com/Tratnikstan/status/1813273846881120693?t=z7B69mJS7xs5jCYZ7JtyPA&s=01
I was following that in real time. Was a highly entertaining couple of months on the ol’ CN forums
How is it possible Philipsen wasn’t relegated? He voluntarily blocked an Uno-X rider to the left, deviating from his line by several meters.
I wondered this myself but rewatched and it seems like the guy behind philipsen blocked/hit the Uno-X rider and that Uno-X guy was not contesting the sprint–he was Kristoff’s last man, wasn’t he?
Still, it did lead to a bit of a scary situation and seemed more than unnecessary.
I hope Girmay can still seal the jersey competition.
It seems like the final day ITT is going to have little influence at this point…
It’s funny, the procession to Paris is usually not a great stage, but this year it would be epic!