What’s Changed Since Last Week?
- One change to the table with Quick-Step going to the top ahead of Jumbo-Visma, otherwise no change in the standings, it’s still Alpecin-Fenix and Arkéa-Samsic up, Lotto-Soudal and Israel-PremierTech down
- Quick-Step, Trek-Segafredo and Astana were the big winners from the national championships
- Movistar did well in the national championships but their scorers don’t make their team’s ten best riders so points won in Brazil, Puerto Rico and Denmark don’t help, they had 0 points
- Among the teams feeling the squeeze, Israel fared well with 154 points, BikeExchange-Jayco took 76 points to pull ahead, just, of Lotto-Soudal with 55, EF Education on 68
It’s still tough for Israel and Lotto-Soudal and Bike Exchange in a duel but EF and Movistar and Cofidis all have to be careful, plus DSM and Arkéa-Samsic have to think about races to pick off this season. The chart keeps showing convergence meaning the Tour de France is going to be twice as stressful although as much as it is the race with the most points of the year, all those smaller races to come can be as lucrative for smaller teams as well given the likes of UAE, Ineos, Jumbo-Visma tend to boss July.
Talking of Tour points, the tables below shows the points for GC in the Tour which goes down to 60th place overall, as well as for a stage win.
There’s also 25 points a day for wearing the maillot jaune and 120, 50 and 25 points for the first three on the mountains classification in Paris, likewise for the points competition.
Looking wider, Bahrain are in the headlines for the wrong reasons after homes of riders and staff were searched by police given international warrants yesterday, a reminder that the top-18 teams can change if a sponsor gets humiliated and pulls the plug; Astana’s finances have been under evaluation too. But this is external to the sporting aspect and teams just have to race on.
Animated bar chart race
Background info
If you’re new to the story of promotion and relegation this year and want it explained then click here.
To see how many points are available in each race or category, click here.
The relegation battle is going to put some extra spice into the TdF sprint finishes with Ewan/Lotto and Groenewegen/BEX up against the less points-desperate Jakobson, Démare and Philipsen. It seems strange that EF (Cort being breakaway rather than big bunch sprinter) and IPT have no sprint contender given that Jumbo, UAE and maybe Ineos are going to be cleaning up the big mountain and TT stage placings.
There will be plenty of spice left for Pologne, the Canadian races, Lombardy, Bretagne and the Vuelta, and no doubt some bitten fingernails too, and probably many tired riders obliged to race to the season’s bitter end.
Démare doesn’t do the Tour, but we could add placings of Coquard, Kristoff, Hofstetter & Capiot, Impey, Dainese & Degenkolb…
Correct for Démare. It had slipped my mind that he rode – with success – the Giro.
For the second division sprinters we can add Pedersen too.
And Matthews for when Groenewegen doesnt get over the hills.
Also Sagan, Trentin, Cort, Stuyven and Van Poppel belong to the group of outsiders for me.
Re Israel / EF and (lack of) sprinters: doesn’t llook too odd a decision to me. If you figure in bunch sprints that the major placings are likely to be dominated by Jakobsen, Ewan, Van Aert and riders like Kristoff, Coquard, Sagan etc snapping on their heels, then there is not much point sending a sprinter to consistently come 7th or whatever in bunch sprints.
Whereas you could have a slightly anonymous Tour in GC terms, but a team getting three riders into, say, 10th, 20th and 30th overall would get over 200 points. Not beyond the realms of possibility that Israel could achieve that with Woods, Fulgsang and Froome, and get more points than taking a second-string sprinter who places regularly in the top 10 – but not top 5 – of bunch sprints. Likewise Uran / Guerreiro / Powless aren’t automatic names when talking about the overall winner of the race, but all three in the top 30 is quite feasible and again would lead to 200+ points for Education First.
TomJ – sadly I think Froome finishing top 30 is well beyond Israel’s wildest dreams, although I would like to be proved wrong. Fuglsang doesn’t have a great 3 week GC record, Woods probably less so. They could just as easily be looking at sweet FA points.
That was me.
I’m struggling to think who EF would bring as their sprinter, who might be the lead out etc. From their startlist, it looks like they’re playing to their strengths and trying to go for stages and get Uran or Powless (or both) as high in GC as they can.
They could go with Magnus Cort for the Green Jersey and the punch-sprints. Not sure he’s good enough to be in the top-3 and get some points though.
If someone of a relegation-team goes into a breakaway with chance of a top-5 or points/mountain classification, would some relegation teams go to the front of the peloton to catch them? Curious to see. Before, having someone with a good GC might ruin your break-away, now the relegation-battle might also have an influence, not sure how far this will go.
Indeed TdF takes all attention but the relegation will be decided elsewhere to start with Pologne, Halmburg, Montréal, Quebec and all those Pro Tour races…
Not only those races will decide.
During the tour, there is another race that could help determine who is virtually safe at the end of the Tour: Sibiu Tour (Romania)
In Sibiu Tour, Lotto, Cofidis and Israel are the only “relegation teams” starting (next to Bora, Astana, Jumbo Visma, Bardiani, Drone Hopper and some smaller teams).
Stages only bring in 14/5/3 so the main focus will be on GC on a non-flat race.
– Stef Cras (334 points) seems to be the guy for GC for Lotto Soudal, with Vanhoucke (110 points) as backup just outside of their top-10 (last racer is Moniquet with 170 points, so he jumps over with top-3, but approaching also has value). The rest barely has points (Selig, Barbero, Malecki, Conca).
– For Israel, Bevin (310 season points) and Hagen (133 points) would be the logical choices. Hermans (13), Berwick (44), Niv (20) and De Marchi (10) are far outside of their top-10 (their lowest score is 99)
– For Cofidis, probably Herrada
From the other teams, I don’t see any big names as GC contenders. With 125/85/70/60/50/40/35/30/25/20/15/10/5/5/5/3(10 times) there are a lot of points up for grabs for GC.
In Wallonia-tour, starting close to the end of the Tour so also having overlap, competition will be bigger with many teams starting, but BikeExchange does not start, nor do Movistar and DSM. Racers eliminated from the Tour could also start here (if they get permission).
Very interesting… this is turning into a great side race to watch.
Fun to see how the entire peloton makes their racing relevant.
Wannes – thanks for breaking out that about the Sibiu Tour, I’ll keep half an eye on that as well.
You’re welcome. Every race is a bit of analysys to get those ins and outs.
There are many points in those smaller races as well. For Sibiu, you need to race 4 days for what you can get in a stage race, but it still remains interesting to do it.
I noticed that last year DeMarchi scored over 400 points in Sept and Oct. (and only 80 prior to August) . The point is, that a lot of things can happen when the teams are this close.
To me, this is a Covid/injury lottery. (As mentioned last week).
I heard some Covid drops from other teams but from those in the relegation competition the first update would be on EF’s Valgren “Valgren crashed on a downhill in Route d’Occitanie last sunday. He had to be lifted back to the road from a ledge close to a 100 metre drop according to reports. No head trauma but a dislocated hip, broken pelvis and possible damage to one knee.”. He won’t be racing for a while. (no start Tour start in his native Denmark).
The Tour of Langkawi could be frantic… if it happens, it’s been postponed twice this season already.
And the race of the falling leaves could be the race of the falling teams.
That is until they somehow get reinstated in the WT or a team or 2 folds so they never leave.
Fun fact: of the squads that started the season in 15th-20th places, Lotto have won the most races, with 19. In fact, they’ve won more than any WT squad except Bora (also on 19) and the Big 4. A lot of .1 and .1 stages though. IWG (thanks to a couple of NCs) are on 15, as are … BEX. So Lotto and BEX are trying, but they’re only really succeeding in the little races.
Hmm. No one’s mention VdP here. He’ll be snatching points.
Because VdP is not in one of the relegation teams. We focus on the relegation here 😉
I see the Maryland Cycling Classic on Sept 4 is getting attention with EF Education, Israel PT & Bike Exchange going hunting for points.
Sibiu update
In Sibiu Tour, Lotto, Cofidis and Israel are the only “relegation teams” starting (next to Bora, Astana, Jumbo Visma, Bardiani, Drone Hopper and some smaller teams).
Stages only bring in 14/5/3 so the main focus will be on GC on a non-flat race.
GC points are 125/85/70/60/50/40/35/30/25/20/15/10/5/5/5/3(10 times)
Lotto
– Stef Cras (334 points) didnt start in the end.
– Vanhoucke (110 points) is just outside of their top-10 (last racer is Moniquet with 170 points), so he jumps into the top 10 with top-3 finish in Sibiu. He is 2nd in GC now.
– The rest barely has points so far this season (Selig, Barbero, Malecki, Conca) and their classification in sibiu is ruined anyway.
Israel
– Bevin (310 season points) didnt start
– Hagen (133 points) lost more than a minute yesterday and is 17th in GC
– Berwick (44) is 5th in GC, and could make team top 10 (their lowest score is 99)
– Piccoli, 11th in GC also still in the running to score some points, that might or might not make a difference at the end. He only has 8 points so far this season, so only if he scores in future races it might really make a difference.
For Cofidis, Herrada didnt start and all the rest wont help the team much and is badly placed in GC.