The big time trial stage, only now without the big time triallist Tom Dumoulin. It’s the chance for Primož Roglič to take the stage and put time into this rivals, and a chance for us to see how his form is holding up.
Ewan’s turn: winning is portrayed as joyous but often for a pro cyclist it’s about relief, a job done and Caleb Ewan showed both emotions with his sprint. The longest stage came down to the shortest of finishing straights and once Ewan rounded the final corner the win he was able to blast past Pascal Ackermann with a muscular sprint, you could see Ewan using all his upper body rather than getting into his characteristic low, forward position.
The Route: 34.8km and all on wide, open roads. After leaving the seaside resort of Riccione it’s 22km to the second time check in Faetano and here the road starts to climb with 5.3km at an average of 6.6% and the slope nudges 8% for the first kilometre, then for the most part it’s regular but a tighter section as it twists through the village of Montegiardino. Once over the top there’s an exposed section of false flats before the slope kicks up into San Marino and a sustained climb of 6% for the final two kilometres.
The Contenders: Primož Roglič (Jumbo Visma) finished so far ahead of the rest in Bologna he’s the obvious pick today. He’s had a crash this week and the burden of being in the race lead but otherwise he’s the clear pick.
Who else can beat him? Simon Yates (Mitchelton-Scott) was close in Bologna but the open flat road section at first could see him lose time but he’s had a quieter first week. Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain-Merida) did a great ride in Bologna but was this based on one uphill dash more than a long time trial.
Bob Jungels (Deceuninck-Quickstep) has been working for his sprinter Viviani but could feature. Otherwise it’s hard to see who might win. Tanel Kangert (EF Education First) can do a surprise, Ion Izagirre (Astana) possibly and Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo). The long climb will be ruinous for time trial specialists like Jos van Emden (Jumbo-Visma), Tom Bohli (UAE Emirates) and Victor Campenaerts (Lotto-Soudal).
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Primož Roglič |
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Yates, Jungels, Izagirre |
Weather: a mix of sunshine and showers and the chance of a thunderstorm, 18°C on the coast and cooler in San Marino.
TV: the finish is forecast for 5.15pm CEST / Euro time. It’s on RAI in Italy, Eurosport across most of Europe and Australia, L’Equipe TV in France and Flobikes and Fubo.tv in the US.
This is it – GC leaders have to lay it on the line and we’ll see what the second week is gonna look like when the racing begins in earnest. I’m excited.
I suspect the gaps will be under 1 minute between the favorites barring the really bad TTers (like Movistar riders). Potential for big upset in either direction of course, but everyone seems relatively tranquilo so far in this race.
Well I should have checked the weather.
Poor campanaerts w a mechanical.
The question now moves to the mountains – if this was weather and TT related, then we’ll see fireworks, but if it is form then most gc riders will pull back and start racing for minor placings/defending instead of challenging for win, which will complicate the fight for first (or could help w/ alliances). Still open, but the structure of the race is being revealed.
I’m still not convinced of Roglic’s ability to sustain his form and recover. We’ll see. Great ride by him regardless, and so happy to see Nibali around a minute down, that bodes really well for him (he’s my pick). If I am being sporting, Yates looked like he was hampered by grip – being as light as he is and not the best handler caused him to pull back to not eliminate himself by injury. I did not see any post stage comments from him though so this is speculation. Mollema looking good as usual, grouped w Nibali on time this bodes well for him if he can have some luck and keep it together, love that guy. And close behind another grouping of gc riders with oomen and carapaz a little further back then zakarin, yates, sky bois and angel trailing.
Some wildcards are interspersed, with Bilbao being best positioned (besides Ulissi of course, never know!) so the fight is still on.
And the rest day wildcard – who will get it wrong and have a ‘porte’ day?
Both Rafal Majka and Miguel Angel Lopez were climbing well in Bologna and are still well enough positioned in the virtual GC to give them a rabbit to chase in this hill in San Marino.
The TT position uses a slightly different set of muscles and Primož looks to have given his Glutes a good bit of tenderising the other day. I wonder if the extra stretch and discomfort might knock a few watts off his potential effort today.
I personally would favour Simon Yates to show well today as its very possible he was measuring his effort last weekend to avoid the weight of the Maglia Rosa
Interesting point about Roglic’s injury.
Assuming he’s been able to sleep well enough since then and all being equal, Roglic took 2” / km out of Yates and Nibali in the opening TT.
If he was able to replicate anything like that performance, we could be looking at a gap between them of between 1.30’ – 1.40’ by the day’s end?
That would be substantial, particularly with the potential to add another 30”+ to that on the final day.
If that were Dumoulin / Froome in that position, it would most likely be ‘goodnight Vienna’.
But we’ll see if Roglic has the durability to see this through. De Plus’ loss looks crucial now?
And Nibali is looking dangerous too.
Intriguing day ahead.
Looking at the chainring ratings make me extra sad with the absence of Dumoulin (and De Plus).
Hope to see a bit of form from Esteban Chaves 😄 but quite happy if he takes this as an extra rest day.
Conti was 2nd in TT in San Juan this year. With the maglia rosa on his back, he might do a good one today.
Interesting to see how well Amador does today.
Campenaerts went well in the worlds, which had a 5km climb – could he not do ok here too?
He’ll do ok for sure, but just hard to see him winning on this course.
He said himself a top 10 placing would be very good already. Anything better fantastic!
What do you think about the chances of the Ineos pair, Hart/Sinkov?
To hang in there? Top 10 a job done, top 5 would be considered a win? Tao seems the better time trailist.
Forecast of a headwind on the flat section. Does that suit the stronger riders and the small riders with a reduced frontal area more?
It will be interesting to see how the climbers in good shape do on a route like this. It doesn’t sound that steep but that’s a fair bit of climbing for the likes of Lopez or Carapaz to take advantage of. Perhaps it’ll be another TT stage where they won’t lose too much time and GC ambitions remain in the foreground? Other than Roglic that is…if he’s recovering okay after the crash…
Carapaz yes, Lopez no…
Hmm, after not having Nibali with any chainrings for the prologue, the same is the case here. In the last GT he rode for GC, he was 3rd in the flat ITT. With a route that suits him, I can only see Yates challenge him for 2nd today, but with Nibali more likely to beat Simon than the opposite.
But then again you also only had him as 6th favourite beforehand, so I guess you think he is getting too old?
Just can’t see him winning today, he should be in the top-10, possibly the top-3 but how to beat Roglič? He’s won mountain time trials before but not ones like this ever before.
I can’t see anyone but Roglič winning today, nor anyone getting within one minute of him. But for the best of the rest, I think it’s between Nibali and Yates.
Interesting to watch how Sam Oomen does today, not riding for Dumuolin opens the race up for him, and he is a handy rider and has stealthy got himself into the Top 10 already.
Don’t think he will win, but could be close to the main GC guys, expect him to still be in Top 10 at the end of today, maybe top 5.
i dunno why people keep tipping ooman for these results. he’s a strong rider, great domestique, and shows well here and there, but come on three weeks against actual GC riders? (no offense to him there, only that the training programs wouldn’t be the same)
he’s totally the kind of guy who will be awesome in the mountains every other or third day, maybe surprise with limited losses in a TT; not like “oh man he’s now TTing and climbing with Yates and Nibali”.
maybe this will be his break out opportunity? i really really doubt it. strong kid, but not GC 10 spot strong.
So there’s been a bit of grumbling about this year’s route (boring etc) and today is going to tell us a lot. I suppose the ideal scenario for the organisers is 5 riders coming into the last two stages neck-and-neck for the most excitement.
But INRNG has rightly said in the past: these days a good time triallist can take minutes in a TT whereas a good climber can only take seconds in the mountains (these days, against the likes of Roglic, Dumoulin, Froome etc) …. which all leads me to feel that today might put a depressing lid on the next 2 weeks.
Not that I’m not super excited about the crazy mountain stages to come … here’s hoping the Gavia stays open to ride
The Giro mountain stages can and have produced very large margins, even amongst climbers – this is in contrast to vuelta or tour stages which are more as you describe.
In the days of Indurain the excitement came from both seeing him decimate his opposition in the time trials, but also if he could limit his inevitable losses in the mountains. It got very dicey with Pantani’s appearance.
I enjoyed his majesterial TT-ing, but the margins in the TT are a lot less so it should keep things tight. Nothing is a given at this stage. It should be interesting to see if Roglic can survive the hammer blows of his opponents.
Simon Yates got dusted!!
That’s going to hurt considering how cocky he was at beginning of the race. He has issues as a leader.
Or with his ‘program’
It’s hard to say if his race is run already. But six minutes is a big ask.
There are many big teams here with strong GC riders who are better mountain climbers than TTers. Lotto Jumbo don’t have a strong roster to protect Roglic. He’s there to be had. The mountain climber teams will work hard to isolate him. It will have its effect down the line.
Oh I totally agree with you there. Roglic doesn’t have this sewn up at all. His team is weak and inexperienced and roglic himself is unproven.
With that being said Yates is out. He needs a miracle to win.
In my opinion Nibali looks to be in the best position. His squad doesn’t need to chase and all he has to do is limit losses to pure climbers as they find places to force roglic to do his own chasing. Roglic for sure will be isolated at least once in a key mountain stage.
Agreed on Nibali, said as much yesterday.
Conversely, however, Roglic (for the time being at least) only really needs to concern himself with any moves that Nibali makes?
Thomas De Gendt is going to give Yates a spicy answer if he asks to come in a breakaway, but it’s going to need something similar to the famous Stelvio exploit for redemption.
It’s Roglic’s to lose now and nostro Vicenzo will bite at his lead every day. We have to expect Yates and other climbers to jump at every uphill finish while the leaders watch each other. This truly is a good situation for i telespectatore
Indeed, it’s hard not to make jokes about him riding like he had full shorts.
But a question: what has happened to Landa over the past couple of years since he’s been with Movistar? Did Sky curse him as he left?
I mean, was he ever really that good? I don’t really see it. He hyped himself is all I see. His results by season and age are in line with a Majka or other mid level guy. He never got better though showed potential.
His results judged on points are best he’s had so it’s not evident he ever ‘fell off’.
Watching races instead of ranking pages (Majka…) can be useful to understand the so-called hype. The guy’s obviously got huge capabilities – and equally obvious flaws (I’m not speaking of TTing). The whole debate has been held since years ago again and again and nothing really new ever surfaced.
So far roglic had a perfect run. Absolutely dominant un tts (especially the hilly parts) and always well positioned. his dtage wins at gts used so far to be in the last week, so can we assume he also probably has got the Stamina for it? Also i would tip carapaz for the podium, climbed very well yesterday.