Do you really want to know who’s going to win? Hopefully we’ll be kept waiting until the final mountain stage and the climb to Alpe d’Huez.
This year’s race is open with four names at the top of the bill and there’s a supporting cast to bring surprises. Here’s the preview of the main names hoping to win the yellow jersey.
Route summary: one for the climbers who have to survive a mini-spring classics campaign in the first week. Are other sports so sadistic? Nobody says Novak Djokovic’s chances of winning Wimbledon are dependent on avoiding a broken arm in the first week. Make it unscathed to the first rest day and the climbers are rewarded with five summit finishes among many mountain stages, all with time bonuses to expand any gaps.
Going for the Tour de France this year is tougher than ever given the rivals in his way, now having Giro in his legs just makes it harder for Alberto Contador as he goes for the rare double. He won the Route du Sud recently too and the concern is he’ll turn stale faster than a baguette left in the sunshine. His name translates as “accountant” but he’ll have to be an economist this July to save energy whenever possible. Contador’s advantaged by his poker skills, he’s mentally tough and is an alchemist capable of turning a setback into a gain over his rivals. This steely side is forged by experience and he’ll take the fight to others in the mountains. His team are solid on paper but we’ll see what they can do on the road; Roman Kreuziger, Ivan Basso and Mick Rogers were almost invisible in the Giro compared to past performances and Rafał Majka missed his opportunities to shine before falling in line for Contador now but could finish high in support.
Chris Froome is back into the winning groove after taking the Criterium du Dauphiné. The margin of victory was small but the manner was bigger as he took the two summit finishes. The same method will be deployed in the Tour as his team pace him for as long as possible before he attacks late on the last climb. He should do well in Stage 1 and can count on the team time trial. Sky are a very strong team. So what will stop him? Some fear accident and he’s untested on the cobbles; he crashed and cracked his wrist the day before the pavé last year. Who will ride shotgun with Froome? In 2013 Richie Porte was almost as good as Froome and sacrificed himself on the chaos of Stage 9 and we’ll see if he’s recovered. Geraint Thomas was strong in Switzerland recently but Wout Poels is the tip to surprise especially as Leo König must be tired from the Giro.
Nairo Quintana is the mystery man. He matched Contador in the Route du Sud after long break from racing but little else is known of his form, we were left looking for clues in his pedal stroke on the climb and his line on the descent. If we go on reputation he’s got it all going for him. El Condor carries the weight of his nation but little else with his 58kg frame and he’s ideally suited to the third week where he proved excellent in the 2013 Tour and the 2014 Giro and this year’s summit finishes suit him just right. He’s solid on the flat, forget the stereotype profiling of the Colombian climbers; in 2013 when the race was blown apart in the crosswinds to St Amand Montrond Quintana was rotating in the front echelon and earlier this year he rode the Dwars door Vlaanderen for experience. Movistar bring a very strong team packed with rouleurs to support him especially in the team time trial but the same locomotives make great help anywhere. Alejandro Valverde is there for support, there are questions over his loyalty but this is likely to bother other teams more than the stoic Colombian.
Vincenzo Nibali is the gambler who roll the dice any time, the guerilla who’ll declare war anywhere. But this style can be his undoing, many times he’s been the catalyst for great racing and to finish the day with little to show. See the Dauphiné where his ride to Villard de Lans was exciting but he didn’t win the stage and duly cracked the next day. Sometimes the aggression pays, often it does not. He had a great day on the cobbles last year and is an excellent descender, he will exploit any terrain he can. He has to, because in a set piece summit finish showdown it’s hard to see him getting the best of his rivals. Of the four I rate his chances the least, it’s not that he can’t win, it’s because he’s the one who has to gamble the most to win and the Tour tends to be the most risk-averse event of the year. He comes with a very strong Astana team who will help him try to turn the tables and Jacob Fuglsang is the lieutenant capable of riding high on GC with him.
The Others
Jean-Paul Sartre once wrote that “hell is other people” and there’s a big cast of others who will hopefully make things infernal for the Big Four. The quartet have well-resourced teams who will try to control the race but while they’re marking each other hopefully others will profit.
Tejay van Garderen nearly made the podium last year and almost won the Dauphiné last month. Wins are rare, his triumph is consistency and regularity. He’s backed by a BMC Racing team that’s built around him with the devotion of squad from the past, a rare sight not to see a Plan B these days. Still 26, he’s got to deliver something soon and ideally he needs a route with a long time trial in order get an advantage over the climbers so this isn’t his dream course. He knows it and has been working on his climbing and starts the Tour lighter than last year and producing more power.
Thibaut Pinot is the other outsider pick for the podium. Like van Garderen he’s lighter and more powerful but is two years younger and more volatile in style. He’s a stronger climber as we saw in the Tour de Suisse with his solo summit finish at the Rettenbach glacier and watching him drop Froome and Quintana in Romandie last May. He’s not the goat-like climber capable of sharp accelerations that you might think but thrives on steadier climbs where can control the power. Once labelled an “anarchist” off the bike for his fun-loving pranks he’s a student of the power meter on the bike and is mastering the media and team leadership too. There’s excitement around Pinot because he’s French and local heroes matter for the Tour but he’s proven he’s belongs with the best based on performance not nationality. FDJ are built around him, they bring sprinter Arnaud Démare but he knows he’ll have to surrender sprint support as Pinot is the priority.
Romain Bardet isn’t getting as much attention as Pinot right now and that’s suiting him just fine. Six months younger than the FDJ rider Bardet is a fascinating subject. Portrayed as a “student” because he’s been sitting university exams he’s worker on the bike who’s gone on self-funded altitude camps in Spain and won’t shy away from giant training efforts. He climbs well and races audaciously. Never say never for Ag2r La Mondiale team mate Jean-Christophe Péraud because his limpet act last summer saw him climb on the podium after tracking Nibali up the climbs, you can’t fluke that but his still using the future and conditional tense to describe his form as if chasing the past summer’s condition.
Joaquim Rodriguez has a course to suit even more than in 2013 when he was matching Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana on the climbs in the third week. Now he’s 36 and this could be his last shot at glory. His career has been a slow version of aerobic class, climbing on the steps of almost every stage race podium going only he’s got no grand tour wins to show as each time someone’s trumped him for first place. As such a stage win and a top-5 position looks more achievable.
Andrew Talansky has been largely forgotten about but a year ago he was almost climbing as fast as Contador and Froome in the Dauphiné but he went on to the Tour, crashed and eventually pulled out in one of those tragic abandons from form part of the Tour’s legend. If a grand tour is about being steady and consistent then team mate Dan Martin has a problem because he’s often exciting and aggressive rather than regular. He’s in good form and would have finished higher in the Dauphiné were it not for a puncture on the stage to Le Bettex. Ryder Hesjedal had a great Giro but doing it all over again 40 days later is a big ask, perhaps he’ll settle into a support role which he’s proved very effective at.
Lotto-Jumbo are another team with three leaders in Wilco Kelderman, Robert Gesink, and Laurens Ten Dam. The lottery-backed team just can’t get a lucky break, win have been scarce this season but remember if this is the ex-Rabobank team they’re way down on budget. Still some things aren’t due to money, take Kelderman crashing in training this week. Together they still for a good team and Kelderman is a classy and elegant rider who was close to Chris Froome and Alberto Contador as they duelled in last year’s Giro after finishing seventh in the Giro.
Bauke Mollema is Trek Factory Racing’s GC leader. A good climber he’s got an impressive CV in terms of stage race regularity with sixth in the 2013 Tour de France, fourth in the 2011 Vuelta and more recently he’s been second in Tirreno-Adriatico, skipping away from the lead group on the main mountain stage. The Dauphiné saw him suffering from back problems but he says this is fixed and everything is go. His problem is that wins are raw, he’s only had four in his whole career. A high GC position is possible. Julian Arredondo should be a useful 1-2, especially on the punchier stages rather than high mountains.
Warren Barguil gets carte blanche. Tipped for the top things take time. He was eighth in the Vuelta last year and could have gone higher if he played it steady rather than trying early attacks on the climbs only to get reeled in and overhauled. But that’s his style and it’s good to watch. He’s coming into form and is still just 23 so this is a Tour of discovery.
Pierre Rolland is another for whom Christmas came early when the route was announced last year. The climber was fourth in the 2014 Giro. Even if this year’s route suits him he’s still going to suffer in the opening stage and Europcar could lose minutes in the team time trial which makes him the fourth of the French Four after Pinot, Bardet and Barguil. All this gives him room to attack so a stage win and the mountains jersey seems more appropriate than a podium place. With his team’s future up he’s already been making plans by appointing an agent, until now he’d managed his contracts himself.
Orica-Greenedge bring the Yates twins. Simon seemed the better in the Dauphiné and has the experience of starting the Tour last year but Adam has last year’s Vuelta to count on. For them just tracking the main riders and learning is what matters, we’ve already got proof of their talent and they’ll shine.
Rui Costa leads Lampre-Merida. The Italian team always look more interested in the Giro and in recent years have been one of those teams you forgot were in the race until race radio crackled with the annual “Cunego en difficulté” announcement. The Portuguese champion was third in the recent Dauphiné and beat Nibali to the stage win in Villard de Lans, he’s a wily rider who might be limited in the very high mountains and straight summit finishes where it’s hard to see him trouncing the likes of Froome and Quintana but imagine a mountain stage with a downhill run to the line, he could easily take a stage win and finish in the top-10.
Etixx-Quickstep’s Rigoberto Uran looks set to ride steady but in a team built around Mark Cavendish he has the look of rider left to fend for himself; perhaps he should go for the mountains jersey. We know he can finish seventh but can he shake things up? Michał Kwiatkowski could be the first week hero given he can time trial fast and zip up the Mur de Huy like a rat up a drainpipe. But as his team manager Wilfried Peeters said the Pole’s legs are “too big” for the high mountains and this year’s route doesn’t help.
Finally a few more names. Cofidis’s Dani Navarro can ride into the top-10 with a good final week but his biggest mountain to climb is the opening week where the time trials and pavé could leave him languishing in the valley of despair. IAM Cycling’s Mathias Frank is a good climber with some podium finishes in stage racecs but hasn’t finished a grand tour since 2012 but if the stars align then he could finish in the top-10 too. Bora-Argon 18’s Domink Nerz is Germany’s stage race talent and being nurtured after his 2013 Vuelta where he was making the top-10 in the final week’s mountain stages. MTN-Qhubeka bring the exciting Eritreans with Merhawi Kudus the best climber but Louis Meintjes already a more proven prospect with Stephen Cummings a very consistent rider too. Eduardo Sepulveda is Bretagne-Séché’s GC rider and he’s got a big engine in a small frame and has proved excellent in smaller stage races but translating this promise into something concrete in the Tour is a big ask, the most team – the smallest budget of the race – would sign for a top-20 and the jersey on TV.
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Chris Froome, Nairo Quintana |
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Alberto Contador |
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Vincenzo Nibali |
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Thibaut Pinot, Tejay van Garderen, Joaquim Rodriguez, Romain Bardet |
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Rui Costa, Mollema, Valverde, Uran, Talansky, Kelderman, Poels, Fuglsang, Rolland |
Conclusion
Four riders look so close we need a photo finish to tell them apart on the start line. In the bid to spot the differences Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana just get the nod ahead of the others. Both are fresh and able to take the crucial summit finishes. Froome reassured in the Dauphiné to put him ahead of Quintana. Alberto Contador’s chances are discounted slightly, no matter how strong his mind or his track record may be the Giro could be too much but this is a matter of degree, close your eyes and you can see him on the podium in Paris. Vincenzo Nibali needs to take risks to win which means things could go wrong but he’ll be good to watch. Thibaut Pinot and Tejay van Garderen look like the best of the rest but there are many more to watch.
Who will win? Nobody knows and the only certainty is that the next three weeks will turn open chances into an indisputable order.
Who Will Win The Green Jersey?
Who Will Win The Mountains Jersey?
I’m not sure that opening photo will be topped all Tour, fantastic.
They all look pretty relaxed apart from Quintana who has the look of a man not sure what is going on.
Great preview INRNG (as always). I think Contador can do the double.
CF should not wear baggy shorts !
Ha! Too right he shouldn’t – but I feel his pain. If I wear regular cut jeans (say, Levi 501s) my legs disappear in them and they flap about like I’m wearing a marquee. Not a good look at all.
It looks like a photo from a really terrible school trip.
Trouble is, they’re not baggy.
The spectators will win! It’s going to be a fantastic Tour!
Your Cunego comment made me laugh too (only through the pain of all those lost bets down the years).
Taut and concise preview, and very bold to clearly pick a winner(s). Assessing the riders based on known form seems like the smart way to analyze it. I like the insight to their riding and personality strengths too – a very solid preview.
Any picks for winners are because convention dictates it and it would also be rude to say “I have no idea” and leave it at that. Reality and surprises will change things and that’s all the fun.
As an interesting British sub plot, I’m looking forward to seeing how Geraint Thomas does this year.
I think he can go top 6.
It seems as if Team Sky will be pushing him to make a decision on his future career progression, so I feel that this year’s Tour will be an important step for him.
If the rumours are true that Kwiatkowki is joining Team Sky next year, that sows up the Spring for them.
With (allegedly) Porte leaving for BMC, the way is open for GT to go GC !
Froome win, GT in top 6 would be fantastic.
Think you’re wrong. For one, he’ll be laying it on the line and doing the job of someone like Kiriyenka on the lower slopes. Second, I think he knows he’s not a GC rider over three weeks, despite what Brailsford says. I’d be delighted to be proved wrong.
This is true, I fear “G” is still too much of a jack of all trades rider, and is genuinely too heavy for the high mountains. He’s a powerful rider who would be used as the lead man for the lower stages of a climb or setting tempo on the front on the flat.
Sorry, that was moi just above.
Beautiful!
Much as I agree on Poels being the one to spring a surprise, I think he will be the superdomistique this year to the detriment of his own GC. His form in the Dauphiné was brilliant, good to see, hope someday he will get a Sky-sanctioned crack at a GT, maybe Vuelta?
(think INRNG was saying he’ll play superdomestique? the Ritchie Porte role, not a GC surprise)
Genuinely have no idea who will win although I don’t fancy Nibali out of the big four (as long as at least some of the others manage to remain upright).
It’s such a rarity for it to be so open – I just hope we see the fight we all want to see.
I’d like to see Contador win – for the double – but I think Froome might pip him as he’ll be less tired. Quintana is still somewhat unproven and his big weakness – as Cadel Evans said – is his ability on the flat: he can be dropped in a crosswind, etc. more easily than any of the others. With his poor TT ability – he lost over 2.5 min to Uran in the 2014 Giro TT (42km) – it could be now or never for Quintana.
I think Movistar recognise just that point on Quintana and that is why they have put 3 national time trial champions in the team with him. So if he is dropped on the flat they can pace him back into contention
Alberto. He’s the greatest Grand Tour rider alive today. Can’t believe he’s not the outright favourite. Froome and Quintana may be refreshed but that’s no help if you crash.
wowzers – madness – obvs he’s good but look at the evidence of last 5years? – don’t think anyone has him as the favourite and wouldn’t even if he hadn’t done the Giro – plus hard to buy his pre2010 results under Bruyneel & w/clenbutenol result – so best of the era is a bit dubious….
*((as an aside – I believe Cadel Evans results, if you look at all those he was beaten by who later tested positive, he’s by far and away the best of the last generation. I may be naive though))
Anyway – personally I don’t buy Contador’s double tilt – think he knew he’d find it tough beating Quintana/Froome so winning the Giro and having the double as an excuse was his get out of jail free – although obviously being able to win the Giro is amazing in itself and he is special.
But even if you argue it wasn’t the real Contador in 2013, I think he knows Froome and now Quintana have been a level above for a while – when he matched Froome in Dauphine 2014 not sure that would have continued through the tour and in the high high mountains and he really did only match, not beat with Froome attacking early riding solo and testing rivals more than anything. The 2014 Vuelta may be my arguments downfall, but it clearer wasn’t the real Froome (the TT being the tell-tail sign) but even a wounded Froome wasn’t flippin far off, unlike C in 2013 TDF. Then finally 2015 Ruta Del Sol, when again they close, but Froome was on a different programme….. and still won…..
In counter – Contador is obviously the best recoverer & bluffer – in this regard he’s got Fragile Froome’s number. And tactically he’s clearly the best rider – but if you look at all his victories since 2011, it’s always been against slightly weakened fields *(ie not people in the TDF on their A-game) and even then he’s won on clever tactics rather than blitzing the opposition a la the pre-doping ban era Contador.
This tours should be Quintana’s anyway dependent on first week – although think Pinot will surprise people.
Contador has simply never got close to the level he last showed at 2011 Giro……
D
Maybe Alberto has changed his diet since then? And maybe his butcher gets less visits these days.
Contador is not the rider he was, as you say – and probably for the reasons you give – but Froome still only has one GT to his name, so we can’t say which is the ‘real Froome’. Also, whose injuries were worse in last year’s Vuelta? Hard to say.
Hold on there Tom, a year ago didn’t Bertie Accountant crash himself?
Eddie merckx is still alive . think you mean still competing
Excellent preview as always, I don’t know how you do it!
Useful for my fantasy TdF team… can’t decide which (or none) of the Yates brothers I should put in… This has confirmed by thoughts Poels is a strong addition
Simon is the stronger climber so far.
Great writing, I think you’ve just doubled the excitement of the next 3 weeks for me in the last 10 minutes.
Will they get to week 3 unscathed for a grand showdown? Will the secret pro’s concerns about Astana climbing speeds in the Giro get substantiated? Can Bertie get through another 3 weeks, will he ‘jour sans’ after the 2nd rest day, or will the Giro scar his ability to go deep like it did to Tony Rominger? Can NQ step up after his 24 month ‘apprenticeship’? Or can Froome show the 100thTDF wasn’t his one-hit wonder?
Just a couple missed words or typo’s you may want to check: Under TJV-G “Wins for come rarely, his triumph is consistency…” seems to need an extra word (a ‘him’ perhaps) or a ‘may’ in place of ‘for’. And under JCP “… his still using the future and conditional tense to describe his form as if chases the past summer’s condition.” seems to need “….form makes it seem as if he still chases last summer’s” or “…form suggests he still chases…”
The Secret Pro has already voiced his concerns in a very non-secret manner – and now faces legal action from Aru.
If TSP has proof, he should provide it to the authorities – without that, he’s just one more random person casting aspersions.
(Doesn’t mean he’s not right – just that it’s pointless and counter-productive.)
Great to see the big 4 all together!
Can’t help but think the number of summit finishes towards the end plays in Quintana’s hands. He has looked imperious in the past on the steep stuff.
I’m hoping for lots of jersey swapping, Nibali gambling frequently and an animated race. It has potential to be the best tour in terms of the GC battle in a long time.
How about Majka? Would he be allowed to ride his own race – given this is his grand tour of the year and he has a proven track record?
He’s said he’s backing Contador now. He was given room in earlier races but went in over-trained. We’ll see, riding next to Contador is one way to finish high on GC anyway and he could be a useful foil. But the time bonuses mean if a team leader feels capable of a stage win they’ll want the accompanying extras too.
thanks for the preview – only topped today by seeing someone in an INRNG jersey cycling around Swiss Cottage Roundabout in London this morning
I completely agree with Inrng’s rankings at the end of this great piece: Froome or Quintana will win – with the proviso that they stay on their bikes of course (something both have been unable to do in the past). Bertie Accountant (as I will now always call him) will be too tired in week 3 and Nibali, last year’s runaway winner, will have that win properly contextualized by not even making the podium.
The rest are also rans.
agreed. aside from Pinot & TJ who are looking very good and could make podium.
TJ is clearly a level below Froome as was proved by the Dauphine which many people seem to think speaks in his favor. I don’t. I think it proves he still flatters to deceive and can’t bring it when it counts. Froome effectively beat TJ having given him a head start.
The likelihood that Nibali will win is low due to the pressure of the past year i.e. time commitments, and the number of strong contenders. That should not take away from last years win, as Frrome not winning in 2014 does not diminish his 2013 victory. Froome went in to the Tour last year looking a bit ragged which was attributed to the work required of a Tour champ.
Great preview – thanks.
Couple of typos you may feel inclined to correct:
Chris Froome – winning groove (not grove)
JC Peraud – his (not him) limpet act
Could a subtitle to your analysis be “Who will make the top 10 at the TdF?”
Winning is one thing, the top 10 is a fascinating battle as it unfolds amongst more players and with greater complexity.
The typical, and untypical, difficulties of the first week may well overshadow whatever form the favorites bring with them. A bobble on a cobble and the Tour could turn for some and be over for others.
Still, INRNG, you’ve done a masterful summary!
I see Voeckler thinks that bonus seconds will make attacks from the likes of him harder to survive. I think he might well be right.
Bonuses can sometimes make for more exciting finishes, but they also deter GC riders from going on longer attacks, as you can wait for a sprint finish and still take good time.
I think not only do they make the result less ‘pure’, as it were, they make for more formulaic racing, as no-one risks attacking until nearer the end. We’ve seen this in the Vuelta in recent years.
Cavendish, meanwhile, is ‘more relaxed’ about this Tour – no wonder with Kittel out. He’s in a great position to add to his tally of stage wins.
The race organisers have certainly set up the stages beautifully though, there are opportunities for the breakaways apparent.
Particularly on Bastille Day !
Cav’s major problem is that there are so few genuine opportunities for him though. Many of the touted “flat” stages have an uphill finish that will turn the result more in favour of Kristoff/Dege/Sagan. For example, the stage finish at Le Havre is called a sprinters stage by many but I couldn’t see Cav winning it. If stage 2 suffers from wind, as it should, that may ruin a sprint finish too. It could be stage 6 before we have a proper sprinter’s stage. There will be few chances in this Tour for sprinters to get it wrong and still win. They need to execute immediately.
There’s been a fair amount of commentary both here and elsewhere that somehow Nibali last year and Wiggins in 2012 won their Tours sort of by default due to a lack of serious competition. There is much to this argument as in certain instances a rider can certainly benefit from a weak or tired field (Chris Horner’s 2013 Vuelta win to cite but one example), but if we’re going to be honest about this, it’s time to add another name to this list of “guys who won but not by beating the best”; Nairo Quintana.
Consider the top 10 of the 2014 Giro. Already absent were Contador, Froome and defending champion Nibali, so if you accept the received wisdom of the current “fab four” then this field is already sub-par, but let’s look further to see who he managed to overcome in order to take home the pink jersey and so much moist-eyed praise as cycling’s greatest climber. Second was Rigoberto Uran, a solid GC rider, but one with weaknesses (plus who was on the wrong side of tricky little manoeuvre atop the Stelvio but that’s a debate for another time) and third was Fabio Aru, then aged 23 and riding his second grand tour. Elsewhere in the top 10 you have Pierre Rolland, Dominco Pozzovivo and Robert Kiserlovski, the sort of guys you’d expect to see padding out a top 10 without ever threatening the podium, Rafal Majka and Wilco Kelderman, like Aru, probably more names for the future as both are still quite young. Lastly, you have Cadel Evans, along with Contador arguably the Grand Tour talent of his generation, but a couple of years past his prime, and Ryder Hesjedal, another who probably benefited from light competition on his way to victory in 2012, but who in 2014 was also cursed by bad luck, notably in two of the time trial stages.
What about his second place in the 2013 Tour de France? Same story really. Quintana finished over 4 minutes down on Froome, and even his stage win and mountains jersey came only because the Sky rider knew he’d already won so let him ride off (plus Froome was docked time for an “illegal” feed on Alpe d’Huez). Third was that 21st Century Poulidor, Purito, like Uran another guy who can light up races but will probably never win a GT. Then it was an off-pace Contador in his annus horribilis along with his super domestique, Kreuziger. Valverde could have been a contender had he not lost over 10 minutes in the stage 13 crosswinds (and likely would have remained Movistar’s leader for whom Quintana would have been expected to sacrifice himself in the mountains), and the rest of the top 10 is made up of more solid but unspectacular riders who no one ever foresaw standing atop the podium in Paris: Mollema, Fuglsang, Navarro and Talansky.
So in summary I’m not saying Quintana is a poor rider, he isn’t, he’s a huge climbing talent and consistent over three weeks, but it seems disingenuous of cycling fans to somehow tarnish grand tour wins by Nibali, Wiggins etc as of lower quality due to major rivals being either absent or below par while letting the Colombian off the hook. Bring on the next 3 weeks.
Bravo. I can’t really fault the analysis but I expect lots of whataboutery to come your way now. Quintana certainly didn’t win the Giro against the best of the best.
Thanks, I expect opprobrium for having the temerity to speak ill of the golden child, but I just think fair’s fair, and criticism should be balanced and fact-based.
I agree with you completely and have long been saying the same thing: not saying he’s not good, just that he’s unproven as a great and yet is touted as one.
Your point is valid, but that is what is going to make this next tour so exciting (if they all stay upright, which is doubtful). We’ve never seen all “the Fantastic Four” against each other in top form, so they are all relatively unproven against each other.
I’ve been watching some of the Vuelta 2014, and wouldn’t you know it, on the first uphill finish Quintana lost 10+ seconds after being paced by Valverde (who went on to win, followed immediately by Froom and Contador).
That was a straight line climb too, no tricks, no crazy gradient. It was a bit on the short side (hence Valverde winning).
And that was with both Contador and Froome on suspect form after crashing out of the TdF. Quintana on the other hand rode according to his season plan.
So I very much agree, I think the jury is still out on him.
Looks like I’m taking a contrarian viewpoint on here again.
I don’t think all of the big four will go through 3 weeks without at least one of them being affected by illness, injury or crashes. Not all of them will make Paris and its a guess which of them it might be.
I’m still going for contador to do the double, and for me nibs is coming into form at the right time. Froome did not impress me at the dauphine, why was the so close and the one time nibs was bothered he was off up the road. What were sky doing letting nibs, piti and Costa go up the road? Froome must be praying it’s not going to rain but seeing as it’s currently 39 here in France does he like it hot? As for nairo who knows what he might do there is not a lot to go on. For me pinot looks good, two big mountain wins in romandie and Switzerland.
So for me its 1 contact 2 nibs 3 pinot
But really the big disappointment is no Gilbert, was looking forward to a Gilbert piti battle on the mur de but.
The first week could be mad, then there are some big descents in the mountains where Quintana and Froome could be put under pressure. So I know what you mean.
Surely Froome cannot be cursed with such ill luck again though !?
But the way that this racing season has panned out so far, something is going to happen !
Should be mur de huy of course so many typos! Kinda like the idea of mur de but though
Frank, you praise Pinot for 2 mountain stage wins and then denigrate Froome for winning a whole race (in which he took 2 mountain stage wins). Might you be being a little biased in your judgment? Winning races is more impressive than winning a couple of stages. Pinot has never yet shown he has what it takes to win a an actual race.
As to if Froome likes it hot or not, well, he was born in Africa and lives in Monaco. I’d guess he is not shy of the sun.
I believe that there’s a universal edict that states, “If you’re a fan of Alberto Contador, you can’t like Chris Froome by law.”
I’m not saying that pinots going to win just to do well and maybe finish higher than some of the big four. It seems a course for him, plenty of climbing and not too much tt.
Froome does not seem to be the froome of 2012/2013. Yes, he won the dauphine but wasn’t that on bonifications? You might call that racing canny but froome of 2012/13 would have crushed tjvg, unless of course tjvg has got a lot better than in the past. The comment about the sun was of course tongue in cheek given froomes apparent under performance in the rain. I can see him being two minutes down after the first week and then what are sky going to do, movistar, saxo, and Astana will not roll over.
BTW just come across an article on stickybottle that claims sky are linked to betting in contravention of uci regulations. I don’t think it affects the way they race though.
gotta say I like Nibali’s allround ability, bike handling, coolness under pressure, freshness, team (well I don’t like them, but they are strong…). I hope he sticks it to the skinny cimbers on the cobbles, in the wind, on rainy descents etc… he’s won all 3 GTs so has nothing to fear…
I almost don’t want this race to start, such is the range of possibilties that could play out… the anticipation is sublime…
Not entirely related to this, but does anyone know how they choose the bib numbers? I know the top three from last year take the tens, twenties and thirties and the Continental teams are at the end but how do they pick the others? I thought it was in order of best finisher in last year’s Tour but it doesn’t seem to be that…
That top picture looks like the least scary gang ever.
Has anyone noticed how both Froome and Quintana have not said each other as top favourite – each cited Contador, and Quintana then threw in Nibali also without mentioning Froome….
*(I’m going from Froome’s Times interview a week ago and Quintana’s pre race interview today)
Guess it’s for a reason as surely they’re (even in each other’s minds) the outstanding favourites?
Obviously the Tour isn’t just the last 10days, (which is great for us with Nibali and Contador likely to attack in those days), but in a perfect world for both Froome and Quintana, I guess they’d be aiming to go into the back end of the tour on vaguely level pegging to fight it out in the mountains.
In this scenario on the last few years evidence, most people would expect it to be a pretty direct face off between them with Nibali and Contador climbing behind and going for slightly desperate decent attacks.
They must surely know that and it’s funny that neither is willing to put the other as their most direct competitor – don’t believe Froome for a second with his “Quintana doesn’t have a kick I can follow” chat, and likewise Quintana fearing Nibali ahead of Froome.
Anyway…… as above I still think Pinot will surprise and climb with Froome/Quintana, it’s just whether he’s lost too much in the TTT.
Penny for your thoughts.
T
Great review as always,
Nice contribution Augie and all.
We so agree that for three weeks this summer the best road riders in the world will be in a battle royale.
some will falter, some will not finish. We are bound to witness some epic stages.
Oh what fun.
Superb writing, Inrng, some classic lines. Thanks for your efforts.
I am not counting El Pistolero the number cruncher out, by any means.
And I agree with the comment above stating that out of the big four, at least one may not make it to Paris.
As the saying goes, “That’s why they play the game.”
Going to be a great tour.
Notice in the photo of the big four that each of them is leaning on something- active rest- marginal gains:)
Fantastic preview, Inrng.
My gut feeling says Contador doesn’t double up but I sincerely hope I’m wrong. Also enjoying the positivity surrounding Pinot and the French riders in general.
Most years, after the excitement of the Classics and the Giro, I’m usually a bit weary by the time the Tour arrives but I feel this years edition will be a cracker.
It’s quite funny to read all the “it was against the best” stuff. It nearly never is. And, as someone pointed out, the hope to see something like that as a premise (or promise) in the 2015 Tour is what is making the wait that special.
Froome won the 2013 Tour against Quintana and Contador, but the former was a Tour deb (!) and the latter was arguably in one of his worst form ever. That is, if last year’s Vuelta wasn’t “the true Froome”, still he was way nearer to his “true self” 😉 than Contador during the 2013 Tour.
And so on, and on, and on…
As for “pre” and “post” Contador, don’t forget we’ve seen an impressive Contador performance-wise also in 2011 and 2014 (Ti-Ad to start with).
1. Lo Squale
2. Mr. Q
3. Berti
Froome will most probably crash out.
Just what I saw in the crystal ball.
Enjoy the show!
Quintana looked relaxed as he shadowed Contador at the Route Du Sud. The last time he raced to win, he rode away from Contador, Pinot, etc at Tirreno.
El Condor, El Pistolero, The Shark of Messina, Purito, The Green Bullet, er… Crash-Froome, or maybe Froome-Dog if you’re being generous.
#Excited
I’m rooting for Quintana because I like him best (and think he’s very well capable of pulling it off). I applaud Contador for his attempt at the double. I hope Nibali gives another demonstration on the cobbles like last year and forces the others to attack him in the mountains. But deep down I think Froome will beat them all. I also hope, but don’t think, that neither of them will crash or have other bad luck and we get a showdown on the Alpe.
Keyboard warriors the world over have no idea who is going to win!! ha ha place your guesses.
Yep, absolutely. A guess just a bit of fun. Only the road will tell.
And as only two of my predictions have been right this year so far ( piti to win fleche and sir Brad to break the hour but not win Roubaix) what the hell do I know anyway?
Hey Mr Inner, or Mr Ring. Shall I set up an inrng league on Velogames…just for fun. Say yes and it shall be done
I predict the worst, crash-filled week in Tour History, I’m sorry to say. Hopefully, this will lead to meaningful changes in rider safety. It’s really gotten out of hand!
Only one of the big 4 will finish the race. Nibali wins again…
Too excited to see Chris Froome perform <3