Tour de France Stage 4 Preview

Crosswinds, the Ardennes and now it’s time for some cobbles in the North of France. The Tour de France continues its tour of the spring classics.

Fabian Cancellara is out with a broken back, others left the race too and all before today’s stage, the most feared of them all.

Stage 3 Wrap: You could tell thing were nervous because the day’s breakaway of no-hope was being kept on a tight leash. Serge Pauwels made it to Heist where apparently he wins a car as the first Belgian, presumably it’s a getaway car.

The four were close to being caught halfway through the stage rather than left dangle until late in the race. As the bunch sped along a huge crash at speed in a long straight piece of road brought down many, FDJ’s William Bonnet. Tom Dumoulin, Dmitry Kozontchuk, William Bonnet and Simon Gerrans abandon.

There’s never a good time to crash out but there are terrible moments, think of Lieuwe Westra crashing on the Champs Elysées in 2013 instead of finishing. Now Dumoulin had a good chance to take yellow today. A second crash followed two kilometres later, this wasn’t on TV but race director Christian Prudhomme later explained the crashes overwhelmed the two medical car and four ambulances. While the medics did triage the race director and commissaires did not want to continue without medical support so the race was stopped. It resumed briefly with Team Sky surging on the front but was then halted and Sky got a heckling from others. Not that they were alone, even when the race was halted riders from many teams could seen filtering past race vehicles, even when the race was stopped they were fighting for position.

The neutralisation was the right thing to do and the brief pause didn’t change the tactics nor the outcome of the day. The racing resumed. On the Côte de Cherave we saw Rafał Majka working hard to thin what was left of the race, proof he’s riding for Contador with no hope of a high GC place for himself.

Joaquim Rodriguez

Up the Mur de Huy and most of the big name were in contention with the exception of Thibaut Pinot who was chasing, apparently stunned by the crash of his team mate Bonnet. Chris Froome surged with Contador on his wheel but it was Joaquim Rodriguez who timed things right to win the stage. Dan Martin surged late and was possibly the fastest up the climb but there’s no Strava prize, just the penalty of struggling for position. Many others did a good time too. Fabian Cancellara rode up despite two broken vertebra which have ruled him out of today’s stage.

Chris Froome now takes the yellow jersey. Given Rohan Dennis’ and Fabian Cancellara’s misfortune’s he might have slept nervously tonight ahead of the cobbles. Still, he’s now got a buffer on many rivals, the Mur de Huy a brick in the wall of his GC bid. Already the top-10 is spread over a minute, the top-20 over two minutes and we’re only three stages in. Tony Martin is just one second off the lead. Team Sky would probably surrender the yellow jersey if it could be engineered that Tony Martin could take it without Froome losing time to anyone else.

The Route: 223.5km and the longest stage of the race., the race tackles the magnificent citadel of Namur with its cobbled hairpins into the castle. It’s scenic but the flat terrain resumes as the race heads for French soil. Literally so given the cobbled farm tracks.

There are cobbles but this isn’t Paris-Roubaix, a 250km race with 55km of cobbled sectors. Today’s stage is long at 223.5km, enough to provoke fatigue and slow reactions but there are just 13.3km of cobbles. 13.3km too much for some but the sectors are not too fierce. The race takes the Paris-Roubaix sectors in the opposite direction (Roubaix-Paris if you like) and several are slightly uphill and therefore slower and not as wild.

However these the strategic points of the stage. We’ll see teams thundering into position and paradoxically the approach can be a lot more dangerous than the cobbles themselves as riders crowd the road. There’s no master strategy to the day, the more a rider is at the front the more likely they’ll make it to the finish with others and teams with several options like Etixx-Quickstep will try to take stock after each sector.

The Finish: no velodrome finish but instead in Cambrai the race rides through the turn and there are two 90 degree left hand bends in the final kilometre and the road rises to the line, enough to click the gears one or twice and then come some cobbles. These are urban but not the modern variety, instead they’re rough and polished by passing traffic.

The Contenders: who can cope with the cobbles and then deliver a sprint on a slight uphill incline? Answer John Degenkolb and Peter Sagan. Both are in form and had a good time trial on Saturday. Sagan made the front group on Sunday while “Dege” has the better team around him, or at least they’ll ride 100% for him while Tinkoff-Saxo are all in St Bernard mode as they escort Alberto Contador across the cobbles.

It’s another chance for Mark Cavendish. Etixx-Quickstep have several options with Michał Kwiatkowski and Zdeněk Štybar while Cavendish can sit tight. Alexander Kristoff has had a discreet Tour so far but the finish is ideal. André Greipel is in excellent form and has converted from needy sprinter to hungry man, at ease in the echelons and busy on the cobbles.

As for the pure cobbled specialists, they’ll be hoping for more carnage. Their problem is they need the race to be wild and chaotic to make it to Cambrai without the sprinters but the same volatility can equally take them out in a crash or a puncture. Besides in the dry the stage won’t be so random. So Sep Vanmarke, Filippo Pozzato, Luca Paolini or Stijn Devolder have the odds against them, even if the first two are quick finishers in a small group. Geraint Thomas was second on the pavé stage in 2010 but will likely be on duty for Chris Froome.

Among the others will Arnaud Démare take his chance? Cofidis’s Florian Sénéchal is a big talent in search of a win too. Perhaps the best Frenchman is Tony Gallopin, Monsieur Versatile, who can track Rodriguez up the Mur but also sprint on the cobbles.

Vincenzo Nibali will be worth watching. They said his 2014 win was built on the cobbled stage, can he regain time?

Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb
Alexander Kristoff, André Greipel, Mark Cavendish
Vanmarcke, Sénéchal, Štybar, GVA, Boasson Hagen, Navardauskas

Weather: a headwind and the chance of a shower, top temperatures of 24˚C. If there’s rain it’s likely to be just enough to fix any dust to the ground rather than creating a Woodstock mud festival like we saw last year.

TV: the cobbles come thick and fast from 4.15pm Euro time onwards with the finish expected for 5.20opm.

It’s live on so many channels including, a first, China this year. It’s on Eurosport too and if all else fails you can rely on Cyclingfans and steephill.tv for links to feeds and streams.

93 thoughts on “Tour de France Stage 4 Preview”

  1. Wow what a stage 2. Thanks INRNG for your great work

    Can we all agree to a little less coffee before posting!

    Game on, stage 3

  2. Carnage, and more carnage. It was scary the way they fell at full speed. Tour organizers should re-think whether it’s a good idea to put the Ardennes and cobbles in the first week when everyone is jittery and nervous already even without such seriously adverse conditions. This is supposed to be road cycling, after all, not Swedish derby racing! We don’t want to see the best cyclists in the world being taken out this way!

    • The crash was on a straight, it wasnt affected by anything purely characteristic of cobbles or the Ardennes. Even if your argument is that they crashed because they were jostling for position before the climb – this would necessitate the removal of all climbs apart from Tour of Oman-wide climbs.

    • The first week of the Tour is always carnage. It doesn’t matter what terrain they put in, the racers will be jittery and nervous regardless.

    • Doesn’t matter if it’s cobbles or hills — it’s a race and riders will always be racing for the next obstacle in front of them, or whatever they see will give themselves an possible advantage or springboard. The reason is not the course, but because it’s the Tour de France.

      • Every year it’s the same, it’s terrible. This is not what cycling should be about. But there are many alternatives and solutions to this first week very dangerous high-speed scrambling for position.
        1) Reduce peloton speed. This should be considered a must, not because it would improve the racing (although it certainly would, by decreasing the drafting advantage), but for safety. The slower, the less chance of crashing, and the less harmful crashes are when they happen (isn’t it what traffic authorities argue?). So: anything conducive to reduced speeds is a sound measure. Longer, much longer stages, to begin with. People should be too tired to be nervous when positioning is needed. And let’s not be shy about banning technical improvements if speed can be reduced that way.
        2) Reduce peloton size. Less teams. Smaller teams. The Tour de France would be fine with just 140 riders, or less (it would also be cheaper and simpler to run).
        3) Reduce the importance of positioning for GC riders. This requires an overall course that is not likely to be won by seconds or half-minutes, so that favourites don’t have to be at the front if they don’t want to contest the stage win.

        • Reduce speed by making stages longer and you have tired riders much more likely to make mistakes.

          A smaller peloton could work, especially if teams were cut from 9 to, say, 7. But you’ll still have riders fighting for position and knowing if it splits they won’t have as much help from team mate so they have to fight even harder.

          Also design a course that would have giant winning margins and riders aren’t going to spend the opening week happily soaking up losses because it’s a race and they want to get ahead of everyone anytime, anywhere.

          • You’re taking the argument to exaggeration here. It’s not about “soaking up” losses, it’s about changing the risk/incentive balance. If, given a certain risk, there is less incentive to take it, there will be less risks taken, no?
            On the length of stages, the “exhaustion mistakes” sounds good in theory. But unfortunately, experience showed that, back until 1990 when there were many long stages, including 300km+ stages in the first week, those had actually less accidents (and less serious) than shorter stages.

        • and while you’re at it throw in some 90’s Vuelta style transition stages. That’ll turn the viewers off and slowly kill the sport. Come on get a grip.

          • You can’t compare the 90’s to now, the bikes have changed so much. Situations that could be handled then, can’t be handled anymore today. And you can’t take the race out of the racers. Situations like yesterday will happen, no matter what the course looks like. It is as simple as that. But there are indeed races that need to work on safety and organisation, like the Tour or Austria. That needs our attention much more than the crash yesterday, which was-as unfortunate as it is-a simple race accident.

  3. Inrng – what happens if a team doesn’t have enough riders for the TTT, which is still a few stages away with the cobbles to come today?

    I guess that’s why they are often one of the early stages of a race.

  4. I was watching the race from the U.S on NBC sports until the number of commercials made it unbearable. I’ve never seen anything like it. Seriously 90 seconds of racing followed by 7 minutes of commercials. Thank god for Steephill.

    • When possible I record and start watching about 30 min after the broadcast begins. Any longer and I risk accidentally seeing things on social media. Allows me to skip a lot of commercials (I’m watching in Europe on EuroSport) b

  5. Tony Martin’s quest for the yellow jersey seems once again thwarted by a matter of centimetres. Somewhat questionable decision from the race judge to give Chris Froome the same time as Rodriguez but obviously their timing technology is more precise than the naked eye.

    • Agreed. I thought the same time given to Froome was generous. Not that a second would have bothered him. Felt for Martin, having been so close and such a selfless rider for a long time.

    • Tony Martin’s post race stage comments yesterday seemed to indicate, if he was feeling good, he would be having a go today. As inrng points out Sky will probably be happy to surrender yellow so I for one am expecting Tony to finally get his hands on the leaders jersey tmrw.

  6. Tour de Farce. I thought the neutralization with the “safety car” was a really bad precedent, a fear I predicted after the recent Giro stage where they had a guy on a scooter waving a red flag. Big crashes happen all the time, perhaps the sport’s showcase event needs to have more medical backup if they’re going to use the lack of it as an excuse for silliness like this?

    • Apparently the TDF has 4 ambulances – more than any other race – and all of them were engaged in attending to the wounded, hence the neutralisation. I don’t think that serious injuries count as “silliness” either, is this another instance of the archaic and unwelcome ” harden up or get out”? attitude?

        • Brailsford got it right when he was interviewed yesterday. This whole ‘precedent’ thing is utter nonsense. Rigid application of the rules and a failure to actually take into account whats happening is a big part of what got cycling into such a mess in the first place.

          Take it on a case by case basis. Yesterday’s decision was taken judged on the amount of riders that crashed, not the severity of individual injuries. On the day, it was the correct decision. The sooner we can lose this childish attitude, the better.

          • It’s more that many seems surprised yesterday but it’s all in the rules, stopping the race remains the prerogative of the race director and commissaires if the situation demands it. It did so they stopped it.

          • I was under the impression it’s actually a law in Belguim that a race requires at least 1 ambulance at all times behind the field and they’d all stopped? It’s the same in horse racing in many countries btw.

        • From @letourdata “This year there are 10 doctors, 5 nurses, 7 ambulances, 2 medical cars and 1 radiology truck on standby at @letour. #TDFdata.”

    • Most people seem ok with this now that the reasons for stopping the race have been explained – however I was wondering why the peloton was riding when Cancellara was chasing: does the unwritten rule of not taking advantage of the yellow jersey’s misfortune no longer apply (or does it only apply to a realistic GC contender in yellow)?

    • The medical assistance is taken only if absolutely necessary. Most cyclists will carry on if they can, broken vertebrae allowing. What would happen if there was a 3rd crash and no ambulances left to attend the injured?

      How much more medical backup would be the right amount? 10 vehicles, 15?

    • passionately disagree –

      aso & uci do so little for riders & teams (teams not getting any tv money etc despite being 75% of the show is despicable – they should strike) that the least they can do every so often is show they actually care about their safety.

      the ambulance issue was a good reason to go public with – but I would happily sit through more stoppages when huge smashes like yesterday happen if it helped reduce the amount of crashes (by cooling down a nervous bunch & allowing riders not to have panic after a big pile up and ride back on with concussion risking further damage). I also wonder if it’s just a nice way every so often of drawing attention to crashes as not an issue to be brushed over, so riders & governing bodies might be able to think over what happened properly and think on how to avoid it in the future.

      I realise there are issues over who has crashed, how many involved etc, but if a proper system was put in place *(lights on the tops of vehicles to indicate a neutralisation and stoppage and penalties for jumping these) it could be a nice addition that helps create a safer environment to race in. Plus I trust the commissars to judge it well – yesterday was obvious.

      I do not watch cycling to see people crash & get seriously injured.

      We just move on after collar bone and wrist breaks, and say it’s just part of cycling – it shouldn’t be like this, people should be making efforts however “for show” to improve safety – and even just a proper neutralisation system being implemented after this stoppage would be a nice start.

      (it might also avoid the race ruining Giro/Quinatana descent last year…….)

      I think this stoppage was a nice response to Mollema’s letter asking for help in stopping crashes re2014 – no one can deny these ruined the race, even if Froome & Contador’s were obviously unavoidable, others were.

      The three arguments against for me are;

      1) riders who have fought for position losing out through no fault of their own – but really most of the crashers have lost out through no fault of their own and my heart/head is with them to be honest.

      2) creating more panic by people suddenly jockeying for position at restart – I think yesterday disproved this, with the riders being very sensible themselves and riding for an extra 5k after the restart to avoid this.

      3) boring for viewers. well *(not to go back to yesterday’s debate) I find this video electrifying and would gladly watch it along with others if they could be streamed live;
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7raIxrzodt4

      T

        • understood.

          I’d also be advocating much smaller teams, less races and a revised calendar with hopefully all Aso, Uci, Rcs & teams coming on board to build a better sport, support each other a build a better future for everyone. And there might be a little more money to go around…?

          I know it will never happen and cycling will therefore never reach to its potential, but it seems such a shame.

          Even if it was a token amount, bringing the teams into the fold and starting with baby steps to move away from the sponsorship model it could benefit everyone in long term – permanent teams from people to support rather than changing names would be big step forward.

          All pie in the sky sadly.

          Considering there are too many races, some barely surviving, and an incomprehensible calendar, that’s the most pressing thing for cycling to reform follow doping it seems – somehow finding a way to sort out everything being “over” in a sense post TDF is essential.

          D

  7. The important question is which team will have a full fighting squad on stage 9.. all these crashes will play a very important role..

  8. Just wondering should “Still, he’s not got a buffer on many rivals” have been “Still, he’s now got a buffer on many rivals”?

    • They’re using some of the Paris-Roubaix sectors but in reverse. You might remember they rate them for Paris-Roubaix from 1 to 5 stars. There’s one 4-star sector and the others are 2-3 stars.

      • So while it won’t be the war of attrition that is Paris-Roubaix, one 4 star and, if I recall seeing it correctly, two 3- star sectors is still pretty hard work?

  9. Thanks @inrng. Interested to see Etixx tactics today as they have a few objectives: T Martin for yellow, Stybar or Kwia for an attacking finale and even perhaps Cav for a sprint, as you mention above (is G-W (in a normal year) perhaps a good guide for this stage?) .

    How is Demare’s form? A possible contender today?

  10. What a mess yesterday. I hate to see those crashes but I guess the peleton have nobody to blame but themselves.
    I hope Tony Martin can hang on for yellow today, he deserves it. Probably GVA and Sagan are guys main competition.
    Also curious to see what the GC top dogs will do.

    • you get the feeling the entire peleton will be riding to put Tony M in yellow – well liked rider, well deserved, and as Inner Ring said Froome will be all to happy to lose it if there’s no associated time penalty.

      BMC must REALLY be kicking themselves for not making the most of stage 2 and putting extra time into Tejay’s rivals.

      Surprised how big a gap Froome opened up on Contador and Quintana on the Mur, great to see him attacking and fighting for every second.

  11. Elmiger is one of the top contenders from P-R with a free role today. Maybe he will try something?

    On the other hand this is not P-R, and I think the fast guys will be first

  12. I’m pretty sure Froome will lose yellow today. There are too many variables to take care of whilst trying the hold the time gaps to the rest of the so-called “big four”. Froome will be happy to achieve that. On paper there’s no reason he should find the cobbles any move difficult than Contador, who lost over 2 mins on the cobbles last year, and Quintana. If Nibbles goes well today he may only make up the time he has already lost. We should remember, however, that they never race on paper.

    PS I’m pretty sure that Nibali and Quintana will never wear yellow in this Tour.

  13. Dan Martin deserves a more organised outfit than the one he is in. Probably fastest up the Huy but coming from too far back and isolated as usual.

  14. Gutted for Cancellara, what a stop start season this is proving to be. Nasty looking crash seemed to start with a touch of wheels, good job there was some grassy bits to land in. Nibs and Bertie looking a bit heavy legged, riding into form maybe whilst riding out of time.

    • I had set up my Eurosport recording to start from 3pm.
      sat down to watch “as live” … the crash was in the first 10 seconds of my recording !!

      Horrible crash, but if it had been a couple of metres further up the road, I dread to think of the consequences of guys piling into that lamp post at that speed !!. I think one or 2 guys made contact with it, but having already lost most of their momentum.

  15. Also gutted for Cancellara… I get that crashes are a part of the TDF but it must be devastating to have your entire tour ruined before it’s even begun. Not just those who go straight to hospital, but the Michael Matthews of the world who now have to suffer through another 18 odd stages with little chance of doing anything by surviving.

    At least we can be thankful that the big four are still in tact so far. We can kid ourselves all we want, last year’s Tour was a complete procession once Contador and Froome went out, and the race for second amongst the second tier contenders was nowhere near as interesting as we tried to make it out to be.

    It’s going to be so interesting today with so many cobbles-specialists sitting in the top 10…. GVA, Sagan, Stybar… Gallopin and Martin both too cant be discounted from nabbing it.

  16. Can I just say, that’s a beautiful photo of Dumoulin. Captures the hardship of pro cycling perfectly (and I never realised he’s such a looker!)

      • Agree with this, it is a striking photo. Almost black and white in hue (in fact, if a black and white print were taken, it would probably look even more evocative of a “timeless” cycling image.

  17. Some riders’ behaviour – particularly Sky – once the race was neutralised was pretty bad – Kennaugh should be fined. Alright, so they don’t know why it’s happening, but they have to accept it. Riders talk about safety, but seeing them jostling between two adjacent cars whilst going round a bend puts that in perspective.
    For today, surely – especially with the dry weather – Martin can keep himself in a front group and take yellow: mind you, there are a lot of classics boys just behind him.
    With bettering last year’s position completely out of the question, Pinot should look to lose himself a good half hour over the coming days. This would allow him to go in breakaways and he can target the KOM. A French KOM would be quite an achievement – struggling to come 7th much less so.
    Froome is looking ominously impressive: for the sake of the race, I’m hoping he loses a bit of time today – otherwise, barring disaster, this could be much less of a contest than hoped.

    • Acts of unsporting behaviour usually have a payback, maybe not on this occasion but the attitude of Sky may well be noted for future reference. Astana and Movistar also seemed keen to press on regardless.

      • In all fairness, Kennaugh could start a fight in a phonebooth. He’s not the most tranquilo of guys.
        It didn’t seem to be the issue yesterday but do feel sorry for those teams who have accepted that they don’t have GC guys and therefore can’t be present at the front of the peleton all the time – they suffer disproportionately whenever there’s crash in terms of guys hitting the deck and being tailed off the back. Watching the last couple of days, Bora-Argon should be bringing out a limited edition TdF kit with one shoulder of the jersey ripped away and bib-shorts which display a large chunk of the rediers derriere.

      • When the race stopped many swamped the lead cars – giving the benefit of the doubt maybe to try and understand what was going? If you were at the back you’d have not known

    • agreed on everything bar Pinot – didn’t Rolland or Voeckler take home mountain points jersey a few years back? for a rider as good as Pinot it’s no real great shakes surely getting his hands on that?

      before he got smashed this week I would have stuck my neck out to say he could be on course for top3 (which would be more impressive this year given competition) – and I still (as long as his confidence isn’t shattered) believe he will climb with Froome & Quintana and above Nibali & Contador.

      for me, just the learning experience and confidence boost to himself and french fans that he is on this level, maybe even beating them at times, is worth far more, and may even help swing the TDF map drawers thoughts in his direction in coming years as maybe his result & Quintana’s emergence last did for the current route?

      it may be pie in the sky but I firmly believe Contador isn’t the climber of old, and Nibali isn’t & has never been in Froome & Q’s league – Pinot on the other had showed all the signs this year of a huge improvement, even more so than TVG – and should be allowed to race his race, whether that means 5th or 6th or 7th to see how much further he needs to go to reach the top table.

      I have a suspicion if he regains confidence he may even still make top3/4 as he’s only miles behind Froome & TVG, I firmly believe he can make up minutes (maybe even 3) on Contador, Nibali and everyone else barring Froome, Quintana & TVG. Fingers crossed he doesn’t have another disaster today and in crosswinds later this week and in TTT. Because you’re right he could be 10mins behind by stage 10 and then it’s over……

      on Froome – hopefully he doesn’t have any issues this week – but currently, you’re right, looking ominously good, if it all stays the same only falling or descent attacks would cost him the tour, as only Quintana will match him in the mountains but taking 2mins back will be extremely tough.

      D

      • Virenque is still remembered and Voeckler’s mountain points jersey is one of the pinnacles of his career.
        TVG had one good Dauphine; Pinot’s also had some good results, but neither have shown themselves to be the equal of Contador or Nibali – who between them have won the last three grand tours; climbing very well in the process.

      • We’ll see how it plays out, dave – I like Pinot and hope he doesn’t lose heart or confidence. I think if he’s lost a packet more time by after stage 9, he’ll be going for stages – more kudos in some peoples eyes, and more memorable if won spectacularly than a spotty jersey,

      • I like Pinot and he’s indeed improved, but, however this Tour goes on, he still isn’t by far as good a climber as Contador or Nibali. About Contador, I guess that with “the climber of old” you refer to last September. Well, he’s 10 months and a Pink Jersey older, that’s for sure. Last year he was consistently better than Froome or Quintana.
        I believe that Froome is in top form, and when he is, he sure is a great climber, but we lack long term, stable data about him, for some reason or another, and same goes for Quintana.

    • My impression was different to yours – seems to me Kennaugh was not arguing with the directors, just happened to be there – seemed to be more animated discussion from a couple of Astana and Movistar guys.

  18. The discussion how to avoid crashes pops up every year – maybe significant time differences from the start would make the peloton less nervous but also the GC battle less interesting. It could be worth a try to start one year with a prologue, followed by a hard mountain stage and a team time trial so as to keep teams as complete as possible. Then, with some hierarchy established, put in some selective stages that require echelon-riding skills etc. Because these last skills also make cycling a great sport – otherwise a grand tour would just be time-trialling and climbing for the GC riders (which it boils down to most of the time anyway) and breakaways/sprints for the rests.
    Btw it was a good decision yesterday to neutralize the race. The crash happened just because someone wasn’t paying attention and touching wheels at high speed causing a pile-up on a road that wasn’t too narrow – I don’t see how that can be further avoided.

  19. I was pretty impressed by Froome yesterday. He looks very good, normally such a climb as the mur de huy is not for him, and he succeeded to finish in Purito’s wheel with his frog’s style. He seemed to be accelerating in the last meters. Impressive. I know this is just a 1,2km climb, but the way he did it, along with the time gap he already has, makes him for me the number 1 favourite to win.

    As far as Kontador is concerned, in turn, I am not so optimistic. He completely cracked when Purito accelerated, and he is not looking so lean… As well, I heard on Spanish TV that he suffered much in Zeeland 2 days ago, even if he was in the first group. The good point is that, if all this results so, he will surely try some embush later in the Tour!!!

    • I’m not a fan of Froome at all – in fact the complete opposite – but credit where credit’s due, he was excellent yesterday, and his team did a great job to put him in the best position.

    • I’m not so sure about the lean part. He looks pretty lean to me, but I’m not so sure about his freshness. He looked really spent on stage two. And the same yesterday. It is still far to the big climbs, he might recover a bit or the others will start feeling the fatigue and the difference leveled, but right now he definitely looks anything but fresh.

      • He did look fatigued.
        Is it possible in this day and age to do the Giro, a stage race in between, then Le Tour ?
        The racers now are so strong, team organisation (of the top GC contenders anyway) is so ruthless.
        Perhaps it’s just the type of race, so far at least, that he couldn’t / didn’t have time to prepare for properly ?
        Whatever it is, it makes Oleg Tinkoff’s £1 million bet for the top guys to take on all 3 Grand Tours as some kind of naive wish on one level, or a hideous capitalist plot on another.

      • The +1 was for irungo, even if I agree more or less with the others who answered, too. I’d just add that I’ve read somewhere that Contador is about 4 kgs above his desired weight. It looks like an exaggeration, but I think it means the impression about him not being lean was just right.

  20. Crashes are an unfortunate and inevitable part of the sport – yesterday’s crash location, for instance, looked innocuous.
    When they do happen, we often then hear all kinds of suggestions – from the sensible to the downright bizarre – to prevent them.
    Almost all of the ones suggested above – bar perhaps a smaller peloton – would result in more tedious racing.

    • Looking at the images of the crash and it’s after-effects yesterday of the torn clothing and skin, I am always amazed by the lack of protection that modern cycling apparel offers.
      It is the one area that has never moved on in time. Sure the clothing is more comfortable, wicks sweat away better, offers good wind and rain protection.
      But physical protection to the rider in a crash ? Forget it.

      I suppose in fairness that there has to be a trade-off with the heat and weight but, Jesus, getting almost flayed alive is some gamble.
      Or am I a product of the Health & Safety culture ??

      • Wait and see, the first time a rider starts with the kind of wrist protection used by rollerskaters people will laugh, a year later 20 riders will be doing it. However it’s hard to get much protection without quickly adding weight, air resistance and heat.

        • Thanks for the reply Inrng (and thanks for yet another great article).
          Has ‘cool’ vests technology not caught up / is it near to provide in-race use yet ?

          I did see that Giant Alpecin were using a new make of shorts with extra protection on the outer thighs. Could this not be added to the collar bone area and outer arm ?

          Also rider insurance. It must cost a fortune.
          If it doesn’t it should. Or there should be mandatory pay-in scheme to give extra payments for riders continuing with injuries. It doesn’t seem enough to say “he’s a stoic”, when the very same thing could happen the next day. At least the riders would have a financial compensation for their stoicism.

          • BioRacer’s “Race Proven” bib shorts had the same protective panels made of Dyneema fiber in 2013. I believe the Dutch national team(s) wore them, but although the only complaint I read about was about the stitching that joined the panels made of different fibers, for some reason the innnovation didn’t seem to make much of an impact on the market. Now it seems it is Etxeondo making a new entry, but we’ll have to wait and see if it will be different this time around.

            FWIW I purchased (after searching wide and far) a pair of “Race Provens” last year and I can vouch for both the resistance of the fabric and the protection it gives against “asphalt rash”. (Riding through the Finnish winter on the southern snow-poor coast simply doesn’t come without at least a couple of hard landings or long slides on partially gravel-covered asphalt.)

            It must be pointed out that although Dyneema is an extremely strong material, I don’t think it can be used to provide protection against collar or wrist bone fractures.

  21. So this morning I was thinking about posting “I’d hope for a Tony Martin solo and a Degenkolb second” (German here). Then I thought that would be ridiculous…

  22. Movistar of almost no use to Quintana – notable that Valverde offered him zero support. I’ll be surprised if Quintana ever wins a Tour de France, unless he vastly improves on the flat.
    Pinot’s problems seem largely psychological: he said yesterday that he had no energy after seeing the crash and today’s histrionics showed a man looking for excuses – he knows the camera is on him (and needlessly losing himself minutes). Not a winner’s mentality.
    Froome on the cobbles. Maybe the elbows-out position provides its own natural suspension.
    Hurrah for Tony Martin (Giant showing that EQS aren’t the only ones who can throw away a victory – pay attention, chaps. Or did they really expect Thomas to chase? Sky must be delighted: losing the jersey is the cherry on top.)

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