As the 2013 season approaches here is a selection of riders to watch for. I’ve picked six established riders who face different challenges in the new year and six young riders who could impress but first have to hop the chasm from amateur and pro.
Vincenzo Nibali (pictured) moves to Astana and there’s a story of leadership here, whether he can become the chief of a squad that is a mix of Kazakhs, Italians and others. His old team Liquigas reminded me of the Italian teams of the past where a whole team rode in the service of its leader, eight workers and one chef. Now Nibali will find a different model and taking charge of the mix will be a new challenge, especially since Astana have hired young sprinter Andrea Guardini which suggests the team will be split in the Giro between fast men and mountain helpers. And as much as Liquigas rode in service last year when he aimed for the Tour the famed “demon descender” never bothered to recon a stage of the Tour, so much so that he believed the Besancon time time trial was a team event until just a few days. He’s also said he’s going to coach himself as he thinks he’s got enough experience now. Self-coaching can work but you really have to know what you’re doing and an athlete on millions of Euros should really be accompanied by several coaches.
Chris Froome won’t have to worry about a lack of support staff. But he too faces the burden of leadership, something to alter the power-to-weight ratio of many a rider, especially as h seems set to lead Team Sky in the Tour de France. But that’s a long way away and what will happen until then? Forget the Wiggins rivalry in the headlines, I’m more interested in how he can he improve his riding. At the start of 2012 Team Sky analysed the squad lack of experience when it came to leading a stage race so they set about learning what this involves thanks to Wiggins in Paris-Nice, Romandie and the Dauphiné. In their words “we trained for that”. Will Froome follow the same path and more importantly will he cope in the same way? Can he tuck those elbows in, or get lower for a time trial? Wiggins is an elusive character but Froome seems more human at times and by extension more prone to frailty. Wiggins himself has said taking on the burden of leadership was hard, heavy and took time.
Sylvain Chavanel is 33 years old now and time is running out to win a big classic. But I wonder whether time or team mates pose the greatest challenge? On a Belgian team he is going to find it hard to outdo Tom Boonen and can only hope to win by playing the Lieutenant card, going up the road whilst everyone watches Boonen. This can work, he is a powerful rouleur. But this power is potentially another concern as he’s the ideal engine for Mark Cavendish’s sprint train during the last 10km of a race. The whole Omega Pharma – Quickstep team is worth watching because of the variety of talent but for Chavanel, the clock is ticking. In short is he a winner or a domestique de luxe?
Is this the last chance for Cadel Evans? He had a great 2011 season, not just for the Tour de France but because he won plenty more. 2012 started fine but he came up short in the summer and then found the rest of the season a write-off after a virus. If he can regain the 2011 form then he’ll be exciting to watch especially if he can work well with Tejay van Garderen who will surely assume team leadership in some races during the year. Who is boss for the Tour is the big question and maybe the role can be shared, it seems fashionable now it depends on how Evans fares in the first half of 2013.
A similar story for Edvald Boasson Hagen only we can also ask what kind of rider is he? He wants to win Paris-Roubaix but he can win mountain stages in grand tours, a hard rider to label. Team Sky have a system where a rider is given a chance in certain races knowing they will be on team duty later. For example Richie Porte took the Tour of Algarve with Wiggins working for him. Expect to see him aiming for the Tour Down Under but what happens later? Where does Boasson Hagen fit into Sky, is he going to lead in the classics and work in the Tour? How many races can he win and his he happy with this role at Sky?
Andrew Talansky came within 12 seconds of beating Bradley Wiggins in Tour de Romandie, the kind of second place worth noting. He won the mountainous Tour de l’Ain in August before finishing seventh in the Vuelta. Along with Ryder Hesjedal, Talansky gives Garmin-Sharp plenty of options in 2013 and it’ll be worth seeing how he continues to develop. He’s still 24 so his case is worth watching to see whether he can win more and establish himself in larger races.
Neo Pros
The strict definition of a neo-pro is any rider who joins a UCI ProTeam or Professional Continental Team for the first time no later than during his twenty-fifth year. In other words it’s not just someone in their first year. Here the challenges are different, the stories above are about confirming talent and assuming leadership. Below it is about coping with pressure, finding your way and learning.
Wilco Kelderman impressed in the amateur ranks with time trial wins in the biggest races and hit the pro ranks in August 2011 with the Tour de l’Ain where he still wore the jersey of the Rabobank development team but beat established pros to win the prologue. Come 2012 and he was seventh on the Mount Baldy stage of the Tour of California and finished in the same place on the overall, before flying to France for the Dauphiné where he was fourth in the main time trial stage, beating the likes of Chris Froome, Cadel Evans and Sylvain Chavanel. He finished the week eighth overall, all impressive for a 21 year old. It’ll be interesting to see how he copes as in times past Rabobank has seemed like a Dutch comfort zone where homegrown talent found a ready contract. Now the lack of sponsors means the survival instinct might promote some more aggressive racing.
Rohan Dennis has been part of Australia’s team pursuit squad for the Olympic year but was also racing on the road. Now he’s signed for Garmin-Sharp. For years Australian track riders have taken conveyor belt from the velodrome to the European podium, see Stuart O’Grady, Bradley McGee, more recently Luke Durbridge and many more. Dennis is touted as the best in a long time but who knows? Sometimes riders peak early, other times promise can be ruined by bad luck. Certainly he’s one to watch but give him space, some Australians have been projecting his career years ahead with visions of the Champs Elysées but hopefully they’ll be happy with a prologue win in a good race this year.
Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg will be fighting for space in 2013 whether on his team or in the closing moments of the race. He scored 14 pro wins in 2012, only beaten by Mark Cavendish, Peter Sagan and André Greipel. Clearly there’s a gap in quality, the South African was not going for Tour stage wins. Still when tested against the best he’s done well, for example beating Lars Boom in the Ronde van Zeeland. It’ll be interesting to see how he fits in with Argos-Shimano team mates, for example will he become a lead-out wagon for Marcel Kittel and John Degenkolb? It would have been nice to see MTN-Qhubeka keep his services but he’s had such a strong start that a move was long planned and if anything his success has inspired the African team to venture further into Europe with a Pro Conti licence. Don’t be surprised to see him winning early in French races if Kittel and Degenkolb are looking at bigger wins.
Moreno Moser took four wins in 2012 plus the overall in the Tour of Poland. But it wasn’t so much the quantity or quality, it was the manner of his wins. He made it look easy and exciting and, like Peter Sagan, seemed a cut above his rivals when he did it. He’s a good time triallist as the name suggests and he’s coped with long distances too. The challenge for 2013 will be identifying races that suit him, where he can improve and learn whilst also leading the Cannondale team.
Warren Barguil might be France’s new Richard Virenque. If that label sounds like a curse, it is not meant that way. No, here’s an impulsive rider at ease in the mountains but who can also cope with other races when he puts his mind to it. My concern is that Argos-Shimano haven’t had a good record with bringing on climbers and Frenchmen, see Alex Geniez but each case is different and if anything, being outside France could help him as the media burden Pierre Rolland and Thibaut Pinot. Integration should not be a problem as Barguil has already set about learning English over the winter and proved willing to help lead out his sprinters when he rode with the Dutch team as a stagiaire for the late season races. Plus he’s been the outstanding amateur in France and one of the best in Europe, winning the Tour de l’Avenir. His margin was small but that only showed how he could mark rivals and didn’t win via a lucky break.
FDJ Boss Marc Madiot gets annoyed when people ask who is the better sprinter between Arnaud Démare and Nacer Bouhanni because nobody seems to be pitting Kittel and Degenkolb together, nor Boonen and Cavendish. But Démare and Bouhanni overlap and maybe the French media isn’t used to winning riders competing on the same team. The simple solution is different calendars and both riders will have separate programmes although they’ve asked to race together at times too and seem to get one fine. With a World Tour spot there’s room to have a wide calendar. But the challenge is whether each rider can step up and go beyond the comfort zone of Coupe de France events and start to win big. Bouhanni impressed in the Vuelta and can climb when he has too whilst Démare has already started to win against the big names, for example outsprinting André Greipel in front of his home crowd in the 2012 Vattenfall Cyclassics in Hamburg.
That’s thirteen riders but Bouhanni and Demare seem to come as a package even if they won’t race together very often. There are many more riders to watch. Dennis gets some pressure but Sky’s new recruit Joe Dombrowski does too although I didn’t pick him as I can’t see him having many opportunities for himself in 2013 even if he learns plenty whilst there are several other good neo-pro picks. If you have a pick, let me know via the comments below.
Conclusion
There are many established riders with a point to prove, a story to tell or just the quiet need to confirm past performances in 2013. Unlike other sports where a handful of participants can dominate all season long, cycling shares the spoils a bit more and many riders will have their chance which means many stories. As much as the list above has riders to watch next year, there’s plenty more to follow.
After all, Joaquim Rodriguez might top the UCI rankings but his team has no licence, he’s free to ride marchas, the Spanish gran fondos and little else. What about Damiano Cunego? Will Philippe Gilbert be back? Can Peter Sagan match actions to his words? How will Cavendish do? What will Taylor Phinney win? How will Jens Voigt cope? And beyond the peloton, what’s going to happen to the UCI, the proposed calendar reforms and much more. Suddenly picking a handful of riders seems restrictive.
I am going to come back to read this later, right now I have a date with a turbo, then I am off to see Cinderella, “Oh no your not” “Oh yes I am” Great set of pics by the way, ciao for now.
I’m looking forward to seeing how Jon Tiernan Locke gets on, and what Sky do with him. Same goes for Joe Dombrowski.
+1 for JTL, we’re desperate for him to get a Tour place so we can have the inaugural ‘Devon Corner’ complete with road painting, Devon flag pants and other traditional Tour accoutrements.. Think it’s unlikely though, maybe a Vuelta for him?
(Not intentionally anonymous there..)
Me and a few more Devon lads are going over again this year, be nice to get the Devon green out for JTL!
hey! quintana is going to the tour, maybe only to learn, but after last season, he also should be followed.
Yes, Quintana is a good pick as he’s exciting rider and the Colombians as a whole should be good to watch with the Colombia team, Betancur and Sky’s Uran and Henao. When Sky put their mountain train to work in the Dauphiné as shown in the photo for Boasson Hagen, Quintana was the only one to stay away. Perhaps he was allowed but only a few riders were in the position.
JTL and Quintana both good shouts!
Really looking forward to seeing Moser in 2013! And the French, especially Pinot…honestly the list could be massive.
Very interested in seeing what kind of 2013 Peter Sagan will have…
I think Sagan targeting MSR in 2013 is perfect. Climbs near the finish and an often chaotic sprint from a small group seem to suit him perfectly. He thrives when things are hard and chaotic. The only question is how well does he cope with the distance, and that doesn’t seem like a big question anymore to me.
the distance at his age is an issue and as much as he has raw talent, he’ll need to be more tactical in 2013…rather than using his brute strength and skill.
definitely interested to see how sky deals with their new recruits. i suppose the giro and tour support teams wont be exactly the same.
also, slightly interested to see if they can do something with eisel in the classics with flecha gone.
Didn’t Sagan come 4th this year in MSR? I don’t think distance is the issue. I can only see over-confidence (I think he screwed up in Flanders by thinking he was stronger than he was) and other teams riding to beat him as his key challenges this year. He may suffer a bit of the Cav factor in that no team will want him in the final group at the finish and so they will attack relentlessly to get rid of him.
I’m interested to see how Sky bring Geraint Thomas back into the road team, he seemed to have great potential in his previous forays prior to Olympic duties. From what I’ve read he has an eye on the Classics too..
Yes, it’ll be interesting to see how he does in the classics. A pursuit rider, can he sprint?
Geraint won the Junior Paris-Roubaix in 2004. He has the ability to do well in Tour of Flanders (which he recce’d in late December 2012) and Paris-Roubaix. 2012 might be too soon after the track, but 2013/2014 could see him do well in the spring classics.
Also Junior World Champion in the Scratch Race in the same year. Definitely has the potential but, as you say, perhaps (I assume you mean) 2013 is too early.
Climbing strongly and a good sprint finish at the Tour Down Under.. I’m claiming that prediction if he takes GC..
Boasson Hagen was supposed to be Peter Sagan before Peter Sagan became Peter Sagan.
He probably should have left Sky to seek more opportunities, but his results haven’t really lived up to the billing yet in M-S-R & Flanders, two races I would have thought he would have won by now. Seems to hit form in January & February better than most riders.
The new season is an exciting prospect.
Interested in what Thor does this year after last years issues. Would like to see a PR win for him.
Yes, that will be a big aim. Apart from last year he’s also delivered plenty in the Tour de France with multiple stage wins and the green jersey.
Not a mention of Simon Clarke? KOM in La Vuelta and GT stage winner? An amazing new talent? Not a whisper of him on any ‘one to watch’ forums. Still, cycling’s best kept secret means he’ll just creep up and win even more in 2013. Go Simmo!
I’ve been watching him since the Tour du Haut Var where he battled a flat Di2 battery on his bike to still finish well on an uphill finish. He rode an intelligent Vuelta. For me the main challenge for Orica-Greenedge is getting their sprint train and Goss up to speed to cope with Cavendish, Greipel, Sagan and Kittel.
I agree about Simon Clarke – talent with a really sensible head on his young shoulders. He is learning all the right things by living near, and training with, Cadel too. If Meyer can take the step up, then OGE have Gerrans, Albasini, Clarke and Meyer as the nucleus of a team with options in the Ardennes classics. I’ll be interested to see how the team goes in its second year and what influence Matt White’s departure might have on organisation and tactics.
Continuing the Aussie theme, I really want to see if Bobridge gets back on track (forgive the pun) on his new team and delivers on his potential: remember, not long ago this guy set the fastest time for an individual pursuit ever seen, quicker than Wiggins, McGee and even Boardman, and they all went on to be pretty good road riders….
It would be great to see Chava win a big classic to add to his other wins — national champion, stages in TDF, Paris-Nice, and others.
I think Mitch Docker could surprise a few in the spring classics. With a team that will be more cohesive after a full year riding together I think GreenEdge could get him into the mix if he can avoid the injuries of last year. His time at Drapac and Skil-Shimano will serve him well
Great pictures.
Is it true that Nibali didn’t know the Tour was skipping the team time trial?
Yes, apparently so. Also for a “demon descender” he didn’t visit France to recon any of the mountain stages either. Not everyone can and the advantages are not immediate or certain but if I was hoping to get on the podium I probably would.
INRNG: I think the age ceiling to qualify as neo pro has been scrapped with effect from next year. JTL for example is a neo pro even though he’s 27
It’s gone from 22 to 25 for 2013. Email me if you want the proof and I can send you back the PDF.
No proof of evidence needed! I’ll take your word for it!
Lets hope the rider that has the biggest influence is on the sport in 2013 isn’t Armstrong…
Big question mark for me and one to watch is Andy Schleck. After a season destroyed by injury, illness, run ins with management an a seeming inability to compete at the top level without his brother, can Schleck realise any of his talent with a big result? Can he ride the Ardennes without Fränk.
As for the younger guys, I’d like to see Peter Stetina keep making those steps up the ranks. Great in the Giro in support of Ryder, he’s a good looking prospect.
Yes, an obvious exclusion. It is a big year for him but what do we get. If he’s back to podium finishes in the Tour everyone will take this for granted but I can’t see him winning given the time trials. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares without Frank but a suspension is not guaranteed. He’s another in a situation like Nibali: can he lead the team?
The list of “one’s to watch” is almost endless, one things for sure, our, that is we fans, enthusiasm for the coming season has not been dimmed by the Armstrong revelations, well none of it was really much of a surprise for most of us, was it ?
Inner Ring – Do you think Romain Sicard will ever take off in the pro ranks? He has a superb engine but he has had a slow start despite some good showing in ‘minor’ races. I know he has been injured but I think he has yet to hit his potential.
He’s had a common knee injury and this led to some muscular imbalances, one leg stronger than the other, which led to more injuries. But he did well in the last Vuelta. One to watch again but French hopes have latched on to newer faces.
Thanks. I have a feeling he is going to be very strong at this year’s Giro in support of Samuel Sanchez’s bid to beat the other favorites. Can’t wait!
So many great young riders coming through and established riders with things to prove – I’m counting down the days until the 2013 season kicks off! Would love to see Sky’s JTL unleashed in the Ardennes – he showed in the world champs that he can compete over the distance and is well known for his capabilities on the climbs. Also a big fan of Chris Froome ever since I saw him out on the attack in the British Road Race champs in 2009 and would love to see him racing for the win in Paris come July. Seriously can’t wait!!!
I’m very interested to see how Rory Sutherland will perform in a world pro team after a career living in American teams. Can climb and time-trial very well and will be surrounded by seasoned pros at Saxobank. An obvious lieutenant for Contador but will he get opportunities in other races than Tour of California?
Rui Costa and Richie Porte are two that I am excited to see what 2013 holds. Costa had a great 2012 while Porte was relegated to domestique duties. Both won a week-long tour but seemed to be going different directions.
Another good one, both should get their chances. Costa arguably took the fourth hardest stage race in the sport and he had to fight for it right until the last stage.
It is going to be a great 2013 season. I am interested in Cam Meyer and G Thomas, now both of track duties and concentrating on the road. I think Thomas has some real chances in the Classics but we will see.
As for Meyer, he is class, he stuffed up his chance of the Aussie Road Champs this time last year by hunger flatting, however maybe this will be his year.
Who’s the guy in tears with Moreno Moser I presume ( the Liquigas jersey )? Incredible picture. Moser comes from a famous cycling family. May be a relative who has something to do with cycling?
It’s his father. Moreno is the nephew of Francesco.
Whatever became of the Velits brothers. Such an anonymous 2012, but looked like they could both have the goods.
Also interested to see how Stybar goes.
Yes, I was thinking Peter would have a good Tour de France, he can climb but also sprint well from a small group
INRNG, whatever happend to Romain Feillu?
He was getting a lot of attention in 2011, nipped on the heels of a TDF stage win and had seven victories.
I took the liberty of taking five minutes to make a list before reading this and got over 30 names, an impossible job to whittle them down so well done. For me Thomas De Gendt is the stand out for potential big things, how will he cope with being a marked man now? I would like to see Tony Gallopin step up a level as he looks like he can do it all too. Marczyniski, Ulissi, Durbridge and Kristoff, Blythe, and King are on my radar and worthy of mentioning. But this quintet of climbers are really exciting and all so young, Taaramae, Van Garderen, Slagter, Pinot and Talansky, am I right in thinking Rein is still only 25.
Looking forward to JTL handing dirty clenbertie his ass over again in the mountains a la the world championships.
“Self-coaching can work but you really have to know what you’re doing and an athlete on millions of Euros should really be accompanied by several coaches.” This is probably understating it somewhat. It’s hard to believe in this day and age that Nibali would even be allowed to coach himself as a member of a pro team. Surely a team manager or the sponsor would insist that he be given every support to win the big races? But then Astana is not really under any commercial pressure to promote a winner, as they’re not exactly selling anything. In would be impossible to imagine Nibali being able to get away with such an approach at Sky, for example, who will probably make his racing life very difficult at the Giro and the Tour. A shame, given the enormous talent that Nibali has.
Joe Dombrowki!!!!!!!
I’m hoping that Dan Martin’s allergies can be kept at bay so he can improve on his past 2 seasons. He has demonstrated that he can win races and challenge for placings in the high mountain stages of Grand Tours. He also had a decent run in LBL 2012 if I recall? From an Irish perspective it will also be interesting to see how Nicholas Roche fairs out under Riis at Saxo-Tinkoff where he will no longer be team leader challenging for lowly GC positions (see AG2R) and more likely to challenge for stage wins, a style of racing he is more suited to in my opinion. Or will he just have to settle for a Super Domestique role? Soon find out.
I agree with the list but Sagan? Why not mention him? We didn’t see is full potential yet, this year he will a Classic I think( Milan-Sanrem?)
I’ve been mentioning Sagan before he was famous! But you’re right, we still don’t know what he can do and where the limits are.
Another one off the list is Poland’s Michał Kwiatkowski of OPQS and currently in the lead of the Tour de San Luis. A complete rider.
Geoffrey Soupe and Kenny Elissonde both look like very exciting prospects to me
Yes, Elissonde was in my list of riders to watch for 2012:
http://inrng.com/2012/11/riders-to-watch-2012-what-happened/
Soupe is worth noting too as he’s invaluable for FDJ’s sprinting pair Bouhanni and Démare, they get the wins but often he and William Bonnet are part of things.