They’re all here. The top classics specialist are on their preferred hunting ground for the final cobbled classic of the spring and along comes Tour de France champion Tadej Pogačar to try and eat their lunch.
The Route: 259km from Compiègne to Roubaix. It’s not a straight line but there are no finishing circuits, it’s a point-to-point race and the direction is north for most of the day but twists and turns, especially for the cobbled sectors. And especially on the cobbled sectors which makes bike handling that bit harder.
The first 95km are on tarmac. The road rises and falls, it’s the hilliest part of the course and there’s plenty of exposed roads in the countryside and street furniture in the towns, especially Saint-Quentin.
The race’s cobbles are fierce but they’re not all the same. Rated from one to five stars, the four and five star sections are brutal, the stones protrude and often the gaps in between them are wide and irregular. The chart above says 30 sectors but Sector 8 is a two-parter.
The pavé are the defining feature but roughly 80% of the course is tarmac and 90% is tarmac and the one, two or three star rated sections and moves can happen at any point on the course. The tarmac sectors are arguably as important as the pavé, riders sprint to get into position for the cobbles and once they’re on the farm tracks the fight for position backs off, the pace can ease.
The Arenberg Forest is infamous, the “place where you will not win the race but you can lose it” and the previous section (number 20) is one of the toughest. Gone is the traditional direct approach, this time the riders turn off Wallers to pass the old mining site, they probably should have done this long before to highlight the heritage tourist attraction.
Mons-en-Pévèle is a five star brute, three kilometres and often where the race is lost by many and comes with a nasty false flat drag after, a Pogačar trampoline? With 20km to go the crucial sectors of Camphin and then the Carrefour de l’Arbre arrive. This final one is five-star, two kilometres and the hardest part comes towards the end where it starts to climb and this is the crucial moment to make the difference.
The Finish: Held in the old velodrome, riders enter the 500m rough concrete track for one and half laps. The banking can be exploited by a rider lucid enough to remember how to sprint on a track, harder than it sounds after 260km.
The Contenders: Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) is the obvious pick, he’s won the last two editions and has everything to take three in a row, the skills for the cobbles and a potent sprint. But three is a rare feat (Lapize, Moser) especially because of the amount of luck required in this unique race; and this team seem to have had more punctures this season. He’s been ill, this was a factor in last week’s Ronde and while he’s had more time for recovery, it’s just not the approach he’d want. Team mate Jasper Philipsen has been second here two years in a row too and while he’s not looked as sharp this season, he’s still a contender and this also gives Van der Poel an extra tactical card to play.
Tadej Pogačar (UAE) has been dominating conversations about Paris-Roubaix for months now, ever since posting a teaser video. Can he win? Yes. But it’s not so obvious, his advantage over the field is on the climbs, where being lighter here is almost a penalty but he’s 66kg and not 55kg so he won’t be blown away in the wind. There are few climbs to exploit, more false flats here and railway bridges there. Instead he’ll probably hope to count on his durability to wear down opponents, a series of small accelerations could cost his rivals more energy than him if done carefully; especially as nobody can afford to give him a gap because if he is away then it’ll be hard to bring him back. Usually he’s won by simply outriding his rivals, this time he’ll need to employ more cunning, whether in his attacks or an eventual sprint if he’s there with others. His UAE have plenty of power to try and shape the race and Nils Politt is a key rider.
Can Wout van Aert (Visma-LAB) deliver the win he’s been chasing and Belgium longs for? Yes and the course suits him more than the Ronde. Like a job applicant sending off his CV, he keeps on trying to land Roubaix. Only mishaps, mechanicals and Van der Poel have been in the way, the Dutchman especially a regular nemesis in the biggest races. He can take inspiration from Pauline Ferrand-Prévot’s win and perhaps a boost from the on-bike tire inflation system that allows him to soften tire pressure for the cobbles and reinflate for more speed on the tarmac.
Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) is other obvious contender, on the podium last year. He’s been on the rampage this spring since Paris-Nice (pictured) but when he’s come up against Pogačar and Van der Poel they’ve been superior. Knowing this at times he’s almost been too generous, sharing the work rather than keeping a card up his sleeve but that’s his style. He’ll need things to go his way but his team can shape the race, Jasper Stuyven as a card to play, even Jonathan Milan too.
Filippo Ganna (Ineos) is more than a Roubaix specialist but this is the classic to suit the rouleurs and the race he’s really been after this spring. He has a fast sprint; he won the group sprint in Oudenaarde last weekend. It’s probably insufficient against the names above but enough to stress them if he does reach Roubaix with them. But he’ll want to be clear, away in time trial mode. Ineos don’t see to have too many other options, Josh Tarling’s form isn’t obvious for example.
Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ) is a similar case to Ganna, only minus the sprint but with added experience. No lower than fifth in the last three editions but how to win? Solo or bust and hard to get past the riders cited already.
There is space for other contenders. Soudal-Quickstep have Tim Merlier but how to get him into a winning position, he’s so quick in the sprint but it’s all the accelerations and moves along the way. Red Bull Bora-Hansgrohe have struggled so far when they ought to feature but it shows how a strong team collectively is good but they need a star on top. Matej Mohorič (Bahrain) can win when unexpected but has been quiet this spring.
This race has thrown up surprises but it’s often more the case for riders who survive from the early breakaway to land a top-10 but this can include a win, think Mathew Hayman in 2016. These days a surprise win feels very unlikely. One of the peculiarities of Paris-Roubaix is that it’s not obvious that we get an early breakaway, in recent years there’s often been such a battle that no move goes away quickly so less chance to build up a lead. For old times’ sake Max Walscheid (Jayco) comes to mind, for youth there’s Alec Segart (Lotto). Otherwise Laurenz Rex (Intermarché-Wanty) and TotalEnergies trio Sam Leroux, Anthony Turgis and Alexys Brunel fit the bill.
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Van der Poel, Van Aert |
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Pedersen, Pogačar |
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Ganna, Philipsen |
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Stuyven |
Weather: the forecast rain is likely to mean a shower here and there, enough to dampen the dust but no mudbath. However it has been dry for a long time and so while the sides of the pavé won’t be full of puddles, it only takes a sprinkle of water on the stones to make them feel greasy.
The wind will blow from the south-west, then the west closer to the finish at 20km/h with 45km/h gusts possible. A 3/4 tailwind makes for a nervous start. Some of the crucial later sectors like Carrefour de l’Arbre will be a headwind but the course twists a lot.
TV: live from start to finish, 11.10 neutralised roll-out with the finish forecast for 5.15pm CEST. Normally it’s on the same channel you watch the Tour de France on. For VPN users France3 is the local choice (free email sign-up required). Arenberg is around 3.00pm Euro time.
The false flag typo as a trampoline for Pog was a good one!
Fixed, the false flat doesn’t seem to be enough to make the difference but PFP used the small rise to Bourghelles as hers.
Looking to see Van Aert’s bad luck end on Sunday.
Sadly I think using an on-the-fly two-way tyre pressure adjustment system is inviting bad luck…
I certainly hope not but I’d sooner see the confidence in going head-to-head with the other favourites and winning on merit rather than by gimmickry.
Yup, these tech. gimmicks so rarely end well.
I mentioned it above partly because there’s not much more to add about him, we all know he can win but hasn’t so far. If he does win sections of the media will go to town on the device rather than him.
But Paris-Roubaix has long seen Frankenstein bikes, it’s been part of the story of the race. Gilbert Duclos-Lassalle (“Gibus”, the Pont Gibus sector is named after him) won twice with suspension forks etc. Or try and find a picture of Museeuw’s dual suspension bike which seemed part an engineering solution, part a marketing stunt.
Seems like a great opportunity for Visma to make themselves look even more foolish than they did at DDV.
Yet they looked quite a bit smarter today at PR Femmes – or maybe it’s just PFP and Vos who’re race smart enough not to need to be told what to do.
If Wout wins and the system is a success, as it was for Pauline Ferrand-Prevot in the women’s race, I challenge you to question the merit of his win.
Who do you think takes it in a sprint finish if all of the top six are there? Pedersen seems like the one most likely to take a sprint finish, the others need to drop him.
Hard to say as it’s not a test of speed/power but of who has some energy left but Van der Poel and Pedersen came out the best last weekend.
That’s also how Pedersen won the 2019 World Championship.
All the conventional wisdom said Trentin had the fastest sprint of the group of three which came to the finish together, but his engine coughed and spluttered when he tried to accelerate.
Peterson has only become faster since then.
If it’s the top six by chainrings above then on paper Philipsen led out by Van der Poel surely? As Wiebes demonstrated today the best sprinter can almost always summon a winning sprint when they see the finish, irrespective of how they may have struggled getting there. I think MvdP would sooner work for Philipsen than risk losing to any of the other sprinters, and already has two Roubaix wins, and MSR over Pogacar this season.
However, I think it’s unlikely Pedersen, van Aert, Ganna and Pogacar will let Philipsen be there.
I’m delighted to see a GT winner at the start and in with a chance. It’s been so long with Kelly the most recent GT winner to win in Roubaix and Hinault the last TdF winner to do so. It’s impossible to imagine Froome or Vingegaard at the start though Indurain certainly had the physique and power for it if not the dexterity.
Brennan looks like a rider to follow, at ease on the (relatively tame) cobbles of Denain and in a bunch, and full of confidence though this looks a bridge too far. Worth a single sprocket?
Having a GT rider at Roubaix is okay, but isn’t that interesting too me, but there needs to be more GT riders at the Tour of Flanders. Flanders is the classic I want to see all types of riders going at it. That is the true race that anyone can win and usually the strongest does win and I think is the true mark of a champion if they can win GTs and the Tour of Flanders.
It’s true that Flanders is a punchier race, but it’s not GC friendly like say, LBL. I think what we are seeing is the versatility of Pogacar more than anything. Valverde did well but was arguably a similar rider, albeit a step down from Pogi
The chainrings are for winning so hard to give Brennan a mention even if he’s done a lot and his win in the GP Denain was on the pavé and masterful for the way he played the other riders.
If Pogaçar wins, he joins an elite group of Speicher, Coppi, Bobet, Janssen, Merckx, Gimondi and Hinault to have won Tour de France, World Championship and Paris Roubaix – elite company to be in.
4 rings for MvdP, and joint with Van Aert seems fairly brave. I hope you’re right though!
There’s still a certain predictability to it all, the race is more open than last weekend but feels more reserved than it was a decade ago.
I would give MvdP all 5, Pog 4, WVA/Pedersen 3 I think. Of the outsiders I’d like to see Merlier go well and at least get one over Philipsen!
After MvdP didn’t really separate himself from Pedersen and WvA at Flanders, and taking his claimed illness at face value I agree with four stars. However I can’t really separate him from the other two and Ganna so I’d have them all on four.
As much as I know he can win I couldn’t bring myself to put Pogacar on the same level. Three stars for me. After MSR I just can’t see a first time GC racer, even Pogacar, riding away from the rest at Roubaix when their seated power on the secteurs must be markedly greater.
I just hope we have a clean race with all six top favourites unhindered by crashes or mechanicals not of their own doing, so we can actually compare them head to head after the finish.
At Ronde MvdP still looked clearly stronger than the rest, even despite the previous illness and the crash. The rest bar one, I mean.
However, just as WVA *should* be on a curve of rising form, MvdP arrived at the Sanremo with too much of a top shape, probably. Last year he didn’t start spring so high on form, and raced less than this season. In 2022 he won Roubaix “despite” a strong Sanremo form, but I suspect that Wout was maybe stronger, although marginally so, that day. And then MvdP 2022 took a long stop, unlike last year.
So it’s really to be seen where Mathieu is form-wise, today.
“I just hope we have a clean race with all six top favourites unhindered by crashes or mechanicals not of their own doing, so we can actually compare them head to head after the finish.”
This wouldn’t be a proper Roubaix!
Pog 4? I’d go 1 or 2 if I was in very generous mood.
He did a lot better than I expected!
Yes, hopefully, WVA is improving as the spring goes on, but up until the final time up the Kwaremont, he was dropped by MVDP a number of times. I think I’d put him at the same level as Ped and Pog.
I think those four and Ganna are quite a way above the rest – perhaps harsh on Stuyven – and are closely matched when it comes to a parcours like this.
Philipsen’s sprinting seems diminished this season: is that because he’s improved his endurance for races like this? I’m not convinced.
Don’t sleep on the Ganna sprint. That beard has added wattage.
Rumours are 7-10w…
I thought the Ronde was a great race – tactically very interesting – and this is even more evenly balanced.
It seems to take races as difficult as the monuments to stop riders running away with it too early (I know Pog did in the end, but we had a good 250km of racing before that).
And it will be fascinating to see what he can do. I think he can do anything and could well win this.
Im going to miss the chicane before Arenberg. Does the new approach slow them down as well?
Yes, as they’ll turn left onto the sector when before it straight into it. It starts with a downhill run, not steep but in the past it only added to the speed and was like running onto an ice rink rather than stepping onto it.
I think it was an improvement
I’m going to miss one of the most exciting parts of the cycling year – the charge into the forest.
Brennan is a firecracker so even if he doesn’t win he will be interesting to watch.
Greasy cobbles sounds a bit ominous.
Brennan looking better than WVA already.
Interesting take – I thought WVA was working for Brennan at one point but then felt stupid for thinking it by then end until Brennan confirmed!
Strange old race today!
If “They’re all here”, a mention for John Degenkolb who won’t be starting after a big crash last Sunday and hopefully he is somewhere comfortable to watch it on TV. The race has given him a lot but he’s given a lot back too, supporting the junior race financially even at one point.
I wonder if TP will have 2 functional team mates left at the halfway point.
Ganna post MSR has been a bit confusing? I was surprised to see him ejected so quickly in Flanders despite having a healthy gap at one point but later just assumed it was the severity of the hills – then today despite early mechanical didn’t expect to see him never really in the action (whether fighting back or at the front). Maybe he’s been ill these last few weeks or there was more to his disappearance today, just thought we’d see more this spring following MSR.
Hard to say as we barely saw anything about G3, G4 and thereabouts (and rightly so). For sure, he had energy left in the tank in the very finale… which means he should have spent more before!
^___^
Tough start with that chase well over 50 km/h and the accidents in the team, but that’s PR.
I suspects he lacks that bit of “personal love”, so to say, for these particular races, and having that helps a lot, not to say it’s nearly necessary, even.
Anyway.
Great race.
Shame Pog crashed but tbh the ease at which MVDP got back to him earlier in the race on the cobbles had me thinking this was his race to lose whatever Pog tried. Glad it was decided on a racing mistake rather than a puncture or similar even if it’s removed tension for the last 15km at least. Sad it was decided on a puncture for Pedersen, although expect he’d have been 3rd anyway.
Why don’t you post the TOP 10 while your gabbling away.
Ha, you’re a real silly billy!
I don’t know where you’ve made up this rule that no one posts here after the race – I’ve been commenting on this blog for over a decade and this has never once been the etiquette. If you want to self-police go ahead, I’m not sure it’s gonna work out!
Just be mindful of the fact that not every reader lives in the same time zone! It should be simple to apply a little bit of control.
Honestly – get over it.
You must have these posts on alerts or something to be replying so quick – but really, this is a nothing burger, please stop taking the fun out of posting here with this lovely community.
Yeah, I post during the race and always have. It’s always been that way here. We’re all in different time zones. Why read a cycling blog if you’re trying to avoid cycling news?
I came here after watching highlights, specifically to join in the post-race discussion. You know, because it is AFTER THE RACE HAS HAPPENED 😂.
If readers don’t want spoilers then perhaps don’t read the comments after the race has finished?
Thanks oldDAVE for your contributions, I enjoy reading them 👍
I can understand the frustration to blame fellow readers but as general thing it’s very hard to avoid spoilers, you almost have to avoid internet access. If you don’t find one in the comments here, it’ll be on social media, in the newspaper headlines, email and so on.
WVA to undeservably suffer the slings & arrows of the press.
Congrats to Mathieu, his family must be prouder than ever.
BTW what’s David gone to these days?
He retired at the end of 2023.
On his instagram it says he’s an agent now.
By the way there’s an post race interview with AVDP here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQHMF_IIDCg
Small side note has any noticed how good CYCLING PRO NET on youtube is at getting an incredible amount of interviews pre race and post race? Not only that they upload within the hour. It’s an amazing feat and thought it was worth shouting out here to fellow fans.
He doesn’t deserve any criticism as an athlete, he gave it all and more, getting more or less as much as it was possible in terms of results.
That said, his prep didn’t work for the declared targets and the race calendar didn’t look the best choice ever, in hindsight of course. But that’s more about the team. He might be in need of taking better care of himself, anyway, perhaps a pinch of trust less in external figures (albeit team staff) and some more self-examination. Pure conjecture on my part.
One more question about a small detail.
Pog’s left wrist showed blood before his crash.
Could his hefty watch have rubbed him raw?
Almost certainly….
But, I’m sure the personal sponsorship deal that gives him a €340k to wear during races will more than make up for a little blood loss……
As a side note, Pogačar looked genuinely emotional and almost in tears as he received the second place trophy. I do hope he comes back to try again…
I thought exactly the same – but then rewound and if you rewatch, he’s actually coughing! One of those coughs after huge energy exertion not a cold – it’s funny though he looked as if he really was about to cry!
I actually thought in all the interviews he was noticeably tired and subdued – you could sense the race really took it out of him.
I find it hard to see the point of him riding Amstel/Fleche before LBL if I’m honest, but that’s why I’m not a coach! And Pog famously has impressive recovery skills.
But you also could notice how entering the velodrome his grimace of suffering turned into a smile of sort. Just relief? Looked like something deeper.
That’s how it seemed to me too. Reassuring in a way to see both MVDP and Pogacar visibly appearing to suffer from their exertions in the last part of the race
Both were limping across the grass in the velodrome because their legs were so wooden after.