Milan-Sanremo Preview

The charm of bike racing is that the strongest rider does not always win. Skill, tactics and sheer good luck play a role. Especially in Milan-Sanremo.

The race has evolved over the years and now in its 117th edition there is a change. Tadej Pogačar’s moves on the Cipressa have opened up the race and created a new version where the rules, scenarios and habits of recent years have been revised but the new script is not settled. If he goes again should rivals follow or wait. Stick or twist?

The Course
The same and why change a winning formula. If some races keep adding more climbs or cobbles, the balance here feels perfect as it theoretically allows everyone a shot at glory, from grand tour winners to sprinters this century. But of late the race has excluded the pure sprinters, it is probably beyond the reach of a Mark Cavendish today, or Tim Merlier were he to start today.

There’s 125km on the Pianura Padana, past rice fields and across the plains to Ovada. Here the Turchino pass starts. The race takes the old road up and the average gradient is a measly 1.5% and for proof of the gentle slope a railway runs alongside most of it. But there are some steeper moments and at it kicks up at the top.

The descent is different, shorter, steeper and with plenty of hairpin bends to describe the technical aspect. There’s a different feel too, the way up was cold and austere, the descent sashays down to a Mediterranean playground of palm trees, beaches and cruise liners.

Once on the coastal road there’s often a last moment to go back to the team car or stop by the road to remove clothing. There’s 80km to the first of the three capi, the capes where the road rises away from the beaches to tackle headlands. Positioning counts here as riders jostle for position and use up energy. The third one, the Capo Berta is the hardest, over a kilometre at 7-8%. There’s only 10km to the Cipressa.

The Cipressa is the hardest climb of the day, compounded by the 261km that has preceded it. Listed as 4.1% gradient for 5.6km it’s really over 5% for nearly 4km and with some 6-7% parts on a twisting road that helps to line out the peloton such that a rider in 40th place is a long way back measured by time. It flattens out for a balcony section before the village of Cipressa and the pinch point at the top. The descent is tricky in places, especially for riders on the limit. Then comes nine kilometres back on the Via Aurelia.

The Poggio is less steep and the early ramps are connected by corners where riders often dab the brakes because they’re going up so fast. Two thirds of the way up and the road straightens out and the steepest part comes, this has often been the moneytime moment where the outcome is decided in a few pedal strokes

It’s downhill into Sanremo. By itself it’s not the most difficult descent but now it’s tricky descent because of the slender margins, nobody can afford to let a rival take a bike length. It’s not the flowing downhill Super-G schuss, many of the bends require riders to power out of the exit so it suits beefy riders as much as daredevils.

Once clear of the last ramp there are 2.2km to the finish.

The Contenders

Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) is the first pick. He won it in 2023 and 2025 and last year showed range, experience and cunning to beat Tadej Pogačar: tracking him on the Cipressa, matching him on the Poggio and then tucking him away in the sprint. This year looks similar but how much can we extrapolate from Tirreno-Adriatico where he took two stages, the first looked effortless, the second more than effortful? If Pogačar goes into the Cipressa in a better position than last year then overcoming his anaerobic torture here is a big ask.

His team will take responsibility early on and this brings us to Jasper Philipsen who won in between Van der Poel’s two wins. He’s not looked so sparkling this season but apparently it’s all part of a plan where he’s sacrificed a little top speed to become more versatile. His win in this week’s Nokere Koerse hints at this, winning the uphill sprint. Parlaying this into the Cipressa-Poggio combo is more than a leap, it’s a triple jump but it makes him a contender. He also boosts Van der Poel’s chances as he can mark rivals who don’t have a sprinter….

Solo or bust for Tadej Pogačar (UAE)? He’s tried a Cipressa attack two years in a row. The first fizzled out, the second got him an option on the win, only to be out-sprinted by Van der Poel. Each time he’s had trouble with positioning going in the climb so if his team can deliver him among the first five riders this time he’ll have an advantage. Third time lucky? Now we’ll see if he drop the field and go solo to the finish. Easy, eh? Everyone bracing for this move and were he to shed everyone up the Cipressa and eek out a few more seconds on the descent there’s still 18km to go. Yet if he tries to encourage others to go with him in the move then his chances of being beaten rise; unless he can lure them and then distance them on the Poggio. To add to the “easier said than done” palimpsest the weather forecast now has a mild headwind in the finish which benefits a group more than a solo rider but only if the chasers are able to get organised and have the numbers to work. Pogačar could sit tight and go all in on the Poggio instead but this forsakes his comparative advantage.

Isaac Del Toro can join him on the attack. The Mexican is in form having won Tirreno-Adriatico and has taken plenty of one day races on the Italian calendar already. Normally when Pogačar starts it’s all in for him on the team and like we saw in the Strade Bianche Del Toro can be deployed to mark rivals.

Italians tune for Sanremo every spring… the music festival where an Italian is guaranteed to win. Now we’ll see if Filippo Ganna (Ineos) can deliver a crowd-pleaser. He has been runner-up twice, but how to win? The Cipressa represents his climbing limit and while there’s huge power for a sprint, there are faster riders. A late attack in the streets of Sanremo might be his best route but assumes he is there and has the energy left to pull this off. His predecessor Fabian Cancellara made a habit of these finisseur moves, Ganna’s only had one World Tour level road race win, the Giro stage in 2020 but pull it off and like this year’s song, it’ll be Per sempre si or “Forever yes”. Axel Laurance and Ben Turner are sprint cards to play.

Visma-LAB are without Matthew Brennan, an ace sprint card. A win for Wout van Aert would be a fairy tale given the form of late but it’s not the story he’s trying to write, his goals are in the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix but nobody is going to turn it down here. Christophe Laporte ought to be an archetypal rider for this race but has yet to finish in the top-10. Matteo Jorgenson is a wildcard to play and can probably count on being delivered into the Cipressa but in his own words he can’t really sprint.

Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) won Milano-Torino in the week, he jumped clear on the Superga for the win and was clearly the best but a show of force when more is needed today. He’s not been in the top-10 before but fits the bill and can win the sprint from a small group. Plus he almost won two years ago with a late move.

Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) is no fan of this race as he doesn’t like the long, processional wait. He starts on his comeback from a broken wrist, form unknown but team mate Giulio Ciccone could be a surprise.

Matej Mohorič (Bahrain) is not on many people’s radar and he probably likes that.

Paul Magnier (Soudal-Quickstep) crashed hard in Tirenno-Adriatico but is a contender thanks to his ability to deliver a long sprint at the end of a hilly day.

Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) tried to follow Pogačar last year but could not hold on for the final metres of the Cipressa, any gain on this might give him more of an option but as good as he is and the form looks sharp, the rivals look superior.

A bunch sprint? As the chart shows there’s never a field sprint and even large groups over a decade ago where around thirty riders. So this makes it tough for sprinters like Tobias Lund (Decathlon-CMA CGM) even if he’s enjoying an excellent season. So while Luke Lamperti (EF), Magnus Cort (Uno-X), Laurence Pithie (RedBull) or especially Andrea Vendrame (Jayco) are four more to pick among forty more contenders their chances are slim given the competition already cited and as finely balanced as the race may be it is not generating many surprise winners and upsets of late.

	Mathieu van der Poel
	Pogačar
	Ganna, Philipsen
	Del Toro, Pidcock
	Van Aert, Laporte, Magnier

Weather: 5°C at the start in Pavia but sunny and a light tailwind. Later a milder 17°C along the coast where a light tailwind from the NE will switch to a SW headwind within the final 50km. Tactically this matters as a headwind can put a lid on things but the forecast seems uncertain, the timing of the change in wind direction isn’t certain.

TV: the start is at 10.10am and the finish is at 4.55pm CET. It’s live on RAI for locals and VPN users, channel-hoping from RAI Sport to RAI2 at 2.00pm. Otherwise it’s on Eurosport, Flobikes and SBS for English-speaking coverage, the latter being an option for VPN users too.

Should you watch from the start? Look to see which teams send riders in the early breakaway. As a rule the earlier you tune in the more frenetic the finale feels and you can have it playing in the background all day.

Albenga comes with with 65km to go and is where the fight for position turns into a combat sport, it’s around 3.20pm.

Women’s Sanremo: there’s more to watch with the finish at 2.30pm CET. The obvious pick is Lorena Wiebes who won last year and hasn’t been beaten in a sprint since the year before that to the point where confident of this monopoly she’s been working on versatility so should hope to resist attacks but all the more reason for teams not hypnotised by her to try on the Cipressa. For a more thorough preview, visit ProCyclingUK.com.