The charm of bike racing is that the strongest rider does not always win. Skill, tactics and sheer good luck play a role. Especially in Milan-Sanremo.
The race has evolved over the years and now in its 117th edition there is a change. Tadej Pogačar’s moves on the Cipressa have opened up the race and created a new version where the rules, scenarios and habits of recent years have been revised but the new script is not settled. If he goes again should rivals follow or wait. Stick or twist?
The Course
The same and why change a winning formula? While some races keep adding more climbs or cobbles, the balance here feels perfect as it theoretically allows everyone a shot at glory, it’s gone to grand tour winners and sprinters this century. But of late the race has excluded the pure sprinters, it is probably beyond the reach of a Mark Cavendish today, or Tim Merlier were he to start today.
There’s 125km on the Pianura Padana, past rice fields and across the plains to Ovada. Here the Turchino pass starts. The race takes the old road up and the average gradient is a measly 1.5% if you like your stats, if you prefer anecdotes a regular railway runs alongside. But there are some steeper moments and at it kicks up at the top.
The descent is different: shorter, steeper and with plenty of hairpin bends to describe the technical aspect. There’s a different feel too, the way up was cold and austere, the descent sashays down to a Mediterranean playground of palm trees, beaches and cruise liners.
Once on the coastal road there’s often a last moment to go back to the team car or stop by the road to remove clothing. There’s 80km to the first of the three capi, the capes where the road rises away from the beaches to tackle headlands. Positioning counts here as riders jostle for position and use up energy. The third one, the Capo Berta is the hardest, over a kilometre at 7-8%. There’s only 10km to the Cipressa.
The Cipressa is the hardest climb of the day, compounded by the 261km that has preceded it. Listed as 4.1% gradient for 5.6km it’s really over 5% for nearly 4km and with some 6-7% parts on a twisting road that helps to line out the peloton such that a rider in 40th place is a long way back measured by time. It flattens out for a balcony section before the village of Cipressa and the pinch point at the top. The descent is tricky in places, especially for riders on the limit. Then comes nine kilometres back on the Via Aurelia.
The Poggio is less steep and the freshly-surfaced early ramps are connected by corners where riders often dab the brakes because they’re going up so fast. Two thirds of the way up and the road straightens out and the steepest part comes, this has often been the moneytime moment where the outcome is decided in a few pedal strokes
It’s downhill into Sanremo. By itself it’s not the most difficult descent but now it’s tricky descent because of the slender margins, nobody can afford to let a rival take a bike length. It’s not the flowing downhill Super-G schuss, many of the bends require riders to power out of the exit so it suits beefy riders as much as daredevils.
Once clear the last ramp there are 2.2km to the finish.
The Contenders
Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) is the first pick. He won it in 2023 and 2025 and last year showed range, experience and cunning to beat Tadej Pogačar: tracking him on the Cipressa, matching him on the Poggio and then tucking him away in the sprint. This year looks similar but how much can we extrapolate from Tirreno-Adriatico where he took two stages, the first looked effortless, the second more than effortful? If Pogačar goes into the Cipressa in a better position than last year then overcoming his anaerobic torture here is a big ask.
His team will take responsibility early on and this brings us to Jasper Philipsen who won in between Van der Poel’s two wins. He’s not looked so sparkling this season but apparently it’s all part of a plan where he’s sacrificed a little top speed to become more versatile. His win in this week’s Nokere Koerse hints at this, winning the uphill sprint. Parlaying this into the Cipressa-Poggio combo is more than a leap, it’s a triple jump but it makes him a contender. He also boosts Van der Poel’s chances as he can mark rivals who don’t have a sprinter….
Solo or bust for Tadej Pogačar (UAE)? He’s tried a Cipressa attack two years in a row. The first fizzled out, the second got him an option on the win, only to be out-sprinted by Van der Poel. Each time he’s had trouble with positioning going in the climb so if his team can deliver him among the first five riders this time he’ll have an advantage. Third time lucky? Now we’ll see if he drop the field and go solo to the finish. Easy, eh? Everyone bracing for this move and were he to shed everyone up the Cipressa and eek out a few more seconds on the descent there’s still 18km to go. Yet if he tries to encourage others to go with him in the move then his chances of being beaten rise; unless he can lure them and then distance them on the Poggio. To add to the “easier said than done” palimpsest the weather forecast now has a mild headwind in the finish which benefits a group more than a solo rider but only if the chasers are able to get organised and have the numbers to work. Pogačar could sit tight and go all in on the Poggio instead but this forsakes his comparative advantage.
Isaac Del Toro can join him on the attack. The Mexican is in form having won Tirreno-Adriatico and has taken plenty of one day races on the Italian calendar already. Normally when Pogačar starts it’s all in for him on the team and like we saw in the Strade Bianche Del Toro can be deployed to mark rivals.
Italians tune for Sanremo every spring… the music festival where an Italian is guaranteed to win. Now we’ll see if Filippo Ganna (Ineos) can deliver a crowd-pleaser. He has been runner-up twice, but how to win? The Cipressa represents his climbing limit and while there’s huge power for a sprint, there are faster riders. A late attack in the streets of Sanremo might be his best route but assumes he is there and has the energy left to pull this off. His predecessor Fabian Cancellara made a habit of these finisseur moves, Ganna’s only had one World Tour level road race win, the Giro stage in 2020 but pull it off and like this year’s song, it’ll be Per sempre si or “Forever yes”. Axel Laurance and Ben Turner are sprint cards to play.
Visma-LAB are without Matthew Brennan, an ace sprint card. A win for Wout van Aert would be a fairy tale given the form of late but it’s not the story he’s trying to write, his goals are in the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix but nobody is going to turn it down here. Christophe Laporte ought to be an archetypal rider for this race but has yet to finish in the top-10. Matteo Jorgenson is a wildcard to play and can probably count on being delivered into the Cipressa but in his own words he can’t really sprint.
Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) won Milano-Torino in the week, he jumped clear on the Superga for the win and was clearly the best but a show of force when more is needed today. He’s not been in the top-10 before but fits the bill and can win the sprint from a small group. Plus he almost won two years ago with a late move.
Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) is no fan of this race as he doesn’t like the long, processional wait. He starts on his comeback from a broken wrist, form unknown but team mate Giulio Ciccone could be a surprise.
Matej Mohorič (Bahrain) is not on many people’s radar and he probably likes that.
Paul Magnier (Soudal-Quickstep) crashed hard in Tirenno-Adriatico but is a contender thanks to his ability to deliver a long sprint at the end of a hilly day.
Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) tried to follow Pogačar last year but could not hold on for the final metres of the Cipressa, any gain on this might give him more of an option but as good as he is and the form looks sharp, the rivals look superior.
A bunch sprint? As the chart shows there’s never a field sprint and even large groups over a decade ago where around thirty riders. So this makes it tough for sprinters like Tobias Lund (Decathlon-CMA CGM) even if he’s enjoying an excellent season. So while Luke Lamperti (EF), Magnus Cort (Uno-X), Laurence Pithie (RedBull) or especially Andrea Vendrame (Jayco) are four more to pick among forty more contenders their chances are slim given the competition already cited and as finely balanced as the race may be it is not generating many surprise winners and upsets of late.
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Mathieu van der Poel |
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Pogačar |
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Ganna, Philipsen |
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Del Toro, Pidcock |
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Van Aert, Laporte, Magnier |
Weather (updated Saturday): 5°C at the start in Pavia but sunny with a light tailwind. Later a milder 17°C along the coast where the gentle tailwind from the NE will switch to a SW headwind within the final 50km but only just, 7-10km/h.
A headwind can put a lid on things but the forecast seems uncertain, and if there is a headwind it’ll be very slight.
TV: the start is at 10.10am and the finish is at 4.55pm CET. It’s live on RAI for locals and VPN users, channel-hoping from RAI Sport to RAI2 at 2.00pm. Otherwise it’s on Eurosport, Flobikes and SBS for English-speaking coverage, the latter being an option for VPN users too.
Should you watch from the start? Look to see which teams send riders in the early breakaway. As a rule the earlier you tune in the more frenetic the finale feels and you can have it playing in the background all day.
Albenga comes with with 65km to go and is where the fight for position turns into a combat sport, it’s around 3.20pm.
Women’s Sanremo: there’s more to watch with the finish at 2.30pm CET. The obvious pick is Lorena Wiebes who won last year and hasn’t been beaten in a sprint since the year before that to the point where confident of this monopoly she’s been working on versatility so should hope to resist attacks but all the more reason for teams not hypnotised by her to try on the Cipressa. For a more thorough preview, visit ProCyclingUK.com.
Can’t wait for this one. Will be very interesting the finish with so many tactical options ahead of Pogacar. Basically he needs to figure out something else I believe this time, rather then relying on his team going full gas on Poggio and Cipressa. Maybe UAE sends Isaac del Toro upfront so MvdP will chase him up the hill and only then Pogi goes past both of them? MvdP maybe too smart to catch for this though. Maybe then Pogi just goes full gas on Poggio only and stay calm on Cipressa? We cannot discount other riders too (Matej! and Philipsen). Anyway, will watch the last hour (as always) closely wile having Eurosport played in the background through half of my Saturday 🙂
We’ll see for UAE, still think they might hope for a “third time lucky” approach and even if the weather is not ideal, but it’s a very light headwind. They often rely on big attacks rather than stealth. But the delight is the anticipation that anything can happen and we’ll see how as much as who wins.
Great article! Thank you, Sir!
My favorite race of the season for many reasons. But as you alluded, tune in from the start and let the anticipation build. Cheers friends, let’s enjoy this one!
If MVDP marks Pogacar then Del Toro could sneak away for the win. Would UAE and Pogacar allow that possibility?
I had Brennan for a long shot. He’ll be disappointed as am I.
I think this is the way. MVDP was on the limit last year and they gapped Ganna. If Del Toro can roll attacks with Tadej it seems possible that they could make MVDP crack. Then again, there just isn’t that much road to work with in this race. I suppose that is what makes it fascinating
I think Pogačar really wants to win this and if he does then it becomes less of an obsession and Del Toro probably knows this too so for now it’s all in for Pogačar. Not to say no to Del Toro but it might be a decision they take out on the road on the way to the Poggio etc rather than agreed by now.
If it starts raining in Sanremo that will make for a very stressful ending!
I do hope Pidcock is in the leaders group at the end. I think Pogacars weak team will be his handicap this year, and maybe he will win next year. Ganna winning would be an absolute fairy-tale for him and Italian fans, I think that would be my favorite ending. So hard to beat MvdP though.
Should be dry… rain coming on Sunday. But Italian forecasts are mixed, one does say rain coming in the evening.
Can’t wait. My favourite race of the year. Anticipation all day, not to mention through the off-season. Despite much commentary on Pogacar’s cannibalesque dominance getting boring I’d love to see him win this. I’d love to see someone win the 5 monuments in my viewing lifetime (maybe this year for Roubaix too). Phil Gil came close. Also, the many decades of “horses for courses” that we had with GC riders avoiding most classics were boring in a different way. The versatility we’ve seen in recent years, especially from Pog, is to be savoured in my opinion. It harks to earlier golden ages. Whoever wins will be a worthy champion though. Roll on La Primavera.
GANNA.
Without narvaez and wellness, pogacar will find it more difficult to make a difference on the cipressa. They’ll arrive at the poggio a bit fresher, so GANNA doesn’t get gapped this time. At the bottom he’ll go where stuyven went. Pog and mvdp will hesitate slightly, GANNA will be away and will ride a pursuit to the finish.
That’s quite possible, but it’s also very predictable, which reduces the possibility…
This hasnt dated well!
Gapped from the first pedal stroke of Pog’s attack, I’d love to know why exactly?
Great write-up! I used to think this was the most boring of the Monuments, but in recent years my perspective has changed. I’m firmly in the anyone-but-someone-from-UAE camp, and this has turned out to be the most open of all the classics. Can’t wait!
Excellent preview. Thanks, Inrng! I wonder if Del Toro and Pogi play the 1-2 this year. Alternatively, Ganna, Del Toro, and Pogi could go on the Berta this year and then try to ride it out to the Cipressa. They could really wear MvdP out with hard efforts on both the Berta and the Cipressa.
Ganna and del Toro will both likely use more energy getting up to MvdP on the capi and Cipressa than the latter needs to chase either of them down thereafter, should he even choose to. He really only needs to mark Pogacar, and maybe Pidcock if he’s still there on the Poggio.
The real start of the season! Looking forward to seeing a well-deserved winner—hopefully not someone named Pogacar, Christen or Del Toro. 🙂
After last years mayhem perhaps we’ll see the same but with different results – more old school (dare I say, negative) tactics, a group coming in to the streets of San Remo and hell, maybe a surprise winner.
The much talked about weight increase for Pogacar is obviously due to the MSR monkey on his back! If he can shed this he will be ship shape for the rest of the season.
If Brennan is out that is a big loss for the race.
Maybe strade bianchi was a tactic test – have de toro on Pog’s wheel so when Pog goes, del toro lets the gap go which for them is hopefully too big for MVP to come around
Pogacar is good, but hopefully not so much so that he can ride the field off his wheel on 4% without a leadout from del Toro…
Meant as a replay to @Somers…
There’s just not enough road for Pog to get away. He’s the best in the world, he’s given it everything in the last couple of years and still hasn’t won. Always fascinating though!
The title of the “Corriere della Sera” homepage article mid-race through: “Pogacar non attacca sul Turchino” ^___^
Quite telling!
Carlton Kirby’s compulsive clatter (an asinine alliteration he might like, I admit) can grate, but sometimes he spins a good description. Victor Campanaert’s calves, he said, “are the finest in the peloton. It looks like he’s smuggling frozen chickens.”
When Matej Mohorič won a few years ago, there was a lot of attention given to his dropper seat post. Have other riders/teams adopted this technology? DA
Simply superb.
It wasn’t the best MSR ever. Pidcock had a great race, but it didn’t come close to last year’s excitement.
Surely you jest?
Compared to last year? Definitely not. Last year was arguably the best in modern times, while this one was just so-so. Once MvdP faltered, the outcome was pretty much decided.
Not at all – Pidcock would surely be fancied in a sprint against Pogačar any day. The tension at the end where Pogi slowed down enough to scare Pidcock with the onrushing sprint peloton was absolutely amazing and could have gone any one of three or four ways. I found it indescribably exciting.
+1
The only thing that would have made it better is if van Aert had caught them…
that was one of the most exciting races I’ve seen. My word.
Not sure we watched the same race then.
I detest UAE (and Pogacar isn’t my favorite either), but it’s hard to deny this was the best one-day race of the season by a long shot.
It was even exciting following on Velopro and PCS with an almost perfect podium.
Is the final 30km of MSR the best 40 minutes of sport of the year? I really can’t think of much that competes for such reliable, edge of your seat drama year after year. It’s the same every year but different every time.
+1. Fantastic.
I do enjoy seeing Pog win, uae not so much. What an exciting finish, to fall and still win is amazing.
In my humble opinion one of the finest wins, against all the odds, in one of the best classics ever. Well done Pogacar.
Against all the odds? Interesting take.
I would say UAE, POG and his vast team of service support staff… own the odds.
With the resources at his disposal the odds are somewhat stacked.
And finally the GOAT did it. It played like an Italian Opera!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What mountains are left for Pogacar to climb if he wins in Roubaix?
La Vuelta? The list is short.
He does not seem so motivated by repetition.
Will be exciting to see if his decline starts here
Wonder if he would ever consider a swing at all 3 grand tours in a season?
He’s mentioned it (but if asked who wouldn’t say they’d like to win all three?). An added complication is for the team as it means telling Almeida, Del Toro and others they won’t get the leadership they might expect in at least one grand tour.
Roubaix and the Vuelta as you say. Possibly the Olympics in 2028.
There are gaps like Romandie, Itzulia Basque Country, San Sebastian to fill in but soon you get to races where if he were to win them it would not add much because the list is long and wide already, wins would not surprise or demonstrate something new.
He seems to get some thrill from being challenged, racing on Van der Poel’s turf has given a stimulus that he hasn’t got from the Tour for a while.
Earlier this year his manager hinted at a career goal being to win every WorldTour race.
Pretty sure he was down to race Romandie and Swiss this year. That would leave just the Vuelta, Roubaix and Romandie left. Roubaix he probably win this year.
Sorry I meant Itzulia, coffee hadn’t kicked in!
Itzulia where, interestingly enough, some years ago he sacrificed his own GC chances to help his captain McNulty!
Which, I suspect, just proves how the WT concept isn’t quite clear to insiders, either.
Or Pogi is soon gonna discover that his next obsession, the WT Copenhagen sprint, is harder a challenge than Sanremo or Roubaix…
Pog, VdP, WVA all crash before the Cipressa. Pog and VdP catch up on the Cipressa then attack and are away. WVA doesn’t catch until the Poggio and then attacks on the run-in to the finish. Why are the other teams even there? Training ride?
As much as I enjoy seeing WvA do well I’m not sure this is the race to highlight after he was shamelessly motorpaced back to the front after his post crash bike change. Still, a strong and promising ride for Flanders and especially Roubaix.
Oh my comment was only about the other teams.
Hugely happy to learn that the horror crash down the Poggio in the women race ended up with no major consequences (compared to what could be expected especially for Silvestri) despite some awful images.
Same here. Silvestri’s crash looked absolutely gut-wrenching and cast a shadow over the rest of an otherwise great race, at least for me. What a relief that it’s “only” some broken ribs and and a minor fracture to the shoulder blade. Niewiadoma apparently OK as well. Also, I couldn’t believe it when the Visma-LAB rider fell with her bike over the guardrail and on the road a few metres below, got back on her bike and rode on as if nothing had happened. Glad that Kopecky seems to be back after a less than ideal 2025 and unlucky start to the season. Wiebes is so strong now that she seemed virtually unbeatable in any race that doesn’t include very severe climbing. I believe she hasn’t lost a sprint since August 2024, and she now also climbs pretty well.
Totally so. Could you see who the Visma rider was? It was beyond amazing.
I am not sure, but I believe it was Margaux Vigié. I couldn’t read the number in the helicopter shot. The Visma-LAB website mentions that Vigié and Van Dam were involved in the crash (both OK), and given that choice, the rider who fell over the guardrail looked like Vigié, I’d say.
Thanks, useful to follow up about possible consequences which might have surfaced later (microfractures or so). The cyclist’s mind… whatever happened, if you can stand, check the bike, hop back on and ride to the end. It’s got its dark sides, of course, past famous cases of concussion come to mind, but it’s still impressive to witness.
Whar a great race!
And that’s despite the fact that I can’t stand UAE and find myself liking Pogacar as a person and rider less and less.
@Ryan +0.75
I don’t understand people’s need to tell others how they dislike the race favourite. No one cares.