The third week and the Giro starts today, not that we should dismiss all the sport of the past two weeks. But this is the first real mountain stage and a summit finish too.
The Route: 203km and 4,900m of vertical gain, a lot for a course that rarely gets beyond a thousand metres in altitude.
The first climb is gentle, 13km at under 5% but still comes after an hour or more of battling across the plains and up the first valley roads and should be sufficient to shape the race if a move has yet to go clear.
Candriai sits on the flanks of Monte Bondone, infamous in Giro history and 10km at 7.6% on a small road makes it tough. The Santa Barbara climb is harder still, 12.7km at over 8%.
The Finish: 18km at 6% but a climb in four parts, the first is steady on a well-engineered road, “pedalable” as they say in Italian. Then a flat section with some downhills, for two kilometres, then the next section is tough, the hardest part of the climb for five kilometres. The final two kilometres kick up again.
The Contenders: the breakaway has a good chance today. UAE lead but don’t need to strangle the race, on the contrary better to try and lull rivals into lethargy. It’s for others to take them on and Ineos seem enterprising here but this doesn’t mean they’ll go warp speed from the start.
So there’s space for Nairo Quintana (Movistar) and Romain Bardet (Picnic-PostNL) to a swansong, if not today then later this week.
Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS-Astana) is a candidate too for the win especially if he can score points without using up too much energy on the way but he’s up for the mountains jersey and has 197 points when there are 148 available today, his team mate Wout Poels might be an easier pick for the stage.
If Primož Roglič starts which is likely then Giulio Pellizzari is probably retained to help so maybe not today for the promising Italian.
It’s a big test for Isaac del Toro (UAE). He’s looked brilliant so far, floating in the climbs and covering moves like a cat pouncing on a mouse. Is this ease, or nervousness? There’s lots of talk about using up energy but he’s not done anything extravagant since Siena, even if every action still counts. The word is his 10-20 minute power is exceptional, by implication his 40 minutes might be less; see his Tuscan time trial for a suggestion od this. If so rivals have an interest in testing his endurance but how many want to volunteer with a long range attack?
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Poels, Del Toro, S Yates, Quintana |
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Bardet, Ayuso, Meintjes, Harper |
Weather: early rain clearning to leave sunshine and 23°C
TV: KM0 is at 11.35 and the finish is forecast for 17.15 CEST.
Postcard from the Passo di Santa Barbara
The Santa Barbara climb today was one of Gilberto Simoni’s training roads, almost home turf. In 2001 he was wearing the maglia rosa on Stage 14 when the Giro climbed this pass. Simoni’s fans were out in force, literally. He got a helping push or three while his rivals found the “Simoni hooligans”, written on their orange t-shirts, in their way and hurling insults.
Wladimir Belli, third overall, snapped and thumped one of them in the face. “A right hander worthy of Mike Tyson” wrote Gazzetta. Only it was Belli who got knocked out, the commissaires sent him home that evening. DSQ.
A rider cannot attack a spectator, even if the person has stopped spectating and started interfering. There’s a slight fascination with this incident because it’s so far-fetched, that cycling might attract such passionate interest, let alone this. Of course it went too far and it turns out this wasn’t some die-hard Simonisti, the hooligan hit by Belli was apparently Simoni’s nephew.
Partisan support in cycling is rare, let alone hooliganism. The Giro used to be notorious for home riders getting pushed up a mountain but it’s legendary because it’s history thanks to TV coverage and more mobile race officials.
It’s been even more rare for the crowd to set themselves against a rider, accounts from 1904 Tour de France say gunshots were needed to disperse a violent crowd near Saint-Etienne. One version from 1950 says a blade was pulled on Gino Bartali by French fans upset at his domination, another says it was just spectator with a knife for his saucisson. Eddy Merckx got a punch to the gut in 1975. There are more but the catalogue is still relatively thin.
These days most incidents involving fans, a loose label on occasions, are down to ignorance or idiocy. A newcomer might not realise how the bunch can use every centimetre of the road as they lean over a barrier to get a better photo; someone waiting all day may have drained too many beers before stumbling in front of a rider. The media, especially social media, can make a big deal out of one idiot while taking the millions of others who do it right for granted.
The local today is Edoardo Zambanini, look out for banners in support… and orange t-shirts.
No Carapaz or Bernal? I suppose it’s more likely that they will be fighting the gc battle after the winner comes out of the break, but I would love to see riders spread out all over the mountains with the break joined by a few gc guys. Can’t hurt to hope, right? Btw, not sure if you meant to give Poels both one and two chainrings.
They should be in the mix and can win, Carapaz probably has more power for the finish. Was just thinking Del Toro might be able to get the better of them.
The atmosphere isn’t rarefied enough for Bernal. I’m interested to see how he does when it is though.
Unlike most these days Del Toro seems happy to stand on the pedals. Not a full Contador by any means but his own style just the same.
It’s not my pedantry, I just know you don’t mind something missed in the edit being pointed out. 🙂
Your opening paragraph has “the past ‘to’ weeks”.
“To two or not to 2”
Desmond Tutu.
Think someone will have an off day, a rest day usually causes issues for a few riders. Dont think it will be Issac del Torro who looks lively even if he has a glowering Juan Ayuso riding behind him!
Roglič for a long range all or nothing?
Not his style, but in the last two years he goes for an unusal tacticts. Vuelta 24, catalunya 25 for example.
Not his style at all, he’s often won stage races by seconds built on taking time bonuses and this method looks lost for the Giro. But going backwards on 5% slope on Sunday suggests problems that a rest day might ease but can’t solve.
He’d finally go for a long range attack also at the 2018 TDF I think.
Abandons…after crashing again
Could be a day for a raid by Storačar
Today is Simon Yates day (maybe!). Time to make up for Finestre and got to believe there’s a slim chance of taking the Maglia Rosa too.
There is the chance that he waits and waits and then rewrites things on the Finestre. Could also be odd if his brother is tasked with riding him down.
This is true although his problems that day started long before the gravel of the Finestre and he may not want to leave it so late in proceedings. His twin chasing him would be fun!
I’d even say that his troubles had startes the day before…
Absolutely. The Finestre stage just magnified them.
Finally got to stage 20 last night and catching up here. Wow! This is the kind of prescient insight that’s made INRNG the absolute start of my days for 15 years. 🙂
I don’t know about anyone else but I’d be willing to pay hard cash to not see Quintana win anything at this Giro. Aside from his recent ban, there is something about his unsmiling grimness that I can’t get on board with. Bardet on the other hand I would be well up for.
I don’t pick preferences, just who might cross the line first. His former team doctor has been found guilty in a trial but the verdict has gone to appeal. If this fails then the UCI will open a case into Quintana and while there will be hearings, outwardly it looks difficult for him.
Quite a shame things going that way given the times and ages Quintana has been living through, and most probably keeping one of the cleanest profile around among top dogs, but this are the rules of the game, a broader one than athletes competing in a sport, so abide – or live (or die) with the consequences.
I would love to see Bardet sign off from GTs with a Giro win – my fingers are crossed.
Oh, yeah, @Richard S, too, I’d also love Bardet to get some winning bow out at this Giro.
Not the cheerful type, either, and, hey, another low cadence, death progression, big fondo athlete… so? I’d bet that it’s mostly that people know more about him. Both him and Quintana are also attacking athletes sometimes forced on the backfoot by that well-known context, being daring enough but also intelligent enough, which later made them long-break figures.
To me, knowing about Quintana’s open commitment to society in Colombia on equality in daily life, cleaning-up the federation etc. as for the sport, added up to the mere cycling dimension, just as it happens in a different manner for Bardet, G. Martin, Pinot etc.
Ditto.
I assume he targeted the giro, he was in Tenerife in April, then went pretty much straight into the Tour of the Alps, and then straight into the Giro. Altitude camp -> warm up mountain race -> Giro.
How do you feel about, say, Wout Van Aert’s cheerful type?
As Simmel showed long ago, this are the socio-cultural basis of racism. People who don’t behave as we’re taught, well, we tend not to like ’em. After all, who’s got the gold to run the whole show? We. So you’d better smile. Nobody will ever be interested in walking a further step and know anything more about you, if it’s not in his home media which will of course reproduce the whole implicitly (at best…) racist frame.
I’ve always liked Van Aert, not necessarily because he is cheerful. Whereas Pogacar’s overt cheerfulness, his apparent lack of effort to be unbelievable at a sport I struggle to be on the low side of mediocre at, sometimes (nearly always) winds me up. Who knows why we, or I, like or dislike certain sportsmen/people and teams, sometimes you just do. Its nothing to do with race, or my lack of access to Colombian media. I would put Adam Yates in the same bracket. Both he and Quintana in their style of riding – the fairly low cadence, in the saddle, unchanging, boring drone without any discernible acceleration – are really unexciting to watch in my opinion.
This makes much more sense – while it slightly differs from what you wrote above.
That said, and your case aside (I agree with your point on personal preferences in sport, although they’re also more “eterodirette” than you’re aware of), I still believe that the cultural barrier has an impact – not judging any individual for that – on the chances of people’s sympathies inclining towards a direction or another, but it’s of course a part of the complex mix you hint at.
It’s got a subtle (or not that subtle) impact on the sport of cycling because it’s such a “social” environment, intra- and inter- teams.
Its an interesting point. I’ve – for reasons that are not totally clear to myself – had some permanent, some switching sympathies over the years. Unlike Richard, I started out with an intense dislike for Woet, but it has changed 180 degrees over the years. Same – from a lesser dislike – for Vingegaard, the Yates brothers and Carapaz. For Pogacar and Pidcock its the other way around. I can’t stand either. I’ve never warmed to Quintana or Bernal but – even though he’s always been a very defensive rider – I’ve always had a soft spot for Uran so it’s not a “Columbian” thing.
It’s an interesting study in psychology 🙂
Might Bahrain with Caruso and Tiberi in the top 10 take it up? Could be interesting as others (Bernal, Carapaz etc) will follow and then what do UAE do?
If Roglic starts then I’d expect Red Bull to sit on the front and take it at a “moderate pace”. If so, a good day for the breakaway guys.
Incredibly hard to call this Giro?
Feels like pre2020 large deficits were turned around relatively regularly so Del Toro’s lead is not out of reach for a rider who’s only raced one Vuelta and is yet to show themselves capable in a third week of a Grand Tour in the high mountains. It feels like a rational gambler should be looking to Ayuso and Yates before Del Toro even if he’s the exciting pick.
Like INRNG says this may simply come down to power output of prolonged periods rather than Del Toro using up energy earlier in the race? If he’s short over 40mins compared to those behind then you’d expect it to be a fairly simply grind down the standings in the coming week.
Although it’s hard not to hold out hope for him hanging on…
I also find it funny that Ayuso spent so long on his bull themed logo and Del Toro might come along and pinch not only his Giro but his favoured animal in the hearts and minds of cycling fans…
It’s probably worth remembering that Del Toro finished 19th and 15th in Tirreno and Basque, working for Ayuso/Almeida but also seeming only ever around 30secs behind on key mountain stages.
You haven’t mentioned Storer who you seemed so keen on originally!!
Storer was my dark horse – I think 12th at 4mins25 down isn’t too bad for now? You’d assume in the mountains he might climb into top ten even if there’s a lot of good riders ahead – but I only ever thought he might come good in the last week should he have avoided early bad luck, which he didn’t!
Very aware he never had the team to support a real bid, but we’ve all got to have our unlikely picks haven’t we? I actually thought Derek Gee would string together a better GC bid but I guess like Ciccone you can never know who’s gonna get the luck of the draw.
Ciccone is a real gutter as he was looking extremely good.
I would never have predicted Del Toro would come this good – and would never have seen his result in Siena as he’s been nowhere the last two StradeB’s?
If IDT wins it will be interesting to see how put money down on that!!!!
Del Toro was totally impressive in Jaén, too, although you don’t notice how much from the results only (2nd). Not many top rivals there but handling skills are high as expected having competed in MTB.
What’s interesting, and I recall you appreciated another commentator highlighting that point, is that at the Giro he showed perfect positioning whereas before he was often out of position when his support was needed (Cipressa, Strade – I guess that once Pogi went he didn’t care about killing himself out at Strade; this year he came through 10 minutes back with… Brandon Rivera, who also performed great on the Giro stage).
Where he looked devastating uphill was at Mi-To, and against a field of serious clibers.
I’ve also made a mistake with Derek Gee, he’s in 4th and I thought he was way down strangely – no idea why.
Shocked to see Ayuso dropping, assume illness – with Roglic and Ayuso gone we’re into the most exciting possibilities unless Del Toro is as mighty as it currently seems.
But Carapaz, Yates, Gee all in with a genuine shout currently – maybe Bernal is too far back at 3mins but overall this could be either a barnstorming finale week or a snoozefest if Del Toro is about to announce himself on the grand stage.
Blimey – well we just got our answers!!!
Carapaz is the man in form…
What a story for EF if this is more than just one good day?
Still think Yates will have something to say but difficult to see Del Toro holding on till the end now.
What’s up with Ayuso? And Adam Yates? UAE must be a bit bugged that Del Toro was/is even their final hope on GC in the first place with that kind of experience and firepower in their line up. Seems like they won’t be repeating Jumbo’s triple crown…
Wonder what Almeida will be thinking.
It’s almost like we’ve had a two-week long prologue leading up to today – the start of the real race!
While Del Toro has a pretty healthy headstart, I wouldn’t be surprised to see almost anyone from the top 10 end up in pink by the weekend…we’ve seen a number of times riders who look unbreakable in week two falter in week three (Kruijswijk in 2016, Yates in 2019, Carapaz in 2022), or other riders rise from lower down the GC when the real mountain stages start (TGH in 2020), and this feels poised for something similar…hopefully we’ll get some ambitious, exciting racing to decide things over the last few stages!
A more recent case of rider vs. spectator was Superman López flipping away the Maga-style cap of the running & stumbling “fan” who had unwillingly hit him and made him crash. Race accident, not even an aggression, but the jury decided not to punish Superman. Can’t see that as legal (UHJ might help?) but that day I appreciated the jury’s decision all the same.
What a pity we haven’t enjoyed for longer his presence as a pure climber, probably among the very best at his top or on a good day (Gamoniteiru, Loze, Ventoux, Grossglockner come to mind, the sort of monster climbs where he had an edge on most, including prime Rogla or early Pogi). Yet in his case – unfair as it stays to be punished for doping in post-covid cycling (bad luck and internal feuds between teams got him as a collateral damage, not that sport institutions were really after him…) – well, at least there was some reason of weight for that.
The weather looks absolutely horrendous, which may be a factor..
“The Santa Barbara climb is harder still, 12.7km at over 8%.”
Considering that there’s no flat section before the last climb, I’d have suggested to have its graph on display, too. It’s really a killer climb, not the Mortirolo style, of course, but a (slightly easier) cousin of Giau or San Carlo.
A couple of flattish or even downhill sections (some 800m after the road to mt. Velo, some 500m before the pass itself) prevent from noting that if you focus on the key 9 kms they *average* over 9,5%, never reaching 15% but with long stretches of 0.5 to 1.5km steadily over 10%.
Maybe even the hardest climb this year barring Finestre? (Rivals being S. Pellegrino in Alpe and Tzecore, both with 3kms-long super steep sections, but not has hard for that long – both of them 100 kms from the finish line, sigh).
Let’s see if something happens from some 8 kms to the top and onward…
Wasn’t that postcard the wrong Bolognano? It says Pescara in brackets, so not the Trento one…..
Sorry…………
Blocked 😉
It comes up more detail on the site here than I saw in finding it, wasn’t easy to get a postcard from this area.
are there any random twitters accounts out there monitoring Carapaz’ Watts today?
I know they’re probably unreliable but would be interested