A likely sprint finish in Bellegarde. This is code for “tune in for the final 10 minutes” and that’s problematic but as we’ll see below, Paris-Nice has tried other ways to liven up sprint stages.
Mr Timelier: a lively finish with some moves. The early break was caught but Alexandre Delettre did enough to take the mountains jersey. A micro-boost for TotalEnergies who like other teams are still waiting for wildcard news… Friday could bring answer.
Julian Alaphilippe was the first attacker, with Matteo Jorgenson countering but the pair were quickly caught. Several big names traded moves, Santiago Buitrago launching up the climb out of Les Menuls. The most potent was Josh Tarling being joined by Matteo Trentin and then Mathias Skjelmose. The Dane had an option to take time here but, working his radio, sat on rather than joined in, condemning the breakaway to help team mate Mads Pedersen. You can see why as he probably wasn’t going to win the stage but any time gap plus a time bonus would help his chances overall; and with hindsight Pedersen finished 15th in the sprint.
Aided by a good leadout, Tim Merlier was untouchable in the finish. Arnaud Démare might have had the fastest kilometre because he started from far back to finish second but he was out of the picture, literally in the case of the photofinish but is closing in on a win.
Merlier might dominate the photofinish but he cuts a discreet figure, no swagger, self-deprecating in interviews. A relative newcomer to road cycling after years spent in cycle-cross he’s up to 55 wins now… and could increase that today.
The Route: 183km south by south-east and across flat terrain where the tallest buildings used to be church towers, then came the water towers and now it’s the wind turbines which provide us with clues for today’s racing, this is all exposed terrain and there are many long, straight sections of road. There are two early climbs to tempt the breakaway and Delettre in polka-dots will want to be there.
The Finish: there’s a finishing circuit. On entry it there’s six kilometres to cross the line before going out for a 20km triangular lap on small, exposed roads where large fields are interspersed with wooded sections for cover. The finishing straight is long and flat as they approach the small town of Bellegarde.
The Contenders: Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quickstep) is an easy pick again, his lead out yesterday was effective and his form is good. Indeed today’s course suits him even more without any hills in the way but no two sprints are the same. The last rider to win back-to-back sprint stages here was Dylan Groenewegen in 2019.
Second yesterday Arnaud Démare (Arkéa-B&B Hotels) will find his team all behind him at the start today, the hard part is getting them in front of him going into the final kilometres.
After Lund yesterday for Picnic-PostNL on a hilly course do they try Fabio Jakobsen today?
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Merlier |
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Molano, Pedersen |
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Dainese, Démare, Van Poppel, Jakobsen |
Weather: cool and cloudy, 12°C. A 15km/h breeze from the south means a light headwind for parts of the stage.
TV: France3 for locals and VPN-users, Eurosport as well as Peacock for the US, Flobikes in Canada, SBS in Australia and J-Sports in Japan. Coverage begins at 2.45pm CET and the finish is forecast for 4.30pm.
Postcard from Bellegarde:
Today is a sprint stage. Often this is a euphemism for “tune in for the final 10 minutes”. This changes if it’s windy, as in 2019 when the race visited Bellegarde just like today and we got a spring classic of a stage. Only today should be calm, this part of France just isn’t that windy. Given that wind can’t be invented, what to do?
In 1952 Paris-Nice had a “sprint stage” in 1952 with a difference. This was the official label given to a ~50km stage from Vergèze to Arles (the exact distance varies by source) which followed a 200km stage earlier on the same day. But this “sprint stage” was more than a split stage, a second race of the day. Instead, points were awarded at two intermediate sprints and then at the finish. The stage winner was the rider with the most points.
Artifice? Of course, but today’s Paris-Nice has time bonuses and they often determine the winner in Nice; likewise in many other stage races and other arbitrary rules apply like time cuts. Split stages of two road races in a day are unlikely to return, and using points to pick the day’s winner feels unusual but the use of more intermediate sprints along the way could be used on featureless stages to provide some kind of action further out from the finish and ensure people tune in for more than the final minutes. A blend of authenticity and arithmetic is needed, it has to be obvious riders and viewers alike rather than spreadsheet stuff but this could liven up an otherwise morose Monday.