France may be on the verge of a political crisis but the anticipated four-way battle between Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, Primož Roglič and Remco Evenepoel is on. The cards have been shuffled this season by fate but they’re all here.
If you want all the route details and more from points scales to time cuts to prize pots and more, see inrng.com/tour.
The expected scenario has been turned upside down. Tadej Pogačar‘s decision to ride the Giro d’Italia could be read at the time as a concession to Jonas Vingegaard’s superiority in the Tour, the plan was to win the Giro with its softened route and then come with a top-heavy UAE squad to see what was possible in July, to brandish the Trofeo Senza Fine as a triumph and, just in case, a consolatory excuse. Only after a pink passeggiata Pogačar is almost everyone’s pick and the bookmakers have him odds on. If he lacked rivals in May and comparisons were being made with the likes of Eddy Merckx there were also signs that he has progressed in areas, such as time trials, too.
Can the double cost him? Yes. Racing is different today with riders aware that if they can take on enough carbohydrates then things don’t fall apart like they used to. He won’t be hitting his peak numbers come the third week, nobody does, but he ought to be more stale than most and this year’s route save the hardest for last. He announced yesterday he’s just had Covid too, the virus is doing the rounds and while the general public isn’t worried it’s establishing itself as an added, persistent risk factor alongside crashes and punctures. This isn’t reassuring for his form but he sounds confident.
UAE are a more imposing team, finally built to match the ambitions of their leader. Adam Yates made the podium a year ago and has just won the Tour de Suisse ahead of team mate João Almeida who makes his Tour joined by Juan Ayuso and Pavel Sivakov. All could lead other teams and plenty will be looking in case anyone starts to hint at this and how management prevents hubris. The backroom seems to have sharpened up but they’re still the team that thought a bike change was right for last year’s Combloux time trial.
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease A Bike) has the public profile of a nuclear submarine, as in he seems to surface once every few months. Normally he would have appeared in June but the heavy crash in the Tour of the Basque Country changed everything, a litany of musculoskeletal injuries. So instead of riding away with the Critérium du Dauphiné and starting here as everyone’s pick he’s much more of an unknown quantity. His team did not share his rehab much and he’s said very little too. He’s a private guy and that’s fine, but as a communications exercise it means rivals, the media and spectators are left guessing as to his form. The opening days will be an obvious fitness test culminating in the Galibier on Tuesday but potentially stressful skills test for someone who has not raced in the bunch for months.
The team have long said they would only bring him if he was 100%. Pick your percentage as to his form today but if he’s in top shape then he’s not just a challenger to Pogačar, he’s the two time Tour winner and so he’s not in Firenze ifor the Michelangelo and Botticelli. Even if not at his best, his employers might need him anyway after a torrid season so far where you wonder if the music on the team bus is the blues – “If it wasn’t for bad luck, I wouldn’t have no luck at all” – and coming after an off-season where they staved off a rescue merger because of a sponsorship crisis.
Fortunes and form can change, see the Vuelta last year when he came in undercooked but got better and better so if he’s down in the coming days he’s far from out and can hold on for the third week. Unlike UAE, the team is not composed of first picks but still very strong and should be a force in the race, particularly if they can get to defend the yellow jersey. Matteo Jorgenson has been excellent and consistent this season and so has a crucial role but in the team’s word he is a protected rider but not here to win.
Primož Roglič is back to winning ways having won the Critérium du Dauphiné. If the headline was a win, the subheading was he was dropped on the final mountain stage and saved the overall by seconds aided by time bonuses; but if you want to read an article it’d have to mention that he was climbing very fast despite being sore from a crash.
He’s been so good at picking off stage wins and the time bonuses but can he hang with the likes of Pogačar and Vingegaard and pick them off for the stage win? He’s done it before but he’s 34 and to win outright would make him the oldest winner post-war winner of the race, surpassing Cadel Evans by a few months.
His Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe team – to use the full name which won’t last long – are very solid with Aleksandr Vlasov and Jai Hindley as lead support in the mountains. If he was a trump card then he’d win with “uphill sprint” but “tendency to crash” would be his weak point although this year’s race should be much less stressful after just a couple of days and this added space might help. Would he sign for a podium today? Probably not, the stoic Slovenian has done it before but the paradox is that his best shot at winning is probably not gambling but hoping he can get past a tiring Pogačar and a faltering Vingegaard.
Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quickstep) rides his first Tour de France aged 24. It’s been a long time coming, a spaceship trajectory where he has been around the orbit of the Vuelta and then Giro in order to pick up the momentum needed for this mission to France. Belgium expects, but at the same time ought to know that finding a way past both Pogačar and Vingegaard is a tall order. He has said a top-5 is the goal as a way to anchor expectations.
For all the long-term planning he’s had short-term hiccups. A faller in the Basque Country too, his rehab has seen him back racing in the Dauphiné where he took a time trial win but when the race went to the Alps he was dropped day. Look closely though and he did not implode. His team manager has said out loud what others could see in that he had weight to lose and if he’s managed to address this he can be right in the mix. Only since then he’s been ill and missed the Belgian championships.
He’ll like the two time trials but the first is only 25km, shorter than the Dauphiné stage he won recently, and so he can’t pull out a big lead. The team are all in behind him, no room for lightning legs Tim Merlier but they’re unlikely to get the peloton under their yoke, the test is whether they can be there in the mountains if he is dropped.
One definition of a catalyst is “any substance that increases the rate of a reaction without itself being consumed” and this brings us to Ineos. Several times this season they’ve ridden in their line formation during a mountain stage and brought back the breakaway, but without a leader capable of winning they’ve acted as agents for the likes of UAE and others who have won after their work. We might well see the same again as they aim to place Carlos Rodríguez on the podium. Fourth overall last year until he crashed on the final mountain stage, he’s improved since although repeating is no easy task. The form is improving, the Spaniard won the final stage of the Dauphiné and if this was possibly part of a deal, he had to be up the road with Jorgenson to negotiate.
Egan Bernal continues to make his way back after crashing two and half years ago now and can ride to a high finish as well but also roll up his sleeves to help the team. A year ago the story was Tom Pidcock was learning valuable lessons about riding for GC but interviews and Netflix appearance since have suggested biding his time with controlled efforts was against his nature so we’re more likely to see him on the move for stage wins, starting with Saturday. Geraint Thomas is also doing the Giro-Tour double but in his own words he’s there for the team but he is dependable.
Simon Yates (Jayco-Al Ula) was fourth last year and is back for more. He’s on a team with sprint and stage-hunting abilities but he’s not resource-intensive, often happy to fend for himself. But how to win? Unlikely but he can be up with the best and eye the third spot on the podium.
Richard Carapaz (EF Education-Easypost) has stood on the podium and even been a contender for the overall win. Now he’s likely to be stage hunting. Still the course suits for a high GC finish for the Ecuadorian who can be a tricky customer to bring back if he can slip away. Short term form is an issue after exiting the Tour de Suisse after a crash.
So much for teenagers bursting on the scene, just short of turning 27 Ottawan ornithologist Derek Gee (IPT) makes his Tour debut. He was the revelation of the Dauphiné with a stage win, sixth in the time trial and no worse than fifth on the three Alpine stages on his way to a podium finish. Now what? The Gee-Cee for as long as he can but the team’s big goal is a stage win. He is getting comparisons to fellow “G” as in Thomas as the ex-track rider now turning to grand tour racing but he’s a little more heavyset and this could cost him with the repeat climbs, especially if it’s hot.
Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa-Samsic) is also worth watching as a prospect for the future, he makes his Tour debut aged 23 and his also a little reminiscent of Thomas. His team say he’s here as an apprentice with no concern for the GC and with carte blanche for some stages so adjust your fantasy team accordingly or not.
Eighth last year and the winner of the Col de la Loze – Courchevel stage, can Felix Gall prolong Decathlon-Ag2r La Mondiale’s annus mirabilis with a better GC finish? That’s a tough ask with the competition and the two time trials. Indeed landing a mountain stage win won’t be easy either as he doesn’t pack much of a sprint, it’ll require a reculer pour mieux sauter moment where he loses a bit of time to get more space.
Jack Haig and Santiago Buitrago (pictured) offer two different styles of racing, Haig as a smooth diesel and Buitrago as a darting climber who is a Tour novice but with two Giro stages to his name. Bahrain come with a strong team but are stage-hunting too. Pello Bilbao cracked the top-10 last year too
Enric Mas (Movistar) crashed out on the opening day last year and in recent years the Tour has looked like a warm-up for the Vuelta. At his best he can be a punchy rider but it’s hard to see how he gets ahead of everyone.
Alexey Lutsenko (Astana) can supply his team with a second story. It was only the Giro d’Abruzzo but outrode the UAE team that day and he’s been top-10 twice here before. That looks harder now, especially as Abruzzo aside he’s not finished Paris-Nice, Romandie, the Giro and was a discreet 65th in Suisse.
Two podium finishes in his career but Romain Bardet (DSM Firmenich-PostNL) is after different things these days in his valedictory Tour but is out to race rather than wave goodbye.
Finishing second to Pogačar and ahead of Vingegaard on the road to Nice? David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) has done it before but this was Paris-Nice in 2023 of course. Fourth in the Tour in 2022 too, but how to repeat? There’s an article to be written about whether he’s really a GC contender and he’s arguably best on shorter 10-20 minute climbs, his challenge is longer climbs and in the heat. Enfant terrible Lenny Martinez starts and he can do a decent time trial for his build but probably he and the team would sign for a stage win above a top-10.
Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) can appear on the GC thanks to his snakes-and-ladders racing, losing time in a direct contest with the GC contenders in a summit finish or time trial but climbing back up via the breakaways but with two time trials cracking the top-10 is a tough mission.
Oscar Onley (DSM Firmenich-PostNL) makes his Tour debut aged 21 and he’s shown he can climb with the best at times, as a 19 year old he made a name for himself giving Vingegaard a hard time in the late season Tour of Croatia but the Tour is more than a step up, it’s a rockface to scale so if he’s just finished a creditable eighth in the Tour de Suisse in a denser field and across three weeks cracking the top-10 is a big ask.
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Tadej Pogačar |
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Jonas Vingegaard |
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Roglič, Evenepoel |
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C Rodriguez, A Yates |
The Green Jersey contenders and sprinters
The Polka Dot Jersey contenders
I would guess at Pogacar, Roglic , then everyone else fighting for the last podium spot.
That is how I see it but the rider of interest for me is Jorgenson.
Somehow you have made me doubt Pogacar.
He’s still the prime pick. I try to ignore the bookmaker odds for various reasons (the prices are rarely good, the market is thin etc) but Pogačar’s price looks too small for a three week grand tour, even if it came with a guarantee of money back in case of a race incident like a puncture, crash etc.
I wonder what odds I can get on Ineos occupying 4 places in the top 10 but not on the podium.
Only way that hits is if something weird happens. I can’t imagine all those UAE guys dropping off and letting Ineos take their future Giro GC options by beating them thus ensuring different leaders.
Good pick! ^___^
Richard Carapaz a chance to shine?
He’s been a grand tour contender before but now, that’s a big ask. But he could shine in some stages, the hard part is the same for others trying to get ahead of Pogačar and Vingegaard.
Could be Tadej vs. Jonas redux, could be wide open. Can’t wait to see how it plays out.
Time is finally here.. Thank you for the preview!
Tiny note. Believe I remember Sivakov crashing on a wet decent on the roads behind Nice in the 2020 Tour.
You’re right for Sivakov, I should know better.
Easy mistake to make. In my memory he didn’t make the timecut on day 1 or 2. Result pages on the other hand insists that he finished that tour.
My guess is Pogacar to win impressively but obviously not as dominantly as at the Giro. Then I’ll go Roglic a relatively distant 2nd ( at circa 4-5 minutes). 3rd could be anyone from a high flying UAE lieutenant, through Rodriguez, Jorgensen and Vingo himself. I’ll go with Vingegaard, who’ll lose early and then maybe make a menace of himself. I think Evenepoel will ride high on the podium until an implosion at some point.
All of the above could and probably will end up being proven very wrong!
Christ I hope Pog’s ran closer than that… can see most of it happening tho!
I think it’s got the potential to be volatile this year… who knows how long pogacar’s form will last…
Roglic is battling three guys with far less than ideal preparation….
Is Jorgensen going to wait for Vingegaard? I wouldn’t.
Remco over 3 weeks?
I cannot wait for the next three weeks!
Or even if Pogacar dominates he is explosive and very exciting. I can’t wait.
@Richard S I’d tend to agree with your summary. Maybe Roglic will be slightly closer and maybe Jorgensen will take the third podium spot.
I can’t see how Vinny, who only left hospital on 16 April after 10 days in intensive care, can be that competitive but elite athletes’ recovery isn’t at the same rate as us average riders.
My prediction: Pogi makes it, but only just, screetching up to his limits at the end. Vingegaard implodes early on. Roglic crashes. Remco finishes where his place is, not where Belgium dreams him to be.
Nobody dares to go with Pogi’s attacks, so when the lower ranked contenders understand that they actually had a chance for the GC, they will be already a few minutes too far down.
Good write up!
Will TP’s little problems grow as the TDF goes?
Will JV’s injuries and reduced training slow him especially in the 3rd week?
What stage will PR fall off?
What stage will RE implode or fade?
Whatever happens I hope its a fun and exciting race to watch for 21 days!
Quote: JV “has the public profile of a nuclear submarine, as in he seems to surface once every few months.” Clever, and a good analogy. Chapeau.
Loved it as well.
That’s my favourite sentence of the entire post.
Yes, absolute gold! Chapeau, Mr Ring
Marc Madiot thinks the yellow jersey will be decided in the first few days. I hope he’s wrong and wish to see the defending champ, Roglic, Bernal, Rodriguez and Pogacar in the mix.
I think Evenepoel will shine brightly before flaming out and of course it’ll be someone else’ fault. I hope all the contenders can avoid Covid-19…I really don’t want to read a bunch of “woulda/coulda/shoulda”s
Off to Bologna tomorrow to await Le Beeg Shew’s arrival. Already have a table reserved at one of their best eateries 🙂
I nearly fell off my chair . . . Larry rooting for Bernal – a SkIneos rider to ‘be in the mix’ 😀
Solid prediction. I have a feeling that Derek G could be surprisingly close to the podium, as some of the pre-race favorities drop out or underperform. Also good to see a sober assessment of the Pogi-Jonas chances. Most pundits seem to have written off Jonas Vingegaard completely this year due to his crash and serious injuries. We should remember that Vingegaard has consistently been underrated: He won in 22 because of Roglic, won in 23 because of Pogi’s hand injury and so on. In fact, Jonas has been equal to or beating Pogi in the last three Tours in the high mountains and late TTs. Perhaps understandable due to amazing versality and brilliance of Pogi, but Jonas is a killer in week three and could well nail it again.
Quite probably. But not this year. I think he’ll really struggle with the return to intensity and close racing in the early stages. I’m not expecting him to contend for the podium, perhaps not even finish, but to me his best chance is getting to the first rest day within 3-5 minutes and working back into contention. Chapeau for getting back to the start line after a devastating crash, but the Tour takes no prisoners.
On a similarly pessimistic note I’m expecting three-week reality to bite for Jorgensen and Gee, as much as I’d like especially Gee to do well, although both should make an impact at times.
And another thanks to Inrng for the best reads and insight in pro cycling.
Agree 100% with this
It’s so unpredictable… I won’t even try apart from I expect Pog to win.
There are a lot of wild card maverick chances and chancers but the first few days could reveal a lot.
This will be a welcome distraction from the alluded to political crises in Europe (and, after last night, the US). Pog save us!
It’s not great that so many curveballs have been thrown for each major contender, but it’s fun to go into the tour wondering just what will happen. I just hope Madiot isn’t right that it’ll be over after 3 or 4 days. As a naturalized Canuck, I’m curious about Gee (and didn’t know he’s an ornithologist, which makes me like him all the more) and Jorgenson. (As an American I am thanking god that I am a naturalized Canadian.)
As for RBBH’s name: perhaps just Bubbora? Bullora?
Madiot is just trying to be noticed, breeding headlines out of the dead land… or rather out of thin air.
I didn’t know he was still around, so mission accomplished ✅
Pity he doesn’t know as much as you eh?
The first 4 stages will define the GC – either Pog blows everyone out or we have a race.
If the former, then the Cav-watch and your favourite niche racer could keep it interesting.
Vive le Tour!
How far does Pogacar have to blow everyone out of the water in the first four stages to not have a race left? Three minutes? Four minutes? Five?
As long as Vingegaard, Roglic, Rodriguez, Bernal, Mas, and to a lesser extent Evenepoel are within five minutes I think we still have a race, when considering Pogacar’s long season to date, time losses in 2022 and 2023, and now Covid recovery.
I’m picking Roglic, Rodriguez and Bernal at least will all be well within that. I’m not sure Vingegaard will, but if he does his chances improve with every passing day.
It’s the Tour – when’s the last time it was definitively won in the first week, if ever?
I get your point but 2013 is a good candidate (as st. 8 and 9 are usually included in week1). 2005 too. It’s not just about the minutes, 90″ might be enough, it’s more about how the landscape of possibilities gets shaped. Of course, if the impact of any sudden crack is included, no difference will ever be enough. But barring Vingo, note that Pogi’s crisis in 2022 and 2023 still left him well above the rest in GC, so… the main factor is going to be the revenant’s resilience. I’ll raise my eyebrows if he stays within 3-4′ from the front with such a reduced training *in case the first stages are actually raced hard* (why do they normally train so much? ROTFL). But it wouldn’t be the first time my eyebrows got up there, so relative wonder. Then, it’s to be seen if he gets in great form riding. There’s been a debate here, inrng and science defended it’snot a thing, but (recent) history and real world figures tell a different story, so, yes, that’s possible, too.
Impossible to know how Tadej Pogacer’s recent covid bout has affected him. It has been noticeable over the past few years that an infection knocks a few percent off a rider’s form especially on long climbs. Wonder about Stage 4 up the Galibier. Have seen some talk from locals that the road at the top of the pass has not been cleared of snow yet.
The pass is open, the snow cleared. We’ll see for Pogačar’s lungs.
My understanding is that COVID can affect red blood cell shape and production. This might affect Tadej on the longer high-altitude climbs. Hopefully his RBC count is normal and Jonas is also sufficiently recovered for a competitive Tour.
I think Madiot is correct and Pog will win by a street, and it’ll be over by stage 5. I agree with Hinault, when he says that if “Jonas wins, then I don’t know anything about this sport anymore”. 8 weeks, or less (I doubt he even had a month of hard training), just isn’t enough time to get in Tour winning shape, let alone beat one of the best cyclists ever. If Jonas does somehow win this thing, then he is a Tour God.
Arguably Stef Cras came off worse in the Basque County and has had fewer resources behind him but he’s finished top-10 in the Tour of Slovenia so we’ll see for Vingegaard. We should know soon. If anything Sunday is almost more advantageous for Pogačar than the Galibier in terms of their relative abilities.
Thanks for a great preview. I always enjoy your writing.
So much to ponder this year with the recent crashes. Pretty much anything could happen, but my little bet for this year is on Remco making the podium.
I wonder if Pog having just got over Covid will change the way UAE race the 1st stage. Pre Pog covid, I would have expected them to make this stage as tough as possible to test and try and put time into Vinge. It will be a very interesting watch tomorrow to see how it unfolds.
i dont get why covid is mentioned at super important thing honestly
It’s clearly not the public health emergency it once was. But it’s still highly contagious and an athlete who gets it can see their performance drop, ie if after a 30 minute climb you are 30 seconds down this is a big deal; anecdotally riders with it at the moment are more likely to be, say, three minutes or more down.
So a problem for Tour de France contenders rather than the population at large (with sensitivity to the frail, those with existing respiratory issues etc).
Thanks for explaining. That makes sense
Just dont see it so much as a thing that should be taken on focus
As many people still do & wanna still talk about it all the time
Thats a sickness too:)
However: Keep up the good work
This site is the goat of cycling pages
Greatest of all time
Why is being out sick the week before the Tour “a thing that should be taken on focus”? The hot favorite was sick but it’s not important? At a minimum it impacted his training and at worse he might have issues still.
Riders like Kuss haven’t been withdrawn from the race because they had something better to do.
What a strange point of view. Especially as Mr Ring has just explained the impact Covid can have on a rider.
Why do you think Sepp Kuss didn’t ride? Forgot he had a holiday to Magaluf booked with his mates?
I don’t believe Vingegaard would start unless he’s really close to top form – otherwise, why would he or indeed the team risk his reputation?
Vingegaard is the strongest Grand Tour rider around and he is probably going to prove it for the third time in a row. As for Pogačar, with his recent covid… probably still the second favourite? I don’t think Roglic and Evenepoel stand any chance of overall victory. (Or perhaps even top 5.)
Vingegaard – Pogacar – a surprise of sorts (Jorgenson?)
it’s not as simple as that – you might think you’re in top form and find out your not – there’s no way to mimic a three week tour without doing a three week tour – even if your numbers match previous years, no guarantees your endurance will as Pog found out last year. truth is no one knows, not even him.
excellent nuclear sub ref above.
fetch may never have become a thing, but I hope The Submarine catches on.
long been sad The Tarantula never caught on for Froome.
Exactly. That and the vast majority of racers actually want to race the Tour. It’s the biggest race in their chosen sport.
You’d think so and I think it’s likely yoo. but as said above his team need a result, starting with a stage win. As pointed out a couple of days ago to riders, the Tour can be worth more media attention than the rest of the World Tour combined.
“I don’t believe Vingegaard would start unless he’s really close to top form – otherwise, why would he or indeed the team risk his reputation?”
Really? I don’t believe anyone cares much about a “reputation”. What’s the down side if he’s not up to being a real contender? That he’ll be looked at as a guy who showed-up and gave it a go? Like the guy last year who showed-up even though his preTour build-up was compromised by a crash at L-B-L?
We’ll soon find out, of course.
Last year, Pogacar came to win the race. He was in good form (his TT numbers were good, etc.), had two bad days, but in the end, he simply was weaker GT rider than Vingegaard (especialy in the heat, but as far as I know, Vingegaard produces more watts per kilogram for longer, which is unfortunately rather important nowadays) and his team wasn’t up to the task so he was always going to lose, I am afraid.
Now, Vingegaard is currently the unbeatable GT monster. If the Netflix mockumentary shows anything, it shows the value of mental aspects of the race and racers’ preparation.
(Although based on the available bits of tem communication during the race I would switch the team radio off if I was a rider, because those coaches can be borderline ridiculous and it’s hard to pedal while laughing.)
I suppose Pogacar’s win over him can change the dynamics – or there is at least a danger of it. Is it worth to the team, which seems based on meticulous data-driven approach, to risk sending undercooked Vingegaard to the Tour in case they don’t hope he has a good chance of winning it, perhaps even by riding into form for a Bonette + TT blow?
Perhaps I am just to pessimistic, wanting the panache, crafty rider to overcome the corporate machine (with the caveat of UAE’s sponsors and budget) and preparing for a disappointment.
If Pogi wins, especially by a handful of minutes, it seems to me he almost has an obligation to the cycling gods to go for the Vuelta in a weak field. That would be a pretty great silver lining to the most boring TdF outcome.
He’s saying no to this already… but the Worlds in Zürich with the hilly course and the rainbow jersey is the next goal. His recent interview was interesting as it read like he was almost banking the Tour. Almost mind you.
I know he’s a pretty forthcoming guy, but I don’t think he would say anything but no. There no reason to come of as cocky or give himself extra pressure. If he wins and feels like he can race at all, I have to imagine he considers it. It would be an all time achievement across all sports. If he loses, no one would remotely think less of him. And if he genuinely can’t or won’t do it, give me the GC Kuss repeat! BTW Kuss last year is a great example that all three can be down at a high level.
Can i ask: where was that interview?
He spoke to L’Equipe the other day (behind the paywall) but a lot of the interview appeared on the UAE team website, as if the team PR staff were present and wrote up their account.
Personally, hope he doesn’t and sticks with his original and more technically significant programme.
Don’t really need more of the Kuss farce. Great athletical feat, although in a context which requires to be prudent and await for a full career-long evaluation. But it’s the idea itself of having a competition which is actually void which makes it nearly invalid as a sporting event.
On a whole different level but along the same philosophical lines, Pogi getting a Vuelta *only* because the competition is extremely poor and, unlike the Giro, with no need at all to manage adequately your resources for more serious objectives later on in the season… would be just a record for the stats and journos, not really as significant for the sport.
Err, no, Winning all 3 GTs in the same year would resonate with pretty much everyone (except you clearly) and would really put him on a pedestal/set him apart.
But as he’s not won the Tour yet and he says he’s not doing the Vuelta, it’s a moot point.
Surely not “everyone” given that among Italian *and Spanish* fans in both online and real world I tend to find myself sharing the opinion of a vast majority on this subject. Curious. I guess it’s essentially a literary problem concerning realism.
Roglic’s departure feels significant to me. But I still see Vingegaard as the favourite though because beating him needs a meticulous plan and I’m not sure that’s Pogacar’s/UAE’s style.
I just realized that Alaphillipe and Lafay are both not on the start list, which is sad. I’m far from a JA fan but him not racing the tour is crappy and typical of PL. Lafay, after last year’s success, is sad for another reason. Hate to see injuries keep promising riders sidelined.
Across the entire team the UAE it seems to me the strongest climbing team i can ever recall. Even stronger than Sky in terms of depth. There classics style power is a little lacking so as a team the starts and multiday front pacing will be a little weaker if Pogacar is leading.
Pogacar is my favorite for the win but not hugely because his lead up is compromised with the giro. But with so many having a compromised leadup a feel many riders outside the top 4 could be a winner this year.
Vingegaard is not in my top 5 favourites for the race because i will not bet on his full recovery and training to be at 100%. you can be surprised.
I’m not going to look it up but, on paper, Ineos may be even stronger. Two Tour winners puts them right up there
Allez, Pog
Cav for prime minister.
Sir Cav to you.
More chance of that than winning his 35th stage.
He’s had a cold, big deal….the covid thing is NONSENSE
Covid seems to trigger responses in people too.
A cold is a big deal if you’re riding the Tour, it can be game over for a GC bid. Plus the Covid virus seems to be much better at spreading than the clumsy cold viruses so it is a summer thing as well.
Yup, millions of people died from the cold. And hundreds of thousands of scientists are in on the conspiracy of pretending this is a different virus, and all for… absolutely no reason.
Sure, there are no severe symptoms, no long covid etc.
Sigh.
This was me – just to be clear.
And just to be clear, I was mocking the flat-earther ‘Anonymous’ above.
Thanks for the amazing preview and all the related Tour articles.
34 doesn’t sound that old “he’s 34 and to win outright would make him the oldest winner post-war winner of the race, surpassing Cadel Evans by a few months.”
Is it such an outlier, how old was Thomas when he won and came second? Froome and ‘he who shall not be named’ probably weren’t much off when they won their final tdF’s