Tour de France Stage 18 Preview

A tricky time trial with some fast moments and some surprisingly steep sections making harder than a classic mountain time trial. How much will Chris Froome extend his lead by today?

Stage 17 Wrap: ideally the stage would have got a separate write-up yesterday evening but it wasn’t significant enough. Not that nothing happened, the breakaway took a long time to form as they did 51.8km in the first hour but finally a 14 rider move went with the two breakaway picks of Rafał Majka and Ilnur Zakarin among them. Others gave chase but Peter Sagan was in the move too and got work on behalf of Majka to keep them at bay.

Over the top of the penultimate climb Majka jumped away with Jarlinson Pantano and the two started the final climb to the Emosson dam together with Ilnur Zakarin quickly bridging across soon afrer. On paper it looked like a contest between Majka and Zakarin as the two best climbers but the Pole seemed fried by the heat and so it was a battle between Zakarin and Pantano and the Katusha rider cracked his rival. He might have gone solo for the win but it seems Zakarin cannot escape a positive doping test from 2009, he is one of the five riders in the race to have a past doping suspension hanging over them.

Behind the GC battle was another exercise in suffocation. Let’s not confuse this with a parade, it’s not that nobody would attack it’s that nobody could. Dan Martin tried, did a boomerang and it was only in the final kilometre that the top riders were split apart with Richie Porte proving the strongest and so far keeping the “he can’t do a grand tour” maxim at bay. Alejandro Valverde slipped two places to seventh overall while Tejay van Garderen was the big loser of the day, not just falling out of the top-10 but coming in 18 minutes down after cracking on the Forclaz. Once again Wout Poels was instrumental in locking down the race. Chris Froome is in a commanding position but isn’t running away with the race, he only put eight seconds into Adam Yates and 11 into Romain Bardet but in these small margins there’s still a gulf.

The Route: a 17km uphill time trial with 765 metres of vertical gain. The course is in five parts:

  • First from the start is a fast section, downhill and then flat. It’s 3.5km and on a freshly surfaced road. It’ll pay to have aero bars

  • Next is the Domancy section, 2.9km long, aka the “Route Bernard Hinault” as the road has been renamed in tribute as it’s where “The Badger” won the 1980 World Championships road race. It’s on fresh blacktop but that’s the only help as the road pitches up and if this section is 8.9% on average it’s often 10-12% with irregular ramps and hairpins with steep apexes. There’s a €5,000 “Bernard Hinault prize” for the fastest rider through this section
  • The third section is 5km long and on the main road through Combloux. It’s a steady drag, the slope varies but gradually and is typically 5% for most of the way. This is a chance for the powerful riders to up the pace, get into a tuck and use aerodynamics

  • The fourth section is the hardest, it’s 3.5km at 4.8% average which sounds fine and looks banal but it’s a reminder that the map is not the territory because there are two “wall” sections not visible in the profile, the first is 350m at 13% but with a middle part reaching 16% and then, after the third time check, an 800m section at 9% with portions at 14% and this irregularity makes the course much more awkward than it looks on paper
  • Finally there’s the 2km at 6% descent into the swank ski resort of Megève and it’s fast and nothing too technical.

The Contenders: it’s hard to see past Chris Froome to the point of wondering how great the margin of his victory will be. He was second in the Ardèche time trial stage last week and is obviously climbing well. His only problem today is having to cope without Sherpa Poels.

Richie Porte is the momentum pick, he’s on the up and as long as he can pace himself better than last week should set a big time. He was climbing better than Froome yesterday or as least looking more explosive in the final moments until Froome spun his way across.

Can Tom Dumoulin win? Normally this is not a course for him, if it looks rolling on the profile the reality explained above should make it too hard for him. To his advantage though he came in 30 minutes down yesterday meaning a relative rest. Still it’s likely the steep parts take their toll compared to the likes of Froome and Porte.

Bauke Mollema gets a chainring today. I got some flak for not giving him one yesterday but if a top-5 place seemed within reach on the stage the win seemed out of the question. However today he can ride at his own tempo rather than respond to attacks and his ability to suffer could see him haul himself to a result.

The local pick is IAM Cycling’s Jérôme Coppel, strong in the Ardèche time trial and able to climb well in conditions like this, a top-5 is possible.

Chris Froome
Richie Porte
Thomas, D Martin, T Dumoulin, Mollema, Quintana

Weather: the chance of rain early on but dry for the later starts. It’ll be a hot 32°C at the start in Sallanches and humid 25°C higher up at the finish in Megève. There will be a southerly wind meaning a headwind in places but much of the course is sheltered.

TV: riders off in reverse GC order with Sam Bennett at 10.51am CET and the full list of riders and times can be found here.

TV coverage starts at 2.00pm CET and Chris Froome is forecast to arrive in Megève at 5.30pm Euro time.

136 thoughts on “Tour de France Stage 18 Preview”

  1. Yates had looked to be clinging on in before rest day but did really well yesterday. It was Mollema struggling in GC group, like they switched roles.

    Quintana not firing again, he has been hugely underwhelming in this tour and it’s not clear why. I mean in the past Valverde has been accused of not working for him, but his attack cost him time as he tried to isolate Froome plus Quintana has not exerted himself as such normally sitting on a wheel but when he has attached it’s not been sustained and easily closed down. Woet Pouls was hugely impressive once again as he helped shut down attacks and reel them back in.

    Seems Martin was hoping they’d let him go but no such luck and his efforts caught up with him.

  2. Says something about this tour that I am more excited about the time trial than the mountain stages which have been largely uneventful. The giro was awesome this year.

    Hoping Porte can put in a big one like the dauphine tt and prove the haters wrong. Because tvg proved them right yesterday. I honestly think without the puncture and crash he’d be second right now.

    • Indeed, so far the only surprises in this tour’s GC battle Quintana being not a contender and Porte not cracking despite some bad luck and not too great support.

      • Is Yates not a surprise? I would not have expected him to be so close to the top of the GC so close to Paris.
        Were you not surprised by Froome’s downhill attack or the green-yellow breakaway in the wind?

    • Are people who don’t think TVG is up to it ‘haters’? Or realists?
      BMC making TVG co-leader with Porte was purely down to his nationality. We see this time and again – Movistar with Valverde last year, the constant chatter of Thomas becoming a GC leader when Sky have so many better GC candidates, Aru being favoured over Landa in last year’s Giro. I always find it deeply disappointing.

  3. Thank you very much for the detailed route description IR – down to road surfaces. I guess you have also ridden this section of the route. Makes the TT appear a little more interesting and demanding than one would have expected from the official race presentation.

    • Very much so.
      It should be a good competition this, I fancy Porte and Mollema to do well.
      Mollema, in particular, seemed to suffer with the heat yesterday, but the shorter effort should not affect him as badly.

      Telling that Quintana does not even merit a mention, never mind a chainring.
      An Alpine irrelevance, who’d have ever thought that?

    • All of the important stages have been checked out in advance, this one was a surprise as there’s a main road between the start and finish and at first it looked like it’d be this all the way but the turning after 11km to the smaller road and the “wall” sections was a nasty surprise.

      • You’ve described it perfectly – it’s a road I know well.

        The pull up to Domancy is a real test. Narrow, winding, and it seems to never have a constant gradient – like a back road in the Dales. It will be difficult to get into a rhythm on that section.

        Combloux will drag, be hot but it has a cracking backdrop of the Bionassay face of Mont blanc.

  4. I’ll be interested to see how Yates goes today. At his own admission TT is not his strong point but today’s must be more to his liking that a longer flat TT.

    • I guess it depends on the relative impact of the climbs. Yates placed very well on Les Gets on the Dauphine, beating Mollema quite handsomely.

  5. Thank you for a great review, I did the course a few weeks ago and it’s exactly as you describe it. There will be little flow today for the riders. Just one thing, it should read “swanky ski resort of Megève” (not Morzine).

  6. Well … Good for Froome he seems to want it more than anybody else this year or has something that allows him this new found panache cause according to Le Mond there are still no miracles in cycling. No one else deserves to win. Same predictable race, tracking wheels hoping Froomey will have an off day. I think the only way to beat Sky is to actually hit them hard from stage one ie race bikes not just Tour de France

    • I really don’t think the riders are sitting and waiting for Froome to crack, they’re holding on for the best they can. Froome is strong but look at the results yesterday, as said in the piece above Porte was stronger and Yates, Bardet were only seconds away too. It’s different to, say, Nibali in 2014 when he’d just storm off solo on every summit finish.

      • But you get the impression, had he wanted to, Froome had enough in reserve to do a “Nibali” style ride too. It’s sad (for the race spectacle), that he can ride around the course within himself and still finish 3-4mins ahead of his nearest competitor.

        • Indeed. As others pointed out, it is not helpful to pull wool over eyes (I don’t know a fitting phrase in english, sorry) and always look on bright sides or pull out favourite villains like Russia, Nibali, Katusha and Astana, while other questions are more or equally pressing.

          This deflecting just makes people doubtful and angry, as can be increasingly seen here in the comments. The pressure to say nothing negative about certain things in the comments here is high, so if people say something anyway, it means something. It also spawns things like the reopening of the discussion about the identity of inner Ring, as one at times is left wondering about reasons/intentions (btw:I wish this discussion would subside, I don’t think it is a good one, but that’s another debate). This is not in the least meant offensive or accusatory, it is solely an observation about dynamics.

      • Was Porte really stronger or is that just your inference because he was the attack that got away? Froome spun over to him easily and crossed the line looking like he’d done nothing. Froome does not have the burden of having to attack anymore so we won’t know what he could or couldn’t have done.

      • I agree once they get to the climb it is hang on but what about the getting to the climb – same old race let the escape go and wait. It has gotten too predictable and too comfortable for the contenders. They loose anyway why not put in a valiant challenge.

    • As with any rider you can have the best team in the world but YOU still have to stay on their wheels till the final moment then attack and that’s exactly what Froomes able to do
      Ritche just hasn’t got the team and TJ was cooked from stage one

  7. 5 riders with a ban, I make it 6 (including contador, no longer in the race of course). Zakarin, Contador, Valverde, Costa, Richeze and Schleck

  8. Can we re-open the discussion of “who is the Inner Ring”? The first hand analysis and first rate commentary on a part-time blog raises more questions than it answers.

    Great preview as usual. Go Porte!

    • No, I’m afraid he didn’t tell me 😉 Maybe he wants to use a TT bike all the way. You can try this and climb the steep parts standing on the pedals. The course climbs like a staircase, there’s no one flat section and then an uphill part to change on and having the TT bike would be good for the final descent into Megève.

      • I saw a video with Doctor Hutch this morning saying that he expected the serious riders to use road bikes with tri bars. So I too thought it strange Froome had been on the TT bike on the rest day. The good doctor also said a bike change would be stupid on this course and would net you little to no advantage.

        • I’m sure they’re testing both the road and TT bikes on the course right now. Famously Froome won the 2013 TT by switching bikes at the top of the climb when Contador didn’t, but the final descent is a lot shorter this time.

  10. Think you’re underestimating Dumoulin. Think he’ll win this. Like the Basque TT he won or the TdS TT he won this has some real walls, he did very well on those. His margin to number two won’t be over a minute like on Friday, though.

  13. “He might have gone solo for the win but it seems Zakarin cannot escape a positive doping test from 2009, he is one of the five riders in the race to have a past doping suspension hanging over them”
    While this tour is testing new levels of boredom, I still as always enjoy these reads and (mostly) also the comments on it.

    Sad thing is, the results prove passive riders right, those who try and ride agressive, usually get dropped in the final part.

    One thing: Sorry but I dont get the meaning of “might have gone solo BUT it seems..”

    he cracked the colombian, went and finished solo, so why the conditional?

    Also on a sidenote, regarding the “origin” of today’s winner…
    (and i know this is prejudice, but I just cant help… history with Rusvelo etc. doesn’t bleach the records either…)

    I was shocked to read the conclusions of the McLaren report on the russian doping system. detailed analysis here in german: http://www.sueddeutsche.de/sport/dokumentation-mit-tafelsalz-um-mitternacht-hinter-dem-mauseloch-1.3085900

    bottom line: when the secret service is involved widespread in tampering urin samples this is just another level….

      • While I guess i understand what you are trying to say: I slightly disagree if there are good ones and bad ones… (and I totally dont care if its russian american or else)

        But if there is evidence on such a large scale that comes to the surface (as this Mc-Laren report), than I think it needs to be mentioned at least.

        but different topic and enough of that from my side, this will be the talk anyway leading up to the olympics…

    • It’s a perfect “guilt by association” given he’s got history, is Russian, rides for Katusha which has had more positive tests than Astana: all this can explain why trust is low but doesn’t equate to guilt.

  14. Dumoulin vs Froome: Belgian tv showed a comparison between Froome and Dumoulin in the time trial (stage 13). Dumoulin was a lot faster on the last climb than Froome. Of course the TT today is a different cup of tea, but it makes me wonder if the time that Dumoulin no doubt will loose on those very steep (but not very long) sections described by INRNG, is not compensated by his faster riding on the less steeper ones and the descent. I think it will turn out very cloose between the two, with a very good Porte that will join them. The ‘freshness’ of Dumoulin will be of importance too, like INRG mentioned. And he is literally all dressed up for the TT (with his special skinsuit, designed at Delft university). For me Dumoulin is the favourite, with Froome coming very close, Porte third.

    • Dumoulin is just much better rested and has put in less effort over the course of the Tour as a whole. He might win but its not a true test man against man for the reason already given. The Olympic ITT will be though.

  15. I was a little confused by Astana’s tactics yesterday. Sky want to sit on the front and set a high tempo to limit attacks. So why did Astana think that if they did it that it would benefit them? They said they wanted to make the race hard but all they ended up doing was burning their two top domestiques and helped Sky preserve 3 of their own. Also I thought Aru liked fast/slow hard/easy tempo where as lots of the top 10 like constant effort, so if anything it benefited everyone else!

    Also, looks like Movistar have the only super domestique that can break sky domestiques. His was the only ‘attack/effort’ that saw sky lose a man. Cant help but think that if Valverde Sat up more often on other days like a propper domestique then he could really take it to them on key days.

    • Valverde is very predictable on climbs when in tandem with Quintana. When he attacks you know he is cooked and this is his “looked at me, at least I tried for 5 minutes” effort. He then predictably falls back. I genuinely think Sky do not fear his climbing at all.

    • But if Valverde sits up on other days, he becomes zero threat on GC, so Sky can just let him go, so they lose the (perceived ?) tactical advantage of 2 GC threats.

      Having said that, Frome/Poels/Nieve/Landa/Henao – nobody else has the stength to compete with that.

      Yesterday saw Nibali and Rosa act as 2 extra climbing engines on the Sky train, as someone else pointed out above – strange (non) tactics from Astana.

      • Yesterday it seems Rosa hasn’t legs to stick to the plan. It was hilarious Aru’s face and Rosa pull a couple hundreds meters and give up. It was Anacona leading when TJV was dropped. I sensed there was plan with Astana and Movistar but their leaders didn’t finnished the job.

    • yep – there is not a lot of strategies you can do if you dont have the legs.
      I also see a lot of comments requesting this kind of attitude from Movistar and Astana, but in the end it only helps Sky.
      A possible, suicidal strategy would be to do something similar in an early climb to try to isolate Froome, but still hard as 1) Sky has a strong field that can crawl back time and be back to the contenders group and 2) Froome dont need to match every attack as he has a buffer and Porte/Yates/Mollema would also help with the task

    • If by that you mean will Poels become better and supplant Froome as Sky’s go to man, then I don’t think so. He made a choice to be Froome’s domestique (according to an ITV4 interview I saw last night) but hopes to get his own chances too. And Sky haven’t exactly stifled his progress. His stock has risen considerably in Sky colours. He has other strings to his bow that don’t involve Froome too (such as L-B-L) so he can take a few wins and still be the most trusted lieutenant as well.

      • Much of what you’re saying applied to Froome as well, in the Wiggins days. Froome also made the choice to be Wiggins’ domestique, and was awarded with opportunities to go for his won succes in other races (meaning: not the TdF). If anybody was “not stifled” and had his “stock risen” (incredibly much so) by team Sky, it’s Froome. So in that respect, there is a striking resemblance. The reason I think Poels is not likely to replace Froome is simple: Poels is not British (or, more specific: Can not pass as British). As J Evans commented elsewhere on this page, the nationality of your TdF GC guy is often still a thing in cycling.

        Of course, anybody who has heard the stories (true or not, I don’t know) of how Froome came to replace Wiggins after (during) the 2012 tour would have a completely different perspective on the team dynamics at play here. They would likely say Poels is just too much af a nice guy.

        • Froome didn’t get to ride his own race at the 2011 Vuelta – he lost that due to being incorrectly used as Wiggins’ domestique, even though it was obvious that Froome was stronger, particularly after he beat Wiggins in the TT.

        • Which races did Froome get to ride for himself prior to the 2012 Tour? Froome and Wiggins were too similar to co-exist and that is why, after that date, they didn’t. To that extent the Froome/Poels situation is not the same. Poels is a credible one day rider in certain circumstances whereas Froome has no form there. Poels has also been used in week long races as the team leader. I don’t recall that Froome ever was pre-2012 Tour.

          • Ok, I see I should have been more precise: It’s a fact that Froome was awarded opportunities to go for his own changes… (and now follows the point I obviously should have added:) … *in his contract*. That’s a fact.

            It is said that this is actually what started the whole Wiggins-Froome rivalry: Froome asked for what was promised in his contract (a change to go for his own opportunities), but Wiggins would have nothing of it. This then spiralled way way out of control into pure blackmail, backstabbing, etc. It’s probably best to leave the story at that, because (a) I obviously don’t know what I’ve heard is true, and (b) I don’t want INRNG or myself to face defamation claims.

    • Doubt he’s quite of that level but does seem (by far) the strongest Skybot atm and the most likely to actually go for a GT (maybe Landa too if he refinds his form). Think they’ll go for a Pinot or Kelderman, someone who they can mold into the complete package.

        • Note sure about “either” Yates, their policy onprevious doping bans will likely put a stop to Simon joining. And who knows, if their loyalty/attachment is anything like the Schlecks, it might make Adam think twice too. Pure speculation of course.

    • I think he’d have to up his TT game by quite a jump to be a credible threat to Froome…

      also Sky have been clever at rotating their domestiques – Landa clearly has a job this tour to take the train up to c. 7km from the line, and then he rolls in, then Nieve then Henao/Poels etc… I imagine there is a big difference between getting the odd day off at the back, TTing without pressure, and the chance to roll the last few kms, as opposed to being involved in the pointy end day in and day out.

  17. I thought that Froome did not look at the top of his game yesterday though it is often difficult to tell. He can look to be struggling just before launching a stinging attack. I had thought Richie Porte was a good bet for stage win as I had a suspicion that Chris Froome would not try too hard to beat him given that they are still friends and Froome clearly owes him a lot for past successes.

    The most impressive ride was from Adam Yates, unless either Bauke Mollema can recover or Richie Porte has a storming few days, second place must be a real prospect. Whatever happens from now until Saturday Adam Yates’ performance has stood out. He has not had any great support in the mountains from his team mates but he is showing far better than many others tipped beforehand. He must be a real prospect for a GT victory in the very near future maybe even a serious competitor to Chris Froome.

    • think that’s wishful thinking (but fair enough it’s a little dull at the mo) – I think it’s impossible to say whether F was weaker than usual or just being conservative with the next few days in mind as he didn’t need to attack. My money’s on the later.

      & those sorts of gradients do usually mean late attacks with small time gaps anyway, so not the place for a Ventoux/Aix3D/PstM demolition – seems a well planned route with Arcalis also unlikely to give large gaps (for opposite reasons) – guess Ventoux being shortened meant it came into this bracket as well. Shame about the TT!

      Think the later of the above F reasons is far more likely given the ease with which he came across to Porte once Q was gone (have a feeling he didn’t want to expend any energy dragging Q anywhere (but that ship may have finally sailed given yesterday’s result) so bridged in two halves).

      Just tactics as opposed to tiredness – shame the final stage is an uphill finish, we may have seen fireworks then if so.

      Yates phenomenal yesterday….

  18. Very poor tactics of Astana and Movistar. Really the inverse they should do.

    I agree Froome is not at his best, but this was planned. Last year, he was fading the last two mountain stages. Quintana didn’t recognise it, until 5 km from the arrival on Alpe d’Huez, where Froome was rescued by his teammates, in better shape that day than himself. So, this year Froome planned to keep his form till Paris. He is very lucky Quintana is a shadow of the normal Quintana. And grateful the other contenders are cowards and just defending their own place. Contenders not able to attack in the last km of the final climb, should attack and attack again in the early climbs and descends.

    The only contender at a good level is Porte. But he didn’t get the opportunity to attack early on the final climb. What he should have done. Considering he lost almost two minutes due to a flat in the first stage, he could be allowed to take some advantage.

    If Porte is not the better today, the Tour is done. Quintana, Aru, Martin and co are going to lose time. And not seconds. Maybe Mollema, if he has a better day, could limit the damage. And for the stage, a good and fit Dumoulin is the number one contender today.

    • cowards??? bit harsh…. if you don’t have the legs you don’t have the legs…. and bet you’d be pretty stoked with 2nd in the TDF??

      also ‘at a good level’ – come on? these are top professional athletes, not toys, they’re all at good levels, just sometimes some people are better than others – no need to talk about them in such a derogative way.

      hard to say whether Froome’s declining – could have easily just been conservative tactics with hellish upcoming days…… but thanks for telling us what we already knew (minus the crucial detail he may have been ill last year, as Quintana may be ill now…) about 3rd week last year.

      It’s very hard to castigate Quintana for his tactics last year – if you’d been absolutely decimated on Pierre St Martin, would you suddenly a week later think, ‘I can have this guy’? Give him, and everyone a break.

      They’re all good at what they do and giving their all, Sky and Froome are just better this year as Nibali was in 2014 – that race was over a lot sooner than this one!!

      • When you are not as strong as Froome, but have good legs and good climbimg abilitys, you have to change tactics. Not attacking at the last 2 K of the final climb. But attack where you have a chance to attact. Where it’s not that steep, on a hill, in a descend. You have to talk with the other contenders, and attact one by one, or to or tree at the time. Even the at the limit (?) scientific prepared Sky-team could not ripost to all attacks. Once a small group formed with contenders, and the Sky-train splitted, it’l last a little before the real chase could start. Fresh teammates (not collaborating) in the break of the day should then wait en help their first man.
        What we see now is that all contenders are just riding for their place. The podium, the top ten. Wat a shame.

        • One problem with “all ride together against sky to then ride it out amongst them” is, that porte rides with sky. So there the phalanx has it’s first crack, as BMC can’t be counted upon. There may be, probably are, more cracks, that we don’t see from the outside.

          • Isn’t the issue more that the risk of missing out on a 2nd/3rd podium place is too high?

            Dan Martin had a stab yesterday & then suffered, fading.

            Mollema and Yates have played a relatively safe game & are wining, certainly against their expectations.

        • “attact one by one, or to or tree at the time”

          Did anyone else hear Sean Kelly’s voice when they read this? Delightful surprise…

      • ‘It’s very hard to castigate Quintana for his tactics last year’ – not at all. Last year, Quintana and his team sat up and waited for Valverde at times.
        If Q had tried sooner, more often and from a longer distance he might have won.
        The only way you can win is by trying to win.
        Same goes for the rest of them this year. Not saying it would work, but no-one has tried.
        Might be better for their CV, but I for one am not impressed by 3rd.

        • Movistar made the same, or at least very similar, ‘mistake’ this year in stage 8: After Valverde had all but eliminated himself by going after a feint attack by Henoa on the climb, Quintana sat up on the top before that final descent. Quintana was obviously waiting for Valverde to lead the descent for him, you even could see Quintana looking back trying to find Valverde “where is my descent lead?”.

          But of course in the 8 to 10 seconds that Valverde needed to get from his position at the back of the group to Quintana at the front of the group, Froome was already gone (well spotted by the Sky DSes). Froome gained almost nothing more during the descent. Had Valverde not gone after Henao, he (likely) would have been there with Quintana at the front of that group, Quitana (likely) would not have waited those 8 to 10 seconds, Valverde (likely) would have kept the group together and lead Quintana down safely, and Froome (likely) would not have gotten away (I believe).

        • Usually agree with you J Evans – but these are just words which are easy to throw around in hindsight – whether or not Quintana could really do what you’re suggesting (and no one but he could know what shape he was in) you have to concede it’s as likely to fail as succeed and not this nailed on success the way people comment about it now.

          Not even taking into account the above of the fear Froome would have installed post Pierre St Martin.

          Also I don’t think you’re not taking whether the routes suited this kind of raid – there was a long flat section preAlpe d’Huez last year that I think any tactician would have felt Quintana staying away would have been difficult in itself and draining for the attack on Alpe D’Huez + yes you can say he had a man in the break, but that was climber, who also wouldn’t have faired well across the plain and would have then have been less help on Ad’H.

          I think any sensible manager there would have said to do exactly what Quintana did….

          Finally – why is everyone suddenly saying 2nd,3rd etc is not impressive??? It’s a phenomenal achievement? Would you genuinely disagree if you were in their position not be happy with a podium in the TdF?

          People are getting too demanding….

          Same for @Jean above – you tactics are deluded, teams and people do not combine like that in a bike race, you’re asking too much. And like J Evans, you have to factor in it’s as likely if not more likely to fail than succeed – especially as you’re talking about dropping his team, not Froome himself. There’s every chance Froome can just hit back twice as hard once you get to squeaky bum time and bid them all adios.

          Your tactics do not add up in the real world – cycling isn’t football etc, you don’t have the space for inventive tactics in the same way, usually the strongest generally won out and it’s often just a tale of weight/power.

          • It wasn’t hindsight: I was saying it during the race – on these pages.
            All I’ve ever said is that it might have worked.
            And fear shouldn’t have stopped Quintana from trying.
            For me, it’s winning or losing – just my opinion. I can understand Yates and Mollema riding as they are, but for some (Quintana this year and last year) a podium isn’t really worth anything (another 2nd wouldn’t help Quintana’s career).
            As Jean says, teams could work together to combat Sky. Rarely happens, but it is an option – and has happened in the past.
            Cycling is often a tale of weight/power, but the strongest rider doesn’t always win. Tactics, team decisions, etc. can win or lose you a race.
            Examples of where this was possibly the case:
            2011 Tour – Schleck doesn’t attack Evans soon enough
            2011 Vuelta – Froome supports a weaker Wiggins
            2012 Giro – Rodriguez doesn’t attack Hesjedal enough
            2012 Tour – Froome supports Wiggins
            2012 Vuelta – Rodriguez and team let Contador escape
            2013 Vuelta – Nibali underestimates Horner
            2014 Giro – Quintana rides away whilst others don’t follow
            2015 Giro – Landa isn’t allowed to ride his own race
            I stress that all these are merely possibilities of where the outcome of the race could have been different – none are facts.

  20. Having seen you practically tell us the winner in your opening paragraph “……How much will Chris Froome extend his lead by today?” I half expected to see him mentioned twice in the chain rings: 3 chain rings “Froome(large win)” 2 chain rings “Froome(small win)” or vice versa.
    Let’s hope the race organisers manage to control the crowds properly or the steep sections are going to be an obstacle race for the riders.

  21. Yates lost 48 secs to Quintana in the Tour of the Basque Country TT this year (but was still top 5 or so). I wonder if the tables turn today. I think we now have a fascinating fight for the podium. If one goes with momentum, you wouldn’t be mad to suggest that there could be two Brits and an Aussie on the podium in Paris. Heaven knows what might have been if the OBE doctor hadn’t screwed up Simon Yates’ TUE application – could we be facing a “Brownlee brothers” scenario in cycling in 2-3 years time? (For those who don’t know what I’m on about, look up triathlon.)

    For the stage itself, I agree with posters here – Dumoulin is my 5* favourite ahead of Froome. I’ve ridden these climbs too – they are irregular but, to me, Froome just doesn’t quite look his imperious best to make the climbing count against a fresh Dumoulin.

    • Interesting point there, the inclusion of Simon to this race would have been a tasty scenario as the two seem to get on very well as you would expect of brothers. It may at times added a very good dynamic, sadly not to be! thanks Doc.

      • I presume that the ‘faux pas’ by the OBE Doctor means that there is no chance of Simon Yates becoming a Sky rider along with Adam…..Adam will not go where Simon cannot go, there is history there. With Adams stock rising daily, he has a bright future……I am hoping he doesn’t do a GeraintT like last year and blow up in the next couple of days…Chapeau to the fellah

        • Pretty sure that Sky would fudge that if they really wanted the Yates brothers (and if the Yates brothers wanted to join). It would just be put down to medical incompetence.

        • That’s an interesting point. A clever journalist (calling Cyclig Podcast crew) should probably ask Brailsford what the offical line is to Sky hiring someone if they’ve been tripped up for an “unintentional infraction” or whatever the UCI deemed it with Simon Yates. I’d reckon Sky would still hire them (surely it’s not “doping” per se and so doesn’t offend their zero tolerance approach), but, hopefully, they stay where they are for a while anyway!

          • Brailsford screwed up badly when he only offered Simon a contract – and he knows it. Already tried to hire both Simon and Adam when their original 2 year neo contract was coming to an end, but thankfully they turned him down and re-upped with OGE instead. Can’t see them ever accepting repeated offers from Brailsford

        • Sky have bent their founding principles before when they needed to(no doctors with cycling experience was one of them). No doubt they’d find a reason to do so again, if the Yateses generally wanted to come.

        • I wouldn’t be so sure the Yates boys are bound to each other. They had different routes to turning pro (Simon with the GB Academy, Adam on the French amateur scene) and they said on the Cycling Podcast Friends’ Special that they hired different agents purposefully in order to not be seen as a package.

    • A more interesting scenario would be whether Chaves and the Yates brothers are willing to act as each others’ domestiques in a Grand Tour. OBE aren’t exactly bursting with climbers.

      • Simon Yates success has been all the more remarkable considering the lack of support he’s getting – poor old Ruben Plaza must be knackered after the work he did in the Giro also. Let’s hope Yates avoids a puncture or such like over the next few days…

        • noel,

          Adam is on TDF, Simon was caught on “unintentional infraction”. Likely we will know if Chaves can work with Simon on Vuelta accordingly with Procycling’s provisional list.

      • Quite. If they put those three together (and Ruben Plaza) you are some way towards a Sky-style mountain train, and with Hayman, Bewley etc Orica have the flat and windy covered. But the riders have to be willing to work in that way. And whichever of the Yates’s or Chaves was designated leader still has to actually out-climb and out-TT Froome.

        Maybe Orica might decide to full-on target Giro and Vuelta with their GC riders and in the Tour stick with stage hunting?

        • This would be a good strategy for OBE – develop the Yates and Chaves at the Vuelta or Giro, and then in the meantime target stages at TdF – which they’ve done with solid results in the past.

  23. As an aside to todays TT, I was reading a fascinating interview with Raphael Geminiani in much respected cycling publication and he mentioned in the 1947 edition of the Tour, the individual TT was a mere 139km!! admittedly though NOT uphill ha ha.

  24. Should Cancellara have stayed in the Tour to help his team leader who is currently 2nd?
    The upcoming stages are mountainous, but the tendency this year has been for the likes of Stannard/Rowe/Kiriyenka to lead the GC contenders over the intial mountains quite slowly. Ergo, Cancellara could probably be in a position to help Mollema early in the stages.
    And he would seem to have very little chance of Olympic success.

    • Can’t say that I have noticed Trek helping Mollema that much to be honest. He just tags on the GC group and hangs on. Probably not that much missed for his chances I think.

  25. Remind me, Zakarin is one of the new generation, right?

    (Kittel too – who has “never seen anything like doping” in his career, funny that for someone who appealed a ban all the way to CAS).

    • Let us remind of that “all the way” in this case means two steps of appeal: first to the Deutsches Sportschiedsgericht and the second to the Court of Arbitration in Sport. It was Kittel who appealed to the first and when the German sports court ruled in his favour the Nationale Anti Doping Agentur appealed to the CAS and lost again.

      And we might just as remember, too, what that the “something like doping” consisted of: taking a fairly small amount of blood, treating it with UV light and giving it back to the athlete. Hocus pocus, of course, but if you’d lived in Germany you’d know there is a “small but vibrant community” of medical practitioners who take such “alternative medicine” quite seriously – and no shortage of patients or customers who believe that the treatments (many of which are covered by national or private health insurance schemes) are truly effective.

      A certain amount of cynicism is of course healthier than absolute credulity, but what I don’t like is knowingly mispresenting or not presenting fully facts for a purpose.

  27. How about that:At the beginning of a stagerace with a TT riders have to apply if they want to ride the TT. Those that don’t want to ride the ITT get the time of the last finisher or a time calculated by n km/h and those that ride get the real time.

    This way you wouldn’t force riders to ride a few kms more, that don’t change much in the overall raceload and you’d have a real race against each other of those that want to win the race overall or the stage. I know an ITT is great for the people roadside, but is it really this good to see riders taking it easy and just hoping for it to be over soon?

    Racing has to get back some meaning. Brice Feillu said it yesterday: You must believe, that you really can win something – that is, what is motivating us. I don’t see much of those chances around. So why force riders to ride, when they don’t care in the slightest about it and they can do nothing in those ITTs? On a normal raceday it makes some sense – you’ll never know what will happen. But in an ITT there are usually no surprises.

    • It’s not exciting, but everyone has to do the same distance or they haven’t completed the Tour.
      Simple solution: just watch the last hour.
      I’d say a variety of Movistar riders have no good reason (the team competition is not a good reason) to ride as hard as they have – they’re never going to win today. (Same goes for Nibali.)
      Have they given up on Quintana or are Movistar unwilling to ever rest riders? They’re the only ones who care about that team competition – TVG seems to be doing nothing for BMC and Sky seem to be resting everyone.

      • Honestly, what’s it to you if they care? Quintana’s not going to win, and may well not podium. If Movistar want to salvage something from the Tour by going for the team competition, fair play to them. It’s not going to win them respect but they all get to climb on the podium in Paris, that probably means something to the riders. That’s a good reason to ride.

    • I agree with the first sentence of your last paragraph, though.
      There is the idea that the GC contests are closer than previously because the riders are closer together in quality.
      I think it’s because nowadays people attack a lot less. They mostly all follow each other and then maybe sprint at the end. This and the TTs produce the time differences.
      Certainly the case in this Tour, thus far.

    • So defeatist – if any riders don’t feel like riding the ITT, there’s a desk job waiting for them somewhere! Thousands of guys or girls would take their place in a heartbeat.

      Everybody has a reason to ride the ITT.

      1. For riders who are close to Froome, today’s another chance to beat him down.

      2. For riders who aren’t in with a shot to win, but not on a GC team, today’s the day to lay down a PB.

      3. For riders on a GC team, today’s the day to rest because you’re needed tomorrow.

      4. For those guys who are sore or injured, I feel bad you are hurting, but you’re lucky to be at the Tour, so please grow up and ride your tail off – your professional cycling career won’t last long so enjoy it while it lasts! It’s very likely your next job won’t be 1/10th as exciting!

  28. It would be nice when riding a flat/uphill TT that the UCI weight limit on a “normal” bike could be somewhat reduced. The industry then would have some motivation to develop light weight stuff etc. and we could see some fancy bikes. Seeing riders like Burito swap bikes seems so stupid.

  29. I can see that there’s a certain almost ‘academic’ interest in how the riders went today – Bardet, Porte and Aru doing well, and Froome, obviously – but I’m perplexed as to why people really care.
    Obviously, it matters to the riders if they come 3rd instead of 5th, but why would a neutral fan care? Winner of the 1993 Tour – yup, I know that. Who came 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th? No idea and don’t care. I doubt that many here could name those off the top of their head.
    Ironic to see Froome do a ‘Wiggins single punch’ as he crossed the TT line in yellow.

    • I’m not sure a single-fisted punch is unique to or patented by Wiggins. Its a common expression of joy at a victory. And Froome hit the ball out the park today every bit as much as Wiggins did back in 2012.

    • 2nd – Rominger, 3rd – Jaskula, 4th – Mejia, 5th – Riis. Off the top of my head but I was a TDF geek in the early 90s so not a representative sample. I could probably do the podium for every Tour since 1988 though so would argue a podium place has sporting value.

      • Wow.
        I could name every winner going back to the 70s, but barely any 2nds once you go back a decade, and probably none of the others.

      • I lied, just tried to name all the podiums and failed. Surprisingly high number of riders who get one or two podiums which may explain why it does matter so much to those riders e.g. Parra, Escartin, Peraud etc

      • But aiming for a placing other than winner gets no respect. Ocana always despised Zoetemelk for not challenging Merckx’ supremacy and instead scientifically maximizing his results by wheelsucking. Ocana made sure he lost the 1976 Tour to Van Impe, and didn’t like his fortuitous, not offensive, team-based, 1980 victory.

    • It’s possible to be neutral, a fan, and find what happens in the minor placings entertaining. Just because you don’t understand it doesn’t mean you need to sneer.

Comments are closed.