Ronde van Vlaanderen Preview

The greatest one day race in the world takes place on Sunday. Giant crowds, fierce climbs and more await. This year’s edition promises an open edition with no particular rivalries there’s a long list of contenders and pretenders.

Ronde profile

The Route: similar to last year the route heads south across Flanders to Kortrijk. The Tiegemberg is the first of the hellingen, the climbs, from here the route resembles a bowl of spaghetti as it loops back and forth across the area in order to pack in as many climbs as possible. This matters twice over, the obvious point is the concentration of climbs but the secondary factor is the twisting route where being well-place for the right corner matters.

Hellingen Flanders

The Cobbles and the Climbs: it’s all about positioning and everyone wants to be at the front because if a rider ahead has a mechanical, crash or merely slows it takes a lot of effort to overtake as accelerating on cobbles or uphill uses so much more energy. Watch for the density of riders at key points in race, the racing is fierce just to reach the start of these strategic sections with riders fighting for place, almost a combat sport.

The Koppenberg (45km to go): “discovered” in 1976 when a local informed race organisers about a narrow cobbled climb with a 22% gradient. It was used every year until Jesper Skibby crashed in the 1987 race and the race car had to drive over his bike with the Dane’s feet still into the pedals. It’s made a recent comeback and comes late in the race. It was decisive last year, the race’s configuration changed totally on this one climb last year with the early breakaway going in and over the top they’d been chewed up and a lead group of top contenders went clear.

Oude Kwaremont (153km, 53km and 17km to go): the odd berg out as it’s not short, it’s not steep and it’s not all cobbled. Instead it’s 2.2km long and a meagre 4.2% average; it touches 11% midway. If 2.2km doesn’t sound like much, it’s an effort of more than five minutes of which four are spend on the pavé.

Paterberg (52km to go, 14km to go): the Kwaremont is chased by the Paterberg, it’s only 400m long but is short, steep and very cobbled. Built by a farmer for the fun of it’s the final climb of the race it has broken many a rider with 250km in their legs.

The Dead Road: three infamous climbs detailed above but the Kwaremont-Paterberg combo is preceded by a long, wide section of rolling road that dampens any moves and encourages riders to huddle ahead of the upcoming difficulties.

The Finish: the last section from Kerkhove to the Minderbroedersstraat in Oudenaarde is eight kilometres long and a wide straight line all the way. It is the most unremarkable of roads, there are no sharp corners, roundabouts or hills. The featureless nature matters, riders can spot anyone with a narrow lead ahead and long enough to allow groups to reform. The final kilometre is flat and straight with the tiniest of rises to the finish line.

Alexander Kristoff

The Contenders: without Fabian Cancellara and Tom Boonen this is an open race with no stand-out pick, instead there’s a circle of prime contenders.

Alexander Kristoff is the default pick because of his tough aspect. It’s been a great start to the season and all that’s missing is a win in a Monument. He’s been on fire for months, winning from Qatar to Coxyde. De Panne is a rare predictor of success in De Ronde and three stage wins in three days could mean Kristoff is drained for the big day but he’s a Stakhanovite. He’s much more than a sprinter although its his finishing strength that makes him the top pick because if he can get to the finish with others he’s got a great chance of beating them in the sprint. He’s got a strong team to help and Luca Paolini will probably play a supporting role despite his success last weekend.

Geraint Thomas

What a difference a year makes for Geraint Thomas. Then mocked for crashing, now a topfavoriet and the form pick. He was climbing with the best in Paris-Nice and went solo on the flat to win the E3 Harelbeke. Now here’s a hilly course to give him plenty of options. His winning move to Harelbeke went on the Oude Kwaremont and he could well use the longest climb in the race again as a launch pad and try to go solo to the finish. He’s no slouch in the sprint either. He’s surely the best bet for Team Sky, Ian Stannard’s bulk is better suited to next weekend’s Paris-Roubaix but it’s a matter of degree and he’s still a strong card to play.

Bradley Wiggins is in great shape, winning the final stage of De Panne by a big margin although he didn’t have any prominent TT specialists to contend with. Still it’s encouragement after a illness and antibiotics. A 264km race is something else but he should be ready and if he’s bulked up he’s still stick thin and could well on the climbs, however his inexperience in this race will count against him, he’s only finished three times during his long career but this isn’t his regular terrain. We’ll know more about his Roubaix dreams by Sunday evening.

Who’s the leader at Etixx-Quickstep? Ideally the team will want to keep everyone guessing all day but surely Zdeněk Štybar and Niki Terpstra are the best bets with Stijn Vandenbergh playing luxury lieutenant. But how do they win? Presumably in numbers with ideally Terpstra and Štybar in a small group on the Paterberg, the Czech attacks and if he’s hauled back then Terpstra responds on the flat run to the line. Too obvious perhaps and Terpstra might have to try a longer range move. Guillaume Van Keirsbulck brings more attacking power and Matteo Trentin is a stealth pick to win a sprint, he’s got that knack of quality wins.

Anything Kristoff can do, John Degenkolb can do too. He headbanging sprint on the Via Roma proves he can go the distance with the best and the cobbles and climbs are nothing to fear. He was 15th last year, 9th in 2013 and has finished four times, he’s starting to learn the trade. However he’s a threatening rider and the sight of him in the final 25km will encourage others to hit the climbs as hard as possible and he risks being isolated.

Sep Vanmarcke

Sep Vanmarcke could be forgiven for spending the winter dreaming of ways to beat Fabian Cancellara after the Swiss beat him in Roubaix in 2013 and here in 2014. Now the Swiss is gone but Vanmarcke’s path to victory isn’t so clear. He’s been looking great this spring but almost too good, too visible too soon some times in a races and it’s not just the bright yellow Lotto-Jumbo jersey, he’s been pushing the pace prematurely and warning his rivals. He’s capable of rising to the occaision but how will he win the race? A solo flyer isn’t his thing and a sprint from a short group could mean clashing with Kristoff and others.

Everyone’s slowly forgetting about Peter Sagan as if his career trajectory has started to resemble the flightpath of Icarus. He’s still one of the best and has come close to winning this race before so with added experience he’s a top contender. Team management chaos is settling back down too. It’s said his bulk is such that so much weight is over the back wheel that he can’t climb the bergs so well, he risks lifting the front wheel with the torque so has to get out of the saddle to put weight over the front wheel but that’s risky on the steep parts. Cancellara exploited this in 2013 to ditch him on the Paterberg.

Greg Van Avermaet

The wheels have come off Greg Van Avermaet’s spring campaign. A win in Tirreno-Adriatico hinted at triumph to come but since then the top-10 specialist’s finished 19th in Sanremo, 88th in Harelbeke and 36th in Wevelgem. However don’t write him off because each of these races has had special circumstances, he was active on the Poggio with the best in the E3 and Gent-Wevelgem was an exceptional race and in finishing it he still logged the distance his legs need. Daniel Oss is proving an excellent Lieutenant; I think he’s got more cards to play in Paris-Roubaix.

That’s it for the top names, now for the second tier of contenders. Jurgen Roelandts launched a big raid in Gent-Wevelgem but if he was confident of the win he probably would have sat tight for longer while Jens Debusschere is more than a big sprinter. He’s stood on the podium in this race before but a win is a different matter. Stijn Devolder has won the race twice and seems to be back in form all of a sudden with a strong ride in De Panne. Infamous for lurking at the back of the race for hours even when it’s too risky he can suddenly switch on the power when it matters. Filippo Pozzato has come close in this race and is having a decent spring campaign although far from the force he used to be. Finally IAM Cycling’s tandem of Sylvain Chavanel and Heinrich Haussler could feature, Chavanel is in danger of having his career defined by the loss of the race in 2011 to Nick Nuyens.

Geraint Thomas, Alexander Kristoff
Zdeněk Štybar, Sep Vanmarcke
John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan, Greg Van Avermaet
Niki Terpstra, Stijn Vandenbergh, Ian Stannard, Luca Paolini
Devolder, Roelandts, Leukemans, Pozzato, Ciolek, Lobato, Oss, Trentin, Gatto

Weather: a springlike 12°C with sunshine and clouds. Forecasts for the wind keep changing, the latest say a 20km/h breeze from the north-east. This means a headwind on the run to the finish but shouldn’t be enough to ravage the race earlier on.

TV: It’s on Sporza, Eurosport and other channels around the world. As ever cyclingfans.com and steephill.tv have schedules and streams and cyclinghub is a new name that also supplies a live stream.

The race starts at 10.15 with a neutralised roll-out until 10.30 and then the race will be shown live, at least locally. There has been talk of non-stop live coverage but this seems to be revised with coverage resuming at 2.40pm Euro time until the finish which at around 4.45pm.

Women’s Race: see Velofocus for a preview

82 thoughts on “Ronde van Vlaanderen Preview”

  1. I can’t see anyone past Kristoff really. The man can sprint, handle the hellingen and can attack too. Thomas is whom I’d like to win, but really needs a gap.

    • Thanks for the great preview, dear Inrng! Reading your first sentence made me smile out of perfect consent.
      Having seen Kristoff in recent weeks it’s tempting to agree with your assumption, Nation, but the RVV is the greatest race of all also because it’s so hard to predict who will win although we nearly never saw someone win who did not deserve it. It’s the course which is equally demanding in terms of physical and technical ability which prevents some lucky nobody from winning. But even the strongest bike riders with exceptional bike handling can struggle if they lose their attention for a few seconds. Lightning can strike nearly everywhere on this course once the bergs have begun and typically you won’t come back from a mishap on this course. It often is so narrow, so hectic. If you ride these farm roads on a calm day on your own you cannot imagine that they use them for a World Tour bike race. I think that is what makes this race stand out. You need to be a really complete rider, you need to be very attentive all the time and you need a healthy portion of luck.
      I do expect Sky and EQS early trying to make the race as hard as possible to prevent Kristoff and Degenkolb from featuring in the finale since neither team has a rider capable of sprinting against those guys but both teams have riders who should be able to ride away from Kristoff and Dege on the bergs in the finale if they really make them suffer beforehand. I think it will be harder to drop Dege than Kristoff though.
      Anyway, we will witness a great race, that’s for sure and although I would have liked very much to see Spartakus and Tommekke fighting the younger lads once again I’m now looking forward to a race which is more open and will probably be run more offensive from more teams. We can be really thankful that finally Team Sky has learned how to ride the classics.

  2. CANNOT wait for his race.

    With no absolute stand outs (I don’t think Kristoff can win), it should be an excellent race.

    Having an Easter Monday public holiday the next day makes it even better!

  4. Would love to see Thomas win this and cement his growing Hard Man reputation. Unfortunately away for next 12 days means I will miss this and PR, somewhat gutted.

    • Not for Cancellara who’s seated acceleration on the Paterberg cracked Sagan, he and his team seem to be the first to identify and exploit this. Apparently it’s not so much the bulk itself but the distribution of it with more on the back wheel.

      • Indeed. Not sure about pros and cons, but if you look at Sagan you’ll notice that – TTs aside – he’s usually got a more “sitting” position, with his back a little more upright, flexing less his elbows and lower back (as opposed to stretching out towards the handlebars, with a more horizontal setting of the back and more weight on the front wheel). Don’t know it it’s about his MTB experience or his physical complexion, but it’s quite evident, especially in “normal”, “relaxed” riding… An example, here:
        http://www.ride.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/CORVOS_sagan1.jpg
        This doesn’t mean he can’t ride differently, he tried it precisely on the Paterberg, but probably it’s less natural for him and potentially it means being a little less efficient.

        • Then he should either move his saddle or put the biggest tire that will fit on the back wheel. As a mountain bike you would expect he would have mastered the skill of balancing the front wheel lift vs raar tire grip. In my experience it is usually the roadies who struggle with that more.

  8. Thomas is in great shape for sure, I can see him and Vanmarcke pulling away from the rest on the Kwaremont and working together like Sep and Cancellara last year. Terpstra could do a big ride as could Van Avermaet. Watch out for Florian Senechal, the young Cofidis rider won the junior Paris-Roubaix a few years back, could be involved too.. Daniel Oss and Roelandts could go early to try to get a head start like Roelandts two years ago when he made the podium.. it’s going to be great..

    http://www.cyclingbetting.co.uk/tour-of-flanders-2015

  9. Couldn’t be more excited. Thank you for a great preview. As much a sentimental as statistically reasonable pick but Sep Vanmarcke is due. He has demonstrated such incredible power for over a month, granted usually hammering solo back up to the break sure, BUT fortune and good tactics will prevail this man this weekend.

  11. “It’s said his bulk is such that so much weight is over the back wheel that he can’t climb the bergs so well, he risks lifting the front wheel with the torque so has to get out of the saddle to put weight over the front wheel but that’s risky on the steep parts”

    That does not make much sense to me. If anything heavier riders have relatively more mass in the upper body so less of an issue of the front wheel lifting.

    “This means a tailwind on the run to the finish, a slight encouragement for a sprint finish.”

    I’ll assume this is a typo, otherwise it would be just plain wrong. ANY tailwind would reduce the benefit of riding in the slipstream in a group and hence help an attack to stick rather encourage a sprint.

    • No typo, it’s a nuance and predicated on lone rider or two preceding a small chase group. A headwind means anyone chasing from the group behind feels the strain and won’t want to work for the others while those in front are committed already and have to work 100% anyway. Take last year’s Paris-Roubaix, Terpstra faced a headwind but behind the mild headwind was sapping the others. It’s all a very different scenario than a bunch sprint in a grand tour that’s chasing a group of course, the remaining energy in the bunch is so great that they can commit plenty to the chase.

  13. I don’t see Kristoff a contender. The only other races similar to Ronde are E3 an Dwaars and he was nowhere to be seen. So much so that in G-W he gave the nod to Paolini. De Panne is nothing like Ronde and it cannot be a benchmark. Geraint and Stybar are the safe bet.

    • These are races wherein attacks comes from everywhere and the front group worked well. But you do not expect that to be the case come Sunday. A lot of cautious strategy to be in place.

    • Nowhere to be seen? He was 4th in E3, and would probably have won if GVA didn’t crash (as BMC were about to catch the leading trio)…

    • I just re-watched last year’s race. Kristoff was at the front on the Kwaremont. He out-climbed Thomas, Sagan etc but just couldn’t go with the acceleration from Cancellara and Vanmarcke. He then tried – and very nearly – bridged alone to the front 4 in the finale. He got caught by Terpstra in that chase but subsequently dropped him on the run into the finish. If he brings that, he’ll be hard to beat.

      That race also showed the level of Vanmarcke at full gas on the final climbs where only he could follow Cancellara – not sure Thomas is there yet. I dearly hope I’m wrong though as I’d love to see the Welshman jag a win – to be competitive in climbing-friendly stage races and cobbled classics shows a versatility we don’t often see these days.

      PS. Good luck to Armitstead in the women’s RR. It was a travesty last year to have the commentators call in the winner of the women’s race and not be allowed to show the closing stages of the race (different broadcaster?) when not much was happening in the men’s race. I hope they’ve fixed that (but I doubt it to be honest).

      • “To be competitive in climbing-friendly stage races and cobbled classics shows a versatility we don’t often see these days.” And it is a wonderful thing. But there is a real argument about whether Geraint is the most impressive example of such a rider on his own team. I don’t expect much controversy between them, but I am most keen to see Brad’s result at Roubaix.

  14. I want Sagan to win, i fear that if he doesn’t Oleg will get the Mafia goons on him. Seriously though i actually do want Sagan to win but my money is on Degenkolb

  15. If only Degenkolb has a serviceable teammate. GVA is a wildcard here, if he attacks we will be a great race if he opted for a bunch sprint then Kristoff vs Degenkolb.

    Sagan must not overcomplicate things. Just stay in Kristoff wheels.

    Sky and Etixx will screw up their chances as there will be no Cancellera to wreck havoc.

    As for Sep Vanmarck, he will animate the race just as the other Lotto Belisol guys but it will be too early. Like I said there will be no Cance to keep the front group going.

  16. Devolder is the only previous winner in the field with terpstra and van summeren the only winners of or there. Looks like a changing of the guard but a pity Spartacus and tommeke are not there to go down fighting. An open race and should be good.
    Wiggins to get shelled out the back on the oude kwaremont first time around.
    Great preview inrng, keep up the good work.

  17. Would really like to see G win. But looking forward to watching a really open race. Just hope we find a bar that has it on, in Spain on Sunday

    • I REALLY hope to be wrong, but it looks like they didn’t buy broadcasting rights. Not even EITB (Basque television) nor TV3/Esport3 (Catalan television). The “Flandres Classics” bundle has started being sold with a policy of raising prices, I think, and Spain isn’t interested without any top contender in the mix. Utterly sad. I personally know various Spanish amateur cyclists who consider Flandres “simply the best” and are going to race the amateur version…! Well, I guess that’s also the best way to subsequently see it live, since it’s not on Spanish TV 😉
      Hope you got a mobile device, possibly a laptop, and are able to take advantage of one of the quite common good & free WI-FI nets (depending on where you’ll be, quite obviously).

      • I still keep a little hope alive ’cause they broadcast G-W last week, but even if they’re in the same “package” of races I’m afraid it can be split: in Italy I think RAI has got the Flanders but they did not show the G-W.

        • In Italy: RAI3 live broadcast starts 14:30 Eurosport1 at 12:30. We’ll be one of those people at Easter pranzo with one eye on the lamb and the other on RAI3, much to our Italian “Mamma’s” consternation 🙂 Buona Domenica tutti!

          • I’m trying to gather some more info, but apparently RTVE *bought* the rights and IS NOT broadcasting RVV (broadcasting schedule on their website as at today). Tennis on the sport channel, a lame quiz show on the 2nd channel and… “Ben-Hur” on the main national channel. Ils sont fou, ces hiberiques!
            Still hoping that’s a joke and “Ben-Hur” is a code word for the Flanders, you know, the chariot race and so 😛

  19. Left field idea, Sagan could be trying the “rope -a-dope” tactic Alberto used ahead of last year’s Vuelta. He may yet surprise all on Sunday

  20. Definitely can’t rule Sagan out, especially on this bloody awful circuit they now have. If the others don’t work hard he can get over the Kwaremont/Paterberg combo with a group and then take the sprint.

    I’d like to see Thomas, Vanmarcke or Sagan get it, but I have a feeling it’ll be a Quickstepper…

      • I wish they’d finish the race in town, Oudenaarde has a good market square although presumably they can’t pack it with VIP stands and rake in the cash. But otherwise the flat approach to town is interesting sometimes too, it makes for a tactical finish.

  21. I’m very curious to see what will happen. Very open race. We the presence of three wel climbing sprinters mean the likes of Stybar, Thomas and Vanmarcke go for an early attack or will they wait for the last Paterberg to go full out and drop the slightly lesser climbers? I think team support will be critical, for the sprinters to chase down attacks and for the climbers /rouleurs to wear down the sprinters. In this sense eqs has the best cards as long as they manage to get their priorities straight.

  22. Everything I have seen points towards the wind blowing from north-east to south-west in Oudenaarde. Meaning a headwind on the run-in.

  23. Love this time of year, even though down here we’re leaving summer for winter. Go GvA! Thanks Mr Inrng for the great preview yet again.

  25. About the Sagan weight distribution, if everyone remembers he has had custom geometry on his bikes for a number of years. The Cannonade he was riding had a ridiculousely long top tube, somewhere in the neighbourhood of 59cm if I remember correctly, on a 56 frame. That plus his torque = difficult seated accelerations on steep climbs.

    As for who i’d like to see win, VanMarcke needs to show the eye of the tiger this year, more so than Sagan I think. Thomas is the form pick, and I think Stybar is in better shape than Terpstra and better suited to the Ronde.

    Really wish Cofidis had sent Rollin to the Ronde instead of Paris-Camembert, he is a big engine who is made for these races. Not saying he would have been a player late, but an early break with him in it = chasing teams need to work REAAAL hard.

    • Would you please elaborate why a longer top tube should make it more difficult to accelerate when seated on a steep climb. I really would like to understand your reasoning.

      With regards to this topic – that Sagan has too much weight on his rear wheel – I think it’s plain nonsense. Cancellara was simply fresher when he attacked him on the Paterberg and it was not the first time that he won the RVV with a high cadence attack on the final climb. Didn’t he do the same thing to Boonen on the Kappelmur when still riding for CSC?

      It is, by the way, at least according to my experience easier to create a short power burst by using a smaller gear and giving it a good spin rather than shifting to a larger one and doing it with maximum force. Especially when you’re muscles are already tired. And your opponents also notice your attack a little bit later that way because you stay seated.

      Sagan is such a great bike handler, even better than the exceptional Spartakus, I think. If he has the power it’s as easy as pie for him to bring that power down to the road no matter if you force him to stay in the saddle or allow him to get out of it.

      I have ridden the Paterberg when the cobbles were dry and when they were wet. As long as they are dry you can hammer it up out of the saddle without any considerable loss of power due to wheel spin. It’s only when it’s wet that you have to stay seated to avoid too much wheel spin.

      • Agree that bike position is not standing in Sagan’s way– it was Fabian’s legs that were the problem. IMO Sagan has less back/hip flexibility than the typical WT rider, causing him to it more upright. As noted this should tend to keep his weight back, which should be good for traction on slick, steep cobbles– although the problem cited for Sagan was front wheel lift, which I just do not believe could be a problem for him. If he is pulling too hard on the bars is it because his legs are not getting the job done. Having an extra low/long saddle-bar reach does NOT seem appropriate for a guy with a “stiff” back, but Sagan would not be the first pro to be spotted with a non-optimal cockpit setup. Mr Ring did a good piece about bike position awhile back:

        http://inrng.com/2013/01/cycling-position-change/

        He mentions that both Cancellara and Sagan have been known to sprint with their hands on the hoods. I think that is because most riders these days set up the bike so that the hoods are the main racing position, whereas back in the day the hoods were for relaxing or racing with bent elbows. The result is that the drop position these days tends to be either closer to the hood position (compact bars) or is not used very much because the reach is too extreme. This stuff was much easier to glean from photos when top tubes were parallel to the ground (illustrated by F. Moser in the linked post).

        If Cancellara is a great bike handler I guess I’d have to ask how much good it has done him, considering he’ll miss out on 2 of the last 4 Rondes after encounters with bidons, plus the Olympic debacle. His absence is especially unfortunate for this race, but amounts to a great opportunity. I’d like to see the final trio from Harelbeke have at it again.

  26. Thanks Inrng,
    Icarus needs this race to keep the wolf of Russia off his back.
    I expect a dramatic play by him youthful exuberance. Although, as said earlier he should stay on Kristoff’s wheel till the at least the last 5K.

  27. Peter can win this; and it has nothing to do with management change. When he won at Tirreno, he already knew that Bjarne is gone. That isn’t the factor, he has some set back last couple of months, i we digging hard to understand what could cause this. And, we have no chaos in the team, all under control 🙂

  28. I don’t see kristov doing it. I think it’ll be too tough for him to be in the final shake up. I’d be interested in analysis of the number of riders in the first group hitting the final km, similar to what this blog has done for San remo. Anyone know if there’s one available anywhere?

  29. Hi Oleg! Lovely to have you posting here. Could you be more specific, what setbacks has Sagan had since Tirreno? Although I won’t be supporting your rider tomorrow, it would be good to have him competitive…

  30. so I rode the sportive yesterday in the rain and wind, and the cobbled bergs were covered in a fine layer of mud, making traction almost impossible after the gradients hit 20%. I don’t think the koppenberg will have had time to dry out yet, so look out or riders ditching!

  32. A nice and entertaining finale although an obvious five-star favorite won.
    So neither Sky nor EQS tried to make the race hard from a long way out and it came down to what could be expected if they only start racing in the finale hour. Do we agree that both teams displayed some strange tactics? Sky amassing at the front and riding tempo as if riding for Chris Froome on a stage with one final HC climb where the leader does not need any more mates because he either has the legs or not. Now that was really strange to look at and not the first time they got their tactics all wrong while everyone was watching.
    And EQS, especially Terpstra, what was he thinking when his attack had pulled out Kristoff? It looks like there are some fights for the leader position going on at EQS and a clever and convincing directeur sportif is missing who is and whose orders are really respected amongst his riders. If only wins count for a team, and we can suppose that this is the way it is at EQS, especially at the RVV, then Terpstra continuing with Kristoff who was obviously at ease (while Terpstra was not), was the worst he could do.
    Chapeau to the viking though! He rode a faultless race which panned out beautifully in front of him.

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