The Spin: Milan-Sanremo preview

Friday, 16 March 2012

Milan-Sanremo is on Saturday. The longest day of racing on the calendar at 298km, it is one of the five monuments that are the most prestigious of one day races in the sport. Here is a preview of the 2012 edition.

The Route | The Contenders | The Weather | TV Viewing | Startlist


The Route

The race starts in central Milan and first 115km are unremarkable in terms of tactics and terrain. We must wait until about 185km until the pace really hots up. Just think about that, riding for 185km before the terrain livens up. Of course if the wind is blowing, if it cold or wet then this early part of the race can be misery.

Normally from the start the favourites sit tight and save energy for later; the world’s longest warm-up. The race passes empty rice fields ready to fuel Italy with risotto for another year. But don’t get the impression of a procession: this is still a full on race, there are crashes and breakaways and perversely the favourites must work hard at saving energy. The standard format is that a large breakaway goes early on after some frantic racing from the start. The composition of the move is crucial: does it contain a good mix of teams, are there any superstars?

Milan San Remo tunnel

Things change on the Turchino Pass (“tur-keen-o”). A long climb that starts in Ovada, the road snakes up into an empty land of sleepy woodland and quiet villages with derelict factories that once relied on waterwheels for power. The climb is easy, over 25km it rises 350 metres, although with a few ups and downs along the way to sometimes warrant the inner ring. The pace normally picks up here as teams start to soften up the race. The top is marked by a tunnel, a symbolic moment as the race crosses from one phase to another and into the bright light of the Italian riviera. On a good day you can scent the characteristic pine and other vegetation of the Mediterranean coast. The Turchino is asymmetric, a long climb up but at the top, marked by a narrow tunnel, the descent to the coast is rapid with a series of hairpin bends and the sea shimmering below.

The race then hugs the coast almost all the way to the finish, darting inland to tackle a few climbs along the way. Over the years these climbs have been added to break up the race in order to hamper the sprinters. The organisers have added more and more but each time the sprinters learn to cope. First up is Le Manie, the newest addition which begins with a passage through an archway. Its name translates as “The Manias”.

Added in 2008 it comes after 204km and is 4.7km long and averages 6.7% making it hard, especially given the 11% ramp in the middle. But I think you’d need an expert surveyor to find the 11% section, it seems more like a max of 8-9% in reality. The climb begins on the flat since positioning prior to the start matters. Once on the slopes if it was done at a steady pace this is a breeze. But full gas and some riders will be ejected. Above all it softens up riders for later. The descent is technical and risky, many riders want to cross the climb near the front just to avoid trouble on the way down.

More coastal riding and the race heads over two small capes, Capo Mele and Capo Cervo to mark the 250 kilometres, the kind of distance sufficient for the Worlds or Olympics. But it’s onwards and over the Capo Berta, a longer climb but on the main road and not too hard at 5%.

By now the pace is furious and riders need to be in position ahead of the Cipressa climb. But since everyone wants to be at the front the speed is high and the helicopter shots on TV makes for nervous viewing as riders jostle for position. This is cycling as a contact sport.

Think of it as the bigger sister of the Poggio. It is higher and the roads are wider. It climbs to the village of Cipressa, meaning cypress tree but Oliva would be a better name since the road climbs up past many olive groves, so many that they leave oil spots on the road and on humid days the air has a rancid smell. The stats say it is 5.6km long and averages 4.1% but it has steeper sections in places. But it is fast and a sprinter sheltered and paced by team mates should survive. The descent is fast and tricky. It starts with some long fast straights but later barrels into tight corners as it approaches the coast and the village of Aregai.

Then it’s on to the Poggio. The road in between is anodyne on a normal day but the riders will be scrapping for every bit of space and the right wheel. The climb got a whole preview of its own on here yesterday and to summarise it is a very fast climb interrupted by sharp hairpin bends making it a series of sprints. Harder at first, the road is narrow and the bends stretch riders into a long line which is why you need to be near the front before starting the climb. The second half of the climb rises up but less so, the chance for a very strong rider to pull away but also for collaboration amongst riders to bring back any attacks. The descent is not too technical but with 6km to go the intensity of the race means every corner is taken at the limit. Over the years crashes have been rare, perhaps because riders come over the Poggio in a line rather than a bunch.

Finally the race speeds into Sanremo, famous for its music festival and flowers. The roads are wide. A couple of bends await and the finish is by the seaside and totally flat.

Summary: if the above is too long (like the race) then it’s 300km where there are countless moments for a rider in prime condition to lose the race by careless positioning or simple misfortune. The finale of the race is so intense. Fatigue for the riders and excitement for the viewers make this a compelling finish.

Finally don’t ignore the poetic nature of the route. We start in Milan, one of Italy’s biggest cities and infamous for its cold winters and foggy mornings… only to finish in Sanremo with its sunshine, the sea, colourful flowers and more. It takes seven days to go from Paris to Nice to find the sun, this takes seven hours.


The Contenders
Because the course is not so selective, picking a winner is hard. The hills are just enough to eject some sprinters but not selective enough to ensure every sprinter disappears. Here the weather plays a part, foul conditions lend themselves to a greater selection but Saturday’s forecast looks mild.

Mark Cavendish (Sky) is the rider you never bet against. Meticulous, ambitious and almost invincible in the sprint, he is the obvious pick.  The winner in 2009, he has coped with the hills before but has also met with misfortune, he punctured last year. If anything his greatest problem is that many expect him to win and rival teams will develop tactics to thwart him, for example attacking in order to avoid a bunch sprint.

“Cav” can’t win every sprint and after 298km anything is possible. Peter Sagan is another favourite rider because he can both sprint and attack, as we have seen in Tirreno-Adriatico and also because Vincenzo Nibali is in great shape and able to attack on the Cipressa or Poggio and push Sky to the limit; Sagan’s weakness seems to be his youth, he has struggled with long distancess. But if he’s in the mix, Sky can stick Edwald Boasson Hagen on him; plus in his own right the Norwegian is Sky’s sprint Plan B.

Tom Boonen has never won this race but has twice finished on the podium. He’s been enjoying a good start with five wins but sometimes wins via brute force rather than tactical finesse and he might find himself outfoxed in the finishing straight.

Oscar Freire lurks as usual, ready to pounce upon any weakness. There’s not much more to say about the Spaniard except that he’s won already this year and riders forget him at their peril. Just ask Erik Zabel who lifted his arms in celebration back in 2004 only to find Freire threw his bike to the line and won.

If Sky and Liquigas have two top riders, I’d venture Fabien Cancellara and Daniele Bennati from Radioshack-Nissan as another prime pairing. Cancellara has won the race before and is in excellent form after his bold win on the Strade Bianche race. Bennati is often seen as a sprinter but managed a long breakaway in the Strade Bianche and recently placed second to Cancellara in the Tirreno-Adriatico time trial, a sign of more than sprinting power.

Last year’s winner Matt Goss hasn’t demonstrated the form he enjoyed in 2011 but you never know, especially since he can cope well with the climbs along the way and he knows Mark Cavendish very well. One of the most in-form riders this year is André Greipel who comes with a whole team at his service and several wins. Don’t forget Heinrich Haussler has this race burned into his mind after 2009 when Cavendish overhauled him in extremis.

Can we exclude Philippe Gilbert? He’s been off form this year and has done nothing to suggest he’s in shape to win… so unless he’s doing the biggest bluff the sport has ever seen, we’ll see him in April. I think his team mate Alessandro Ballan is a better bet but he’s not got a killer sprint in his armoury.

So far the big names have been cited. The odd thing is that the race is very open yet only the stars of the sport seem to win, only occasionally does the race throw up a surprise winner.


Weather forecast: 9°C (48°F)on the start line in Milan with light cloud cover and almost no wind. By the time the race drops off the Turchino it will have warmed up to 12°C (54°F) and it will be 14°C (57°F) at the finish line. Crucially there will be a tailwind along the coast, a moderate 20km/h. As the race zigzags up over the climbs this will mean a crosswind and a headwind at times and at the slightly higher altitude the windspeed could be higher but for now the forecast suggests a mild and calm day and little more.


TV viewings: the broadcast starts at 2.40pm Euro time and the race is expected to finish about 5.00pm, well over two hours of live coverage can be expected.

The race will be shown worldwide for free on the internet via the La Gazzetta Dello Sport website, the Italian sports daily that belongs to RCS, organisers of the race. The commentary is in Italian and of an excellent standard.

Pancani Cassani

Italian TV's Francesco Pancani and Davide Cassani

However there are English language options. Eurosport will be covering the race with David Harmon and former race winner Sean Kelly joining him. A cable and satellite TV channel in Europe, Eurosport has an online platform called Eurosport Player where you can subscribe to receive good quality video and audio.

Alternatively the likes of cyclingfans.com and steephill.tv are the go-to websites for pirate video streams.


Startlist
This is available in a PDF document from the race organisers. There are 25 teams of 8 riders, a total of 200 riders.

Pin It

{ 31 comments }

Ankush March 16, 2012 at 8:37 am

Thanks for the great preview, Cav to win.

kregerm March 16, 2012 at 8:43 am

Excellent preview. I can only hope you are able to do these for all the classics.

Haussler for the surprise.

Kjetil March 16, 2012 at 8:58 am

Super preview. I didn’t know Le Manie started like that. No wonder there’s a race to it. IIRC both Cav and Hushovd were caught behind a crash on the run in to it last year.

mcboo March 16, 2012 at 9:13 am

“The race starts in central Milan and first 185km are unremarkable in terms of tactics and terrain. Just think about that, riding for 185km before the terrain livens up.”

Nicely put. The killer stat for all us Sunday sportive heroes.

Another great race preview, I’ve been riding for a while now but only the last year or so I have started getting a good handle on the nuts and bolts of pro-racing and it’s long and terrifying history, all down to INRNG.

TomC March 16, 2012 at 10:24 am

Bloody hell Inrng, what a superlative preview! Great work!

Guadzilla March 16, 2012 at 10:41 am

Here’s rooting for Tommeke!

Nick Squillari March 16, 2012 at 10:44 am

Any chance please of a hot link in the pictures to some larger version of? Especially the first one? It’s great!

The Inner Ring March 16, 2012 at 10:59 am

Any photos with the INRNG logo in the corner can be bought – I don’t make a cent but the photographer does, email me for more info – but I’m restricted to 600 pixel width with the deal I have so sadly I can’t make them bigger… even if the original 4000 pixel version is superb.

El Hasse March 16, 2012 at 11:01 am

Great rpeview. Thank you! Cancellara will snatch this one after a furocious descent, that gives him six seconds at the bottom. This lead will be extended to 14 at the finish line, we’re Cav will grab second in front of TomBoy Boonen. Oh, it will be a fine saturday in front of the tele.

Chris March 16, 2012 at 11:05 am

Good call on Bennati. He’s looking strong and his TT at Tirreno was remarkable. He could win out of a group of big names.

936ADL March 16, 2012 at 11:20 am

Cav, Cav, and more Cav!

Would be lovely to see a monument being won in the hoops.

Jon March 16, 2012 at 11:25 am

I read but don’t usually comment but this time have to say thanks for the detail here.

BA'S_Mohawk March 16, 2012 at 11:30 am

Thanks inrng for, yet again, inciteful and objective analysis on the anatomy of La classica di Primavera God, I love the classics.

Cancellara for the solo from about 40k’s out, btw.

Rob March 16, 2012 at 11:58 am

I’ve got fond memories of Goss’ win last year at I picked him up at a very nice 24-1 odds :-D My backings for the wknd…

Freire 13-1, never bet against him at MSR, no one is more anonymous till the right time

Boonen 16.5-1, best form out there, a bit of a heart over head choice

Greipel 22.5-1, ok form and the only guy out there that can beat Cav head to head, is he mean enough to hold his position going into the climbs though? Greg Henderson is going to have to do an amazing job, but I think he’s one of the most underrated additions of the year and is the best leadout man any of the top sprinters now have, but does he have the head of a Hincapie?

Rob March 16, 2012 at 12:02 pm

p.s. I love MSR because it must be the most excruciating classic to watch. It’s not like Flanders or Roubaix where you stand up and scream at the television as the hardmen lob their ammo. It’s not like Liege or Lombardy where the climbers prance away. It’s alwasy cat and mouse, it’s always nailbiting, you always have to watch the last 5 minutes (and not the first 7 hours). It’s never over till the fat lady sings, bring it on!

beev March 16, 2012 at 12:06 pm

“I think you’d need an expert surveyor to find the 11% section” – quality….

question – did cassani ever apologise to cancellara for his ridiculous motored bike theory?

David March 16, 2012 at 12:26 pm

Great to see the race organisers using on-line media to show the race!

Owen March 16, 2012 at 12:38 pm

I’m racing tomorrow afternoon and will enter twitter hibernation to avoid news of this and the England rugby. Wife’s out so it’s dinner, Barolo and TV. Cancellara, Haussler or Cav. In no order.

Xavier March 16, 2012 at 1:33 pm

Great preview for the firts monument. in Italy say: “La corsa piu facile de corre i la corsa piu dificille de vincire”.

Peloton Pundit March 16, 2012 at 2:55 pm

I wrote a betting preview of the race that breaks down the favourites in the betting and my thoughts on their chances. Have a read: http://pelotonpundit.wordpress.com/2012/03/16/2012-milan-san-remo-betting/

Crofty March 16, 2012 at 3:23 pm

With reference and replying to a point made in the article, the Inner Ring is surely always warranted.

Larry T. March 16, 2012 at 4:20 pm

Nice preview! Back in 2010 we drove the course starting just before Le Manie – it looked like a challenging descent from behind the wheel of the car! Foe me, a nice ride on Saturday morning followed by MSR on TV….doesn’t get much better than that…especially if you’re in Italy.

rode_ridder_ March 16, 2012 at 5:01 pm

just looked at the startlist & saw no Sep Vanmarke mentionned, shame because he has in the legs!! to win. Not in a sprint but in a surprise attaque

Peddling Profe March 16, 2012 at 5:41 pm

Thanks inrng!
“It takes seven days to go from Paris to Nice to find the sun, this takes seven hours”
looking forward to every second.

Anonymous March 16, 2012 at 7:17 pm

I agree – this is Cancellara’s to lose…however, because so much of this is a decent driven race, how good is Cancellara at decending?

dubtap March 16, 2012 at 7:55 pm

” how good is Cancellara at decending?”

are you for real?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxXqQqAc2pA

Larry T. March 16, 2012 at 8:18 pm

He’s a pretty DECENT at DESCENDING! Thanks dubtap for the link, that’s one video clip ya could use in a “Descending 300″ course. Student must have taken and passed 100 and 200 level courses and have instructor’s approval.

Rider Council March 16, 2012 at 10:19 pm

…and the best i.e. craziest descending is usually only captured by the helicopter camera.

This year’s winner of San Remo festival last month; Emma belts it out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEg-mBCECCc

autourdefrance March 16, 2012 at 10:27 pm

you learn something everyday, great stuff, very informative, not sure I’m ready for 298km quite yet
next year maybe?? is there a vets race?

GluteCramp March 16, 2012 at 11:55 pm

Anybody for a descent race between Cancellara and Hushovd? Hard to film, sure, but well worth the effort!

ave March 17, 2012 at 1:41 am

It took me quite long to read it all, it must have taken much longer to write it. Thanks for the effort, it’s the best preview I’ve ever read about M-S.

Comments on this entry are closed.

Previous post:

Next post: