As well as reflection on the year gone by, us humans are suckers for forecasts for the year to come. This is very common in the financial world where analysts and economists prognosticate. Often their calls sound reasonable but in time the story changes and the prediction is usually way of the mark.
One financial shop realises this, none other than Saxo Bank. Saxo doesn’t try to give too much precision to forecasting stockmarkets or exchange rates. Instead it tries to identify some wild ideas that could rock the world. The point isn’t to offer predictive accuracy, it’s half thought-provoking, half publicity-seeking. Indeed Saxo calls them “Outrageous Predictions”. If you’re interested, you can see Saxo’s ideas here.
|Tom looks to the future|
Similarly rather than try to predict the outcome of races or other random events, here are some of my outrageous ideas for 2011:
- Tom Boonen will be back to his best. After injury and minor delusions about time trialling and leaders jerseys, Tomekke will revert to winning classics. The problem here is that this this idea seems outrageous given the passing years, his increasing fragility, the relative weakness of his team and above all, the pressure he has to carry on his Belgian shoulders. He could just as easily retire.
- The investigation into US Postal ends without anything happening. The paper trail required to produce evidence turns up some interesting information but it is not of a standard that will stand up in court.
- A bigger name rider like, say, Ivan Basso will chase the Tour de France King of the Mountains competition after realising that it’s better to take this honour rather than chase a relatively unremarkable spot outside the top-5 on GC. Do you remember who finished 8th in July? Exactly.
- It’s been an open secret that Vinokourov has been enjoying training camps in the presence of a well-know coach and perhaps 2011 will be the year when someone shines a light on the identity of his coach. The final straw for a scandal-ridden team since its inception, his team is blocked from racing and implodes.
- The Vuelta a España announces that it will become a two week race in 2012, citing a need to revitalise the race against a backdrop of economic strife and vanishing budgets.