The big stage in the Pyrenees. The breakaway has a good chance today and the first hour or more should be lively. Those wanting to win the stage will be active and look for teams with GC contenders trying to place riders in the move.
La dépêche du Midi: Baptiste Veistroffer attacked at KM0. Had he read his Dumas and was ready to pay tribute to the Musketeers who came from this region, more so since the logo of Intermarché supermarkets was long a mousquetaire? No, he’s just a breakaway specialist and now he’s no longer able to chaperone Arnaud De Lie what else can they do?
Alpecin-Premiertech and Soudal-Quickstep chased. It was only later when Veistroffer was caught that suddenly many teams appeared on the front of the bunch to set up their sprint. There was a crash with 5.5km to go and towards the front of the bunch, Tim Merlier was ok but most of his lead-out train was derailed. Torsten Træen was among those who fell before the 5km rule applied but he made in back while Jonas Vingegaard was left chasing too.
The bunch was strung out in the streets of Pau. This happened last time in 2024 too, big boulevards but the nervous riders and some kinks in the route made this a hectic final with splits appearing.
In the finishing straight XDS-Astana had their lead-out in place but while Max Kanter was ready to sprint for them, Olav Kooij had got onto his wheel after overtaking a series of riders in the final 1,500m. Kooij seemed to be itching to start his sprint but waited, all while predicted rivals like Philipsen, Girmay and Merlier were several wheels back and not in the match. Kooij went with 200m to go and was well clear for his first Tour stage win.
Pressure relief for Decathlon-CMA CGM? Yes, in part because bringing Kooij to the Tour came at the expense of support for Seixas and had they not got a sprint win they’d face questions. But hopes are still high for more. With Kooij’s performance this could follow.
The Route: 186km and 4,100m of vertical gain. The roads from Pau via Lourdes to Arreau at the foot of the Col d’Aspin are familiar from many past editions of the Tour.
The Aspin is climbed via the harder side, 12km at 6.5%, a gentle average but it’s because it’s got a soft start out of the valley before the hairpins come and then it’s often 7-8%. The descent is more gentle and takes the riders to the foot of the Tourmalet.
The Tourmalet is a brute of a climb, both in difficulty and thanks to the section through La Mongie for the architecture too. It’s a known quantity, there’s no room for surprises. The descent to Luz is fast, with long straight sections which make it harder for a dropped rider to come back as they can’t hope to exploit the corners to work their way back.
The Finish: a gradual climb up a valley. This is the first time the Tour has finished here. There is a steep kick along the way at the Chaos de Coumély – named after a rockfall where boulders line the road – and more than the 6% on the profile above.
Once in the village of Gavarnie the route bends to the right to cross a bridge and then another right turn. Nothing too sharp but if a group arrives worth planning for and it’s flatter.
The Contenders: Tadej Pogačar (UAE) is the obvious base case. If there are attacks on the Tourmalet he might be the one making them as he could set a pace to drop everyone and with his rivals out of team mates he can press on solo. If not, he can win the sprint from a group again. In both cases he’ll hope to take back time on Torstein Træen but keep the Norwegian in yellow as this suits the UAE team for the coming days.
If he comes to the finish with others Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) has a good sprint in a flatter finish. It’s hard to pick other GC contenders, even Tom Pidock (Pinarello-Q36.5) has a good finishing kick but hasn’t looked so sharp yet.
The breakaway has a good chance today and as well as the contenders for the stage and the polka-dot jersey, look for riders from the GC teams to see if they are being placed as potential relay workers. Maxim Van Gils (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) for example could be a useful helper for Remco Evenepoel but if the group stays away he’s handy for the finish.
Lenny Martinez (Bahrain) and Valentin Paret-Peintre (Soudal-Quickstep) are two climbers who will want the mountains points today and can then hope for the stage win. Both are quicker and craftier in a sprint than first glance might suggest. Alex Baudin (EF) is similar except his sprint is less obvious.
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Pogačar, Evenepoel, Martinez |
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V Paret-Peintre, Del Toro, Van Gils, Carapaz |
Weather: sunny and warm at 32°C in the valleys. There’s a risk of clouds building and thunderstorms later on.
TV: KM0 is at 12.40pm and the finish is forecast for 5.30pm CEST. The first hour or more could be frantic as riders and teams try to get away.
Thought it ironic that Robbie McEwan and Sean Kelly were chuntering on about how it was so much safer for the GC riders (being members of the sprinters’ Union they didnt think the GC riders should get in the way of the sprinters 🙂 ) to hang around the back of the peloton in bunch sprint stages. Two minutes later pretty much the entire GC group gets taken out in a crash just before the 5km point towards the rear of the peloton. I assume at the next sprint stage the GC teams will be back at the front until well after the cut off point!
I thought Olav Kooij was reminiscent of Cav today. Surfing the trains and picking the right moment to launch.
I know Tadej Pogacar has form for wanting to ride away when experience says ride conservatively but there is the old saw about the first week “you cant win the Tour today but you can lose it”. The summit of the Tourmalet is 40km from the finish that is a long way to hold off the chasers behind even if 20km of that is downhill, the final climb looks as if there is a benefit from drafting so a group of strongish riders is likely to be able to pull back a single rider, whoever they are. I dont see the benefit of rolling the dice so early in the race, this is stage 5 not 13. I would assume UAE, Visma, Red Bull and Decathlon would be looking to put a rider in the break and with the sprinters looking to contest the intermediate sprint we could see a big break going away maybe with folk like Egan Bernal looking for the stage.
PS Paul = Pau