This year’s edition is harder than ever with fewer stages for the sprinters and more climbing. Here’s a preview including the likely finish times in case you need to set your alarm clock.
Prologue – Tuesday 20 January
Like in 2023 prologue is on road bikes so that teams don’t have to fly out truckloads of supplies for just 3.6km. Unlike 2023 the course is less Mario Kart and more predictable with longer straights and regular corners. In what’s often a close race for GC on the final day this will put seconds between riders on the opening day.
- Finish time 8.30pm – 11.00am CET – 05.00am EST USA
Stage 1 – Wednesday 21 January
Stage 1 goes Tanunda. There is 1500m of climbing, decent for 120km in Janaury but it’s gradual. All the TDU race profiles here are generous with the y-axis, what looks spicy in the graphics is often a regular rise and Mengler’s Hill is a gentle 4% slope for most of the way. Recent visits to Tanunda have all seen a regular sprint finish and this feels even more likely given there’s only one stage left for the sprinters.
- Finish time 2.03pm – 4.33pm CET – 22.32pm EST (D-1)
Stage 2 – Thursday 22 January
The Corkscrew climb is back. This time with an added twist because instead of taking a right turn at the top, it’s straight on towards Ashton and as the profile shows the route keeps on climbing. After a small dip there’s a sustained 7% section along the way but all on a wider road. In the past the Corkscrew summit has been a virtual finish line, get clear of the rest and the stage win and time gains awaited. Now it could be more tactical as there’s more climbing to go. The course won’t surprise any riders given they’ll all recon it and it’s done once mid-stage too. But all this means 3,600m of vertical gain for the day and makes the day harder and more selective still.
- Finish time 3.02pm – 5.32am CET – 23.32 EST
Stage 3 – Friday 23 January
A new finish in Nairne and so a blank canvas as nobody has experience of racing this finish. There’s 2,500m of vertical gain but it should be a sprint stage, especially if the weather is calm. The unmarked climb of Military Road awaits and could see the heavier sprinters in trouble.
- Finish time 2.52pm – 5.22am CET – 23.22 EST
Stage 4 – Saturday 25 January
The classic Willunga stage with a trip to the coast and then racing through the McLaren vineyards. Watch out if the wind is up as riders can be caught out before the final climb. Old Willunga Hill is the key, it’s 3km at an average if 7.5%, a steady gradient and a wide road most of the way and exposed if there’s any wind. It’s a tactical climb, being on the right wheel matters as the speed is so high, the idea is to ride the slipstream of your rival and then strike out as late as possible but before everyone else.
- Finish time 3.39pm – 6.09am CET – 00.09 EST
Stage 5 – Sunday 26 January
Another hilly day, this time 3,500m of vertical gain and relatively long at 170km. This features the regular road to Stirling seen in the past, a finish where Caleb Ewan has won before but also the likes of Diego Ulissi and Jay McCarthy, it rises to the line then drops before kicking up again and timing counts. This time even Ewan in his pomp would struggle given the repeat efforts and distance.
- Finish time 3.26pm – 5.56am CET – 23.56 EST
Comment
Social science academics have an old joke that the set the same exam questions every time because it’s the correct answer that changes each year. The TDU has been similar, the same roads every year but the winner is usually different.
Having complained the race is too scripted and that you rarely need to tune in earlier than 10km to go (see “Tour Done in Under 15 minutes“), the organisers have made the course harder and it could pay to watch more this year. This blog’s rantings probably didn’t provoke the change but it’s more than welcome. The race has had 3-4 sprint finishes in the week, now it’s two at most.
If it’s harder but we’ll see if the script changes. You normally see a rider from the Australian team go up the road to take mountain points early and they’re brought back in time for the action 15 minutes from the finish.
One way to settle questions of whether the race is as fierce as the rest of the World Tour events (Guangxi excluded) is to measure of the intensity of racing with calories consumed per hour as a proxy for this. For all the high energy racing in recent years the TDU has been less energy intensive but that’s changing and it’ll be good to monitor although the temperature can affect this too.
TV: it’s live on Seven for Australians (free streaming, email sign up required) and VPN users looking for English coverage. Eurosport for most of Europe, it’s on Peacock and Flobikes in the US and Canada, J-Sport in Japan. The race website lists more countries.
You might have noted the timings above where Stage 1 is supposed to finish at 2.03pm rather than 2.00pm. Obviously this will vary according to the mood of the peloton and the weather. Any Europeans setting their alarm clocks normally need to wake up 30 minutes before the scheduled time, see how far there is to go and then decide whether to snooze or get up; but with more climbing this time and especially for the last stage it could pay to rise and shine earlier.
The Contenders
As a curtain raiser for the season this often a subtle race with the tactics of a points race on the track as riders making small moves here and there and win overall thanks to time bonuses rather than audacious attacks, and even resorting to countback when tied on the same time. The 2026 edition is harder and should prove more selective.
Jhonatan Navarez (UAE) won last year and has a good chance of repeating, he can win and place on the hilly stages. Team mate Jay Vine is the form pick having won the Australian time trial championships again and while he’s not the first choice for racing finesse, the course here has wide roads which can suit if he gets a gap uphill and has Narvaez sitting on to play the sprint card from a small group. Adam Yates races too.
Finn Fisher-Black (RedBull) was third last year and returns with a strong team. He’s suited to this kind of racing, has enjoyed a summer build-up but is still an infrequent winner.
Javier Romo (Movistar) should have won last year. He took a stage and then while in the ochre jersey, made a solo attack on the middle slopes of Willunga. It was brave but ruinous as he got reeled in and overhauled. His problem is that while he could still barge away he will be marked more.
Jayco-Al Ula have been flame-grilled on the barbie of public opinion in recent days after their men’s performances in the national championships. Ben O’Connor would like much longer climbs but he’s an aggressive rider who will make a go of it. Luke Plapp can place on stages but how to win them outright? Go solo of course but easier said than done. Mauro Schmid is due a big win.
Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto-Intermarché) ought to be made for a course like this but it’s January and form unknown. Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain) will find the hillier course better but he’d like even more climbing. Corbin Strong (NSN) would have been an easier pick in past editions as he could place on sprint stages to take time bonuses, now he’s got to climb more. This is where Matthew Brennan (Visma-LAB) comes in as he has range but similarly Willunga and the Super Corkscrew ought to be too much.
Finally three smokeys in Andrea Bagioli (Lidl-Trek), Simone Velasco (XDS-Astana) and Andreas Kron (Uno-X), the latter suited to uphill finishes he’s been plagued by injury and illness but returns healthy now. The race is open to plenty more but that’s enough names for now…
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Narvaez |
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Fisher-Black |
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Schmid, Van Eetvelt, Brennan |
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Buitrago, Strong, Plapp, O’Connor |
Weather: warm but not infernal, typically 27-32°C in the afternoons with some cloud but the long term forecast suggests it could jump to 39°C on the final day. Typically a 15-20km/h wind from varying directions each day so just a breeze more than a menace or an opportunity.
I may be losing my grip but I think the prologue is on Tuesday etc.
I tried to come up with a line about TRex but failed.