This year’s preview feels too easy to write with the podium finishers from last year set to gather again in Paris, and quite possibly on the same step again. Is July is a fête accomplie?
It’s conceit to establish the hierarchy at the start and hopefully it gets scattered to the wind by sport across the next three weeks.
Route recap
A tricky opening phase with hilly days where the field can split on the climbs and possibly crosswinds, terrain where some of the punchier GC contenders can take time and wins. There’s a 33km flat time trial on Stage 5.
The first big summit finish comes on Stage 12 to Hautacam followed the next day by an 11km mountain time trial. Then come a series of mountain arrivals with Superbagnères, Mont Ventoux, the Col de la Loze and La Plagne. There are 10-6-4 second time bonuses at the finish line. All the stage profiles are on one page at nrng.com/tour
The Contenders
Tadej Pogačar (UAE) is the prime pick. Last year’s winner hasn’t stopped winning, taking one-day classics and stage races alike. His performances in the spring classics show how he can profit from the Tour’s opening week on terrain that his rivals would prefer to avoid. He returns with a strong team keen to propel him to multiple stage wins and a fourth overall win.
His form is convincing, at ease in the Critérium du Dauphiné win where he could attack rivals without having to get out of the saddle, then sit up once he had taken the lead. It all felt like a spoiler for July. His time trial that week was unusual but from the outside looked like an aberration, taking a water bottle for a 17km ride and coasting at times. Tour de Suisse winner João Almeida offers loyal support and could ride to third place, so could Adam Yates who did in 2023 although at the Dauphiné several were missing when the road went upwards.
Pogacar’s instincts and ambition could be his downfall, a temptation to do too much rather than opt for economy, a full classics campaign and then dominating the Dauphiné could mean fatigue but this is Pogačar and not another rider.
Jonas Vingegaard was second last year, impressive after extensive crash injuries in the spring. This year he’s almost unhindered but came up short in the Dauphiné where he was just unable to follow Pogačar in the mountains. He and neutrals hoping for a contest will have hoped he’s narrowed the gap but how to get ahead? He’ll find terrain to suit, there are nine HC climbs and these hour long efforts are his speciality.
Would Visma-LAB settle for second? How much do they want to base their race on securing second place with the unspoken hope that Pogačar cracks, versus what risks are they willing to take even if it means losing second place? The team are strong and can hope to launch an tactical coup or save themselves for a particular day – think the Col du Granon in 2022 – but dislodging Pogačar in the crosswinds won’t be easy. Patience might work, to bide their time. Matteo Jorgenson gives wider options while Simon Yates comes in after collecting the Giro, he’s here for support but knows a thing or two about ambushes.
There’s only been one time when riders on the podium in Paris met again in the same position the following year (1979: Hinault-Zoetemelk-Agostinho). Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quickstep) was third last year and plenty points to a repeat. A lot rides on his climbing performances in the mountains. His form in the Dauphiné is a glass half-full/empty test, better than last year but disappointing. Few expect him to match Pogačar or Vingegaard on a climb so can he keep clear of the rest and stay consistent?
His team is also aiming for sprint wins and doesn’t come with guarantees of support for the high mountains. He can also surprise on the positive, he’s expected to take the time trial but his other weapon is the ability to just ride way, although this is hardest of all in the Tour de France when teams like UAE and Jumbo have their best riders in top condition.
Primož Roglič (RedBull-Bora-hansgrohe) returns That was always the plan but he tried to win the Giro only to crash out so form is unknown. His win in the Tour of Catalunya showed what he can still do. As ever there’s risk, as well as leaving the Giro he’s been DNF in the Tour three times now but the stoic Slovenian has the experience and little to lose.
Team mate Florian Lipowitz booked his place in the Tour with an excellent Dauphiné ride, third overall and second in Paris-Nice and fourth in the Basque Country. He’s still a work-in-progress and prone to exuberant moments but all the better for it. But the Dauphiné was his goal and the Tour could just be a bonus in its wake. Even more under the radar is Aleksandr Vlasov who has been fifth here but generally struggles to put a grand tour together and has had injury issues since crashing out of the Tour last year.
Carlos Rodriguez isn’t delivering results Ineos hoped for when they re-bought him out of a move to Movistar. But he’s still 24 and a promising rider suited to grand tours. The team are backing him and almost come with their old train formation to help with Thyman Arensman, Geraint Thomas and Tobias Foss. He had a quiet Dauphiné but did so too before taking a Tour stage and fifth place in 2023.
Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) has been on a multi-year trajectory with a programme of races including last year’s Vuelta as stepping stones to the Tour now. Only the path has zigged and zagged at times. At his best he’s punchy on climbs and time trials well for a light rider. Illness forced him to skip the Dauphiné, then Suisse but he won new one-day race in Andorra. The others made a mess of the finish rather than him soaring away but he’ll take the confidence boost.
Ben O’Connor had a brilliant 2024 season, but as good as fourth in the Giro and second in the Vuelta were, this didn’t point to going better at the Tour. He’s moved to Jayco and while “at home” on an Aussie team this also means pressure as their marquee rider and he’s had a quieter season. He’s aggressive and this works both ways, see how he took the Vuelta lead thanks to audacity, or it backfired when he tried to follow Pogačar in the Giro and cracked.
Felix Gall (Decatlon-Ag2r) is a great climber with one of the best Vo2 Max scores going, the challenge for him is to get through the first week unscathed as he’s not adept at the hustle and bustle of sprint stages, indeed the hilly days might be even more challenging. His team say stage-hunting is the main aim.
Michael Storer (Tudor) is in a similar place, the proverbial big engine but at risk in the opening days.
Enric Mas (Movistar)? He’s almost a Vuelta specialist lapping France as prep. He’s a good rider but his Vuelta results show he can ride steady to a high GC place but wins are rare. Ivan Romeo will be one to watch quietly too.
What role for Harald Tejada? Given the points hunting we’ll see if XDS-Astana are checking their spreadsheets and deciding between 230 points for 10th place or 220 for a stage win. It’s not so binary and the ambitions of the team will be interesting, do they keep racing the same way or can they gamble more, if only for July?
Fifth in the Dauphiné, Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X) has raised expectations and revived memories of his Tour de l’Avenir win. A top-10 is possible but with the reservation that the Dauphiné suited with some shorter climbs, the repeated hour long efforts are a big test.
On the podium in the Tour de Suisse Oscar Onley is already a one-week stage race contender. But he’s not planning to aim for the GC at the Tour so much and insead has stages picked.
In the last five times he’s reached Paris Guillaume Martin-Guyonnet (Groupama-FDJ) has fared no worse than 13th, but no better than eighth. In some years he’s ground out a result, in others he’s shed time in mishaps only to get the space to attack in the search for lost time. But he’s notable for often starting with the stated intention of a top-10.
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Tadej Pogačar |
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Jonas Vingegaard |
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Evenepoel, Almeida, Roglič |
Any idea on the 3 week weather forecast? Could a continuation of the heatwave affect Pogacar as historically this is his only real weakness.
The weather will be cool with rain showers in the opening few days. But very warm later in the week.
Hard to see beyond that. France looks parched after a heatwave, sunflowers blooming already in the north etc.
I always love to go against the favourite but I have a strong hunch that Pogi may get usurped here. A Vingegaard who punctured a lung, broke a collarbone and several ribs 3 months out from the start line last year was still able to make 2nd place comfortably. I think people are reading too much into the Dauphine, was there some shadowboxing from Pogi in the TT and Jonas in some of the mountain stages? We will see!
The exceedingly hot weather to play a big part too?
Great write-up.
The current extreme heat protocols might meet with resistance at this revenue-first event.
So weather will be just as much in play as fitness going in.
It almost looks like Ineos selected their roster planning for a TTT: Ganna, Foss, Thomas, Swift, Watson & Arensman. That’s great support for Rodriguez on flat or windy stages though he’ll be alone in the high mountains, unless Arensman or Thomas can recover their climbing ability of old.
If TP rides smart and his DS is consistantly smart, he will win. One mistake and JV could slip thru and win.
I look forward the Roglic crashing out again and Lipowitz leading the team.
You look forward to Roglic crashing out? Some cycling fan you are
I was going to write something similar, but you’ve said it for me! (I lost respect for Larry T when he wished a crash on Geraint Thomas, too).
Brilliant writing as always. The Tour wouldn’t be the same without your wise words. Merci
Straws in the wind maybe (or more likely grasping at them!) but Tadej Pogacer was unusually tetchy in media interviews at the Dauphine (no new fangled name!) and UAE dont always seem to have the best race tactics Without wanting more endless polemica, Visma played it perfectly at the Giro whilst UAE got it wrong. I would guess there have never been two such strong teams at the tour, Team Sky were a level above the rest. Difficult to say who is the strongest but I think Visma shade it. WvA is a big plus. Old saw but the race is never won in the first week but it is often lost. Those with GC ambitions would best advised to concentrate on staying safe, not sure if Tadej Pogacer has the patience for that. The risk involved in trying to grab handfuls of seconds on the roads & villages of Northern France far outweighs any long term benefit.
I can see Florian Lipowitz having a shout at the podium especially if Primoz Roglic doesnt manage to stay upright / falls behind in GC.
I hope Geraint Thomas has a good race and makes it to Paris. A truly great career, he could have easily won more GTs – another yellow if not for a storm? assorted police motorbikes and bidons stopping a Giro win, the end of a long chapter for British cycling.
Looking forward to waking up for the next three weeks to the best cycling writing around, hope the hand is better and as ever very grateful for Inrng’s dedication and knowledge.
Thomas could well have won the Tour in 2019 if he’d got himself properly fit and drank less in the off-season. I think he could have beaten a young Bernal fairly easily – Pinot was until he crashed and injured himself.
A lot of his crashes were also his own fault, but not the two you mention. (Riders like Thomas and Roglic crash more often for a reason – bad bike-handling. Yes, they’re brave after they crash, but they also are responsible for many of their crashes.)
Not sure any of the more self inflicted “falling off” episodes stopped G from winning. As to over enthusiastic celebrations, it seems a normal human reaction to winning the tour especially winning on Alpe d ‘Huez whilst wearing Yellow, better that than some of the more robotic behaviour favoured by some others.
I’ll predict a 1-2-3 sweep by UAE – Pogi, Almeda, Yates. And not necessarily in that order. Could be another scenario where a UAE support rider gets up the road and gains the yellow jersey with a good margin and no other team leader is able to close it the rest of the race.
Bold, I keep wondering if the Pogačar certainty is too strong or brittle? The piece was long above but Visma come with a muscular team for the flatter stages, it’s not obvious to take on Pogačar on terrain that suits him more than Vingegaard (see the gravel stage last year) but we’ll see what plans they have. Several flat stages have been designed changes in direction, 10km east then 10km south etc to try and catch the crosswinds.
Yes, even Vingegaard himself is more muscular!
In the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s and 1980s the super-combativity award was regularly won by the GC-riders. Merckx won it four times; Hinault won it three times; Fignon, Ocana, Gaul, Bahamontes and Gimondi have all won it. I think this is the one thing missing from Pogi’s palmares. I think he should go for it.
I think Vingegaard might win. Vingegaard saves himself for one race a year – and often, the Dauphine doesn’t mean much. When he was fit in ’22 and ’23, he dominated. I think he’s more of a ‘pure’ grand tour rider than Pogacar (hence he’s less exciting – but who isn’t), plus he’s better on long climbs.
I’m expecting a slightly diluted version of last year. I think Pogacar will win but not so ridiculously. Vingo is stronger, the terrain suits him more and on paper at least he has an extremely strong team. If Evenepoel rides like he did last year he’ll come third, but you never know with Remco. He could easily have a jour sans at some point. I think there’s more chance of me winning than Roglic.
That is a brilliant pun in the intro.
So looking forward to the next three weeks in your train.
Indeed. A july fête accomplie is classic inrng, thank you.
So much looking forward to the next three weeks of racing in france and superb writing here.
It was alarming to see the differences on the climbs in Dauphiné. I don’t like to look at calculations, estimations etc. but I couldn’t help myself when I noticed a seeming class difference between Pogacar and the rest.
Stage 6, Combloux.
Pogacar drops Vingegaard 7K from the finish.
Pogacar seeming to ride comfortably at 7.2 w/kg(call it his FTP) Estimation by Lanterne Rouge.
Vingegaard doing his best values at 7.0 w/kg (equate it to a 20min test, or 105% of FTP)
Let’s say Pogacar decides to ride HIS best numbers, then he would be at perhaps 7,5 to 7,6 w/kg
That would put the difference closer to 1:30 minutes on a 7km segment.
With that in mind, the Tour will be a formality. Whatever Mauro Gianetti et al. decided to do with Pogacar going from 2023 to 2024 and on, it worked really well. He took a huge step up, and since then he wins at ease.
Maybe. Two points, this was four weeks before they hit the big climbs in this race, much can happen in the meantime (though agree that Tadej Pogacer has seemed to be on another level this season). Secondly, sport can never be simply reduced to watts / numbers etc chance and the human element are equally important.
Good Points.
Agree with the human element.
But if you have a rival who is comfortable when you are in the red, it does matter. I really hope what we have seen doesn’t happen again in the tour. But Pogacar just keeps making ridiculous efforts. It’s almost not even sport anymore
I think we’ll get an idea on how things stand on stage 5’s ITT. If Pogacar and Vingegaard are seperated only by a few seconds then Visma will have their work cut out to come up with a plan in the mountains.