This year’s preview feels too easy to write with the podium finishers from last year set to gather again in Paris, and quite possibly on the same step again. Is July is a fête accomplie?
It’s conceit to establish the hierarchy at the start and hopefully it gets scattered to the wind by sport across the next three weeks.
Route recap
A tricky opening phase with hilly days where the field can split on the climbs and possibly crosswinds, terrain where some of the punchier GC contenders can take time and wins. There’s a 33km flat time trial on Stage 5.
The first big summit finish comes on Stage 12 to Hautacam followed the next day by an 11km mountain time trial. Then come a series of mountain arrivals with Superbagnères, Mont Ventoux, the Col de la Loze and La Plagne. There are 10-6-4 second time bonuses at the finish line. All the stage profiles are on one page at nrng.com/tour
The Contenders
Tadej Pogačar (UAE) is the prime pick. Last year’s winner hasn’t stopped winning, taking one-day classics and stage races alike. His performances in the spring classics show how he can profit from the Tour’s opening week on terrain that his rivals would prefer to avoid. He returns with a strong team keen to propel him to multiple stage wins and a fourth overall win.
His form is convincing, at ease in the Critérium du Dauphiné win where he could attack rivals without having to get out of the saddle, then sit up once he had taken the lead. It all felt like a spoiler for July. His time trial that week was unusual but from the outside looked like an aberration, taking a water bottle for a 17km ride and coasting at times. Tour de Suisse winner João Almeida offers loyal support and could ride to third place, so could Adam Yates who did in 2023 although at the Dauphiné several were missing when the road went upwards.
Pogacar’s instincts and ambition could be his downfall, a temptation to do too much rather than opt for economy, a full classics campaign and then dominating the Dauphiné could mean fatigue but this is Pogačar and not another rider.
Jonas Vingegaard was second last year, impressive after extensive crash injuries in the spring. This year he’s almost unhindered but came up short in the Dauphiné where he was just unable to follow Pogačar in the mountains. He and neutrals hoping for a contest will have hoped he’s narrowed the gap but how to get ahead? He’ll find terrain to suit, there are nine HC climbs and these hour long efforts are his speciality.
Would Visma-LAB settle for second? How much do they want to base their race on securing second place with the unspoken hope that Pogačar cracks, versus what risks are they willing to take even if it means losing second place? The team are strong and can hope to launch an tactical coup or save themselves for a particular day – think the Col du Granon in 2022 – but dislodging Pogačar in the crosswinds won’t be easy. Patience might work, to bide their time. Matteo Jorgenson gives wider options while Simon Yates comes in after collecting the Giro, he’s here for support but knows a thing or two about ambushes.
There’s only been one time when riders on the podium in Paris met again in the same position the following year (1979: Hinault-Zoetemelk-Agostinho). Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quickstep) was third last year and plenty points to a repeat. A lot rides on his climbing performances in the mountains. His form in the Dauphiné is a glass half-full/empty test, better than last year but disappointing. Few expect him to match Pogačar or Vingegaard on a climb so can he keep clear of the rest and stay consistent?
His team is also aiming for sprint wins and doesn’t come with guarantees of support for the high mountains. He can also surprise on the positive, he’s expected to take the time trial but his other weapon is the ability to just ride way, although this is hardest of all in the Tour de France when teams like UAE and Jumbo have their best riders in top condition.
Primož Roglič (RedBull-Bora-hansgrohe) returns That was always the plan but he tried to win the Giro only to crash out so form is unknown. His win in the Tour of Catalunya showed what he can still do. As ever there’s risk, as well as leaving the Giro he’s been DNF in the Tour three times now but the stoic Slovenian has the experience and little to lose.
Team mate Florian Lipowitz booked his place in the Tour with an excellent Dauphiné ride, third overall and second in Paris-Nice and fourth in the Basque Country. He’s still a work-in-progress and prone to exuberant moments but all the better for it. But the Dauphiné was his goal and the Tour could just be a bonus in its wake. Even more under the radar is Aleksandr Vlasov who has been fifth here but generally struggles to put a grand tour together and has had injury issues since crashing out of the Tour last year.
Carlos Rodriguez isn’t delivering results Ineos hoped for when they re-bought him out of a move to Movistar. But he’s still 24 and a promising rider suited to grand tours. The team are backing him and almost come with their old train formation to help with Thyman Arensman, Geraint Thomas and Tobias Foss. He had a quiet Dauphiné but did so too before taking a Tour stage and fifth place in 2023.
Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) has been on a multi-year trajectory with a programme of races including last year’s Vuelta as stepping stones to the Tour now. Only the path has zigged and zagged at times. At his best he’s punchy on climbs and time trials well for a light rider. Illness forced him to skip the Dauphiné, then Suisse but he won new one-day race in Andorra. The others made a mess of the finish rather than him soaring away but he’ll take the confidence boost.
Ben O’Connor had a brilliant 2024 season, but as good as fourth in the Giro and second in the Vuelta were, this didn’t point to going better at the Tour. He’s moved to Jayco and while “at home” on an Aussie team this also means pressure as their marquee rider and he’s had a quieter season. He’s aggressive and this works both ways, see how he took the Vuelta lead thanks to audacity, or it backfired when he tried to follow Pogačar in the Giro and cracked.
Felix Gall (Decatlon-Ag2r) is a great climber with one of the best Vo2 Max scores going, the challenge for him is to get through the first week unscathed as he’s not adept at the hustle and bustle of sprint stages, indeed the hilly days might be even more challenging. His team say stage-hunting is the main aim.
Michael Storer (Tudor) is in a similar place, the proverbial big engine but at risk in the opening days.
Enric Mas (Movistar)? He’s almost a Vuelta specialist lapping France as prep. He’s a good rider but his Vuelta results show he can ride steady to a high GC place but wins are rare. Ivan Romeo will be one to watch quietly too.
What role for Harald Tejada? Given the points hunting we’ll see if XDS-Astana are checking their spreadsheets and deciding between 230 points for 10th place or 220 for a stage win. It’s not so binary and the ambitions of the team will be interesting, do they keep racing the same way or can they gamble more, if only for July?
Fifth in the Dauphiné, Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X) has raised expectations and revived memories of his Tour de l’Avenir win. A top-10 is possible but with the reservation that the Dauphiné suited with some shorter climbs, the repeated hour long efforts are a big test.
On the podium in the Tour de Suisse Oscar Onley is already a one-week stage race contender. But he’s not planning to aim for the GC at the Tour so much and insead has stages picked.
In the last five times he’s reached Paris Guillaume Martin-Guyonnet (Groupama-FDJ) has fared no worse than 13th, but no better than eighth. In some years he’s ground out a result, in others he’s shed time in mishaps only to get the space to attack in the search for lost time. But he’s notable for often starting with the stated intention of a top-10.
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Tadej Pogačar |
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Jonas Vingegaard |
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Evenepoel, Almeida, Roglič |
Any idea on the 3 week weather forecast? Could a continuation of the heatwave affect Pogacar as historically this is his only real weakness.
The weather will be cool with rain showers in the opening few days. But very warm later in the week.
Hard to see beyond that. France looks parched after a heatwave, sunflowers blooming already in the north etc.
I always love to go against the favourite but I have a strong hunch that Pogi may get usurped here. A Vingegaard who punctured a lung, broke a collarbone and several ribs 3 months out from the start line last year was still able to make 2nd place comfortably. I think people are reading too much into the Dauphine, was there some shadowboxing from Pogi in the TT and Jonas in some of the mountain stages? We will see!
The exceedingly hot weather to play a big part too?
Great write-up.
The current extreme heat protocols might meet with resistance at this revenue-first event.
So weather will be just as much in play as fitness going in.
“[JV] 2nd place comfortably”, but still over 6 minutes behind TP.
I share this school of thought. While Pogacar has done a lot to foster recency bias, Vingegaard was very strong in 2022-23, including racing a truly outstanding time trial.
Pogacar, as good as he is, has raced a very demanding classics season, while Vingegaard is probably still building from the Dauphine. I prefer VLaB over UAE for week one, and think this could be a closer race than many are expecting.
Sadly, I also think there’s about a big chance the chaos of the first week, and especially the first stage, could severely impact on some of the GC contenders, including Pogacar and Vingegaard. Let’s hope not, but it’ll be madness at times.
It almost looks like Ineos selected their roster planning for a TTT: Ganna, Foss, Thomas, Swift, Watson & Arensman. That’s great support for Rodriguez on flat or windy stages though he’ll be alone in the high mountains, unless Arensman or Thomas can recover their climbing ability of old.
If TP rides smart and his DS is consistantly smart, he will win. One mistake and JV could slip thru and win.
I look forward the Roglic crashing out again and Lipowitz leading the team.
You look forward to Roglic crashing out? Some cycling fan you are
I was going to write something similar, but you’ve said it for me! (I lost respect for Larry T when he wished a crash on Geraint Thomas, too).
I hope that’s a comment lost in translation but if not i think it’s disgraceful.
I look forward to Roglic having a good Tour. There, fixed it for you
Brilliant writing as always. The Tour wouldn’t be the same without your wise words. Merci
Straws in the wind maybe (or more likely grasping at them!) but Tadej Pogacer was unusually tetchy in media interviews at the Dauphine (no new fangled name!) and UAE dont always seem to have the best race tactics Without wanting more endless polemica, Visma played it perfectly at the Giro whilst UAE got it wrong. I would guess there have never been two such strong teams at the tour, Team Sky were a level above the rest. Difficult to say who is the strongest but I think Visma shade it. WvA is a big plus. Old saw but the race is never won in the first week but it is often lost. Those with GC ambitions would best advised to concentrate on staying safe, not sure if Tadej Pogacer has the patience for that. The risk involved in trying to grab handfuls of seconds on the roads & villages of Northern France far outweighs any long term benefit.
I can see Florian Lipowitz having a shout at the podium especially if Primoz Roglic doesnt manage to stay upright / falls behind in GC.
I hope Geraint Thomas has a good race and makes it to Paris. A truly great career, he could have easily won more GTs – another yellow if not for a storm? assorted police motorbikes and bidons stopping a Giro win, the end of a long chapter for British cycling.
Looking forward to waking up for the next three weeks to the best cycling writing around, hope the hand is better and as ever very grateful for Inrng’s dedication and knowledge.
Thomas could well have won the Tour in 2019 if he’d got himself properly fit and drank less in the off-season. I think he could have beaten a young Bernal fairly easily – Pinot was until he crashed and injured himself.
A lot of his crashes were also his own fault, but not the two you mention. (Riders like Thomas and Roglic crash more often for a reason – bad bike-handling. Yes, they’re brave after they crash, but they also are responsible for many of their crashes.)
Not sure any of the more self inflicted “falling off” episodes stopped G from winning. As to over enthusiastic celebrations, it seems a normal human reaction to winning the tour especially winning on Alpe d ‘Huez whilst wearing Yellow, better that than some of the more robotic behaviour favoured by some others.
I’ll predict a 1-2-3 sweep by UAE – Pogi, Almeda, Yates. And not necessarily in that order. Could be another scenario where a UAE support rider gets up the road and gains the yellow jersey with a good margin and no other team leader is able to close it the rest of the race.
Bold, I keep wondering if the Pogačar certainty is too strong or brittle? The piece was long above but Visma come with a muscular team for the flatter stages, it’s not obvious to take on Pogačar on terrain that suits him more than Vingegaard (see the gravel stage last year) but we’ll see what plans they have. Several flat stages have been designed changes in direction, 10km east then 10km south etc to try and catch the crosswinds.
Yes, even Vingegaard himself is more muscular!
I think the 1st stage prove the insight of this reply. JV didn’t shake TP but they tried and Ving was pulling hard and taking strong turns.
When’s the last time a team swept the podium in the Tour? Not the Vuelta, but the Tour?
Zero chance, according to my opinion.
In the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s and 1980s the super-combativity award was regularly won by the GC-riders. Merckx won it four times; Hinault won it three times; Fignon, Ocana, Gaul, Bahamontes and Gimondi have all won it. I think this is the one thing missing from Pogi’s palmares. I think he should go for it.
I think the last Tour winner to also win this award was Hinault over 40 years ago and when it was points-based. It’s been a subjective award for years now and won’t be awarded to the race winner.
If Pogacar has any interest in this award (which I strongly doubt, has he ever even mentioned it?) the only way he’d get it would be as a consolation prize if he falls out of GC and keeps unsuccessfully trying to attack his way back into it.
I think Vingegaard might win. Vingegaard saves himself for one race a year – and often, the Dauphine doesn’t mean much. When he was fit in ’22 and ’23, he dominated. I think he’s more of a ‘pure’ grand tour rider than Pogacar (hence he’s less exciting – but who isn’t), plus he’s better on long climbs.
I’m expecting a slightly diluted version of last year. I think Pogacar will win but not so ridiculously. Vingo is stronger, the terrain suits him more and on paper at least he has an extremely strong team. If Evenepoel rides like he did last year he’ll come third, but you never know with Remco. He could easily have a jour sans at some point. I think there’s more chance of me winning than Roglic.
NB. Roglic and the team say they are aiming for a podium finish. Even that will be difficult.
That is a brilliant pun in the intro.
So looking forward to the next three weeks in your train.
Indeed. A july fête accomplie is classic inrng, thank you.
So much looking forward to the next three weeks of racing in france and superb writing here.
It was alarming to see the differences on the climbs in Dauphiné. I don’t like to look at calculations, estimations etc. but I couldn’t help myself when I noticed a seeming class difference between Pogacar and the rest.
Stage 6, Combloux.
Pogacar drops Vingegaard 7K from the finish.
Pogacar seeming to ride comfortably at 7.2 w/kg(call it his FTP) Estimation by Lanterne Rouge.
Vingegaard doing his best values at 7.0 w/kg (equate it to a 20min test, or 105% of FTP)
Let’s say Pogacar decides to ride HIS best numbers, then he would be at perhaps 7,5 to 7,6 w/kg
That would put the difference closer to 1:30 minutes on a 7km segment.
With that in mind, the Tour will be a formality. Whatever Mauro Gianetti et al. decided to do with Pogacar going from 2023 to 2024 and on, it worked really well. He took a huge step up, and since then he wins at ease.
Maybe. Two points, this was four weeks before they hit the big climbs in this race, much can happen in the meantime (though agree that Tadej Pogacer has seemed to be on another level this season). Secondly, sport can never be simply reduced to watts / numbers etc chance and the human element are equally important.
Good Points.
Agree with the human element.
But if you have a rival who is comfortable when you are in the red, it does matter. I really hope what we have seen doesn’t happen again in the tour. But Pogacar just keeps making ridiculous efforts. It’s almost not even sport anymore
I’m with Watts. (Although be warned – people go mad with numbers, almost as much as when you mention F1 in the same breath as cycling, so you’re asking for trouble with that post Watts!)
But we don’t need the numbers? It was pretty obvious what we saw at the Dauphine, and has been the same for a long time now. Pog clearly has an extra gear and numbers or no numbers this has been true of most repeat winners in every Tour De France rivalry going way back – as Watts says, life’s easier if you can be comfortable when putting the competition in the red.
We can talk about the human element and mistakes/crashes/illness plus the fallibility of content creators estimating w/kg – but even so if you look back at Tour De France history simply having more power generally wins out more often than not, whether we were able to put numbers to it or not: see Indurain, Lemond, Hinault, Merckx, Anquetil and many more.
Pog is just the latest in a long line of generational talents but we shouldn’t take for granted the special times his rivalry with Jonas has already given us, we’re lucky to have them even if it does look like Pog has taken the definitive step.
Here’s hoping for some surprises and rip roaring contest though!
Can’t wait for tomorrow.
Fingers crossed for an era defining clash between P&V!!
It’s a lot of z2 I’ve heard. Who needs rest.
I think we’ll get an idea on how things stand on stage 5’s ITT. If Pogacar and Vingegaard are seperated only by a few seconds then Visma will have their work cut out to come up with a plan in the mountains.
I’ve probably said it before in the comments, but I find it difficult to tally Evenepoel’s brilliance in time trials with his apparent weakness in 40 min – 1 hour climbs (when compared to the best) when the efforts are very similar. He’s lighter than Pog so there should be no W/kg disadvantage. Is he really *that* aero that he can TT as well as an 80 kg Ganna on a flat course, but somehow lacks the power for a long climb?
re Oscar Olney.
****forgive a very British centric post.****
Was just thinking this is quite a big Tour for him?
If Brailsford is back at Ineos with has some Total E cash could Olney put himself on the GC radar at this Tour with strong ride?
He’s only 22, just finished 3rd at Suisse (best young rider result since Bernal and obvs a long time before) plus he kept up with a peak form Almeida on a mountain stage, was 3rd in uphill TT and was also 9th in Basque Country (not far off Lipowiscz/Skeljmose who are a few years older and ahead of Isaac Del Toro).
If you look at last year he’s improved noticeably at both Basque and Suisse (19to9, 8to3), so you’d expect he has the ability to do similar on his 39th at last year’s Tour? Maybe even Top10 with some luck, if he isn’t only stage hunting.
Basically feels like a good moment to decide: is he a puncheur or a GC rider?
He’s won on Willunga so could go Porte’s way or end up being somewhere between Kwiatowski/Kragh Anderson but it’s probably worth noting in the Tour of Poland TT last year he was only 4seconds off Vingegaard so he might have a decent TT in him?
It’s funny moment for Ineos but if they go back to British there’s suddenly a serious crop of young talent, most of which are outside their stable bizarrely – but imagine these riders on one team in the future:
Onley (22, results as above)
Brennan (19, nxt WVA it seems)
Tarling (21, obvs 2nd best TT already)
Tulet (23, 12th at Dauphine and still misses Tour)
Gloag (23, hopefully makes it back post injury…)
Askey (24, having a great season)
Pickering (22, 13th at Suisse)
Watson (23, just won 4daysdunkirk)
Poole (23, just came 11th at Giro)
Also Joe Blackmore, Sebastian Grindley, Bjorn Koert and Lucas Nurerkar.
Although as every knows there’s so much young talent around currently, even if it’s hard to see anyone reaching Pogacar in the near future…
Paul Sexias (18, Decathlon)
Jan Christen (21, UAE)
Del Toro (21, UAE)
Martinez (21, Bahrain)
Ayuso (22, UAE)
Uijtdebroeks (22, Visma – having a nightmare but still young)
Van Eetvelt (23, Lotto)
Fisher Black (23, Red Bull)
Skejlmose (24, Trek)
Rodriguez (only 24 still, Ineos)
Lipowitz (24, Red Bull)
Castrillo (24, Movistar)
Vauquelin (24, Arkea>Visma)
Jorgenson (25, Visma)
I guess the smart money is on Sexias – who has to be one of the great names to come out of a sport where we spend a very healthy amount of time staring at riders derrières.
I hope Jake Stewart doesn’t read this…..he’ll be wondering what he has to do to get on your young Brit talent list 😉
Did you mean Paul Seixas…?
He probably has more inside information than we are privy to.
😂
Bugger I wrote that late and was so surprised when I read SEXIAS out loud it made me very happy and I had to write…
Alas – too good to be true unfortunately! SEIXAS it is.
But he’ll always be SexyAss in my heart.
It’s funny to me that, of pog didn’t exist, Vingegaard would have won the last 3 tours in a row in dominant fashion, including one after a miraculous comeback. We’d probably hail him as the goat tdf rider, only arguing over whether he’d bag 8, 9, or 10.
Instead we do have Pog so we instead ask how many Hail Marys Vingegaard has to complete to have a chance of victory.
Same as it ever was really.
If not for Eddy Merckx, Felice Gimondi may have been the first Merckx, and Zoetemelk the second.
But for his knee injuries Hinault may have won eight. If not for his own Fignon may have won five. Lemond surely would have won five had he not been shot.
Ullrich and Bernal were both widely touted to win at least five each, and Froome may have won six but for Wiggins and his own crash.
Sadly many of the above didn’t achieve their potential due to crashes and/or injury. I just hope Pogacar and Vingegaard aren’t similarly (further) derailed, but every time I hear Pogacar heralded as the certain winner I consider the above and wonder whether fate in whatever form will again confound expectations.
Why would anybody “hail him as the goat tdf rider”, for winning 3 Tours in a boring manner?Nobody is a GOAT for winning some TdF, there’s way more into that. Eell, maybe for those who only follow the Tor, that Generation Unchained. And if netflix call someone a “goat” it has to be so. Bollocks
No Froome, no Lance or any will ever be a goatworthy rider
Looked to me as if Tadej took a more conservative approach to the Dauphine, riding into the week rather than smashing it from the start and easing off in the mountains and ‘merely’ maintaining his gap to his rival. Perhaps with age his tactics are maturing and his patience is growing. Can’t wait.
Yes, I think Pogacar is taking a more measured approach this year. I really think that he can only be beaten by Miss Fortune this year.
Could be Roglic’s last Tour as leader so I hope he manages to keep himself vertical and do justice to whatever his form is. He blazed a trail for the Slovenians and now they have produced the winner of the Giro Next Gen.
I’m surprised we’re still no closer to seeing the monopoly of the ‘big 2’ challenged. After a surge of seemingly supernatural talent around the end of the 2010s the conveyer belt seems to have stopped again. I thought at the time it was due to changes in training or that cycling was becoming more attractive as an elite sport, but now it seems like it was just a case of 4 or 5 buses all arriving at once.