The Tour de France starts with the yellow jersey awaiting the sprinters for the first time since 2020. Light crosswinds are forecast which could just be sufficient to split the peloton too.
The Route: 184km and 1,150m of vertical gain. Welcome to the Hauts-de-France region, literally the “heights of France”, whose highest point is actually hard to determine, a rabbit hole with various claims around 300m. The point is it’s flat despite the name and sprint stage.
There are plenty of familiar roads here from the Four Days of Dunkerque race and other races on the French calendar like the GP d’Isbergues and the GP de Lilliers.
The first marked climb of the day is by the Notre Dame de Lorette war cemetery and notable for the race because of the narrow road up, a pinch point. By itself it’s a small climb 135km from the finish but it’s the Tour and nobody wants to get caught out so it’s a stress point.
Mont Cassel is easier, climbed via the gentler main road rather than the scenic Porte d’Aire, but cobbled and probably the hardest pavé of the day, more of which below. The Mont des Cats is a real climb but Mont Noir is harder and so gets the next rating and both lie right on the Belgian border.
The climbs are notable features, for the racing there are also many changes in direction and roundabouts. Rather than list every micro-feature, note the passage through and beyond Armentières has some potentially hectic points.
The Finish: big boulevards in Lille and flat. Just before 2km to go the route turns left into a narrower road, this is relative but just means a bit less space. Then with 1.5km go to it’s left again onto a big finishing straight.
The Contenders: Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quickstep), Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) and Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) are the obvious picks, each has a convincing case to win but none are head of each other in part because they’re all just beatable. There’s no dominant sprinter in the sport although Jonathan Milan is here to state his case.
In a second wave of there’s Dylan Groewegen (Jayco) who can still win but he’s 32 and success in World Tour sprints is fading. Jordi Meeus (Redbull-Bora-Hansgrohe) is in form and has Danny Van Poppel for his leadout which counts. Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) is worth watching to see if he can find the form of 2024, this time a year ago nobody saw him as obvious pick for the first sprint stage either.
There are more riders in a third wave who might not have the speed to win a straight bunch sprint. Among them Wout van Aert (Visma-LAB) who could still profit if things split in the crosswinds.
 |
Merlier, Milan |
 |
Philipsen |
 |
Meeus, Groenewegen |
Weather: the heatwave that has dessicated France has gone. In comes 21°C, clouds and the chance of rain, more likely in the evening.
The key factor today is the wind, 25km/h from the SW. As a rule of thumb 30km/h is the magic number for crosswind action but 25km/h is close and it’ll gust to more. Crucially the course has plenty of exposed points, whether just open flat roads but also some ridges between Mont Cassel and Bailleul. Plus it’s the Tour where a 15-20km/h breeze has managers stressing, it can be self-perpetuating.
TV: KM0 is at 13.10 and the finish is forecast for 5.40pm CEST. As the opening stage it’s a stressful day and events can happen but with four Saturdays and more of racing, it’s probably safe to ration things and tune in for the finish. Mont Cassel is around 4.00pm.
Postcard from Lille
We’re in Lille and the next town is Roubaix. With flat stages for the grand départ some will be wondering why no Paris-Roubaix pavé? You can imagine the temptation for the organisers, excitement would be exponential plus it promotes their spring classic to a wider audience.
Just as the fear of something going wrong is what lures in audiences, it would keep organisers awake as much as team managers. With rider safety a big topic, sending the Tour peloton onto the pavé was deemed too much.
Philippe Sudres was the Tour de France’s press and public relations chief for decades. He remarked that “a good Tour is one that starts well”. This has become a mantra with organisers ASO.
Lille is hosting the race and wants good news rather than journalists doing pieces to camera outside the university hospital. Crashes can always happen, but if it was on the pavé you can imagine the blame game. An opening weekend without polémique is better.
The race itself is sufficient spectacle and but if Tour race returns to the region for an ordinary stage or two, just as we saw in 2022 after Copenhagen, then expect some pavé.
So few teams have a realistic chance in a bunch sprint wouldn’t a mass breakaway make more sense for many. An example is FDJ but their sprinter is Penhoet and what real chance does he have? Others are IPT with Ackerman and Ineos with Watson.
Meanwhile four time winner Froome isn’t in Siberia but in Sibiu. A sad way for a distinguished career to peter out.
Several big teams have a shared interest in a bunch sprint, and the same teams like Lidl-Trek and Alpecin could happily split things in the wind too. So could Visma, eyes on them in case of a coup on the opening day.
Unlikely the sprinters teams would allow a mass break to go and GC teams certainly would not be interested in chasing.
As for Froome, IPT have won the first two stages in Sibiu, he could have contributed to these wins. What is sad is the horrific injuries he suffered that led to this situation.
I think Merlier will win and that there will be a crash that will take out someone with GC aspirations.
Thanks InrRng! I suspect that we all now have plans for the next few weeks. Hopefully ITV online doesn’t let us down too much. Even though those other UK based folks are still watching tennis and whatever other sport.
They are spending a lot of time in a relatively small corner of France.
They pay to host the start here so get the long weekend of stages. The riders get the same hotel for several days (most arrived on Wednesday).
An “Adelaide du Nord” then.
Oh to be back, and for the last time on free to air, which is a disaster for the sport.
I have fond memories of Lille, African sausages and belgium beer before Museeuws win in a muddy Roubaix. More recently a free zoo, great as a post North Sea ferry activity with the kids and a very nice patisserie which claims to be the world’s 1st.
Being English it feels a little more Dutch than French, but I don’t want to upset anyone with such statements. Van Reysel?
Anyway who will win? I don’t care. I want attacking riding, panache. Today I guess AgDR have home roads and maybe the Dutch teams. But a sprint for sure.
Vive le Tour and thanks for the blog.
Agreed, it’s a real shame that le TDF will no longer be shown in the UK but that’s the decision made by ASO.
It’s not ASO’s decision. Why would they say no to showing their race to a mass audience in a large country? That would not make sense.
Instead the local TV channel that has shown the race has dropped it and there are no other bidders.
Not quite, ITV4 didn’t have the money to compete with WB, so decided not to engage in a bidding war.
It’s a very sad situation the final, as it stands UK free to air TDF. Its always down to money possibly driven by greed for max profits, the way the world seems to have gone more over the years.
Hopefully it’ll be a great edition and who knows maybe it’ll become free to view again sometime?
There are two deals. One is the main EBU deal, which is for the mainstream and public TV channels etc of which ITV is a member; then there’s a sub-deal which is Warner/Eurosport pays to have the race as well, they don’t rival each other, eg FranceTV gets the Tour as does Eurosport in France.
ITV just declined the rights, and fellow member BBC didn’t want to take it either, leaving Warner (branded as TNT) with exclusivity via the sub-deal.
Having already screwed over UK cycling viewers by massively increasing the subscription, TNT Sports is now making our lives even worse by not having an ad free option for the Tour. The whole point of paying for Eurosport/Discovery+/TNT Sports for the month of the Tour rather than watching for free on ITV has been to not have to sit through 3 weeks of ads. I suppose now the competition from ITV is about to end TNT think they can do whatever the heck they want because the viewers won’t have any other option.
Don’t you think Merlier has the worst sprint train of all sprinter favourites?
Smaller yes but Eenkhoorn and especially Van Lerberghe are useful. They might miss an extra rider to help tow them out of trouble in the 3km to 1km place but they’ll have to adapt.
I should do a blog post about it but sprint trains have changed, they’re not as long with one rider peeling off to leave five more, it’s more dynamic and opportunistic, and sometimes the big trains leave it late before deploying, rushing up in the final 1,500m.
Great analysis as always!